July 18, 2008

Is There An Election "Enthusiasm Gap"?

CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: If There Is One, Does It Matter?

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(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.
The most extraordinary difference between the supporters of John McCain and Barack Obama is in what we have chosen to label “enthusiasm.” The latest CBS News/New York Times Poll, completed on July 14, shows Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. That’s only six points. And more than one in three registered voters either admit that their minds aren’t completely made up, or that they are truly undecided about their preference.

But the voters who have made a choice display an “enthusiasm gap” that overwhelms differences in support.

  • Asked how they feel about the fact that their choice is the party’s nominee, 50 percent of Obama’s current voters say they are “enthusiastic.” Just 16 percent of McCain’s supporters say that about his candidacy. And while more than half of McCain voters are “satisfied” with McCain, 15 percent say they are “dissatisfied” or even “angry” that he is the nominee!

  • How important is it that their candidate wins in November? It matters more to Obama voters: 37 percent of them say an Obama victory is “extremely important” to them, compared with 24 percent of McCain voters who say so about a McCain victory. Adding in those who think a victory by the person they are voting for is “very important” but not necessarily “extremely important” 69 percent of Obama voters - but only 53 percent of McCain voters - say it matters that much.

  • Are voters satisfied with their options? Historically, about half of all voters will say they wish there were more choices; and this year is no different. But again, there is a party divide. Two out of three Obama supporters are satisfied; just 29 percent want more candidates in the race. But the percentages are reversed among McCain voters: 60 percent of them wish there were more options, while only 29 percent are satisfied with the choices of only McCain and Obama.

  • Even when it comes to paying attention to the campaign, there is a gap. Fifty-nine percent of Obama voters say they are paying “a lot” of attention, compared with 51 percent of McCain voters.

    This enthusiasm gap can be seen in larger crowds at rallies, as well as in greater fundraising. Journalists - and voters - sense this kind of enthusiasm, too. By 53 percent to 30 percent, voters say they expect Obama to win.

    However, each candidate has problems motivating some of his partisans. The least satisfied of McCain’s supporters are conservatives and evangelicals - the same groups with whom (exit polls showed) he had trouble in the primaries. And Obama still has to go some distance to capture the enthusiasm of former Clinton supporters, six in ten of whom are now supporting Obama, but not necessarily with enthusiasm. Just 29 percent of that group are enthusiastic about their current choice.

    Strength of support or level of enthusiasm can sometimes make a difference in an election, as the candidate who wins is often the candidate whose supporters care most about winning.

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    In late July, 2004, even AFTER that year’s Democratic Convention and before the Republicans met, John Kerry’s supporters were a lot less committed to their candidate than supporters of George W. Bush were committed to theirs. Sixty percent of Bush voters said they “strongly” favored their candidate; just 47 percent of Kerry’s supporters said that. There was another motivation for many Kerry voters - 28 percent said they were voting for Kerry mostly because they disliked Bush. Strength-of-support numbers pretty much stayed the same for the rest of the campaign. Even in polls taken just before the 2004 election there wasn’t much difference: 67 percent of Bush voters said they supported him strongly, compared with just 49 percent of Kerry voters. And while 37 percent of likely Republican voters said they would be “excited” by a Bush win, just 24 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would be “excited” by a Kerry victory.

    This year, in the CBS News Poll conducted right before the New Hampshire Primary, there were signs that Hillary Clinton’s support was much stronger than the simple horserace numbers suggested. (As in every other poll conducted right before that primary, the CBS News Poll showed Obama ahead; yet, as we now all know, Clinton won that contest). We asked New Hampshire Democratic primary voters this question: “Would you say you like [Clinton/Obama] a great deal better than any other Democratic candidate for President, somewhat better than any other candidate, or only a little better than any other candidate?” Clinton had the edge in the share of her voters who were intense; 36 percent said they liked her “a great deal better” than any other candidate in New Hampshire, while just 26 percent of Obama supporters said they liked him a great deal better than the others.

    Caring a lot can translate into activity for a candidate - more than half of Clinton supporters in New Hampshire (55 percent) said they had recommended Clinton to other voters, while just 44 percent of Obama supporters had done that.

    So, yes, there is an “enthusiasm gap” in this year’s election - and enthusiasm certainly helps to get out the vote. Clinton won the New Hampshire primary. Bush beat Kerry in 2004, and Obama is now leading McCain.

    By Kathy Frankovic
    © MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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    Add a Comment See all 55 Comments
    by questionnews July 18, 2008 4:30 PM PDT
    Is There An Election "Enthusiasm Gap"?

    Only about the candidates!
    It''s like being given the choise of how you want to be put to death.
    Reply to this comment
    by ariel133 July 18, 2008 4:31 PM PDT
    THE ONLY GAP IS THE KNOWLEDGE THAT IS LACKING IN THE MIND OF OBAMA.
    IF YOU WANT GUNGHO CHEERS AND JEERS GO TO A FOOTBALL GAME- EVENTUALLY YOU WILL TIRE OUT.
    Reply to this comment
    by whitepicks2 July 18, 2008 5:03 PM PDT
    It''s must be hard for Rs to be enthusiastic about more of the same........and an old curmudgeon who smells of cabbage.
    Reply to this comment
    by rowdywicca July 18, 2008 5:13 PM PDT
    Sorry, I can''t get enthused about elected an Islamofast hugger of people who strap bombs on themselves and murder their perceived enemies and drive planes into American buildings and murder thousand of people at work! Or round up their people in churches, set a torch to it and machete them as they run out, like Raila Odinga, Obama''s loving relative did.

    If that''s all the democrats offer, they can eat ***** and die!
    Reply to this comment
    by talkingham July 18, 2008 5:24 PM PDT
    Yeah, you''re so right, let''s have 8 more years of a lying Bush republican so our economy can be completely sold off to China and India. In fact, cancel the election, let''s just keep Bush, the biggest Islamic hugger of them all.

    Why is it that Michael Moore is the only person in the US media who has guts enough to point out just how close the Bushes and the Saudis were and are!
    Reply to this comment
    by randynason July 18, 2008 5:39 PM PDT
    McCain''s supporters get a kick out of metamucil and ex-lax. Yuh... I''d say there''s a gap- a BIG one. HUGE.
    -heh-
    Reply to this comment
    by gracchus1 July 18, 2008 5:48 PM PDT
    No s**t! McCain is about as exciting as watching grass grow on a Sunday morning, and Obama is proving to be an empty, centrist, corporate schill. I don''t see how people can be excited about either of these guys. I am not.
    Reply to this comment
    by questionnews July 18, 2008 5:55 PM PDT
    Is none of the above an option??
    Reply to this comment
    by rowdywicca2 July 18, 2008 5:56 PM PDT
    Is There An Election "Enthusiasm Gap"
    yeah you could call it that, old white racist trash from the south living in a trailer with there rebel flags
    Reply to this comment
    by Torilin July 18, 2008 6:00 PM PDT
    If that''''s all the democrats offer, they can eat ***** and die!


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    Posted by RowdyWicca
    wow and you used to support the Clintons, now talking %&^** about the democrats. LOL what a flip floping moron?
    Reply to this comment
    by sandy19731 July 18, 2008 6:03 PM PDT
    RowdyWicca2,
    If you believe the hate you are spewing you are a sad, lonely, and delusional person.If you don''t believe it you are just mean for saying it.
    Reply to this comment
    by lovesamerica July 18, 2008 6:19 PM PDT
    I don''t want to vote for either! What about the wizard huh? sure he was a liar, but man HE got the job done!!!!
    Reply to this comment
    by mr2258 July 18, 2008 6:24 PM PDT
    Anyone that votes for Obama is anti American.
    Reply to this comment
    by cbsfan73 July 18, 2008 6:32 PM PDT
    It''s like being enthusiastic about eating manure.
    Reply to this comment
    by drivelphobe July 18, 2008 6:37 PM PDT
    The next fours years of the Presidency might be the most important in years and we have two arrogant, pandering, power seekers as candidates. The country''s survival is at risk here as well as civil order. In my lifetime, this is the worst in terms of preserving our nation''s security, sovereignty, culture, way of life, and the English language. Civil unrest is probable. We have to stop the influx of illegals in this country and we have to demand assimilation. The consequences of this current trend are disaster in the making.
    Reply to this comment
    by kansas1946 July 18, 2008 6:59 PM PDT
    This is the first time I have been enthusiastic about a candidate since Reagan''s first term. I was less enthusiastic his second term, but I am very enthusiastic about Obama. It feels good. :o)
    Reply to this comment
    by cold777 July 18, 2008 7:13 PM PDT
    I will be watching these networks because they actually provide the news as opposed to Fox Noise.
    Reply to this comment
    by cold777 July 18, 2008 7:14 PM PDT
    Anyone that votes for Obama is anti American.


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    Posted by mr2258
    ======================================================
    LOL! Don''t eat so much applesauce!
    Reply to this comment
    by libsluv2spi1 July 18, 2008 7:16 PM PDT
    there is only one gap, the gap in mccains a$$!
    Reply to this comment
    by libsluv2spi1 July 18, 2008 7:21 PM PDT
    any one that votes for mccain is in a mental recession
    Reply to this comment
    by rowdywicca July 18, 2008 7:43 PM PDT
    Yeah, there is some voting unenthusiam here.

    I can''t get up enough enthusiasm to vote for the Islamofast loving little bastward from Chicago at ALL! Every time I think of his loving relative Raila Odinga rounding their own people up in church, torching it, and then machete''ing them as they run out...and remember that Obama went over there and supported the SOB until Kenya had to file a complaint with our State Department, all I can see is the little Islamofast loving bastward with his turban on!

    And everytime I envision watching those people jump out of the WTC to keep from burning to death...and this little Islamofast bastward proposes he''s going to talk these idiots into peace...I can''t seem to drum up any enthusiasm at all for the DNC acting like the Chicago mafia and giving this bastward their nomination!

    So, Grandpa McCain it is!! He will defend this country with ALL it''s might! And...he has NO ties to these Islamofast crazy bastwards!
    Reply to this comment
    by libsluv2spi1 July 18, 2008 7:50 PM PDT
    RowdyWicca - are you some how related to Ann Coulter?
    Reply to this comment
    by cbs4me3 July 18, 2008 7:53 PM PDT
    John McCain supporters, including this Hillary Democrat, don''t need to display hoopla because we are patient and just waiting for election day to arrive. It ought to be explored if the enthusiasm for Obama is genuine, or did someone yell "Free Beer" and the college crowd came running? This could be misinterpreted as enthusiasm for Obama when it is just enthusisam because the beer is free and there is no responsibility or duty attached to get the free beer. Aw yes, I remember it well, but then I matured. One day these kids will grow up too.
    Reply to this comment
    by libsluv2spi1 July 18, 2008 7:55 PM PDT
    And everytime I envision watching those people jump out of the WTC to keep from burning to death...

    - bush was the president at the time!! he let that s.h.i.t. happen on his watch!! no one to blame but bush, he knock down those towers!!
    Reply to this comment
    by latrocinor-2009 July 18, 2008 7:55 PM PDT
    What election?
    Reply to this comment
    by latrocinor-2009 July 18, 2008 7:57 PM PDT

    ALL PEOPLE WITH GUTS AND PRIDE::::: do not watch CBS, NBC OR ABC DURING OBAMA''''S TRIP ABROAD.... DO NOT WATCH THESE THREE NETWORKS DURING THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION........

    Posted by fenner
    .. .. ..

    WSJ, BBC do just fine.

    I can''t watch FOX because they have to insert "shock and awe" in every sentence.
    Reply to this comment
    by libsluv2spi1 July 18, 2008 8:01 PM PDT
    CBS4me3 - old dogs like you F.u.c.k.ed up this country!! keep on kicking that can, the creeper is around the corner and waiting for you...
    Reply to this comment
    by libsluv2spi1 July 18, 2008 8:09 PM PDT
    McCain adviser Gramm leaves
    hey looks like mccain will be the next total failure!!
    Reply to this comment
    by it_oldtimer July 18, 2008 8:15 PM PDT
    Like I''ve said here before: McCain is merely a totally "disposable" candidate thrown into an un-winnable election.
    Reply to this comment
    by clovisbuford July 18, 2008 8:30 PM PDT
    John McCain supporters, including this Hillary Democrat, don''''t need to display hoopla because we are patient and just waiting for election day to arrive. It ought to be explored if the enthusiasm for Obama is genuine, or did someone yell "Free Beer" and the college crowd came running? One day these kids will grow up too.
    Posted by CBS4me3 at 07:53 PM : Jul 18, 2008
    as oneof those 52 yr.white male kids in texas ..when that democratic tsunammi in the fall rolls you republicans out of office , you will wonder about the time you spent on line pretending to be a hillary supporter,while hillary supporters join the rest of the democrats at the polls .
    Reply to this comment
    by kansas1946 July 18, 2008 8:39 PM PDT
    Anyone that votes for Obama is anti American.


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    Posted by mr2258
    ****************************************


    LMAO.
    Reply to this comment
    by kansas1946 July 18, 2008 8:47 PM PDT
    a month or two all three networks and msnbc claimed they were not being biased..... OKAY, NOW WHAT SAY THESE 3 NETWORKS????? the proof was always tangible, but evern moreso now!

    a disgrace.

    ALL PEOPLE WITH GUTS AND PRIDE::::: do not watch CBS, NBC OR ABC DURING OBAMA''''S TRIP ABROAD.... DO NOT WATCH THESE THREE NETWORKS DURING THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION........


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    Posted by fenner at 07:09 PM : Jul 18, 2008
    ******************************

    Please explain. I am not sure I understand why you think that.
    Reply to this comment
    by lordmi July 18, 2008 8:56 PM PDT
    how can they be enthusiastic, voting for old man, always forgetting facts, changing mind (there is a question - does he really have anything fresh in there).
    Would You expect enthusiasm from 18y.o. girl about her 70y.o. bride, forgetting her name from time to time, and NO money for her own in prelimentary?
    She better do NOT pick him, right?

    Same Gop non-enthusiastic voter.
    Go Obama!
    Reply to this comment
    by lordmi July 18, 2008 9:00 PM PDT
    to fenner and other - you, guys, sound angry. You know - why?
    because you are wrong.
    So You bosst in hysteric as there is NOTHING You can do for America to go forward.
    We will.
    And You may stay retire with McBush. maybe his wife wil give You few beer cans .
    relax: We are going forward.
    Reply to this comment
    by tylenol6 July 18, 2008 9:30 PM PDT
    Both candidates literally suck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I''m being nice, too.
    Reply to this comment
    by mr2258 July 18, 2008 9:36 PM PDT
    Germany blasts Obama.They will not allow Obama to speak at Brandenberg Gate.THANK YOU Germany...Going to buy a six pack of German beer,now.
    Reply to this comment
    by rowdywicca July 18, 2008 9:42 PM PDT
    - bush was the president at the time!! he let that s.h.i.t. happen on his watch!! no one to blame but bush, he knock down those towers!!



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    Posted by libsluv2Spi1 at 07:55 PM : Jul 18, 2008

    Yeah, and Obama wants to go have a love in with the kind of idiots that did it!
    Reply to this comment
    by rowdywicca July 18, 2008 9:43 PM PDT
    as oneof those 52 yr.white male kids in texas ..when that democratic tsunammi in the fall rolls you republicans out of office , you will wonder about the time you spent on line pretending to be a hillary supporter,while hillary supporters join the rest of the democrats at the polls .


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    Posted by clovisbuford at 08:30 PM : Jul 18, 2008

    Hate to burst your bubble, but it ain''t gonna happen!
    Reply to this comment
    by lottobee July 18, 2008 10:06 PM PDT
    Yeah, well, McCain isn''t too exciting but at least we know where he''s coming from and he has a proven record. The Bama is very exciting but he''s fizzling out and by November he won''t be looking so good to many of his supporters. I see many similarities between the Bama and the Bush --- lots of Hollywood Hype and little substance. Don''t see how he can be the agent of change when he''s just doing the Bush Dance all over again --- another new guy who really knows nothing --- and just runs on being "the new guy". If you remember the campaign of 2000 --- the guy who "won" was the guy who promised to change everything. So here we are in desperate shape after 8 yrs of the guy who was going to change everything. Ready for MORE change??? No thanks. I''ll stick with what I know and the man I can believe in.
    Reply to this comment
    by cold777 July 18, 2008 10:33 PM PDT
    lottobee: Bush had "Hollywood hype" when he ran? LOL! Too funny.....
    Reply to this comment
    by dnsallday July 18, 2008 11:47 PM PDT
    So, Grandpa McCain it is!! He will defend this country with ALL it''''s might! And...he has NO ties to these Islamofast crazy bastwards!

    Posted by RowdyWicca
    ******************************************************** And Rowdy, once again, presents us with a bit more evidence to prove that the dumbing down of America has been an outstanding success!
    Reply to this comment
    by cbsfan73 July 19, 2008 12:40 AM PDT
    Why can''t you be more enthusiastic? Now let''s see, do you want to eat elephant poop or donkey dung?
    Reply to this comment
    by trbundro1277 July 19, 2008 12:55 AM PDT
    Both candidates literally suck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I''''m being nice, too.
    Posted by tylenol6 at 09:30 PM : Jul 18, 2008
    + report abuse
    *** i agree, we should have had other candidates, from both parties. But i''m 110 percent sure I will vote for Obama. I hate mccain more than I hate Obama, so i''m voting for Obama just to show Mccain and Republicans that I DO NOT SUPPORT And will NOT tolerate a candidate that supports amnesty like mccain! I hate mccain more than bush, and that is saying alot! I hope Obama wins in a landslide!
    Reply to this comment
    by trbundro1277 July 19, 2008 12:58 AM PDT
    So, Grandpa McCain it is!! He will defend this country with ALL it''''''''s might! And...he has NO ties to these Islamofast crazy bastwards!

    Posted by RowdyWicca
    **************************************
    ****************** And Rowdy, once again, presents us with a bit more evidence to prove that the dumbing down of America has been an outstanding success!
    Posted by truthmatterz at 11:47 PM : Jul 18, 2008
    *** why Rowdy! Why? Why would you support amnesty mccain over Obama? Why do you care so much even if Obama would have a conection to Islamic people even though he doesn''t? Obama can''t just let Muslim people walk into the USA and seize power. On the other hand though, Mccain does want to vote to allow over 12 million illegals to become citizens! So if you want our country to fall, and become the next spanish speaking country... then vote for Amnesty Mccain. But if you want American to be strong and free, and English speaking, then vote Obama!
    Reply to this comment
    by trbundro1277 July 19, 2008 1:01 AM PDT
    Yeah, well, McCain isn''''t too exciting but at least we know where he''''s coming from and he has a proven record. The Bama is very exciting but he''''s fizzling out and by November he won''''t be looking so good to many of his supporters. I see many similarities between the Bama and the Bush --- lots of Hollywood Hype and little substance. Don''''t see how he can be the agent of change when he''''s just doing the Bush Dance all over again --- another new guy who really knows nothing --- and just runs on being "the new guy". If you remember the campaign of 2000 --- the guy who "won" was the guy who promised to change everything. So here we are in desperate shape after 8 yrs of the guy who was going to change everything. Ready for MORE change??? No thanks. I''''ll stick with what I know and the man I can believe in.
    Posted by lottobee at 10:06 PM : Jul 18, 2008
    ***How can you believe in Mccain? You say he has a proven record? a record of what, trying to pass amnesty for over 12 million illegals to get citizenship and take over our jobs here in the US? How is that for trust? I hate Mccain! I don''t necessarily like Obama, But I Really hate mccain! Mccain can''t even offer ONE idea that is different than what Bush has been trying to force us to do over the past 8 years. The system isn''t working right now, we need a change. Don''t vote for Amnesty Mccain. Vote for Obama!
    Reply to this comment
    by babooph July 19, 2008 4:18 AM PDT
    Hard to get worked up-middle class will still be taxed to death-Israel still groveled to-even without a war,miltary budget will crush the middle class at warp speed.
    Reply to this comment
    by juwboy July 19, 2008 5:34 AM PDT
    babooph:

    When Hitler came to power, one of his first acts was the eleimination of his political opponents -- socialists, communists, Marxists, labor leaders and other left-wingers.

    Next, he turned his attention to the people he considered to be the second-greatest threat to Germany.

    It wasn''t the Jews.

    Or Gipsies.

    Or homosexuals.

    No, the groups that were the next-greatest threat to the purity of his glorious German Master-race were the mentally-retarded and the feeble-minded.

    Idiots, imbeciles, half-wits, simpletons, morons and cretins.

    People just like you, babooph.
    Reply to this comment
    by smirk5 July 19, 2008 6:11 AM PDT
    Wow. These messages are good inspiration to send Obama another 50 bucks.
    Reply to this comment
    by carlsbad77 July 19, 2008 6:12 AM PDT
    Everyone keeps asking, "Is White America ready for a black president?". I think the more important question is "Is Black America ready for a black president?"
    Reply to this comment
    by joe1022joe July 19, 2008 7:32 AM PDT
    McCain supporters who are unenthusiastic on voting day will say, "Well, guess we better go down and vote for John. He may not be perfect, but he''s a heck of a lot better better than that Obama fella." And they''ll go and they''ll vote for McCain.

    Oh, and about polls: Polls that show Obama slightly ahead actually show McCain in the lead. The polls get Obama''s popularity with actual voters wrong - regularly. Americans will not put a guy one-half of whose family is Moslem and actually lives in Africa in the Oval Office. Obama is an accidental American. He was accidentally born on our soil. Otherwise, he is a foreigner. His brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, and cousins literally live in Africa today. He has no gut knowledge of what most Americans feel or think. Can''t you just see the Democratic dog (cat?) fight in the Democratic Party for the nomination to run against President McCain in 2012? Hillary and Obama again. Except this time the Clintons will have the gloves off.
    Reply to this comment
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