U.S. HIV Cases 40% Higher Than Estimated

Officials Say Better Tests, Statistics Are Basis For Higher Infection Numbers

(CBS/AP)  The number of Americans infected by the AIDS virus each year is much higher than the government has been estimating, U.S. health officials are expected to report Sunday, acknowledging that their numbers have understated the level of the epidemic.

The country had roughly 56,300 new HIV infections in 2006 - a dramatic increase from the 40,000 annual estimate used for the last dozen years. The new figure is due to a better blood test and new statistical methods, and not a worsening of the epidemic, officials said.

But it likely will refocus U.S. attention from the effect of AIDS overseas to what the disease is doing to this country, said public health researchers and officials.

"This is the biggest news for public health and HIV/AIDS that we've had in a while," said Julie Scofield, executive director of the National Alliance of State and Territorial AIDS Directors.

The revised estimate by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the methodology behind it were to be presented Sunday, the opening day of the international AIDS conference in Mexico City.

"We do have an epidemic in the United States - an epidemic that is more than 50,000, ravaging gay and minority communities," Dr. Kevin Fenton of the CDC told CBS News.

Since AIDS first surfaced in 1981, health officials have struggled to estimate how many people are infected each year. It can take a decade or more for an infection to cause symptoms and illness.

One expert likened the new estimate to adding a good speedometer to a car. Scientists had a good general idea of where the epidemic was going; this provides a better understanding of how fast it's moving right now.

"This puts a key part of the dashboard in place," said the expert, David Holtgrave of Johns Hopkins University.

Based on the new calculations, officials believe annual HIV infections have been hovering around 55,000 for several years.

"This is the most reliable estimate we've had since the beginning of the epidemic," said Dr. Julie Gerberding, the CDC's director. She said other countries may adopt the agency's methodology.

According to current estimates, around 1.1 million Americans are living with the AIDS virus. Officials plan to update that number with the new calculations, but don't think it will change dramatically, a CDC spokeswoman said.

The new infection estimate is based on a blood test that for the first time can tell how recently an HIV infection occurred.

Past tests could only detect the presence of HIV, so determining which year an infection took place was guesswork - guesswork upon which the old 40,000 estimate was based.

The new estimate relies on blood tests from 22 states where health officials have been using a new HIV testing method that can distinguish infections that occurred within the last five months from those that were older.

The improved science will allow more real-time monitoring of HIV infections. Now, CDC officials say, the estimate will likely be updated every year.

Yearly estimates allow better recognition of trends in the U.S. epidemic. For example, the new report found that infections are falling among heterosexuals and injection drug users.

Some experts celebrated that finding, saying it's a tribute to prevention efforts, including nearly 200 syringe exchange programs now operating in 36 states despite a federal ban on funding for such projects.

But they also lamented the CDC's finding that infections continue to increase in gay and bisexual men, who accounted for more than half of HIV infections in 2006. Also, more than a third of those with HIV are younger than 30.

Some advocates say that suggests a need for more prevention efforts, particularly targeting younger gay and bisexual men.

For years, AIDS was considered a terrifying death sentence, and since 1981, more than half a million Americans have died. But medicines that became available in the 1990s turned it into a manageable chronic condition for many Americans, and attention shifted to Africa and other parts of the world.

Last week, President George W. Bush signed a $48 billion global AIDS bill to continue a program that he called "the largest commitment by any nation to combat a single disease in human history."

But some advocates complain that CDC's annual spending on HIV prevention in the United States has been held to roughly $700 million since 2001, while costs have risen. (That's about 3 percent of what the federal government spends on AIDS; much of the rest is on medicines, health care and research.)

The new estimate is "evidence of a failure by government and society to do what it takes to control the epidemic," said Julie Davids, executive director of the Community HIV/AIDS Mobilization Project.

Whether more funding comes or not, the revised estimate clearly is a "wake-up call to scale things up," said Dr. Kevin Fenton, who oversees CDC's prevention efforts for HIV/AIDS.

Some said more attention needs to focus on prevention among blacks, who account for nearly half of annual HIV infections, according to the new CDC report.

A recent report by the Black AIDS Institute concluded that if black Americans were their own nation, they would rank 16th in the world in the number of people living with HIV.

"We have been inadequately funding this epidemic all along. We need to step it up," said former U.S. Surgeon General Dr. David Satcher, who is now an administrator at Atlanta's Morehouse School of Medicine.

The new estimate has been anticipated for a long time. The CDC began working on the new methods nearly seven years ago.

Late last year, advocates said they had heard the figure was about 55,000 and pressed the CDC to release it. Agency officials declined, saying they were submitting their research for medical journal review.

"These are extremely complicated statistical methods," and CDC officials wanted the work to be thoroughly reviewed by outside experts, Gerberding said. CDC's findings are being published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

[shippg]

This disease can be wiped out in a generation, but it will take personal sacrifice. The affected population is not into sacrifice, however, but gratification.

[xmanborg]

Its called being safe and dont trust anybody and stick with one person or dont have a relationship that involves sexxx.

[gramto7]

My younger daughter was infected by her exhusband. We found out after they were married that he was bisexual when he was arrested in a public restroom doing a little more than foot-tapping. That was 15 years ago. Thanks to HIV meds, her Tcell count is within normal range and her viral load is nondetectable. With the medical knowledge available, I have four very beautiful grandchildren that are all HIV negative.

[honestabe8]

"Quit AIDS funding and assistance exept for victims of rape and babies born with AIDS/HIV for example, people who of no choice of their own acquired it" Why stop there? Quit funding assistance of people who have any disease they acquired through any bad habit...smoking? too bad...heart disease from too many cheeseburgers? life''s a drag....bad liver from drinking? get over it...

[juwboy]

OneWorldUSA asked:

"Has anyone ever discovered homosexulaity in mammals other than humans?"

The answer is "Yes".

I suggest that you learn how to use Google.

[oneworldusa]

Question:

Someone brought up something about sheep earlier.

Has anyone ever discovered homosexuality in mammals other than humans? I don''t believe I''ve ever seen a study on this.

[oneworldusa]

Quit AIDS funding and assistance exept for victims of rape and babies born with AIDS/HIV for example, people who of no choice of their own acquired it.

If people keep their Cheneys in their pants and don''t participate in illegal drug activities, AIDS would not continue at the rate it is.

Time to stop supporting these drug abusers and s-e-x addicts at the cost of American taxpayers.

[wl7bzh]

Could this epidemic support the concept of "survival of the fittest"? A possible mental defect exists which results in self-destructive behavior?

[hbevis]

I have read of some studies that say that there has been something found in the Brain of people that makes them GAY.. The only trouble is that the Doctors that make these studies have all been Gay.. So you don''t really know what to believe.. Maybe one day something will be found to help these people forget the same *** thing..

[nothappyatall]

It is estimated that as many as 8-10% of rams exhibit a s3xual partner preference for other males, classifying them as male-oriented rams. Studies have failed to identify any compelling social factors that can predict or explain the variations in s3xual partner preferences of rams.

Nor is there consensus on the endocrine and sensory responsiveness of male-oriented rams to other rams. However, a number of studies have reported differences in brain structure and function between male-oriented and female-oriented rams, suggesting that s3xual partner preferences are neurologically hard-wired. Recently, we identified a sexually dimorphic nucleus (oSDN) in the sheep preoptic area-anterior hypothalamus. The oSDN is larger in female-oriented rams than in male-oriented rams and similar in size in male-oriented rams and ewes. In addition, mRNA levels for aromatase in the oSDN were higher in males than in females and were higher in female-oriented rams than in male-oriented rams. These results suggest a relationship between steroid hormones, specifically estrogens and oSDN morphology. In this review, we provide an overview of sexual behavior in rams and discuss the multiple factors that may contribute to the development and adult expression of same-s3x partner preferences in rams.

[nothappyatall]

Why so many gay rams? Is it too much socializing with ewes? Same-s3x play with other lambs? Domestication? Nope. Those theories have been debunked. Gay rams don''t act girly. They''re just as gay in the wild. And a crucial part of their brains%u2014the "s3xually dimorphic nucleus"%u2014looks more like a ewe''s than like a straight ram''s. Gay men have a similar brain resemblance to women. Charles Roselli, the project''s lead scientist, says such research "strongly suggests that s3xual preference is biologically determined in animals, and possibly in humans.

[nothappyatall]

"Homosexuality is not purely genetic. Environmental factors play a role. There is not a single master gene that makes people gay.
The media has sensationalized and perpetuated the myth of a homosexual gene."

Posted by Gaye5

Ahem, first of all, no single gene will be found that does ONE thing, genetics is complex and there are recessives and dominant genes, some require several others which, if one is not there doesnt express the particular trait.
Secondly, research on rams who preferred to mount other rams and ignored ewes found differences in their BRAIN in a certain area, it was conducted at the request of ranchers who paid thousands for breeding rams only to find some didnt want to breed ewes at all.
physiol Behav. 2004 Nov 15;83(2):233-45.
S3xual partner preference, hypothalamic morphology and aromatase in rams.

Roselli CE, Larkin K, Schrunk JM, Stormshak F.

Department of Physiology and Pharmacology L334, Oregon Health and Science University, 3181 SW Sam Jackson Park Road, Portland, OR 97239-3098, USA. [e-mail]

The male-oriented ram is a unique and valuable animal model for the study of hormonal, developmental and genetic contributions to s3xual partner preference. Unlike most other mammalian models that are in use currently, variations in s3xual attraction occur spontaneously in domestic ram populations.

[nothappyatall]

Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918-20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis.

Murray CJ, Lopez AD, Chin B, Feehan D, Hill KH.


Extrapolation of 1918-20 mortality rates to the worldwide population of 2004 indicates that an estimated 62 million people (10th-90th percentile range 51 million-81 million) would be killed by a similar influenza pandemic; 96% (95% CI 95-98) of these deaths would occur in the developing world. If this mortality were concentrated in a single year, it would increase global mortality by 114%.

INTERPRETATION: This analysis of the empirical record of the 1918-20 pandemic provides a plausible upper bound on pandemic mortality. Most deaths will occur in poor countries--ie, in societies whose scarce health resources are already stretched by existing health priorities.

[nothappyatall]

Just get a good dog or other animal, they don''t carry HIV or any human STD''s, no risk of pregnancy either.

The problem is people are FILTHY creatures, this isn''t about 3ex it''s about people coming in contact, you can get seriously sick and DIE of many diseases simply breathing the same air in the elevator that someone sneezed in a few minutes before or touching a DOORKNOB a sick person touched.
The flu is highly contageous and can be FATAL, it far exceeds AIDS, these are actual DEATHS not simply ''infections'';

Simonsen et al. estimated that influenza caused approximately 21,000 deaths per year in the United States for the period 1972%u20131992.

In a recent paper, Thompson et al. (11Go) introduced a new approach for estimating deaths attributable to influenza: They fit a regression model to death time series that combined a sinusoidal function with weekly virologic surveillance data from the United States. They attributed an average of 34,000 deaths per year to influenza for the period 1976%u20131999, consistent with the 37,500 deaths per year estimated by Serfling-type models for this period

[barbaraf4]

The successful approach to protecting yourself from AIDS/HIV is to assume all potential partners are infected. Protect yourself. If you are about to have s*e*x with someone who refuses to use a condom, then just say "no" and go home.

If you meet someone you plan to be with for a while, then both of you get an AIDS/HIV test before having protected s*e*x.

Just remember a negative test is valid only for the exact moment your blood was drawn.

Respect yourself, protect yourself. Live to be 100 years old.

[haoli25]

I will fight for the right of every G A Y person and drug user to have their name on a quilt!

[puzzler125]

Think twice before you sleep with that person you haven''t known long. His closest friends know you are the fifth woman he''s slept with since last summer and that he does not practice safe ***. Why are so many people so foolish when it comes to safe ***? Looking around the city of Dayton it is quite apparent, by the sheer number of pregnant teenagers I see, that abstinence is not working at preventing pregnancies so obviously it is not preventing HIV transmission either.

[lovesamerica]

All I know is that he says he tells people, everyone I know ,knows he has it. what am I supposed to do. I do not run in the same circles as him. And I had a feeling that would be asked, but the fact is people need to be aware.

[jdubs63]

lovesamerica............. and WHAT are you DOING when you know this friend who has HIV and continues to have ***? you feel NO guilt for knowing this?

[ericconn2]

Two words: *** education. But it doesn''t happen as much in schools as it should. Sticking to abstinence as a supposed contraception method doesn''t seem to be working, as this article can attest to (1/3 are under 30). It''s far from *stupid selfish ignorance* when you''re never told what you have to protect yourself from.