Could Ron Paul Be A Factor In The West?

Libertarian-Leaning Supporters Of The Texas Congressman Could Post A Danger To McCain In Western States

(AP)  Dueling delegations pitting Ron Paul's Nevada supporters against those of John McCain vow to take their fight to the Republican National Convention.

That's just one sign that the outsider, Internet-fueled movement led by the feisty Republican congressman from Texas remains afloat in the wake of McCain's victory in the GOP primaries.

In the libertarian-leaning West, where Paul's message of distrust of the federal government and ardent individualism played particularly well, there is talk of Republicans straying from McCain. Libertarian candidate Bob Barr has emerged as a favorite alternative for Paul activists, followed by Constitutional Party candidate Chuck Baldwin.

Even if the numbers of such dissenters are small, in tight contests in key Western states they could spoil McCain's chances, experts say.

"In Nevada, there's absolutely enough to have an effect on the election," said Chuck Muth, a leading conservative activist in a state in which early polls show McCain and Democratic candidate Barack Obama in a statistical tie.

"I think that you will see not just Libertarians who always vote for the Libertarian candidate but conservative Republicans saying we've had it, we've had enough and they're going to go ahead and vote Libertarian," Muth said.

Paul - or "Dr. Paul," as his followers reverently refer to the obstetrician-turned-politician - ran as the Libertarian Party nominee for president in 1988. But this year he carved out a following as an antiestablishment Republican. His campaign won more than 1 million votes and became a catchall for anti-war, anti-government voters and disaffected Republicans.

The eclectic coalition racked up significant numbers. Paul placed second - ahead of McCain - in Republican caucuses in Nevada and Montana. He posted strong showings in nominating contests in Colorado, Washington and Oregon. In early June, he pulled away 14 percent of the vote from the already certain nominee in the New Mexico primary.

This is the West that McCain must win.

The interior West generally has been friendly territory for Republicans seeking the White House. Nevada, Montana and Colorado voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.

But history also warns of the impact of feisty Texans who preach small government.

"There's little doubt Bill Clinton would not have won Montana if it weren't for Ross Perot," said Bob Brown, a senior fellow at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana. "And I think it's clear those votes were Republican."

The same could be said of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, states where the two-time independent candidate for president is often given credit for Clinton's breaking a two-decade-long Republican presidential winning streak in 1992.

The McCain campaign says they expect many Paul voters to come home to the GOP before Nov. 4.

"At the end of the day, Republicans are going to vote for John McCain. He's a Western candidate who understands water issues, land issues. He's a fiscal conservative," said Rick Gorka, a campaign spokesman. "His message is appealing to a broad spectrum of voters."

There's little sign of that unification yet. In Nevada, state GOP officials abruptly shut down the state convention as a group of well-organized newcomers were poised to win delegates for Paul.

The group led by Paul supporters then held its own rogue convention and elected its own delegates. For its part, the state party couldn't get enough delegates to attend a second convention and appointed delegates by committee. A judge ruled against the Paul supporters when they filed suit. They now plan to file a challenge with the Republican National Committee.

Both groups are heading to the national convention in St. Paul, Minn.

"We're trying to say, 'Hey, you guys got to play by the rules, and if you don't, you'll face the consequences,"' said Wayne Terhune, a 57-year-old dentist in Sparks, Nev., and a leading Paul activist in the state. "They just took the football and went home."

Even without Nevada, Paul will send at least a handful of delegates to the national convention. Outside the convention hall, his supporters have reserved a 15,000-seat basketball arena for a "mini-convention."

Paul hasn't endorsed, but it is clear whom he is not supporting.

"I do encourage all the alternatives, obviously, because I can't support either of the two candidates from the Republican or Democratic parties," Paul said this month in an interview on Revolution Radio, an Internet-based station run by his supporters. "I think that might send a message."

In interviews with a dozen Paul voters from around the West, anti-administration sentiment rang loudest. Most were newly active in politics but had been regular Republican voters. They said their activism began with opposition to the Bush administration's foreign policy.

As newcomers, they expressed little party allegiance and little concern that their third-party votes could benefit Obama, a candidate even further from their views than McCain.

"The notion is, let's just break the GOP because the people who are running and holding office in it aren't respecting what the constituents want," said Jay Weeldreyer, a Paul field director in Renton, Wash. "So, if we can just let them suffer a massive loss, then maybe that will get through to them."

[birdsarewild]

To Voltaire333: It looks like you have been suckered by the MSM and don''t care to do your own research. Just stay asleep and hope you dont'' wake up to a nightmare one day.

[cfin5]

Posted by liberty_1776 at 11:51 PM : Jul 31, 2008---- You are wrong about that my friend,....very wrong.

[wardoglrs]

Dr Paul the only few Congressman with integrity and honest economic policy''s that benefits it citizens was snuffed by the Neo Elite. This Small little soft spoken power house is more than they could handle and McCain will lose this race rightfully so. America is not informed or they simply just don''t care anymore. When the day of reckoning to this country then they will look back at this election and a chill will fill there minds when they find out that there best hope was lost to a Dem called Obama with Snake Oil in his hand and false promises on his mind America will be deceived again Only this time they will be homeless and hungry

[patriot12436]

t

[liberty_1776]

Ron Paul is not a bad guy, and his Libertarian principles are sensible and fair, but Paul is not a factor in the presidential race. McCain will receive an overwhelming amount of support from Paul followers and other people who do not want Obama to be president.

[cfin5]

Posted by Voltaire333 at 08:56 PM : Jul 31, 2008---- Who actually showed up to vote on the 16th. Amendment? What was the tally?....After you do that, tell me how many votes in the majority is a Constitutional Amendment supposed to take for proper ratification?

[voltaire333]

RON PAUL is mostly nuts, please elaborate on that with some facts,..... I''''m interested in what you have to say to compare him to the lapdog dems in the House and Senate.
Posted by cfin5 at 08:16 PM : Jul 31, 2008

Ron Paul is nuts because he''s in bed with the lying tax protestors who falsely claim that American citizens are not legally required to pay income taxes to the federal government. Those types, if you remember, blew up a federal building in Oklahoma City. Ron Paul should try to distance himself from those people. Instead, he encourages them.

[cfin5]

Posted by allurfears at 06:49 PM : Jul 31, 2008----- So if RON PAUL is mostly nuts, please elaborate on that with some facts,..... I''m interested in what you have to say to compare him to the lapdog dems in the House and Senate.

[jive_dadson]

Mr. Gorka''s "end of the day" pronouncement reveals that he is as out of touch with the Ron Paul Revolution as the GOP is out of touch with reality. His remarks show appalling arrogance and ignorance of human nature. He expects that Ron Paul supporters, who were unrelentingly derided, slighted, and cheated by the GOP, will meekly fall into line and vote for the lesser of the two major party evils. That would not happen even if the GOP had treated Dr. Paul and his supporters with a modicum of respect.

Mr. Gorka, we voted for the man we assumed was the lesser evil in 2000, and just look at what it got us! Unnecessary war, suspension of the Constitution, and economic ruin. Never again, Mr. Gorka. Besides, it''s not all that clear that McCain is the lesser evil.

[gobble75]

Ron beat McCain in NV popular vote, was minutes from winning NV electral delegates (1 state win would put Paul on all states general election ballots), but RNC shut down NV convention claiming lease expired, rescheduled July26, then illegally gave all primary delegates to McCain after a closed conference call. Reporters should ask McCain if he supports a legal NV delegate vote instead of the illegal closed conference call. This could be a true test of McCain''s honesty. Many delegate people aren''t bound, and a secret conference call breaks the rules.