Economy Still First In Voters' Minds

CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: The Economy Has The Same Importance It Had In 1992

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

---

Back in 1992, when Americans were asked to name the “most important problem facing the country today,” 55 percent volunteered something in the realm of economics: 14 percent named unemployment, 11 percent the budget deficit and 2 percent taxes, while another 28 percent just said it was the “economy.”

Times improved in the 1990s, and after the 9/11 attack and the war in Iraq, foreign policy concerns took center stage as the economy receded as the “most important problem.” As recently as January 2007, just eight percent of Americans named an economic issue when asked the same question.

But now, all that has changed. In a CBS News/New York Times poll completed a few weeks ago, the economy had much the same importance it had in 1992. Fifty-three percent of Americans volunteered an economic problem as the “most important” facing the country. Granted, the range of answers differs from those of 1992: while mentions of the economy generally predominate, 14 percent specify gas prices.

And the responses to other questions that measure the economy are sobering: 80 percent say the economy is in bad condition; two-thirds say it is getting worse. Both those figures are near the all-time highs recorded earlier this year. The Bush Administration is getting blamed: only 20 percent in the last poll approve of the way the President is handling the economy - his worst percentage ever (only Jimmy Carter fared worse on this measure).

The economy was the dominant issue for both parties, according to the CBS News Exit Polls that were taken during the primaries this past winter and spring. Given a list of three issues their candidates focused on -- the economy, the war in Iraq, and health care - 51 percent of all Democratic primary voters chose the economy as the top issue, 26 percent the war and 19 percent health care. Republican voters had four choices from the issues their candidates were discussing, and the economy finished first with them, too: 40 percent of all Republican primary voters interviewed chose the economy, 21 percent illegal immigration, 19 percent the war in Iraq, and 17 percent terrorism.

Historically, this should be good for the out-of-power party, but since no incumbent is running, that impact may be muted. And neither Barack Obama nor John McCain fared especially well among those primary voters who were particularly concerned about economic issues. Hillary Clinton beat Obama among Democratic voters who chose the economy (51 percent to 44 percent). McCain finished first among Republican candidates who chose the economy as their most important issue (44 percent), beating out Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, but he did not carry a majority of them. In fact, Obama and McCain only captured a majority with voters who said the war in Iraq was the issue that mattered most to their vote.

---

Poll Database
Search recent CBS News campaign polls.

---

Today’s economic issues, like gas prices, housing prices and mortgage foreclosures, may give the economy issue a different focus in this campaign: it’s not just jobs, but it’s also prices. The latest Pew Poll, completed last weekend, found the percentage of Americans citing rising prices as the nation’s most important economic problem rose from 24 percent in February to 45 percent now. In both the Pew Poll and in CBS News polls, more people now say it’s harder to pay their bills than said so in February.

And if the most important economic concerns shift from jobs and general economic malaise to rising prices and inflation, there may be an opening for Republicans. When inflation rose to double digits in the 1970’s, a Democrat (Jimmy Carter) was in the White House. Ronald Reagan successfully used that issue against Carter in the 1980 election. According to that year’s CBS News exit poll, Carter hung on to voters who cared about jobs, 49 percent to 43 percent. But Reagan defeated Carter by more than two to one among voters who named other economic problems - the federal budget (67 percent to 25 percent), taxes (66 percent to 27 percent) and voters’ biggest concern, inflation. Forty-one percent cited inflation and they voted for Reagan 61 percent to 28 percent.

These days, the McCain campaign is spending time talking about gas prices and what to do about them - and there may be a reason. In the last CBS News/New York Times poll, one of McCain’s proposals - building more nuclear power plants -- received 57 percent support from the public, higher than at any time since 1977, before the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island and the Chernobyl disaster. In a CNN/Opinion Dynamics Poll, seven in ten Americans favor offshore drilling for oil and natural gas - another of McCain’s proposals.

In the CBS News/New York Times poll, voters who named the economy as the country’s most important problem favored Obama 54 percent to 33 percent. But those who said the most important problem was “gas prices” chose McCain 58 percent to 28 percent. Right now, the economy still trumps energy prices, but there’s still a long way to go before November.

[dashortround]

@ seriousinusa:

What an utterly brainless post. Congratulations, you qualify to be...a Republican!

"Stupid people are generally conservative. ~John Stuart Mill

[wardoglrs]

Both of these canidates are unfit. Your best hope was and is Dr Paul or Bob Barr

[allurfears]

With Cindy McCain spending $75,000 a MONTH on credit cards, I doubt the McCain''s really care how bad the economy gets. Now if there was a SHOE CRISIS, THAT might be a problem they would address.

[liberty_1776]

National security ranks up there with the economy, because they are both intertwined. Electing Obama would send a clear message to our enemies:

"If you meet with President Obama and smile and shake hands, you can go back home and develop nuclear weapons in peace."

[david1737]

McCain himself was one of the Keating 5.

Google the Savings and Loan crisis, Keating 5 and find out for yourself.

[david1737]

The McCain Campaign is fraught with criminals. They have stolen billions via deregulation in the banking industry.

Google Phil Gramm.

[david1737]

Google Phil and Wendy Gramm and find out how they manipulated the market and caused the Enron Crisis.

[david1737]

Who caused the Subprime meltdown?

McCain%u2018s %u201CMcMortgage%u201D crisis. Senator McCain%u2018s foremost economic adviser, now his campaign%u2018s general co-chair, he%u2018s likeliest choice for treasury secretary, was still lobbying for the UBS Investment Bank, was still being paid to try to kill Senate bills to help people victimized by the mortgage crisis to save their own homes, was still fighting to help the banks and screw the homeowners while already fundraising for McCain, while already advising McCain on housing, on mortgages, on the economy.

[david1737]

Who caused the Subprime debacle?


The general co-chairman of John McCain %u2019s presidential campaign, former Sen. Phil Gramm (R-Texas), led the charge in 1999 to repeal a Depression-era banking regulation law (see Gramm-Leach Act) which contributed significantly to today%u2019s Sub Prime meltdown and economic turmoil.

[liberty_1776]

Obama avoids the term "slavery reparations," while he proposes economic support aimed specifically at black Americans. You can call it anything you like: welfare, bribery, pandering, reparations, etc., but it is still the same thing.

When Obama claims to oppose "slavery reparations," he is repeating the deceitful tactics he used with gun control. Obama claims he supports the 2nd Amendment AND the DC handgun ban, which is impossible according to the US Supreme Court. The truth: Obama supports gun registration and confiscation.

Obama is using the same sneaky tactics with offshore oil drilling: Obama claims to be open to the idea of expanding offshore drilling, while at the same time he claims offshore drilling will not lower prices or reduce US dependence on foreign oil. The truth: Obama opposes drilling for oil completely, in all cases, because a large part of his base is the extreme left-wing environmentalist movement.

So, realpatriot1, Obama is the LIAR. And you are his deceitful political operative.

[element51]

I watched the Sunday morning news shows this morning and was struck by the fact that McCain got most of the attention and praise. Lindsey Graham was on one show and he totally dominated Tom Dashel. He was allowed by the host to tell several out and out lies and was not called on a single one of them and Dashel was not allowed to respond. While watching all this it became crystal clear that McCain is going to dominate this election if the media has their way. Some of you will say that I am crazy, and you may be right, but I believe the election has already been decided. I admire Obama but I just don''t think he can overcome the bias against him. This is just my opinion and I am nothing but a retired teacher whose opinion means nothing to anyone else but me. I really don''t like having such a defeatist attitude but seeing what I saw today and reading the comments here it''s hard to have a positive attitude. If America elects McCain then it will get exactly what it deserves just like 2000 and 2004 when it elected Bush. The last 8 years are now history and you know what they say, "those who forget history are doomed to repeat it."

[element51]

sleepyric....I just finished reading the same comments and I sort of agree. The hate in the comments from the right is so thick you can cut it with a knife. And they far outnumber comments from the left. Veteran188 is correct when he says it was the borrow and spend republicans who got us in this mess but from what I read on these boards, this one and others, the right wing are starting to dominate the discussions. While they are using the Nazi tried and true method...tell it loud enough and long enough and it will become accepted truth...there is no doubt that it works. Lies, half truths and hate are very powerful things, especially when used together. Given that what I am saying is true, or even half true, yes,we are doomed. When you have people like Limbaugh, Hannity, O''Reiley, Savage and the like pounding the nation 10 to 12 hours a day not to forget Fox News, it is bound to have an effect on what people believe. Then when you factor in McCains television ads, which some are blatant lies, you have a receipt for disaster. I will continue to support Obama but there really isn''t much I can do to help him. I hope he wins but I am braced for 4 more years of republican rule.

[veteran188]

Vote McCain four more of the SAME hate filled rehtoric

[veteran188]

sleepyric,

you need a day job, get out more,

borrow and spend republicons got us into this mess,

and what the mccain/republicon plan tells them to do

is attack and demean any one that does not agree with them, thats what you have been reading

[sleepyric]

just read 100+ comments. Conclusion: we are a nation of hate mongers. It''s like two retarded gangs. There is no hope for this country. We are in the toilet.

[veteran188]

borrow and spend republicons

[evderivas]

Elect McSame and you get 4 more years of Bush failed policies and a worse economy, more export of high paying jobs and intolerance of labor unions. We might even have nuclear war. Try to help your self during a bad economy that is being strained by borrowing money for more war adventures.

[chad55555]

Oil industry(greedy)said it''s supply and demand,RIGHTY they made 60 billion profit this quarter.You have people that want too much for food,house,medicine and doctors that charge too much(greed)WHY THE HELL DO YOU THINK THE ECONOMY IS IN THE CRAPER.OUR LEADERS NEED TO TAKE A STAND FOR THE AVERAGE AMERICAN AND PUT A STOP TO IT OR ARE THEY BEING PAID OFF(greed) AGAIN. WE KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS LET''S FIX IT.

[davidbthelen]

There is an epidemic of obesity among our youth and adults. If we can reduce the obesity rate, we reduce the health care costs associated with being overweight, such as type-2 diabetes. Therefore, we reduce health care costs for small businesses (the main organization that creates majority of jobs.)
There is a trend across this nation to close some busy streets and convert them to car free streets. This is where walking and biking are only allowed on these streets during set limited times.
Let us begin programs at schools and neighborhoods. Certain roads could be blocked off to cars. They could block streets for kids to walk or bike to and from schools at these set limited times. This would increase physical activities for our youth.
For areas with bad weather, the following is proposed. Some stationary bikes and walking treadmills can cost as little as a doctor%u2019s visit (according to a major retail web site.) Let us promote preventive medicine. Let us give away coupons for adults to buy fitness equipment. Let us give discounts to health premiums as incentives for those that do lose the weight. Then we can reduce our overall health care costs; therefore, better our economy.
These might be creative ways to help reduce the obesity problem among our youth and adults; therefore create better paying jobs for all.

[richde52]

Yesterday Obama held a news conference and as usual we heard more of the same: me good, McCain bad.
This has been his mantra along with how terrible things are in this country and that only he can make it better.
Specifically we heard how dire the economy is with unemployment increasing to near 6%. He was clear that things haven%u2019t been this bad since the Great Depression!
What%u2019s the cure? Him. He advocates giving the people another $1,000 rebate so they can pay for their gasoline along with higher taxes supposedly to get the rich to pay their fair share.
Obama%u2019s message can be summed up in the following way: the country is in terrible shape and only I can fix it.
Think hard about what he is conveying, apparently we as individuals are not capable of helping ourselves, that only he and his would be administration can lead us out of our troubles.
Is this really true? Have we become this helpless that we need a border line cult figure to improve our lives?
I think not. And that is what this election is really about, not left/right nor parties but about our soul as individuals and whether we still have the grit and the hunger for liberty that our forefathers had.
So folks are you ready to trade your liberty to a cult figure for a $1,000 and ready to admit that you are incapable of helping yourself?
If yes vote for Obama because he is more than ready to tell you how you should behave on a daily basis.