Obama Faces Hurdles Expanding Black Vote

Washington Post: New Voters Are Key To His Strategy, But It's Easier Said Than Done

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Alec MacGillis and Jennifer Agiesta.

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Amanda Bass, a volunteer for Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign, had already tried once to get Wilmer Gray to register to vote. But when she glimpsed him in a black T-shirt and White Sox cap again on a recent weekday at the main bus stop here, she was determined to give it another try.

This time, Gray, 21, agreed -- but his bus pulled up before he could fill out the form. Bass jumped onboard and persuaded the driver to wait.

"He was someone I'd worked hard to get," said Bass, 19. "I couldn't let him go, not after seeing how far he'd come."

At the heart of the Obama campaign's strategy is a national effort to increase registration and turnout among the millions of Democratic-inclined Americans who have not been voting, particularly younger people and African Americans. The push began during the primaries but expanded this month to a nationwide registration drive led by 3,000 volunteers dispatched around the country.

Gaining greater African American support could well put Obama over the top in states where Democrats have come close in the past two elections, and could also help him retain the big swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan.

If 95 percent of black voters support Obama in November, in line with a recent Washington Post-ABC News national poll, he can win Florida if he increases black turnout by 23 percent over 2004, assuming he performs at the same levels that Democratic candidate John F. Kerry did with other voters that year.

Obama can win Nevada if he increases black turnout by 8 percent. Ohio was so close in 2004 that if Obama wins 95 percent of the black vote, more than Kerry did, he will win the state without a single extra voter. But an increase in overall black turnout could help offset a poorer performance among other voters.

The push has also raised Democrats' hopes of reclaiming Southern states with large black populations, such as Georgia and North Carolina, where low turnout among voters of all races has left much more untapped potential than in traditionally competitive states such as Ohio. Obama, who himself led a huge voter-registration drive in Chicago in 1992, has said he could compete in states such as Mississippi by increasing black turnout by 30 percent.

A Post analysis suggests it will take more than that to win across the South. If Obama matches Kerry's performance among white voters and increases Democrats' share of black voters to 95 percent, he will still need to increase black turnout in Georgia by 64 percent and in Mississippi by 51 percent to win. Virginia and North Carolina would be in closer reach, requiring increases of 30 and 36 percent, respectively.

The drive is unprecedented in scale and exemplifies Obama's call for government that works "from the bottom up." But as Bass's efforts in Georgia show, the undertaking is laden with challenges, raising questions about the kind of return the campaign will get on its big investment of manpower.

Black turnout overall does not lag behind the national average by much, and Obama's rise already inspired many blacks to get involved for the first time during the primaries.

That means that in seeking to further drive up black turnout, the campaign is in many places reaching out to a disconnected segment of the population that long ago gave up hope in politics.

For many of these disengaged people, racial solidarity with Obama does not automatically trump apathy or despair. Even if volunteers manage to get them registeed, it will require intensive follow-up to make sure they know where to vote, have the necessary identification and then turn out.

So as Bass, a black Amherst College sophomore from the Chicago suburbs, worked in 93-degree heat to canvass the bus stop in Macon -- which sits in front of a defunct railroad station that still has the words "Colored Waiting Room" etched above an archway -- she had to deploy a full range of tools. She linked the election to local issues such as rising bus fares. She chatted up people even after they said no, hoping to establish a connection for later. She deftly turned the flirtations of young men back to the task at hand.

Latasha Edwards, 20, a college student in lime flip-flops, flatly said that her vote would not make a difference. "There are a million other people on Earth," she said.

But Bass won her over by stressing an inequity in Macon that she said Obama will address: the gap in quality between public schools and the private schools where many white families send their children.

Lorrie Miller, 25, a mother of four who works in the mailroom of the local newspaper, was mostly uninformed about voting, saying she had last voted in the seventh grade, confusing a mock election held in school with the real thing.

Several others averted Bass's gaze, gave her a cold stare when she approached or signaled with a curt "I can't vote" that they are felons, who under Georgia law are not allowed to cast ballots. Bass reminded them that they can register after they finish probation.

She asked Dontrell Rozier, 20, who signed up the week before, how his efforts to register his friends were going. Not well. "Most of my people believe their votes don't count," he said, citing the 2000 election recount in Florida.

Bass's last sign-up of the afternoon was Anthony Harris, 40, a beer deliveryman who said he has never voted because "I'm a religious type. My god can make a positive change for mankind, but I've never seen a politician make a positive change. There's still starvation; there's still war." It took five minutes before he relented.

In three hours, Bass collected 20 registrations -- a good haul. After a month, she and two other volunteers have collected more than 700.

In the area around Macon, an estimated 40,000 African Americans are eligible to vote but are not on the rolls, out of about 600,000 black people in the state who are eligible but unregistered. The campaign's goal is to sign up at least 4,000 in Macon.

With months to go before the Oct. 6 registration deadline, there was an increase of 367 black registered voters in Macon's congressional district in June, compared with 24 white voters. Statewide, the rate of registered African American voters is 28.1 percent, up from 27.2 percent in January.

Bass is aware of the hurdles ahead in turning the registrations into votes, though the campaign has signed up 300 Macon volunteers to assist with that. "It's a monumental challenge," she said. "You see how mentally shackled and jaded people are, because they've seen politicians let them down in the past."

Many political scientists contend that, with exceptions in Virginia and Florida, the Democrats' deficit in the South is too big for Obama to overcome even with a huge increase in black turnout, unless he can also improve on the performance of past Democrats among white Southerners. While Obama is likely to do well among younger whites, they say, the prospect of a surge in black turnout may stoke higher turnout among whites for Sen. John McCain, his Republican rival.

Thomas F. Schaller, a political scientist at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, said that it makes sense for Obama to invest some of his considerable resources in the South to force McCain to defend it, but that he sees little hope of victories there. "There's going to b a record number of African Americans turning out," he said. "But the question is whether it will make any difference in these states where Republicans have been winning by double-digit margins."

Steve Hildebrand, Obama's deputy campaign manager, rejects this analysis, saying the political climate is so changed since 2004 that past results are not relevant. At the least, Obama's voter drive will help Democratic candidates down the ballot, now and in the future. And Hildebrand dismissed the prospect of a white counterreaction to an increase in black voters.

But Rep. Jim Marshall, a conservative Democrat whose district includes Macon, appears less confident. He has declined to endorse Obama, and his chief of staff, John Kirincich, was skittish about discussing the benefits that the candidate's push to turn out more black voters would hold for Marshall, who barely won reelection in 2006 and faces another challenge.

Marshall "is not really interested in commenting on the presidential race. It's not his ballgame," Kirincich said. Pressed, he said: "We will accept more people voting for him from [wherever] they come."

Whatever the broader ramifications, they seem distant on the ground. In Columbus, 90 miles west of Macon, several volunteers were recently canvassing a housing project that looks across the Chattahoochee River at Alabama.

Nikasha Wells, 28, a Florida lawyer who took a leave to volunteer, was glad to meet Linda Cross, who was not only registered but also willing to make calls for Obama. Cross, 49, a Wal-Mart employee, said she always votes because of her family's ties to the civil rights movement -- marchers had camped on their land near Selma, Ala.

But next door, Renea Thomas, 27, a janitor and mother of four, was puzzled when Wells asked her to register to vote. "To who?" she said. She has never voted. "I just never thought about it," she said.

Agiesta reported from Washington.

[hasher471]

Well, I see I''''ve found what thread the Repug racist bigots are infesting.

How are all you Repugs doin'''' today?

Got you lying, fact distortin'''' hats on?
I''m sure you do.

I truly hope you having a great OBAMA ''''08 day :-)

[hasher471]

Well, I see I''ve found what thread the Repug racist bigots are infests.

How are all you Repugs doin'' today?

Got you lying fact distortin'' hats on?

I truly hope you having a great OBAMA ''08 day :-)

[wellhell3]

Actually I have many black friends and employees and they have debated heavily over this race.

Some of them went ballistic when MicHELL made the stupid suggestion that they needed someone to tell them it was OK to vote for a black candidate...as a matter of fact, their reaction to her statement was hilarious at the very creative places that she can take her opinions.

Some are very open about their support of Obama...and their excitement that a black man has the opportunity to be president of the United States...it is a historical moment. And I can''t fault them for that.

Some are very skeptical about exactly where his loyalties are! And they say they are still unsure...because they love their country just the way it is and can''t quite believe in these unspecified changes he''s been so vague about!

I think to discount the intelligence of this voting block, is sorely disrespecting of our own neighbors and citizens.

[ariel133]

Posted by aelemay said :

"Yes, with Obama, you will get what you deserve.

You will lose your freedom of speech because of "fairness." You will lose your right to guns because of "safety." You will lose your right to privacy because of "terrorism." You will lose your money because of "re-distribution." You will lose your home because someone else "deserves it more." You will lose the protection of the armed forces, because "war is immoral."

Sound familiar? Obama will build the Soviet Socialist States of America because that is what George Soros, his financial backer, wants. And "he who pays the piper calls the tune."



PERFECTLY SAID!!

[seah5]

With the Jim Crow bill today
Obama should suck up them black votes.
All part of the plan

He is making Rev Wright proud.

[chicnlittle]

I thought Obama was too presumptuous. He has not been elected. Obama certainly has a big ego and this is in no small part due to his cult like followers blindly overlooking all his faults.

Obama is just too arrogant to lead this nation.


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Posted by johnbush2 at 10:46 AM : Jul 29, 2008

The liberals aleays accused Rowe and Chaney of pulling W''s strings. Who do they think will be pulling Obama''s - Jackson, Sharpton, Farrakan? This guy is a nightmare for America.

[jongood65]

Blacks are racists. They vote for a candidate based upon the color of the candidates skin. They don''t figure in any calculation of votes. They will vote en masse for Obama whether they like his policies or not.
Posted by johnbush2 at 10:15 AM : Jul 29, 2008
====================

You may have a valid point, since I know myself, being an American black man will never vote for Sen. "Both Ways" Barak NObama because he''s an American white guy with an ultra-libtard northeastern elitist Ivy League education and zero real world experience.

The only black in Sen. "Both Ways" Barak NObama''s lineage is 100% Kenyan....Zero American black.

The only black history his family tree contains is the last twenty years he''s spent sitting in a black seperatist church in Chicago.

[johnbush2-2009]

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows Obama was ahead 47%-44% among registered voters, down from a 6-percentage point lead he had last month. McCain led 49%-45% among likely voters, reversing a 5-point Obama lead among that group. In both cases, the margin of error is +/%u20144 points.

The poll that found Democrat Barack Obama''s highly publicized foreign trip has not broadened confidence in his ability to be commander of the U.S. military and suggested Obama''s trip may have helped energize voters who favor McCain.

USA Today/Gallup Poll

I thought Obama was too presumptuous. He has not been elected. Obama certainly has a big ego and this is in no small part due to his cult like followers blindly overlooking all his faults.

Obama is just too arrogant to lead this nation.

[johnbush2-2009]

johnbush2,

Would you agree that applying your logic to white Hillary voters who now support McCain that they are voting on race and not issues?

I wouldn''''t, but it''''s not my logical argument.

Posted by realpatriot1 at 10:19 AM : Jul 29, 2008

White voters don''t vote as a single block according to the color of the candidates skin. If they did, Obama would not be the presumptive Democratic nominee.

[johnbush2-2009]

Obama organized a free rock concert for a crowd of 72,000 in Portland, Oregon.

Obama organized a free rock concert for a crowd of 200,000 in Berlin, Germany.

Obama was dead wrong about the success of the surge in Iraq.

Obama failed to visit wounded US soldiers in Germany because he wanted to go to the gym.

What do the above statements tell you. It says that Obama would make a better rock concert organizer than Commander-In-Chief of this country.

[realpatriot1]

johnbush2,

Would you agree that applying your logic to white Hillary voters who now support McCain that they are voting on race and not issues?

I wouldn''t, but it''s not my logical argument.

[johnbush2-2009]

Blacks are racists. They vote for a candidate based upon the color of the candidates skin. They don''t figure in any calculation of votes. They will vote en masse for Obama whether they like his policies or not.

[realpatriot1]

Cpt. Porter,

I failed to let you know in my previous post that I''m grateful for your service and that of your fellow troops...my bad!

Make no mistake, Americans of all political stripes and beliefs appreciate your service and sacrifice and hold you all in our prayers.

[realpatriot1]

Cpt. Porter,

I don''t question your observation of what went on that you saw, but there was ample footage shown of Obama eating with and talking to regular troops while at Bagram. It makes perfect sense that he would not run into a large crowd, even if it was troops. The Secret Service has something to say about that. Bear in mind that a memeber of the service in the Green Zone in Iraq blew up his fellow soldiers.

I''m not qwuestioning your account or refuting your conclusion, I''m just saying there may be more to the story than what you saw. Actually, there''s video footage which shows that there was.

[realpatriot1]

Ariel133,

That poll was released by Gallup the same day and for the same time period as another Gallup poll showing Obama up by the most yet, 8 points.

Why the discrepancy? The poll you cite uses only what
they call "likely voter". All the responses to that poll among registered voters when not filtered for "likely voters" had Obam ahead by 5 and was more in line with all other polls.

The "likely voter" screen is a means for pollsters to skew the results by including their biases about who they think will show up and who won''t. The "unlikely" voters screened out by the filter were 10-to-1 for Obama.

Gallup used the same methodology at the close of the 2004 election and showed the results swinging from Kerry up 8 to Bush up 11 in a matter of 3 days and neither result ended up being as close to the actual result as other polls without this screen.

[ariel133]

A surprising poll released Monday confirms Sen. Barack Obama''s worst nightmare: he actually lost ground to Sen. John McCain after a global trip meant to buck up his sagging credentials in foreign and military policy.


The USA Today/Gallup poll has McCain leading Obama by four points, 49 percent to Obama''s 45 percent, among likely voters.


Just last month, the same poll had McCain trailing by six points to the neophyte U.S. senator.

[ariel133]

As you know I am not a very political person. I just wanted to pass along that Senator Obama came to Bagram Afghanistan for about an hour on his visit to "The War Zone". I wanted to share with you what happened. He got off the plane and got into a bullet proof vehicle, got to the area to meet with the Major General (2 Star) who is the commander here at Bagram.

As the Soldiers where lined up to shake his hand he blew them off and didn''t say a word as he went into the conference room to meet the General. As he finished, the vehicles took him to the ClamShell (pretty much a big top tent that military personnel can play basketball or work out in with weights) so he could take his publicity pictures playing basketball. He again shunned the opportunity to talk to Soldiers to thank them for their service.

I swear we got more thanks from the NBA Basketball Players or the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders than from one of the Senators, who wants to be the President of the United States. I just don''t understand how anyone would want him to be our Commander-and-Chief. It was almost that he was scared to be around those that provide the freedom for him and our great country.

If this is blunt and to the point I am sorry but I wanted you all to know what kind of caliber of person he really is. What you see in the news is all fake.

In service,
CPT Jeffrey S. Porter
Battle Captain
TF Wasatch
American Soldier

[Mccarthyaw]

Obama=higher taxes.
McCain= more of the same.
Who do you vote for?


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Posted by whiskyrokkr at 08:12 AM : Jul 29, 2008

Common misconception about Obama and the Democrats. Under his tax plan, most Americans will pay the same or less taxes. Only if you are making over 250,000 will your taxes be raised. More of the same (corporate tax cuts, "trickle down economy", rich getting richer) will get us no where.

[whiskyrokkr]

Obama=higher taxes.
McCain= more of the same.
Who do you vote for?

[ariel133]

Making excuses for Obama is what is happening over and over..giving him passes and allowing for him to seem connected to Americans because of his so called "popularity to the masses" is sad. He had time to visit the troops as he had time to play basket ball. Regardless if it seemed "political" that is not the point, it would have showed his true faith in American military, unless of course, it makes him uncomfortable. This is the question people seem to overlook. Would he have written off Rev Wright if he did not win the primary? I really want to know, but hardly guess I ever will. If he loses the GE he will certainly return to him, that is my feeling.