Gas Price Increases = Less Auto Deaths

Researchers Say A 10 Percent Jump In Fuel Prices Leads To A 2.3 Percent Decline In Car-Related Fatalities

(AP)  Today's high gas prices could reduce auto deaths by nearly a third as driving decreases, with the effect particularly dramatic among price-sensitive teenage drivers, the authors of a new study said.

Professors Michael Morrisey of the University of Alabama-Birmingham and David Grabowski of Harvard Medical School found that for every 10 percent increase in gas prices there was a 2.3 percent decline in auto deaths. For drivers ages 15 to 17, the decline was 6 percent, and for ages 18 to 21, it was 3.2 percent.

The study looked at fatalities from 1985 to 2006, when gas prices reached about $2.50 a gallon. With gas now averaging over $4 a gallon, Morrisey said he expects to see a drop of about 1,000 deaths a month.

With annual auto deaths typically ranging from about 38,000 to 40,000 a year, a drop of 12,000 deaths would cut the total by nearly a third, Morrisey said.

"I think there is some silver lining here in higher gas taxes in that we will see a public health gain," Grabowski said. But he cautioned that their estimate of a decline of 1,000 deaths a month could be offset somewhat by the shift under way to smaller, lighter, more fuel-efficient cars and the increase in motorcycle and scooter driving.

Morrisey said the study also found the "same kind of symmetry" between gas prices and auto deaths when prices go down.

"When that happens we drive more, we drive bigger cars, we drive faster and fatalities are higher," he said.

Morrisey and Grabowski presented their findings to a meeting of the American Society of Health Economists in Raleigh-Durham, N.C., last month. The study was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

[observer2020]

Actually, we will see the motorcycle deaths climb rapidly as people use motorcycles instead of cars. I thought about buying one for my 84-mile everyday commute, but after personally knowing 5 people over the last 3 weeks get killed on motorcycles...I''m having second thoughts. 4 of the 5 were not the fault of the motorcycle rider...people in cars/truck/SUVs (So Useless Vehicles) were not paying attention. All these people that just HAD to buy a 4-wheel drive vehicle (SUV)...my 2-wheel drive car has seen more off road than their So Useless Vehicle will ever see.

[barbaram99]

I adjusted long before this became an issue. I do walk to the store. I do walk places and have for years. I am legally blind from birth. I do use mass transit. I have seen others bike that can ride them. I knew this day was coming. Vince he walks and uses the bus. Holidays..It is right here at home.
Years ago my sister got in the family car and drove to the next home when she could have walked over faster. Mum told her so. I use a white cane. Ssw a programme about oil on the sci ch and it touch on when oil guns out. It will and when I don''t know. In Seattle the cars are thick on the roads. I meant a man that said *I got to have my car. I can''t be with out my car.* Well his car died.

[rhs648]

The car replaced the horse. Why. well they were dirty and so the car was cleaner. The horse man/woman had to clean up after his/her horse. The car was better.
Now the car is dirty and the horse dirtier. what next for clean getting around. If there is such a thing.

Posted by BarbaraM99

What about walking, bicycles, and living near where we work. Fewer trips to the store and fewer vacations would help, too. The world has changed and we need to adjust.

[rhs648]

I would rather have cheap fuel, highway driving, and the risk of death. The Saudis are not our patrons. They simply want American money. George W. Bush is their well-paid lackey.

Posted by Petro49L

What does this say about our presidents over the last 40 years? None of them made us energy efficient. President Bush pushed for oil drilling in Alaska and in the Gulf. Congress failed to give an inch. It doesn''t matter that modern methods can protect the environment. The anser is still no. Most Americans prefer lower prices at the pump. Does this matter to Congress? Don''t bet on it.

[barbaram99]

I say THERE be more deaths as they will fight over a tank of gas like children only far worse. Fewer deaths..nope it be nastier.

[deacon20081]

Since Dubya seems so adept at causing so much killing....he should tell the Saudis." There is a nuke planted in your desert kingdom...." Where? We forget. Is it armed ....I don''t remember. Kinda like my Cocaine days...don''t remember if I did Coke or not.

[deacon20081]

I am seeing more people driving what I call "death Traps". Little cars with almost no steel means more deaths from even the slowest moving accidents.
Great Gas mileage !! And a Bonus they fit right between the wheels of 18 wheeler Rigs. They are also hard to see when changing lanes on a busy highway.
Give me a vehicle with some weight, I would rather be screwed at the pump than extricated from a mass of tin by the Fire Dept.

[petro49l]

I would rather have cheap fuel, highway driving, and the risk of death. The Saudis are not our patrons. They simply want American money. George W. Bush is their well-paid lackey.

[downtowner97]

Note to the author: Since there''s no such thing as a part death, the title should say "Fewer Auto Deaths".

[barbaram99]

The car replaced the horse. Why. well they were dirty and so the car was cleaner. The horse man/woman had to clean up after his/her horse. The car was better.
Now the car is dirty and the horse dirtier. what next for clean getting around. If there is such a thing.

[xlib]

To the dem congress, DRILL, DRILL, DRILL, DRILL, DRILL!

[aeasus]

BUT the number of deaths related to driving motorcycles must be increasing....

Posted by barkerc123c at 10:32 AM : Jul 12, 2008
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Humm,I wonder if any researchers are working on that?

[ubrew12]

Tomorrows headline: "Horse and buggy deaths on the increase"

[barkerc123c]

BUT the number of deaths related to driving motorcycles must be increasing....

[slim1h2o]

Next year, they will have another study.

When more people are poor, or poorer, and unable to afford Health Care, a study will conclude that medical mistakes are on the decline. Of course they will fail to mention that other causes of death are on the up-swing, due to unaffordable Health Care.

Be ready for it people. You heard it here 1st.

[ajaxtheleast]

Gas Price Incresses = Less Car Deaths =
More Husbands Cant Afford To Drive To
Work = More Husbands Staying Home With
Wives = More Familiarty Breeds Contemtp =
More Intra-Family Deaths.

[barbaram99]

the oil will run out..when..I say in 10 to 15 years. May be sooner. I think gas will be 5/6 gollars by summer/fall. The rich don''t care. That war in the middle east is not helpping matters.

[iambaker]

Less, meaning "fewer." Thanks, CBS, for the grammar rehash...

[incog-nito]

In other news, researchers have found that if people die during a famine there will be more food left over for the survivors. They cautioned, however, that more studies are needed. "Please send more research money, lots of it," one researcher added.

[demwatcher]

So, the Democrat Congress now has a reason to add even more taxes to gasoline.

"We''re doing it to save the children!"