July 15, 2008
CBS Poll: Obama Leads, But Race Fluid
Democrat Holds Six Point Lead Over McCain In CBS/NYT Survey, But Many Undecided
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Obama Leads In Latest Poll
John McCain faces an uphill battle against Barack Obama, who is leading in many polling categories. Jeff Greenfield takes a closer look at what the polls say about the upcoming electoral campaign.
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Bush, Congress Get Low Approval Ratings
Both President Bush and Congress received low approval ratings Tuesday from the American public. CBS News White House Correspondent Mark Knoller looks at the numbers and Bush's recent remarks.
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The six percentage point spread is unchanged since June, when Obama led McCain 48 percent to 42 percent. But more than 1 in 10 voters now say they are undecided between the candidates - twice as many, percentage-wise, as last month - and 28 percent of those who did express a preference say they might still change their mind.
The race between McCain and Obama appears to be more fluid than the 2004 battle between Democratic nominee John Kerry and President George W. Bush. Four years ago this month, just 6 percent of those surveyed were undecided between the candidates. And only 20 percent of those asked indicated their minds weren't yet made up.
Obama voters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate: Half of his supporters described themselves as "enthusiastic" about Obama as nominee, while just 16 percent of McCain voters said the same. Sixty-eight percent of McCain voters describe themselves as "satisfied" with the presumptive GOP nominee, while 14 percent say they are "dissatisfied."
Read The Complete Poll:The 2008 Campaign
Only six percent of Obama voters say they are "dissatisfied" with the Democratic candidate. But there are some lingering reservations among former supporters of Obama's toughest rival for the Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton. About one in five of those who say they voted for Clinton in the primaries now plan to support McCain in November. And just 29 percent of former Clinton supporters who plan to vote for Obama feel "enthusiastic" about the candidate.
Just less than half of those surveyed want more choices in the election, a response that is similar to previous election cycles. Sixty percent of McCain supporters want more choices, while less than half as many Obama supporters say the same.
More than two in three Obama supporters say it is extremely or very important that the Illinois senator win in November. Just over half of McCain voters feel the same way about their candidate.
The War In Iraq, The Economy And Energy:
Americans are increasingly positive about the way things are going in Iraq, though a majority still believes the war is going badly.
Forty-five percent say the war is going well, up ten percentage points from last month and the most positive assessment of the situation since January 2006. But nearly sixty percent of those surveyed maintain that the U.S. should have stayed out of Iraq.
The economy and jobs are seen by nearly 40 percent of Americans as the most important problem facing the country, easily eclipsing the war in Iraq and gas prices, each of which were cited by 16 percent of respondents.
Fewer than 1 in 5 Americans describe the state of the economy as good. Eighty percent say it is in bad shape - with 35 percent describing it as "very bad." More than two thirds of Americans say the economy is getting worse, while a mere three percent say it is getting better. Still, three in four say their own household finances are at least somewhat good.
Mr. Bush's job approval rating stands at 28 percent, up slightly from last month's all-time low of 25 percent. Just 20 percent of those surveyed approve of the president's handling of the economy, the lowest percentage of his time in office.
Fourteen percent of Americans say the country is heading in the right direction, unchanged from last month's all-time low. More than 80 percent say it is on the wrong track.
McCain has proposed that the U.S. build more nuclear power plants to generate electricity, and 57 percent of Americans say they support doing so - up 12 points from April of last year and the highest percentage since 1977.
Americans are skeptical about the prospect of the next president lowering the price of gas. Only 30 percent think Obama’s energy policies will help lower the price, and just 25 percent think McCain’s politics will do so.
Sixty-five percent of Americans say gas prices have caused financial hardship for them or their households, and more than a third characterized their hardship as serious.
The Candidates' Support:
Following in the footsteps of every Republican presidential candidate since 1964, McCain leads the Democratic candidate among registered white voters. (The margin is nine percent.) Obama leads overwhelmingly among blacks, 89 percent to 2 percent, while Hispanics favor Obama by a wide margin, 62 percent to 23 percent.
Obama, unsurprisingly, leads among liberals and Democrats, while McCain leads among conservatives and Republicans. Independents are nearly split, with 38 percent backing Obama and 35 percent backing McCain. Nearly one in 5 independents is undecided, and 33 percent of those who have chosen a candidate say they could change their mind.
Both women and men prefer Obama, though the margin is higher among women (9 percentage points) than among men (3 percentage points). Voters under 65 support Obama, particularly those between 18 and 29 years old, where there is a 12 percentage point difference between the candidates. Voters 65 and older favor McCain by a small margin.
Working class whites favor McCain over Obama 45 percent to 33 percent, and weekly churchgoers favor the presumptive GOP nominee 52 percent to 34 percent.
Both candidates have lost credibility over the course of the campaign, though Obama's has slipped slightly more than McCain's. Just 43 percent of registered voters believe Obama says what he believes, not just what voters want to hear. That's down from 53 percent in May. Forty-six percent believe McCain says what he believes, down from 51 percent in May.
Slightly more than half of McCain voters - and 56 percent of Obama voters - say the candidates have changed their issue positions to get elected. About 4 in 10 of those who feel that way say the change has made them think worse of the candidates.
Obama's decision to opt-out of public financing in the general election - after initially vowing to work to accept it - is not a big issue for many registered voters: 45 percent say they haven't heard enough about the issue to have an opinion. One in three approve of the decision, while 18 percent disapprove.
Obama suffers from a significant patriotism gap: 73 percent of voters describe McCain as "very patriotic," while just 37 percent view Obama that way. Obama has improved on this measure, however: In April, just 29 percent considered him “very patriotic.”
McCain also fares better on the question of who would be an effective commander in chief. Forty-six percent say McCain would "very likely" be effective, while just 24 percent say the same of Obama. Thirty-six percent say it is "not likely" Obama will be effective.
Forty-eight percent of registered voters believe America's image in the world will get better if Obama is elected, while just 18 percent say America's image will improve if McCain is elected.
Obama and his Democratic supporters have looked to portray McCain as representing a third term of Mr. Bush's policies, and many registered voters agree: Sixty-one percent believe McCain will continue the president's economic policies, and 78 percent believe he will continue the president's Iraq policies. More than half of McCain's supporters, however, say the Arizona senator will differ from the president on the economy.
McCain will be 72 years old on Inauguration Day, which would make him the oldest president ever elected to a first term should he win. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed say McCain's age gives him experience and wisdom to be a good president, while 36 percent say his age is an impediment to do the job effectively.
The favorable ratings of both candidates have fallen in the last month, with Obama dropping two points to 39 percent and McCain falling three points to 31 percent. McCain's unfavorable rating also fell, however, to 32 percent, just one point above Obama's.
Michelle Obama is viewed favorably by 29 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 16 percent, while Cindy McCain is viewed favorably by 18 percent and unfavorably by 8 percent. Majorities say they haven't heard enough about either woman to have an opinion.
Race Relations:
Nearly 1 in 3 registered voters say race relations in the U.S. will improve if Obama is elected president, though 17 percent expect them to get worse if he is elected. Black voters in particular expect an improvement, with 47 percent predicting as much if Obama is elected.
But Obama's nomination has not yet done much to change African-Americans’ outlook about opportunity in the U.S. Nearly two in three black voters say whites have a better opportunity than blacks to get ahead in society - up from 57 percent more than eight years ago. A majority of whites say both blacks and whites have an equal chance to get ahead.
Whites earning less than $50,000 per year and without a college education tend to see equal opportunities for both races, while wealthier whites tend to feel whites have an advantage. White Republicans have a more positive view of race relations than white Democrats, who are more likely to say U.S. society gives whites an advantage in getting ahead.
African-Americans remain pessimistic about race relations in the U.S., with 59 percent describing them as bad - up 13 percentage points from March - and just 29 percent describing them as good. Whites have a more optimistic view, with 55 percent describing race relations as good and 34 percent as bad.
Both whites and blacks believe that America is ready for a black president, and large majorities of registered voters believe that both Obama and McCain's policies would treat both races equally. Black voters largely do not anticipate any favoritism from Obama, with only 4 percent of them saying Obama would favor blacks over whites as president. Sixteen percent of white voters - including 23 percent of white voters backing McCain - expect Obama to favor blacks, however. And 39 percent of black voters think McCain’s policies will favor whites.
Hispanic Voters:
Obama holds a nearly 40 point lead among Hispanics, a group he struggled to win over in his primary fight with Hillary Clinton. Despite losing among Hispanics in all but three states during the primaries, Obama leads McCain 62 percent to 23 percent among the group.
Mr. Bush took 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004 and 35 percent of that vote in 2000. The voting block is considered key in this election, particularly in swing states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.
Thirty-one percent of Hispanic voters are "enthusiastic" about Obama, while just 6 percent feel that way about McCain, who has been more moderate on immigration than many of his fellow Republicans.
Forty-four percent of Hispanics identify themselves as Democrats, while 13 percent say they are Republicans and 42 percent identify as independents.
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See all 589 CommentsPosted by jumkey at 06:38 PM : Jul 15, 2008
The other 58% will vote for Obama.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
CNN) %u2013 For the second time in two days, John McCain has referred to current events in %u201CCzechoslovakia%u201D %u2013 a country that officially ceased to exist in January of 1993.
More than fifteen years ago, Czechoslovakia officially split into two nations %u2013 the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
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John''s obviously a little behind the times....
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Posted by jumkey
You have that right. Neo-conservative, fascist intellectual wanna-bees who currently have, and will most likely forever have, their heads firmly planted up thier tight, little flowering biannuals.
And so did Reagan, but he did one heck of a lot better job than Jimmy.
Obama looks too young.
Smart Carter lost Iran
Senile Reagan made the Berlin wall fall down and won the Cold War..
Smart Clinton weakend us and allowed Osama to succeed..
It sure is nice to get a senile guy in office, he did a lot better for us than those on either side of his administration. If that is what a senile president can accomplish, we could use another one!
Posted by Prelgovisk at 07:12 PM : Jul 15, 2008
Oh and Carter did not lose Iran. The Iranian people overthrew the monstrous murderous dictator, the Shah of Iran.
Posted by SgtRDS10-4 at 07:15 PM : Jul 15, 2008
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Why do your posts keep disappearing? Mine did too a couple of times.......what''s going on?
Posted by SgtRDS10-4 at 07:17 PM : Jul 15, 2008
Mine certainly weren''t anti GOP and two of mine disappeared too. Must be some glitch.
Posted by cfin5 at 07:17 PM : Jul 15, 2008
I think you''ll be surprised by his competence and integrity.
While Executive Officer and later as Squadron Commander McCain used his authority to arrange frequent flights that allowed him to carouse with subordinates and "engage in extra-marital affairs." Such behavior was a violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice rules against adultery and fraternization with subordinates.
Vote for your wallet , vote for the economy, vote for the environment, vote for jobs. Vote Democratic 2008 -- don''t let the corporations and their Republican stooges win again
Check out the result of his BRILLIANT support of the "Surge", not to mention the fatally wrong idea to go to war with Iraq in the first place, and not actually go after the 9/11 terrorists. Check the facts at the below link:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/18722376/the_myth_of_the_surge
By November Obama will have convinced the other 41% that race relations are bad.
Posted by cfin5 at 07:17 PM : Jul 15, 2008
I think you''''ll be surprised by his competence and integrity.
Posted by standlee5 at 07:26 PM : Jul 15, 2008--- I hope so. I don''t trust Obama at all. Now McCain? He had better pick a good running mate. Lieberman is the one I think he''ll choose, but Romney would be better by far.
Posted by cfin5 at 07:41 PM : Jul 15, 2008
I like them both. They both are competent experienced leaders.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
We keep gittin Richer,
but we can''t get our picture,
On the Cover of the Rolling Stone!
Go back to your weed, dude.
No one listens to folks that seriously post things like this.
Potty mouth!
We don''t know the inner dynamics of a failed marriage of 30 years ago. It''s none of our business
Posted by cfin5 at 07:53 PM : Jul 15, 2008
great. I''d be voting for Ron Paul if he was on the ballot.
Heck he was up by 16 three weeks ago and the more people get to know Mr. Obama the more he will drop. I understand that some liberal publication has a picture of him and his wife in Muslim outfits burning an American Flag. Wait till that picture get published...
Posted by nsSherlock1 at 07:47 PM : Jul 15, 2008--- What are you talking about?
Rarely is anything ''None of our business.'' when we are talking about a Presidential Candidate.
However, it was DEFINITLY a partisan attack by a Obama supporter, as well as unfair characterization given that they don''t know that history.
So don''t be complaining when Michelle gets dragged into this again for making another stupid remark.
Posted by RandyNason
I really wish people would stop throwing around the word fascist without having some remote idea of what the term and its ideology actually means and is. President Bush is not a fascist. If he were a fascist we would control directly and without any doubt all of Iraq, we would have eliminated all opposition, we would rule Afghanistan directly, there would be no message boards like this one, the Congress would be a rubber stamp for anything the president wanted, there would never have been a picture of New Orleans after Katrina on anyone''s television, all major industry would be controlled and owe complete allegiance to the government, there would be no Democratic party. You use a term but you have no idea what it means or implies. I think it is in fact you sir, who might need to come out of the darkness and try to find daylight.
Posted by standlee5 at 07:53 PM
Why would that necessarily be the alternative? Seems to me that the U.S. was much more prosperous under Clinton than under Bush. Reagan''s polices have essentially carved the center out of the U.S. This myth persists that somehow we''re all better off when the GOP rules. That hasn''t been the case. The GOP only cares about the GOP.
Have you heard his 5 point plan to win the war, oh yea, he''''''''s changed his mind. Read it carefully dems, it sounds a lot like what we''''''''re trying to do now.
My fellow Democratic it is not too late, things can change in Denver. Obama is dropping in the polls heck Hillary would be up by 20 on McCain.. Hillary if she will take it should be our candidate.
He was registered under the name of Barry Soetoro, serial number 203. School documents list Barry Soetoro as an Indonesian citizen and his religion was listed as Islam.
His third grade teacher, Fermina Katarina Sinaga, now 67, asked her class to write an essay titled "My dream: What I want to be in the future." Obama wrote "I want to be a President," she said.
All Indonesian students are required to study religion at school and a young Barry Soetoro, being a Muslim, would have been required to study Islam daily in school.
He would have been taught to read and write Arabic, to recite his prayers properly, to read and recite from the Quran and to study the laws of Islam.
In his autobiography, "Dreams From My Father," Obama mentions studying the Quran and describes the public school as "a Muslim school."
The evidence seems to quite clearly show that both Ann Dunham and her husband Lolo Soetoro Mangunharjo were in fact devout Muslims themselves and they raised their son as such."
Obama''''''''s half-sister, Maya, recalled that the family attended the mosque
Heck he was up by 16 three weeks ago and the more people get to know Mr. Obama the more he will drop. I understand that some liberal publication has a picture of him and his wife in Muslim outfits burning an American Flag. Wait till that picture get published...
Posted by Barocalto at 08:02 PM : Jul 15, 2008
My female family memebers certainly think so. They are P.O.ed
Don''t you mean for a CONTINUATION of the above, vote McCain? He''s the one that''s determined to keep Bush''s policies in effect. The only hope of stopping those things is to get the republicans OUT.
Posted by Barocalto at 08:02 PM : Jul 15, 2008---- I think your right. She got all the big blue states. She was gypped by the medias silence on Baraks history. "B"low "H"ard Obama is in a nose dive, flip-floppin'' all the way down,.....cool!
NO WAY SHOULD HE BE PRESIDENT
Tkhe only thing that matters is he''s not going to trot out some big non-sustainable entitlement program and he''ll veto any bill with porkbarrell spending and earmarks. That''s all we need to know.
Posted by noloyalisti
Thank you for asking. My mom and dad instilled in me a good work ethic and frankly I love my job so for me the economy is OK..
But 17 months ago before the Democrats took control of the congress I was doing much better.. Yeah I''''m with you man the Democrats no friend of the working man or women
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