New Hampshire, a state whose commitment to a philosophy of rugged individualism is displayed in its "Live Free Or Die" motto, is the only state in liberal New England in which John McCain can realistically expect to be competitive. In 2004, the state went narrowly to Democrat John Kerry, of neighboring Massachusetts; in 2000, by a small margin, voters chose George W. Bush over Al Gore.

Mr. Bush wasn't the first choice of those who voted in the state's 2000 Republican primary, however: McCain defeated Mr. Bush in that contest, a victory that almost propelled him to the GOP nomination. McCain's also won the state's primary this year. Barack Obama, meanwhile, saw his Iowa caucuses momentum halted in the Granite State when rival Hillary Clinton took the state's first-in-the-nation primary.

Independents, who make up more than 40 percent of the state's electorate, will be key in determining who takes New Hampshire's four electoral votes. McCain's "maverick" image plays well New Hampshire, but the state has been trending Democratic: In 2006, all of the major races in the state went to the Democrats, and statistics suggest a leftward shift in the state, due in part to an influx of relatively liberal residents originally from out-of-state.