Is There An Election "Enthusiasm Gap"?
CBS News' Kathy Frankovic: If There Is One, Does It Matter?
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Listen to CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic dissect the data to see what's driving public opinion.
The most extraordinary difference between the supporters of John McCain and Barack Obama is in what we have chosen to label “enthusiasm.” The latest CBS News/New York Times Poll, completed on July 14, shows Obama leading McCain 48 percent to 42 percent among registered voters. That’s only six points. And more than one in three registered voters either admit that their minds aren’t completely made up, or that they are truly undecided about their preference.
But the voters who have made a choice display an “enthusiasm gap” that overwhelms differences in support.
This enthusiasm gap can be seen in larger crowds at rallies, as well as in greater fundraising. Journalists - and voters - sense this kind of enthusiasm, too. By 53 percent to 30 percent, voters say they expect Obama to win.
However, each candidate has problems motivating some of his partisans. The least satisfied of McCain’s supporters are conservatives and evangelicals - the same groups with whom (exit polls showed) he had trouble in the primaries. And Obama still has to go some distance to capture the enthusiasm of former Clinton supporters, six in ten of whom are now supporting Obama, but not necessarily with enthusiasm. Just 29 percent of that group are enthusiastic about their current choice.
Strength of support or level of enthusiasm can sometimes make a difference in an election, as the candidate who wins is often the candidate whose supporters care most about winning.
In late July, 2004, even AFTER that year’s Democratic Convention and before the Republicans met, John Kerry’s supporters were a lot less committed to their candidate than supporters of George W. Bush were committed to theirs. Sixty percent of Bush voters said they “strongly” favored their candidate; just 47 percent of Kerry’s supporters said that. There was another motivation for many Kerry voters - 28 percent said they were voting for Kerry mostly because they disliked Bush. Strength-of-support numbers pretty much stayed the same for the rest of the campaign. Even in polls taken just before the 2004 election there wasn’t much difference: 67 percent of Bush voters said they supported him strongly, compared with just 49 percent of Kerry voters. And while 37 percent of likely Republican voters said they would be “excited” by a Bush win, just 24 percent of likely Democratic voters said they would be “excited” by a Kerry victory.Poll Database
Search recent CBS News campaign polls.
This year, in the CBS News Poll conducted right before the New Hampshire Primary, there were signs that Hillary Clinton’s support was much stronger than the simple horserace numbers suggested. (As in every other poll conducted right before that primary, the CBS News Poll showed Obama ahead; yet, as we now all know, Clinton won that contest). We asked New Hampshire Democratic primary voters this question: “Would you say you like [Clinton/Obama] a great deal better than any other Democratic candidate for President, somewhat better than any other candidate, or only a little better than any other candidate?” Clinton had the edge in the share of her voters who were intense; 36 percent said they liked her “a great deal better” than any other candidate in New Hampshire, while just 26 percent of Obama supporters said they liked him a great deal better than the others.
Caring a lot can translate into activity for a candidate - more than half of Clinton supporters in New Hampshire (55 percent) said they had recommended Clinton to other voters, while just 44 percent of Obama supporters had done that.
So, yes, there is an “enthusiasm gap” in this year’s election - and enthusiasm certainly helps to get out the vote. Clinton won the New Hampshire primary. Bush beat Kerry in 2004, and Obama is now leading McCain.
By Kathy Frankovic
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 55 CommentsOnly about the candidates!
It''s like being given the choise of how you want to be put to death.
IF YOU WANT GUNGHO CHEERS AND JEERS GO TO A FOOTBALL GAME- EVENTUALLY YOU WILL TIRE OUT.
If that''s all the democrats offer, they can eat ***** and die!
Why is it that Michael Moore is the only person in the US media who has guts enough to point out just how close the Bushes and the Saudis were and are!
-heh-
yeah you could call it that, old white racist trash from the south living in a trailer with there rebel flags
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Posted by RowdyWicca
wow and you used to support the Clintons, now talking %&^** about the democrats. LOL what a flip floping moron?
If you believe the hate you are spewing you are a sad, lonely, and delusional person.If you don''t believe it you are just mean for saying it.
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Posted by mr2258
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LOL! Don''t eat so much applesauce!
I can''t get up enough enthusiasm to vote for the Islamofast loving little bastward from Chicago at ALL! Every time I think of his loving relative Raila Odinga rounding their own people up in church, torching it, and then machete''ing them as they run out...and remember that Obama went over there and supported the SOB until Kenya had to file a complaint with our State Department, all I can see is the little Islamofast loving bastward with his turban on!
And everytime I envision watching those people jump out of the WTC to keep from burning to death...and this little Islamofast bastward proposes he''s going to talk these idiots into peace...I can''t seem to drum up any enthusiasm at all for the DNC acting like the Chicago mafia and giving this bastward their nomination!
So, Grandpa McCain it is!! He will defend this country with ALL it''s might! And...he has NO ties to these Islamofast crazy bastwards!
- bush was the president at the time!! he let that s.h.i.t. happen on his watch!! no one to blame but bush, he knock down those towers!!
ALL PEOPLE WITH GUTS AND PRIDE::::: do not watch CBS, NBC OR ABC DURING OBAMA''''S TRIP ABROAD.... DO NOT WATCH THESE THREE NETWORKS DURING THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION........
Posted by fenner
.. .. ..
WSJ, BBC do just fine.
I can''t watch FOX because they have to insert "shock and awe" in every sentence.
hey looks like mccain will be the next total failure!!
Posted by CBS4me3 at 07:53 PM : Jul 18, 2008
as oneof those 52 yr.white male kids in texas ..when that democratic tsunammi in the fall rolls you republicans out of office , you will wonder about the time you spent on line pretending to be a hillary supporter,while hillary supporters join the rest of the democrats at the polls .
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Posted by mr2258
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LMAO.
a disgrace.
ALL PEOPLE WITH GUTS AND PRIDE::::: do not watch CBS, NBC OR ABC DURING OBAMA''''S TRIP ABROAD.... DO NOT WATCH THESE THREE NETWORKS DURING THE DEMOCRATIC CONVENTION........
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Posted by fenner at 07:09 PM : Jul 18, 2008
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Please explain. I am not sure I understand why you think that.
Would You expect enthusiasm from 18y.o. girl about her 70y.o. bride, forgetting her name from time to time, and NO money for her own in prelimentary?
She better do NOT pick him, right?
Same Gop non-enthusiastic voter.
Go Obama!
because you are wrong.
So You bosst in hysteric as there is NOTHING You can do for America to go forward.
We will.
And You may stay retire with McBush. maybe his wife wil give You few beer cans .
relax: We are going forward.
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Posted by libsluv2Spi1 at 07:55 PM : Jul 18, 2008
Yeah, and Obama wants to go have a love in with the kind of idiots that did it!
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Posted by clovisbuford at 08:30 PM : Jul 18, 2008
Hate to burst your bubble, but it ain''t gonna happen!
Posted by RowdyWicca
******************************************************** And Rowdy, once again, presents us with a bit more evidence to prove that the dumbing down of America has been an outstanding success!
Posted by tylenol6 at 09:30 PM : Jul 18, 2008
+ report abuse
*** i agree, we should have had other candidates, from both parties. But i''m 110 percent sure I will vote for Obama. I hate mccain more than I hate Obama, so i''m voting for Obama just to show Mccain and Republicans that I DO NOT SUPPORT And will NOT tolerate a candidate that supports amnesty like mccain! I hate mccain more than bush, and that is saying alot! I hope Obama wins in a landslide!
Posted by RowdyWicca
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****************** And Rowdy, once again, presents us with a bit more evidence to prove that the dumbing down of America has been an outstanding success!
Posted by truthmatterz at 11:47 PM : Jul 18, 2008
*** why Rowdy! Why? Why would you support amnesty mccain over Obama? Why do you care so much even if Obama would have a conection to Islamic people even though he doesn''t? Obama can''t just let Muslim people walk into the USA and seize power. On the other hand though, Mccain does want to vote to allow over 12 million illegals to become citizens! So if you want our country to fall, and become the next spanish speaking country... then vote for Amnesty Mccain. But if you want American to be strong and free, and English speaking, then vote Obama!
Posted by lottobee at 10:06 PM : Jul 18, 2008
***How can you believe in Mccain? You say he has a proven record? a record of what, trying to pass amnesty for over 12 million illegals to get citizenship and take over our jobs here in the US? How is that for trust? I hate Mccain! I don''t necessarily like Obama, But I Really hate mccain! Mccain can''t even offer ONE idea that is different than what Bush has been trying to force us to do over the past 8 years. The system isn''t working right now, we need a change. Don''t vote for Amnesty Mccain. Vote for Obama!
When Hitler came to power, one of his first acts was the eleimination of his political opponents -- socialists, communists, Marxists, labor leaders and other left-wingers.
Next, he turned his attention to the people he considered to be the second-greatest threat to Germany.
It wasn''t the Jews.
Or Gipsies.
Or homosexuals.
No, the groups that were the next-greatest threat to the purity of his glorious German Master-race were the mentally-retarded and the feeble-minded.
Idiots, imbeciles, half-wits, simpletons, morons and cretins.
People just like you, babooph.
Oh, and about polls: Polls that show Obama slightly ahead actually show McCain in the lead. The polls get Obama''s popularity with actual voters wrong - regularly. Americans will not put a guy one-half of whose family is Moslem and actually lives in Africa in the Oval Office. Obama is an accidental American. He was accidentally born on our soil. Otherwise, he is a foreigner. His brothers, sisters, aunts, uncles, and cousins literally live in Africa today. He has no gut knowledge of what most Americans feel or think. Can''t you just see the Democratic dog (cat?) fight in the Democratic Party for the nomination to run against President McCain in 2012? Hillary and Obama again. Except this time the Clintons will have the gloves off.
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