July 18, 2008
Is There An Election "Enthusiasm Gap"?
CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: If There Is One, Does It Matter?
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Play CBS Video Video Obama Leads In Latest Poll John McCain faces an uphill battle against Barack Obama, who is leading in many polling categories. Jeff Greenfield takes a closer look at what the polls say about the upcoming electoral campaign.
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(CBS/iStockphoto)
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News Tools Poll Database Search for results from the latest CBS News national polls on the president, the campaign and more.
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Podcast Poll Positions Listen to CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic dissect the data to see what's driving public opinion.
The most extraordinary difference between the supporters of John McCain and Barack Obama is in what we have chosen to label “enthusiasm.” The latest CBS News/New York Times Poll, completed on July 14, shows Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. That’s only six points. And more than one in three registered voters either admit that their minds aren’t completely made up, or that they are truly undecided about their preference.
But the voters who have made a choice display an “enthusiasm gap” that overwhelms differences in support.
This enthusiasm gap can be seen in larger crowds at rallies, as well as in greater fundraising. Journalists - and voters - sense this kind of enthusiasm, too. By 53 percent to 30 percent, voters say they expect Obama to win.
However, each candidate has problems motivating some of his partisans. The least satisfied of McCain’s supporters are conservatives and evangelicals - the same groups with whom (exit polls showed) he had trouble in the primaries. And Obama still has to go some distance to capture the enthusiasm of former Clinton supporters, six in ten of whom are now supporting Obama, but not necessarily with enthusiasm. Just 29 percent of that group are enthusiastic about their current choice.
Strength of support or level of enthusiasm can sometimes make a difference in an election, as the candidate who wins is often the candidate whose supporters care most about winning.
In late July, 2004, even AFTER that year’s Democratic Convention and before the Republicans met, John Kerry’s supporters were a lot less committed to their candidate than supporters of George W. Bush were committed to theirs. Sixty percent of Bush voters said they “strongly” favored their candidate; just 47 percent of Kerry’s supporters said that. There was another motivation for many Kerry voters - 28 percent said they were voting for Kerry mostly because they disliked Bush. Strength-of-support numbers pretty much stayed the same for the rest of the campaign. Even in polls taken just before the 2004 election there wasn’t much difference: 67 percent of Bush voters said they supported him strongly, compared with just 49 percent of Kerry voters. And while 37 percent of likely Republican voters said they would be “excited” by a Bush win, just 24 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would be “excited” by a Kerry victory.Poll Database
Search recent CBS News campaign polls.
This year, in the CBS News Poll conducted right before the New Hampshire Primary, there were signs that Hillary Clinton’s support was much stronger than the simple horserace numbers suggested. (As in every other poll conducted right before that primary, the CBS News Poll showed Obama ahead; yet, as we now all know, Clinton won that contest). We asked New Hampshire Democratic primary voters this question: “Would you say you like [Clinton/Obama] a great deal better than any other Democratic candidate for President, somewhat better than any other candidate, or only a little better than any other candidate?” Clinton had the edge in the share of her voters who were intense; 36 percent said they liked her “a great deal better” than any other candidate in New Hampshire, while just 26 percent of Obama supporters said they liked him a great deal better than the others.
Caring a lot can translate into activity for a candidate - more than half of Clinton supporters in New Hampshire (55 percent) said they had recommended Clinton to other voters, while just 44 percent of Obama supporters had done that.
So, yes, there is an “enthusiasm gap” in this year’s election - and enthusiasm certainly helps to get out the vote. Clinton won the New Hampshire primary. Bush beat Kerry in 2004, and Obama is now leading McCain.
By Kathy Frankovic
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
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See all 55 CommentsI want MORE Wars to get cheap OIL for my SUV (hey I don''t have to fight in the war, and it don''t cost me anything except higher taxes, so why not steal as much oil as we can)/
I want MORE tax cuts for the rich, so their money can trickle down to me. I like driving past their Mansions and seeing their nice estates.
I want MORE global warming - hey I live in the northern states and it gets too cold in the winter. Besides, without the ice it will be easier to drill for Oil in the Arctic Wilderness Areas.
I want MORE tough and powerful presidents, w who aren''t afraid to torture (but just don''t call it that), or spy on us to keep us safe, or tell a few white lies like WMDs if thats what it takes to get the job done.
I want MORE Corporate Welfare and MORE laws written by corporate lobbyists. Whats good for the multinational corporations is good for us. After all they create jobs all over the world.
I want MORE of the SAME so I support McCain!!!!
Mccain is the loser , just like the lost wars he started,
Obama is the next president
DEAL WITH IT PERIOD!
But people have seen that the war-mongering, industry-deregulation, billionaire-favoring policies of the Neocon Republicans has produced disaster after disaster.
All the Repubs have left are tired old war horses like John McCain, and splinter group crackpots like Mitt Romney. Hard for anyone to be enthusiastic about a couple of losers like that.
And lose they will. Suck it up, Repubs!
Oh, and about polls: Polls that show Obama slightly ahead actually show McCain in the lead. The polls get Obama''s popularity with actual voters wrong - regularly. Americans will not put a guy one-half of whose family is Moslem and actually lives in Africa in the Oval Office. Obama is an accidental American. He was accidentally born on our soil. Otherwise, he is a foreigner. His brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, and cousins literally live in Africa today. He has no gut knowledge of what most Americans feel or think. Can''t you just see the Democratic dog (cat?) fight in the Democratic Party for the nomination to run against President McCain in 2012? Hillary and Obama again. Except this time the Clintons will have the gloves off.
When Hitler came to power, one of his first acts was the eleimination of his political opponents -- socialists, communists, Marxists, labor leaders and other left-wingers.
Next, he turned his attention to the people he considered to be the second-greatest threat to Germany.
It wasn''t the Jews.
Or Gipsies.
Or homosexuals.
No, the groups that were the next-greatest threat to the purity of his glorious German Master-race were the mentally-retarded and the feeble-minded.
Idiots, imbeciles, half-wits, simpletons, morons and cretins.
People just like you, babooph.
Posted by lottobee at 10:06 PM : Jul 18, 2008
***How can you believe in Mccain? You say he has a proven record? a record of what, trying to pass amnesty for over 12 million illegals to get citizenship and take over our jobs here in the US? How is that for trust? I hate Mccain! I don''t necessarily like Obama, But I Really hate mccain! Mccain can''t even offer ONE idea that is different than what Bush has been trying to force us to do over the past 8 years. The system isn''t working right now, we need a change. Don''t vote for Amnesty Mccain. Vote for Obama!
Posted by RowdyWicca
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****************** And Rowdy, once again, presents us with a bit more evidence to prove that the dumbing down of America has been an outstanding success!
Posted by truthmatterz at 11:47 PM : Jul 18, 2008
*** why Rowdy! Why? Why would you support amnesty mccain over Obama? Why do you care so much even if Obama would have a conection to Islamic people even though he doesn''t? Obama can''t just let Muslim people walk into the USA and seize power. On the other hand though, Mccain does want to vote to allow over 12 million illegals to become citizens! So if you want our country to fall, and become the next spanish speaking country... then vote for Amnesty Mccain. But if you want American to be strong and free, and English speaking, then vote Obama!
Posted by tylenol6 at 09:30 PM : Jul 18, 2008
+ report abuse
*** i agree, we should have had other candidates, from both parties. But i''m 110 percent sure I will vote for Obama. I hate mccain more than I hate Obama, so i''m voting for Obama just to show Mccain and Republicans that I DO NOT SUPPORT And will NOT tolerate a candidate that supports amnesty like mccain! I hate mccain more than bush, and that is saying alot! I hope Obama wins in a landslide!
Posted by RowdyWicca
******************************************************** And Rowdy, once again, presents us with a bit more evidence to prove that the dumbing down of America has been an outstanding success!
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Posted by clovisbuford at 08:30 PM : Jul 18, 2008
Hate to burst your bubble, but it ain''t gonna happen!
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Posted by libsluv2Spi1 at 07:55 PM : Jul 18, 2008
Yeah, and Obama wants to go have a love in with the kind of idiots that did it!
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See all 55 Comments