July 25, 2008
The "Experience Gap" Question
CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: How Big Is The Gap In How People See The Candidates' Experience - And How Much Does It Matter?
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News Tools Poll Database Search for results from the latest CBS News national polls on the president, the campaign and more.
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Podcast Poll Positions Listen to CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic dissect the data to see what's driving public opinion.
Back in December, I wrote about how different ways of asking a question can produce different answers, especially when it comes to tracking characteristics like experience and other “presidential” qualities. Voters may perceive one candidate as having more experience than the other when they are asked to compare two candidates - but may believe both candidates have “enough” experience to handle the job. Despite Al Gore’s lead in experience overall during the 2000 election campaign, more than six in ten registered voters thought George W. Bush had enough.
The “experience gap” - and especially how it plays out in the foreign policy realm - has played a role in the scheduling of Barack Obama’s current trip to Europe and the Middle East. How big an “experience gap” in foreign policy is there today? And does anybody care?
Here are some comparisons from polls that were conducted before the trip. All of them asked two identical questions about each candidate, so we really can see whether a candidate has passed one experience test - being “Commander-in-Chief” with the majority of voters:
Obama may or may not have a politically debilitating weakness on the question of being Commander-in-Chief, but he has not made much progress in the last few months convincing more voters of his abilities. The July CBS News Poll found almost the same results as it had in May: Sixty two percent said he was “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to be an effective commander-in-chief, and 25 percent made the “very likely” choice. In contrast to the rather static assessment of Obama, McCain had improved by five points on this measure in the same two months.
But running a military is not the only foreign policy matter, and on one foreign policy issue, Obama has shown a clear lead over McCain in recent polls. And that issue is NOT Iraq! The ABC News/Washington Post July Poll found a fairly even division - 47 percent trust McCain more on Iraq, 44 percent trust Obama more. Fox News found something similar in a poll conducted about ten days later: by 47 percent to 39 percent, voters said they “trusted” McCain more to deal with the situation in Iraq.
Where Obama is well ahead of McCain is in the perception that he will improve the image of the U.S. in the rest of the world. Nearly half of voters, 48 percent, say he will. Just 18 percent say that about McCain. It’s not that the rest say the image will get worse in a McCain administration, but 59 percent say things just won’t change.
But this raises the question: how much will it matter? Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal has made some historical comparisons that suggest meeting a foreign policy threshold may have mattered in previous elections. But “experience” and competence in foreign policy may not be the determining factor when it comes to the vote in the fall. Fewer than one in five adults name any foreign policy issue as the most important problem facing the country (and most of those references are to Iraq). In contrast, the economy and gas prices are named by more than half.
American voters may not care all that much what people in other countries think of us. And one trip may not resolve Obama’s “experience” problem. Americans can sometimes be skeptical of the purpose of international travel and action. Even successful foreign trips by Americans Presidents don’t necessarily boost their approval ratings. And when we ask the American public if politicians are sincere when they do something, or whether they are doing it for political gain, political gain almost always wins.
Obama’s trip may be seen that way too. Halfway into this trip, the latest Fox News poll asked if Obama’s trip was “better described as a fact-finding trip or as a campaign event.” By 47 percent to 19 percent, in that poll at least, the public said it was a “campaign event.” We’ll see what happens when it’s all over.
By Kathy Frankovic
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Add a Comment See all 68 Comments
- bluestardad,
Nice to see you found your CapsLk button. Whatever value your comment may have is mitigated by your decision to ''scream'' about it - Reply to this comment
- I boo-booed. I temporarily (hopefully?) forgot the GHW Bush is also eligible to run.
At least Carter showed leadership on energy and foreign affairs. He was the last President to acknowledge that we can''t keep burning tens of millions of barrels of oil a day forever, no matter how much we pump out of the ground.
Carter installed solar panels on the White House. Reagan had them torn down his first week in office. That''s about all you need to know about Democratic vs Republican energy policy. - Reply to this comment
- YOU CAN SEE THE RIGHT WING KOOL AID DRINKING NEOCONS DISLIKE OBAMA!
EVERYONE OF THE AIPAC MEMBERS AND THE SEND OTHER PEOPLES CHILDREN TO DEFEND ISRAEL AN THE OIL COMPANIES FOR THE NEXT HUNDRED YEAR CROWD ARE USING EVERYTHING IN THEIR ARSENAL TO DISCREDIT OBAMA.
THEY CANT BUY HIM!
THEY CANT BLACKMAIL HIM!
THEY WANTED TO TAKE HIM OUT ON THIS TRIP!
THEY KNOW HE IS GETTING AMERICA OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST WHERE AMERICA HAS BEEN BOGGED DOWN FOR THE PAST 65 YEARS!
IF THAT ANGERS THE RIGHT WING CHRISTIAN NUT JOBS AND THEIR BRAIN WASHED NEOCONS OR THE DUEL PASSPORT HOLDING AMERICAN ISRAELIS LIKE JOE LIEBERMAN THEN SO BE IT!
IT IS TIME AMERICA DID WHAT WAS IN ITS OWN BEST INTEREST!
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT AMERICA NEEDS!
THERE IS NOTHING IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT IS A THREAT TO AMERICA!
THE ONLY REASON MIDDLE EAST ARTICLES ARE KEPT IN THE AMERICAN MEDIA IS BECAUSE AIPAC MEMBERS RUN THE AMERICAN MEDIA AND FILM INDUSTRY!
AMERICA STAND UP OR SHUT UP!
TAKE BACK YOUR COUNTRY! - Reply to this comment
- I wonder why McCain supporters have to resort to name calling and flat out lies to try to convince people not to vote for him. Well, politics hates a vacuum. If it isn''t filled with hope, someone will come along and try to fill it with fear.
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- If McCain is so hot, why did it take until now for him to get the nomination?
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- It''s really not just about being "experienced" - as in "I sat around in the Senate for decades and did virtually nothing in all those years" - it''s also about intelligence, ability and drive.
Senator Obama may be only a first term US Senator (with more years in his State legislature) but he''s already the leading Presidential contender.
McCain has been around much longer, and it''s taken all this time for him to get to the same level of achievement that Mr. Obama has achieved in much less time.
If McCain really had it, it would have been apparent long before now. It IS apparent that Senator Obama DOES have it, right out of the starting gate.
In short; it''s obvious who the more capable man really is: it''s Obama. - Reply to this comment
- Barack Obama is a U.S. Senator who has more years of experience as a community organizer and constitutional law professor than John McCain. As this election year unfolds, the community organizer experience and knowledge of the constitution might be more relevant to becoming and being President of the United States than Senate or military experience - especially if the one with the community organizer and constitutional law experience is someone with the distinctive qualities of Barack Obama.
Vision, gifted statesmanship, charisma, excitement, energy, remarkable intelligence and phenomenal leadership skills are qualities that the world and a majority of U.S. citizens see in Barack Obama. All due respect to the longevity of John McCain''s Senate and military service, John McCain is not endowed with these qualities. They are useful qualities for a President of the United States. - Reply to this comment
- There is a HUGE experience gap between McCain and Obama. And it should be a matter of UTMOST importance. Not now, nor ever, has it been time for us to elect an inexperienced person as the president of the most powerful nation in the history of the planet.
Anyone that insists otherwise is either a die-hard Liberal that would sell out America just to get their guy elected, or an idiot.
People want to keep linking McCain to President Bush, but that is just an excuse. McCain is the ONLY candidate from EITHER side that has shown the ability to work with BOTH Conservatives and Liberals.
Onama has shown no such ability.
America is NOT Liberal or Conservative, It is a mixture of both, and we need a leader that sees that and is capable of working for it. - Reply to this comment
- liberty_1776....You wouldn''t know liberty if it bit you on your arse. I''ve been reading your post and find you to be totally lacking in intellectual content. All you do is post insult after insult with absolutely nothing to back your claims. Your post, "white war veteran vs Black Muslim and angry black power wife" speaks volumes about you. You know that Obama is NOT a muslim but still continue to post that lie hoping that you might get some simple minded soul to vote for your man based on that lie. I''m not going to bring myself down to your level and start calling you names and insulting you. But I will remember you with a chuckle when Obama wins in November. And he will!
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- IOWEIGN, aren''''t you a Canadian? Why are you campaigning so hard for Obama?
I guess Canadians and other foreigners around the world would like to choose OUR next president! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Posted by liberty_1776 at 04:29 PM : Jul 26, 2008
I guess Canadians and other foreigners around the world would like to choose OUR next president! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
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You are lucky they don''t.
You must be from Texas - All Hat and No Cattle... - Reply to this comment
- I''d much rather elect a relatively inexperienced young genius like Obama than a dumb but experienced Senate do-nothing bench-warmer like McCain
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- Hillary made the mistake of going after Obama about the experience issue. Hopefully McCain will make the same mistake, and yield the same result.
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- tbweb said: "The ''experienced'' Bush administration inherited a balanced budget with a surplus but now submits Budgets with red-ink built in, to the tune of $400 billion in red-ink! "
But if you''re rich, what''s your phrase for the $300 billion in interest paid every year to service the Reagan/Bush debt? Answer: ''tax cut'' - Reply to this comment
- White war veteran
vs.
Black Muslim and angry black-power wife
Uhhhhhhhhh. Hmmmm. Quite a choice! - Reply to this comment
- IOWEIGN, aren''t you a Canadian? Why are you campaigning so hard for Obama?
I guess Canadians and other foreigners around the world would like to choose OUR next president! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha! - Reply to this comment
- Experience doesn''''t matter?! Would you let a 1st year med student perform brain surgery?
Posted by TiredoftheBS at 01:49 AM : Jul 26, 2008
Of the two candidates, which of them could even get past pre-med testing and into med school? - Reply to this comment
- The National Debt has been doubled by experience...
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- McCain''s experience can be summed up as follows: crashed his jet, surrendered to the enemy, got tortured, lied to the enemy under torture, opposed torture for many years because "it doesn''t work", but now SUPPORTS TORTURE to pander to the remaining imbeciles who call themselves republicans.
Does ANY of this experience sound useful for turning our country around? NO!
The VAST MAJORITY of our country say "we are headed in the WRONG direction"! Then why would any of them vote for McCain? Answer: they won''t.
Stick a fork in it; it''s done. (Any hope of McCain becoming president, that is.) - Reply to this comment
- Experience has us where we are now! Experience has the National Debt doubled after the Bush administration inherited a budget surplus to the tune in excess of $9 trillion! The "experienced" Bush administration inherited a balanced budget with a surplus but now submits Budgets with red-ink built in, to the tune of $400 billion in red-ink! Experience not only has us fighting the wrong war in Iraq instead of Afghanistan which was suppose to be paid for with Iraqi oil, now being paid for by U.S. Taxpayers instead, but also "experience" mismanaged the War as well, especially Post Shock and Awe, yes experience has many of us in shocked so maybe we should try no experience! Is experience all it`s cracked up to be? Maybe not!
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- So why are we even thinking about electing Obama to complete Jimmy Carter''s second term, when Jimmy Carter himself is still available?
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Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
