July 25, 2008
The "Experience Gap" Question
CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: How Big Is The Gap In How People See The Candidates' Experience - And How Much Does It Matter?
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Listen to CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic dissect the data to see what's driving public opinion.
Back in December, I wrote about how different ways of asking a question can produce different answers, especially when it comes to tracking characteristics like experience and other “presidential” qualities. Voters may perceive one candidate as having more experience than the other when they are asked to compare two candidates - but may believe both candidates have “enough” experience to handle the job. Despite Al Gore’s lead in experience overall during the 2000 election campaign, more than six in ten registered voters thought George W. Bush had enough.
The “experience gap” - and especially how it plays out in the foreign policy realm - has played a role in the scheduling of Barack Obama’s current trip to Europe and the Middle East. How big an “experience gap” in foreign policy is there today? And does anybody care?
Here are some comparisons from polls that were conducted before the trip. All of them asked two identical questions about each candidate, so we really can see whether a candidate has passed one experience test - being “Commander-in-Chief” with the majority of voters:
Obama may or may not have a politically debilitating weakness on the question of being Commander-in-Chief, but he has not made much progress in the last few months convincing more voters of his abilities. The July CBS News Poll found almost the same results as it had in May: Sixty two percent said he was “somewhat likely” or “very likely” to be an effective commander-in-chief, and 25 percent made the “very likely” choice. In contrast to the rather static assessment of Obama, McCain had improved by five points on this measure in the same two months.
But running a military is not the only foreign policy matter, and on one foreign policy issue, Obama has shown a clear lead over McCain in recent polls. And that issue is NOT Iraq! The ABC News/Washington Post July Poll found a fairly even division - 47 percent trust McCain more on Iraq, 44 percent trust Obama more. Fox News found something similar in a poll conducted about ten days later: by 47 percent to 39 percent, voters said they “trusted” McCain more to deal with the situation in Iraq.
Where Obama is well ahead of McCain is in the perception that he will improve the image of the U.S. in the rest of the world. Nearly half of voters, 48 percent, say he will. Just 18 percent say that about McCain. It’s not that the rest say the image will get worse in a McCain administration, but 59 percent say things just won’t change.
But this raises the question: how much will it matter? Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal has made some historical comparisons that suggest meeting a foreign policy threshold may have mattered in previous elections. But “experience” and competence in foreign policy may not be the determining factor when it comes to the vote in the fall. Fewer than one in five adults name any foreign policy issue as the most important problem facing the country (and most of those references are to Iraq). In contrast, the economy and gas prices are named by more than half.
American voters may not care all that much what people in other countries think of us. And one trip may not resolve Obama’s “experience” problem. Americans can sometimes be skeptical of the purpose of international travel and action. Even successful foreign trips by Americans Presidents don’t necessarily boost their approval ratings. And when we ask the American public if politicians are sincere when they do something, or whether they are doing it for political gain, political gain almost always wins.
Obama’s trip may be seen that way too. Halfway into this trip, the latest Fox News poll asked if Obama’s trip was “better described as a fact-finding trip or as a campaign event.” By 47 percent to 19 percent, in that poll at least, the public said it was a “campaign event.” We’ll see what happens when it’s all over.
By Kathy Frankovic
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 72 CommentsMcBush and his pals like McSame have purposefully and willfully broken the laws in the Constitution. Again and again in arrogant fashion. The public needs to find out all about it through impeachment hearings.
so what!
McSAME has a ton of experience in lying, cheating and
stealing from the American people, I quess that looks
good to conservatives who voted for an identical type
of person in the criminal GW Bush,
but for the rest of us, give us a president with no
experience
''Experience'' is a distant second to having good and godly character ... and this old relic of the 20th Century simply misses the mark.
Yours truly,
COl. A.M.Khajawall [Ret]
Forensic psychiatrist.
%u201CLord %u2014 Protect my family and me,%u201D reads the note published in the Maariv daily. %u201CForgive me my sins, and help me guard against pride and despair. Give me the wisdom to do what is right and just. And make me an instrument of your will.%u201D
" ME, ME ,ME,ME " IS ALL HE EVER SAYS.
HE IS NOT A SERVANT OF THE PEOPLE!
DEMOCRATS need to start pointing fingers at GOPs soon, or they will LOSE. Democrats, PLEASE START BEING AGGRESSIVE.
Also, the public is impatient to hear a more aggressive economic plan from Democrats- I am hoping that is your trump card to sway the public at the last minute.
You''re so tiresome... get a life will ya?
Yours truly,
COl. A.M.Khajawall [Ret]
Forensic psychiatrist.
Posted by akhajawall at 12:23 PM : Jul 25, 2008
Who cares what you have to say, you old senile goat.
His liberal supporters must be proud of it too.
Posted by beauin
You don''t put somebody like George W Bush in the White House.
As with brain surgery, you want someone who graduated at the top of their class, like Obama.
John Bush would be well to remember that Jesus was a liberal as were our founding fathers.
Scratching my head in Seattle, and now no longer watching CBS Evening or more precisely "edited" news.
Scratching my head in Seattle, and now no longer watching CBS Evening or more precisely "edited" news.
And that highlights one of the issues we''ve created as a Society. American arrogance masquerading for a foreign policy is the one of the main reasons for the low opinion exhibited towards America since 2002...the run up to the war, which to be completely accurate is not a war. How can you call bombing a country and occupying it for close to 6 years a war? Call it what it is: An OCCUPATION
Obviously, EXPERIENCE doesn%u2019t mean SQUAT!!!
If this is true why is the US in such a s crewed up state.
The Bush Administration is the most EXPERIENCED administration in years.
Cheney, Colin Powell, Rumsfeld, Wolfewitz, and many other with tons of government %u201CEXPERIENCE%u201D.
PLUS, Dub%u2019Ya had his Dad and his friends to lean on also (Jim Baker, etc)
I%u2019d rather have someone that%u2019s Intelligent, has street smarts, logical, caring, is a proven manager and administrator in the Whitehouse.
The BEST person for AMERICA right now in BARACK OBAMA.
Vote OBAMA!
Well Ariel, here''s a ? for you. Was McSHAME putting the country first when he was a card carrying member of the Keating FIVE? "Someone whose served his country" is merely a strategy to attempt to win the White House of which I for one haven''t swallowed hook, line, and sinker. General Clark was absolutely correct...getting shot down flying a jet fighter doesn''t qualify someone to become president on its own. Republican''s love to wrap themselves in the flag and masquerade as PATRIOTS...when in fact there''s nothing more unpatriotic than authorizing the OCCUPATION of a country under FALSE pretenses. Get a clue Repugnantcan''s.
Asked who would be the better commander in chief, again 53 percent said McCain, while 25 percent said Obama.
Respondents favored McCain by a 38 percent to 30 percent margin as being consistent and standing up for beliefs, and 42 percent to 31 percent as having strong leadership qualities.
Also, 55 percent said Obama would be the %u201Criskier choice%u201D as president, compared to 35 percent for McCain.
Yes, and those same "knowledgeable" people are the same ones polled who said without a doubt six years ago we''d be greeted as "liberators." Give it a rest...you Repugnantcan''s have been wrong in 99 out of 100 of your so called predictions and you''ve led this country "OUR" country down a path that we''ll be paying for dearly for decades to come...That''s my prediction.
McBushSame, vote for him if you like the way things are going
McSame likes the way bush has handled our country?
Additionally, what kind of Commander In Chief ''experience'' does Mc Cain really. Being in the service? Crashing 3 planes? Being held POW? Making Propaganda film for the NVC?
NO! Obama is what America needs right now.
Posted by Ariel133 at 01:59 PM : Jul 25, 2008
We''ve already seen that the country goes to hell under a Republican president. The last Democratic president did all right too so what are we talking about here? The facts of the issues surrounding this election favor the Democrats. I don''t think you can get around that.
Thirty years after the Reagan Revolution, I believe the country suffers from the success of that revolution: massive public and private debtloads, a massive shift in wealth toward the already wealthy (with attendent control of politics as well as capitalism). It would be hard-pressed to call this a democracy any more. For personality and experience, I thought Biden was the best Dem candidate, not sure for Repubs. Repubs are just WRONG for the country right now. We need to begin paying for the Reagan/Bush debt and saving for the huge Boomer SocSec/Medicare retirement juggernaut thats going to hit us in about 10 years. Time is growing short to do both.
In any case, Repubs need to accept that just ''saying'' you''re the party of small government doesn''t mean anything, esp. after 30 years of ''all talk and no trousers''.
There''s NO QUESTION that right now, we need someone that is willing to focus on AMERICA''S domestic problems - energy, immigration, economy, etc - those are problems that McCain just CANNOT comprehend.
unles you actually want more of the same,
but if you do you are as UnAmerican as he is
Unless you account for the liquor/beer distribution laws here which are spread out between ONLY three business entities, one of which coincidentally happens to be owned by his wife.
So, I guess he did actually accomplish something...
It''s how they plan to run the country. Other than into the ground like Bush did.
he has states so, he also applauds the McBush economic policy, whatevr thats means , bush obviously has no plans for anything at all.
McSAME should be in prison not in the white house, but
than again so should Bush
I''m disturbed that he can''t do simple math and figure out that we''d have plenty of money for everything if he would stop the war in Iraq. And putting a halt to tax breaks for the already filthy rich would be the frosting on the cake.
But NOOOOOOO - McBushit doesn''t get it and he never will.
He''s a doddering old fool who callously dumped his first wife after she was badly hurt in a car accident while he was a POW. This speaks volumes RE: his lack of decency and loyalty. The only loyalty he has is to his old outdated ideas.
He''s gonna run this country into the ground - he will be worse than Bush.
I''d just as soon bring Richard Nixon back from the dead . . . . .
THE EXPERIENCE CRY IS A LOAD OF YOU KNOW WHAT ,
ANY NEW PRESIDENT IS INEXPERIENCE,
ITS ALL ABOUT HAVING THE BEST PLATFORM/ISSUES TO OFFER THE AMERICAN PEOPLE .
EVERY PRESIDENTS ARE SURROUNDED BY EXPERTS AND AIDE, WITH ALL THE ANSWERS; ITS UP TO THE PRESIDENT TO MAKE THE CALL.
MCCAIN IS A HACK POLITICAN THAT FINISH AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NAVAL ACADEMY, HE IS NOT EDUCATED TO RUN FOR ANY POSITION ON WALL STREET, MUCH LESS THE OVAL OFFICE .
HE THINKS THE OVAL OFFICE IS SOME SORT OF ARMY OUTPOST , THE NERVE OF HIM TO CALL SOMEONE OUT ON EXPERIENCE.
Obama was more open to shaking hands with Germans and French people more than this country%u2019s troops and yet he is just a qualified to be our president? What a joke.
By the way you %u201CMcSame%u201D haters %u2013 McCain has been far from a Bush team player during the past 7 plus years. You claim to want to break down walls between races, tribes, religions etc, but folks you keep labeling anyone in the GOP as a Bush person. You show your ignorance when you make those statements.
ITS ALL ABOUT HAVING THE BEST PLATFORM/ISSUES TO OFFER THE AMERICAN PEOPLE . **** Platforms are nothing more than stories(As in make believe we will do this) woven together to appeal to the voters. Platforms are taken apart as soon as the election is over and buried out of sight****
EVERY PRESIDENTS ARE SURROUNDED BY EXPERTS AND AIDE, WITH ALL THE ANSWERS; ITS UP TO THE PRESIDENT TO MAKE THE CALL. **** You called this one right and Obamas call is all too often %u201Cpresent%u201D instead of yay or nay. And look at his advisors and experts in his past e;.g. his Reverend Wright. ****
MCCAIN IS A HACK POLITICAN THAT FINISH AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NAVAL ACADEMY, HE IS NOT EDUCATED TO RUN FOR ANY POSITION ON WALL STREET, MUCH LESS THE OVAL OFFICE . ****I%u2019ll take a bottom have graduate from any military academy over your Ivy league graduates. McCain has bucked the GOP party position more often than Obama has voted %u201CPresent%u201D ****
HE THINKS THE OVAL OFFICE IS SOME SORT OF ARMY OUTPOST , THE NERVE OF HIM TO CALL SOMEONE OUT ON EXPERIENCE. **** Not worthy of a response by the way is English a second language for you? One would think so by your grammar skills or attention to detail in your posting.****
let me shout again.afterall my MIC is on
THE EXPERIENCE CRY IS A LOAD OF YOU KNOW WHAT ,
ANY NEW PRESIDENT IS INEXPERIENCE,
ITS ALL ABOUT HAVING THE BEST PLATFORM/ISSUES TO OFFER THE AMERICAN PEOPLE .
Universal healthcare = barack yes , mcCain NO
money given to states to creat jobs = barack YES McCain NO.
Money to states to builds and fix the school system Barack YES mCcain NO
Money to states to build and fix roads and bridges, barack YES Mccain NO.
money to cover the environment, you can always count on the democrats to deliver that.
EVERY PRESIDENTS ARE SURROUNDED BY EXPERTS AND AIDE, WITH ALL THE ANSWERS; ITS UP TO THE PRESIDENT TO MAKE THE CALL.
MCCAIN IS A HACK POLITICAN THAT FINISH AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NAVAL ACADEMY, HE IS NOT EDUCATED TO RUN FOR ANY POSITION ON WALL STREET, MUCH LESS THE OVAL OFFICE .
HE THINKS THE OVAL OFFICE IS SOME SORT OF ARMY OUTPOST , THE NERVE OF HIM TO CALL SOMEONE OUT ON EXPERIENCE.
As the article stated, Obama may not have as much "experience" but I definately think it is enough.
But I''ll try:
1: The conservatives will lose this election: Of course they will, they don''t have a horse in the race. McCain is no conservative.
2: Bush is the worst president ever: No, Carter was. Clinton ties with Bush for the second worst.
3: Obama will lead us from the desert into the promised land: Nope. Sorry, but he''s a Chicago politician, as crooked as the rest from there. Those guys can teach a senator a thing or two about being corrupt.
4: McCain will lead us to the promised land: Uh, no. He will be just like Bush, drop his veto pen on the floor, and be unable to find it for four years. You can''t be a leader if you sign everthing they send your way. A trained monkey with a rubber stamp could have done as well.
5: It''s gotten so bad it''s getting funny. You are here tearing into each other''s party, acting like it''s one party against another. It''s not. It''s the average American against those in D.C. That''s important! As long as we fight about all this, they can do anything they want. Don''t you realise BOTH parties made this mess? An YOU let them? Sad, really, how you line up so neatly like sheep waiting to be sheared..
Yep that''s right and that money comes from higher taxes on everybody. So you want the federal government, notorious for wasting money, to do everything for you.
And by the way repeating same lines with no further proof doesn''t make them more believable.
Experience as a politician ... hmmm ... Bush was an experienced politician, what has that experience given us the 7.5 years?
That means that of all possible eligible candidates for President, only Jimmy Carter has any experience.
Posted by TiredoftheBS
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I would certainly consider it if the only other option was an angry, insecure, jealous and petty old man with little self control, who demonstrates on a daily basis that he is a few cards short of a full deck.
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