La Niña Easing, Reduced Storm Risk

Hurricanes More Likely During La Nina; Neutral Conditions Expected In Fall

(AP)  The climate phenomena known as La Nina is ending and neutral conditions are expected into the fall, government forecasters said Thursday. The change can affect weather worldwide.

La Nina is a cooling of water in the tropical Pacific ocean, the opposite of the warm-water condition known as El Nino.

The federal Climate Prediction Center said a transition from La Nina to neutral conditions occurred during June as sea surface temperatures returned to near average conditions.

The transition to a neutral condition could be beneficial along the East and Gulf coasts with hurricane season under way, as the chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane are higher during La Nina.

However, the forecast also noted that, as in past transitions first reported from changes in sea surface temperatures, La Nina's effects can linger in the atmospheric circulation, but with diminishing strength.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic hurricane outlook issued in May calls for 12 to 16 named storms including 6 to 9 hurricanes. Currently the second named storm of the season, Bertha, is churning in the mid-Atlantic.

While the forecast calls for neutral conditions to continue into the fall, the Climate Prediction Center said it could not rule out a change at that time, as El Nino-La Nina switches often occur in the second half of a year.

A change in the fall could affect winter weather across the country. Winters during El Nino periods tend to have a strong storm track across the southern part of the United States and milder-than-average conditions with less storminess across the North. A La Nina winter tends to be colder and stormier than average across the North and warmer and less stormy conditions across the South.

[jowand]

It''s an admission that human caused global warming is nothing but bovine excrement.

[hk94]

Wait. I thought global warming was supposed to cause record stoms this year. It was suposed to trump La Nina. remember the dire predictions for this year and the last two years? Oh, yeah that''s right the weather man is usually 20% wrong tonight with an 80% chance of BS inthe morning.

[ubrew12]

This article shows temp trends since 1950, without and with corrections put in for ENSO (el nino/el nina) events.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/07/global-trends-and-enso/

Seafand says there''s been cooling since 1995, but from these graphs, I don''t see it.

[ubrew12]

ndpindent-ru said: "you would think warmer waters would create more storms, not less. does water evaporate faster at lower temps? somebody explain to me how this artivle makes sense. "
Atlantic Hurricanes don''t come from the Pacific. The cooler water over the Pacific during a La Nina probably acts to draw Hurricanes spawn in the Atlantic closer toward and onto the U.S. eastern seaboard. That''s my guess.

The connection between El Nino/La Nina and Global Warming is very difficult to establish.

[noaanhc]

You would think warmer waters would create
more storms.

posted by ndpindent-ru


As one who has had an interest into the wonderful world of meteorology for years,I too am at a loss to explain this.My best advive would be to contact your local NWS office for any questions you may have.

www.nws.noaa.gov

[barocalto]

Man made global warming is the biggest scam ever pulled on society, well organized religion would be one, but after that it''s man made global warming....

[miamimama3]

Good news! A third season without getting slammed by a named storm would be really nice.

[seafang]

Well don''t forget that global warming is also over for the forseeable future despite the fact that CO2 continues to rise. The earth has been cooling since about 1995 except for a short el nino in 1998, but since jan 2007 the cooling has become pronounced,a dn the Pacific Decadal oscillation moved into its cooling phase earlier this year.

Then there''s that other effect; namely that the period of an active sun with high sunspot counts for the last 50 years or so, has suddenly shutoff and the sun has gone very quiet, with no sunspots at all.

So Sorry Al Gore; it''s an inconvenient truth I know, but your gravy train scam has come to an end.

[stn_sage]

Yeah?! Great. I won''t ''hold my breath''!
We''ll see at the end of the year, how it''s gone!