McCain Makes Gains In Four Key States

Washingtonpost.com Poll: McCain Leads In Colo.; Obama Has Small Leads In Mich., Minn., Big Lead In Wis.

(Washingtonpost.com)  This story was written by Chris Cillizza.

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Republican John McCain has quickly closed the gap between himself and Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama in several key battleground states even as the Arizona senator struggles to break through the wall-to-wall coverage of Obama's trip to Europe and the Middle East this week.

McCain and Obama are in a statistical dead heat in Colorado, Michigan and Minnesota while the Illinois senator has a more comfortable double-digit edge in Wisconsin, according to polling conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal during the past week. Only in Colorado, however, does McCain hold a greater percentage of the vote share than Obama.

The economy is still the dominant concern of voters in each state. Nearly six in ten respondents in Michigan, a state crippled by the dire problems of the auto industry, cited the economy as the single most important issue in their decision this fall. The war in Iraq ranked second in terms of voter priorities but was named by less than one in five respondents in each state. Potential hot button issues such as terrorism and illegal immigration were cited by fewer than 10 percent of voters in ranking their top priorities.

The surveys are part of a four-month long effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground states that could determine the outcome of the race. The path to the presidency runs through a handful of battleground states, as both Obama and McCain seek the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Thus, the four states surveyed in this project provide a snapshot of where things stand less than four months before Election Day.

The first in the series of polls, conducted in the four states in mid-June, showed Obama comfortably ahead of McCain in Wisconsin and Minnesota while the races in Michigan and Colorado were closer although Obama still held the lead. The latest polling, showing a much tighter race, was conducted July 14 to 22, during Obama's high-profile trip to the Middle East.

National polling suggests Obama retains a steady but statistically significant edge. In the most recent Washington Post/ABC News survey, Obama held a 50 percent to 42 margin over McCain; in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, released last night, Obama leads 47 percent to 41.

While both campaigns are heavily engaged on television in most of these states, it's not immediately clear from the data what accounted for McCain's rapid rise -- particularly in Minnesota and Colorado.

One possible reason is the campaign's focus over the last month on the war in Iraq and national security concerns more broadly. McCain's campaign has hammered home the idea that Obama was mistaken in his opposition to the surge of U.S. troops last year and is wrong now about his proposed 16-month timetable for withdrawing troops.

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Voters in all four states seem to agree. Asked whether they would prefer a "fixed date" for withdrawal or to "keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable," majorities in all four states preferred the latter option despite the fact that similar majorities in each state say that America was wrong to go to war in Iraq.

Those results suggest that while Obama's initial opposition to the war plays well with voters, his plan to remove troops from the country within 16 months of taking office as president is less well received. Obama's plan did, however, receive a major boost earlier this week when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said his government would like U.S Forces to be out of the country by 2010.

Other internal numbers in the battleground polls are less rosy for McCain. Nearly one-quarter of voters in each of the four states said McCain's age -- he will be 72 at the time of the election -- makes them less likely to vote for him. Numbers like that may put more pressure on McCain to pick someone considerably younger than him -- Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minn.) or Sen. John Thune (S.D.) -- as his vice presidential running mate.

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VP Hot Sheet: CBSNews.com Tracks Veepstakes Buzz:
McCain's Top 10 Contenders
Obama's Top 10 Contenders

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The national political environment -- as reflected in these four statewide polls -- also seems to suggest major hurdles for McCain in the fall. President George W. Bush remains a decidedly unpopular figure to the general public with no more than 31 percent in any of the four states approving of the job he is doing. The numbers are even more daunting among self-identified independents who typically make up the swing vote in a presidential election. In Colorado, where independents have traditionally leaned toward Republicans, seven in ten unaffiliated voters expressed disapproval with the job Bush is doing. Those numbers are nearly identical in each of the other three states.

The polls also reveal widespread pessimism about the future of the country -- never a good sign for the candidate running under the party banner of the incumbent. In Minnesota, just one in five voters called themselves very or somewhat satisfied with "the way things are going in the nation today" while a whopping 77 percent pronounced themselves dissatisfied. The outlook was even worse in the other three states, with dissatisfied voters at 78 percent in Colorado, 81 percent in Wisconsin, and 84 percent in Michigan.

However, independents generally were far more evenly divided between Obama and McCain than in last month's Quinnipiac/washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal surveys.

A month ago, Obama led McCain among Independents by anywhere from 21 points (Minnesota) to eight points (Michigan). In the most recent set of data, McCain actually outperforms Obama by three points among independents in Michigan while losing that crucial voting bloc far more narrowly in Colorado (Obama +8), Minnesota (Obama +8) and Wisconsin (Obama +9).

Two of the states in the battleground surveys -- Minnesota and Colorado -- are also playing host to high profile Senate races. In each, the news is good for Republicans.

In Minnesota, Sen. Norm Coleman has built a 53 percent to 38 percent edge over entertainer Al Franken -- thanks in no small part to a series of gaffes by the former "Saturday Night Live" star. In Colorado, former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) has pulled into a dead heat with Rep. Mark Udall (D), an affirmation of Republicans' insistence that the contest will be among the closest in the country.

[ariel133]

For all the media''s attention and all those who don''t understand that Obama is not qualified and still support him,- the contest is a "dead heat"- go figure. LMAO. MCCAIN 2008-2012

[ariel133]

Obama has been making a mock of his race, Think about this:
If Obama didn''t win the primary would he still tell Reverend Wright to go away?

I am appalled with those who do not see reality- it is very difficult to understand others who dwell in the hypocrisy and ignore Obama''s inexperiance.

Honestly, the media will look like a bunch fools when this is over, * when MCCAIN wins.

It still won''t feel any less disappointing in the world where journalism
is suppose to have better standards.

[pr_boxer]

Apparently Ariel133 is "not qualified" to read the article: he missed this part:

National polling suggests Obama retains a steady but statistically significant edge. In the most recent Washington Post/ABC News survey, Obama held a 50 percent to 42 margin over McCain; in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, released last night, Obama leads 47 percent to 41.

[pr_boxer]

George Bush has 8 years experience at being President and the mess hes made indicates anyone barely literate could do better.

If anyone can see where McCain is any better than the current ignoramus in the White House please let us know!

[aldon61]

Polls at this time are meaningless. After the conventions and starting two weeks before the general, then they begin to mean something, but they''re still not a predictor of the american electorate. Our last two general elections should have embarrassed all pollsters.

[ariel133]

The sad reality of this trip is that Sen. Obama has now left Iraq more cemented in his ill-advised positions than ever before. He was willing to throw scraps to commanders and troops (%u201Cgood job, guys%u201D) but sought every opportunity to confirm that his policy views - which are as outdated as cassette tapes - had not changed.

The next question, then, is: Who will fact-check the fact-finder? Sen. Obama managed to praise the surge (which he fervently opposed), all the while calling for timelines, degrading Iraqi leaders, and pretending that al-Qaeda in Iraq doesn%u2019t exist. "

HIS HEAD IS MORE THAN IN THE SAND, IT IS EMPTY LIKE HIS SUIT.

[notblue]

This trend will continue.

[notblue]

This trend will continue.

[notblue]

This trend will continue.

[steeepe]

If McBush has gained that much in those states, it just goes to show that many people like what''s happened in the last 7 years and want it to continue. Too bad we have to share a country with them. Never underestimate the ignorance of the American public....

[fleura-2009]

All Republicans,

McCain plans on "Rudy Juiliani" as VP. HucKabee would not consider this position because he deserves to be the RNC Candidate.

I am Fleura, A True Democrat, and I approve this message!

[fleura-2009]

All Republicans,

McCain plans on "Rudy Juiliani" as VP. HucKabee would not consider this position because he deserves to be the RNC Candidate.

I am Fleura, A True Democrat, and I approve this message!

[fleura-2009]

All Republicans,

McCain plans on "Rudy Juiliani" as VP. HucKabee would not consider this position because he deserves to be the RNC Candidate.

I am Fleura, A True Democrat, and I approve this message!

[fleura-2009]

All Republicans,

McCain plans on "Rudy Juiliani" as VP. HucKabee would not consider this position because he deserves to be the RNC Candidate and HucKabee is the brains of the RNC, but they are all not smart enough to know it.

I am Fleura, A True Democrat, and I approve this message!

[realpatriot1]

notblue,

There''s no trend here. This is one set of polls which is contradicted by the plethora of other polls. The article doesn''t state the error margins, the polling base, or precisely when the poll was conducted.

What the polls as a group show is that the balance of power is held by the undecideds and that while either candidate can win by making a better appeal to those voters, McCain has to win them decisively-if he splits the undecideds he loses the Electoral College.

[Gary Kempf]

McCain Makes Gains In Four Key States;

That is simple to explain, You can''t fix stupid....

[notblue]

realpatriot, do and say whatever you have to make sense of your imaginary world, just know I could care less.

[drputt45]

Why is it that if you are not a democrat and Obama supporter that you are either racists, stupid or anti-American? Is it just that democrats can only support their party by putting other people down that do not agree with them? Some lack of intelligence there.

It would be good to read blogs that stuck to the content of the news items as opposed to attacking others that are commenting on the subject.

[jdmo2]

I don''t have faith in CBS anymore. Editing McCain blunders and reporting only polls McCain wins.

Did anyone notice the giant red EXON MOBIL ads over over this web page?

Could CBS want McCain to win because he supports drilling? Pleaseeee....this is so obvious.

[abepagota]

I too have lost faith in CBS and it''s shame. I''ve been watching since the sixties.

[libh8er]

LOL....I get it.....a lead for a democrat is a LEAD, but a lead for a republican is a ''small lead''. Hilarious!!!!! The LAMEstream media at it again!!

[oneamerican_]

Here is what Barack Obama had to say today when hecklers shouted him down for 10 minutes while he visited the Western Wall in the Old City of Jerusalem:

"You know I was expecting more reverence." said Obama.

No doubt he expected more reverence for himself, the self-proclaimed Messiah.

Typical liberal elitist - pompous arrogance.

[hasher471]

I''m happy for the old guy.
He''s deserves some happiness :-)

[rltw175b]

hey does mcsurge still think checkoslavia a country?

[rltw175b]

just before hillary lost she complain about the media, mcsurge should complain some more and see what happens.. ha ha ha

are we still in the mental recession?

[omega39-2009]

notblue,

There''''s no trend here. This is one set of polls which is contradicted by the plethora of other polls. The article doesn''''t state the error margins, the polling base, or precisely when the poll was conducted.

What the polls as a group show is that the balance of power is held by the undecideds and that while either candidate can win by making a better appeal to those voters, McCain has to win them decisively-if he splits the undecideds he loses the Electoral College.


Posted by realpatriot1

Additionally, Obama spent much less on airtime in June while McCain spent more. Look for Obama to continue to raise large amounts of money and easily outspend McCain and the RNC. Look for McCain and the RNC to hold more debt than Hillary''s campaign by the time Obama is sworn in. ROFL!

[notblue]

omega39, Obama doesn''t have to spend money on air time since the libeal biased, Obama loving, mainstream media makes him their centerpoint EVERY DAY! Do you people have a television? Is it on????

[promaclaura]

I believe Barack''s appeal is going to continue to dwindle as more people start to pay attention to what the candidates platform is, rather than how they appear. While it is true that most polls show Barack ahead, analyst''s are continuing to ask why he isn''t farther ahead. This election statistically should be a slam-dunk for him. The opposing party of the President usually does win after a party held the office for 8 years. So Barack should be farther ahead, moderates are holding their opinion because they need to know more about Barack. This is why media coverage of Barack is so high (although he is the media darling). I think people are content with their knowledge of John McCain, he has served his country and been a prominent member of our government. People will not be surprised by McCain, and are still wondering if Barack is holding anymore surprises. I think that the far-left has been surprised by his move to the middle to appeal to moderates and it could prove to bitter a pill. John has alway''s been in the middle much to conversatives dismay, I''m still going to vote for McCain because his house is built on rock. Barack''s sifting sand is just plain scary.

[promaclaura]

just before hillary lost she complain about the media, mcsurge should complain some more and see what happens.. ha ha ha

are we still in the mental recession?

Posted by RLTW175B at 01:46 PM : Jul 24, 2008

I am no Hillary fan, but the constant barrage of Barack Lovefest really turned me off. I actually felt sorry for Hillary because of the bias. So if the liberal media can change my overall dislike for Hillary because being unFair and noBalance it will be interesting to see if it will backfire for Barack and send the undecided into his corner.

[minuteman-4]

Starting to look like the O express train to nowhere is about to crash and de-rail

[promaclaura]

McCain has been a loser all his life. Born into wealth and pampered through the military; he claims to have the ability to lead this nation.
He was a party boy before and after Annapolis; graduated almost at the bottom of his class, crashed during pilot training and still graduated pilot training. Lost a plane while on a pleasure trip to a football game, cheated on his wife and people see him as a leader.
Posted by k2345 at 02:21 PM : Jul 24, 2008

It''s a given that people make blunders when they are younger. Barack was a party boy too, graduating almost near the bottom does not diminish the accomplishment in graduating, and crashing airplanes is not a goal of a pilot (can Barack fly a plane?), finally Bill Clinton cheated on Hillary repeatedly and their supporters downplayed that saying it is not pertinent to the office. So I think your arguement is hogwash. Make note that I don''t revert to insulting Barack when I post, so why is your method of trying to sway people''s opinion based on mud-slinging?

[steeepe]

John has alway''''s been in the middle much to conversatives dismay, I''''m still going to vote for McCain because his house is built on rock. Barack''''s sifting sand is just plain scary.
Posted by ProMacLaura at 02:10 PM

Built on rock? McBush''s stands on everything have shifted all over the place. If you like what the Republicans have done in 7 years, by all means vote for McBush and you''ll certainly get more of the same moralistic social policies and economic policies that favor the very wealthy at the expense of the middle class. The trickle-down theory has been discredited. The GOP exists only to try to validate greed and selfishness. Their only platform is cut taxes (while borrowing huge amounts of money from China and other countries that causes enormous interest on the debt that our taxes pay for) and let the government decide your personal behavior. Oh, and keep government out of our economic affairs.

[promaclaura]

Oh, and keep government out of our economic affairs.

Posted by steeepe at 02:38 PM : Jul 24, 2008

Democrat''s are alway''s in our economic affairs, huge entitlement programs are proof of that. Economic prof''s state that trickle down policies work. Look how well Clinton looked due to Reagan and Bush. CEO''S of companies are what gives the average joe a bad taste in the mouth. Being married to a CPA/Financial Controller for american manufacturers has laid bare before me how companies work. Tax breaks for companies promote raises, more jobs, better training and better insurance it''s just fact. When companies are taxed for entitlement programs it actually backfires for middle-class workers (lay-offs, no hiring, loss of insurance and no training programs). The saying that companies pass off any raised taxes on the consumer and workers is true.

Also, I like that McCain has changed his stance on issues, it shows he listens. My mentioning his house being built on rock is reference to his years in the service of our country. Over the years, John was the most-liked republican by the democrat''s because he worked with all, I like that.

[promaclaura]

Barack will definetly get a boost, he had a good photo-op and pictures hold sway for many. It''s o.k. that they looked like they liked him, but their not voting for him.

[promaclaura]

You forgot to mention Nader causing his havoc. Running an anti-war campaign will hold sway for those who believed that Barack was the no-war candidate.

[vranger]

"Democrat''''s are alway''''s in our economic affairs, huge entitlement programs are proof of that. Economic prof''''s state that trickle down policies work. Look how well Clinton looked due to Reagan and Bush. CEO''''S of companies are what gives the average joe a bad taste in the mouth. Being married to a CPA/Financial Controller for american manufacturers has laid bare before me how companies work. Tax breaks for companies promote raises, more jobs, better training and better insurance it''''s just fact. When companies are taxed for entitlement programs it actually backfires for middle-class workers (lay-offs, no hiring, loss of insurance and no training programs). The saying that companies pass off any raised taxes on the consumer and workers is true."

**************************************

EXACTLY! Every election cycle the Democratic candidate bashes big business as the enemy of the common man. This belies the fact that without those businesses, those ''common men'' have no jobs and careeers. Are the Democrats just too stupid to understand this? No. They understand it perfectly, but they think their lie sways voters, and they stick to it every time.

[promaclaura]

If Barack does not choose Hillary as his V.P. has does that effect his standing?

[rosieod4prez]

"Republican John McCain has quickly closed the gap between himself and Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama in several key battleground states even as the Arizona senator struggles to break through the wall-to-wall coverage of Obama''s trip to Europe and the Middle East this week. - article



People are starting to see Obama for what he is. They are starting to recognize that he will say anything to the current crowd. It doesn''t matter if he contradicts what he said to the folks in the last city, they aren''t there to see that he is a flip-flopping flam-flam man.



Hmmmm..... yet inspite of the liberal press, McCain makes gains. Yup, it is true, you can''t hold down a good man. And, you can fool some of the people all the time and all the people some of the time; but, Obama, you can''t fool all the people all the time.

[starleo146]

If Barack does not choose Hillary as his V.P. has does that effect his standing?

Posted by ProMacLaura at 03:21 PM : Jul 24, 2008


Yep, it shows you never do what everyone expects, just do the right thing, and if he does that he has nothing to fear.We have lived the last eight years in so much chaos, and the doing what a party expects, look where we are.

[rosieod4prez]

Why starleo14672 - I thought you claimed to be an independent.


Dems shoulda nominated...

[starleo146]

don''''t have faith in CBS anymore. Editing McCain blunders and reporting only polls McCain wins.

Did anyone notice the giant red EXON MOBIL ads over over this web page?

Could CBS want McCain to win because he supports drilling? Pleaseeee....this is so obvious.

Posted by JDMO2 at 01:18 PM : Jul 24, 200

CBS is glad to let everyone think they are the liberal press, but the CEO, Bob Shaifer, who had Mc Bush on so many times I Wanted them to change Face The Nation TO THE Bob AND John SHOW Katy Couric are all republicans. And fox news had over 600,000 petions saying there bias reporting has to stop with the lies

[promaclaura]

I wouldn''t count Hillary supporters out, many are as mad as a hornet and they''re watching the media continue its favorable coverage of Barack. I don''t think that is the way to pacify it only adds salt to the wounds. I can''t tell you the name of the organization but it is something like "Hillary supporters for McCain". I don''t know, maybe they think that will get her in the White House in 2012 or they just plain think he is closer to Hillary''s policies than Barack.

[starleo146]

Why starleo14672 - I thought you claimed to be an independent.


Dems shoulda nominated...

Posted by RosieOd4Prez at 03:28 PM : Jul 24, 2008

I am an independent and I am independently voting for Obama Mc Bush is Bush and had enough of that

[alohaone1]

With the war in Iraq has come to a success after the SURGE , with the conflict in AFganishtan heating up , with Iran continual playing with the World community , with Russia threaten to move Nuclear bomber into Cuba , it is clear that we need Mc Cain in the White House . The President of the United STates is a demanding job and is not the job for a 3 year junior senator . The youngest President who was up to the task was JFK , who is a 12 year senator and who was already a WAR HERO by the time is run and who is clearly better at policies and where he was heading than BArrack Obama , with his empty rhetorics. Obama has shown his incompetence in opposing the Surge , when faced with a difficult situation , one that needed solved , he chose to cut and run , well , we all know how that played out in Vietnam. Obama also lack judgements in friends like Rev. Wright , Bill Ayers , father Flaeger, Tony Retzko...and his 20 years membership with Trinity . If he has such good judgement why the 20 year association and why the denouncement at the end ? Obama is not up to the task , the Media created him and wanted to force it down to the Americans'' throat . People will wake up and fight this injustice!

[promaclaura]

Alot of democrat''s were voted into congress based on GW''s image, knowing the picture was like waving a red flag in front of a bull. The approval rating of this same congress is less that GW''s. It just shows that blind anger voting does not alway''s elect the best candidate. It''s hard to watch a party run their election against George Bush again. I wish they would give John McCain a fair shake, doesn''t his moderate standing over the years outshine the year''s GW was in office?

[alohaone1]

Young presidents who has been able to handle the difficult jobs:
1/ JFK: 12 years SEnator , WAr Hero.
2/ Bill clinton: 2 term governor .

Obama can not compare to these 2 above , yet , he talks and acts like he is Ronald REagan ( who single-handedly took on the Soviet Union) . Such Arrogance is not a good trait for a young and inexperient Senator , who is untested so far and who has shown misjudgements times and again in his friends and in the Surge and worst yet , he has shown that he is incapable of admitting mistakes , he thinks that he is always right and when he is wrong , he dances around it ....No Obama!

[ixoye_02]

I think McCain is getting a fair shake. If McCain cannot distinguish/distance himself from the policies of GW Bush, then that is McCain''s problem. I''ve talked to many voters in my area. And for many of them, McCain represents more of Bush''s policies.
For those who are saying that Obama lacks judgement because of who he calls "friend", then I would offer GW Bush''s friends like Karl Rove, oil industry execs, and perhaps some of the disgraced republican reps/senators who have displayed their own moral deficits. Let''s look at McCains friends then and see that McCain probably has friends with questionable character or controversial views. Guilty by association applies to everyone, if you want to hold that standard. And nobody comes out smelling clean if we applied that standard.

[promaclaura]

John McCain''s appeal cover''s both sides of the aisle and he can call Democrat''s his friends just as easily as Republican''s. If we want our government to work together in this crazy world then John''s the man. Barack''s a nice guy, but his policy''s will continue the great divide of this country.

[promaclaura]

Did you see that the NY Times refused John McCain'' Op-ed piece on the same subject Obama''s was about published the week before. The NY Times said John''s piece had to altered to fit their parameter''s. I thought these type of news stories were supposed to come from the man himself, not the news organizations. That is far from being a fair shake.

[aldon61]

he has shown that he is incapable of admitting mistakes , he thinks that he is always right and when he is wrong , he dances around it.


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Posted by alohaone1 at 03:51 PM : Jul 24, 2008
+ report abuse

You know who you''re describing, don''t cha? GEORGE W. BUSH!!