Voters Say "Drill"

National Review Online: But Neither Presidential Candidate Gets It

(National Review Online)  This column was written by Larry Kudlow.

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The recent spike in oil prices and unemployment is dramatically changing this presidential campaign - virtually overnight. The near $20 jump in oil to $140 a barrel, the unexpected half-point increase in the jobless rate to 5.5 percent (the biggest monthly increase in 20 years), and the resulting 400-point plunge in stocks has created a new campaign issue right before our eyes.

Public worry number one is now oil, jobs, and the economy, with the inflationary woes of the U.S. dollar right underneath. The candidate who can connect with these issues will win in November. But so far neither Obama nor McCain are dealing with the new political reality.

In fact, it’s all about oil right now. The price has doubled over the past year while the economy has slumped.

But here’s an eye opener. Recent polling data from Gallup show the percentage of voters blaming oil companies for skyrocketing gasoline prices has dropped from 34 percent to 20 percent over the past year. At the same time, support for more drilling in U.S. coastal and wilderness areas has increased to 57 percent from 41 percent.

And the candidates remain blind to these shifts.

Obama continues to lambaste oil companies while congressional Democrats push for cap-and-trade. They’re missing the point, big time. The public wants more energy and more fuel to cut high prices and spur economic growth. But the costly cap-and-trade plan would produce less fuel and less growth. It would only raise gas pump prices while mounting a Gosplan-type taxing, spending, and regulating program that would be the moral equivalent of Hillarycare on nationalized medicine.

Sen. McCain has an opening here. Yet he, like Obama, would have voted for cap-and-trade, which went down to defeat in last week’s Senate vote. And while Mr. McCain favors some off-shore production and has been strong on nuclear development, he is against drilling in ANWR Alaska.

Then there’s the oil nobody is talking about. The Bakken fields beneath North Dakota, Montana, and Canada hold an estimated 400 billion barrels of oil. In comparison, Saudi Arabia’s biggest field, Gahawar, has an estimated 55 billion barrels, while ANWR has an estimated 10.4 billion barrels.

Hat tip to Mark Perry at the Carpe Diem blog site for these figures. Perry also is reporting a Bureau of Land Management study showing 279 million acres under federal management where oil and gas could potentially be extracted. But more than half of this is totally off limits. Off-shore, where another 86 billion barrels lie in wait, is also restricted. Then there’s liquefied natural gas, oil shale, and the various coal-to-liquid carbon-capture and sequestration technologies that would be priced out of the market by cap-and-trade.

The U.S. is the Saudi Arabia of coal, but we can’t produce. We’re still the world’s third-largest oil producer, but we could be the Saudi Arabia of oil if our companies were free to drill. Oil CEOs like Rex Tillerson of ExxonMobil and David O’Reilly of Chevron keep saying this. But politicians aren’t heeding their message.

Israeli saber-rattling against Iran could have accounted for some of last week’s huge oil spike. And the unemployment story may not be as bad as the May jobs report suggests. An unexpected inflow of teenagers probably bloated the jobless figure by a couple tenths of 1 percent. And economist Jerry Bowyer points out that an unprecedented hike in the minimum wage may be derailing students looking for summer work. However, in a sign of future job improvement, the civilian labor force grew by nearly 600,000, meaning that more people looking for work could signal recovery. Weekly jobless claims are near 350,000, not the 500,000 of past recessions. Overall, at 5.5 percent, unemployment continues to be historically low.

But the economy is still in a slump, not a boom. And the fact remains that Americans are very worried about the economic outlook. This could be a recession election. And right now voter economic anxieties are all about oil, even more than the sub-prime housing credit problem.

Sen. McCain has a great pro-growth plan to slash corporate tax rates, a move that would be a strong tonic for jobs and wages. But he must bolster that plan with a new emphasis on deregulated energy markets that can produce a total portfolio of conventional and non-conventional energy, including major new drilling. He should couple that with a strong-dollar message to curb both energy and non-energy inflation, which is shrinking consumer paychecks and damaging corporate profits.

More oil, more jobs, better wages, and low inflation. That’s a winning GOP message this fall. But what if Sen. Obama gets there first? It’s unlikely, but not out of the question. Either way, voters will move to the candidate who connects with their worries. Right now those worries are up for grabs.

Larry Kudlow, NRO’s Economics Editor, is host of CNBC’s Kudlow & Company and author of the daily web blog, Kudlow’s Money Politic$.

[joe68sg1]

You have to be kidding...
It is all about GETTING OFF OIL, not drilling for more.
Take the $Billions of profit & tax cuts for big oil and invest it in alternative fuels.
Then we can get out of Iraq because we will not need their oil anymore.
The cantidate that gets this message will be the best president ever...

[yongamerica]

Excuse me,
It''s the oil companies that are making the gross profits today. These are the same companies who will drill and make even greater profits from a resource that truly belongs to every citizen in the US and not just the Alaskans that have been getting subsidized from oil profits generated in their state.

Do not let the oil companies let you think that allowing them to drill will alleviate oil prices. The price of oil is unsubstantiated today, this is something Saudi Arabia has stated and is looking into.

Perhaps now is the time to socialize domestic oil production. Oil is more important than the US mail.

[irliberal]

More oil isn''t the answer. Moving off dependence on oil is the answer. Most intelligent, reasonable people understand that.

Not the NRO. They continue to pull the republican party line - STAY THE COURSE.

Biggest bunch of lemmings I ever saw. And we''re all in midair AFTER the cliff.

Time for Obama. Time for a change.

[bthrasher102]

If it''s really all about getting off oil and saving the environment, then $4 gasoline is the perfect solution. People can''t afford it and they will look to alternative fuels. Why haven''t we switched before now? Because oil/gasoline is the most economical fuel available. Unless you do something to change that, people will use it and won''t care about putting money into alternative fuels. Liberals want people to stop using gas, but keep gas at a cheap price. It won''t work, because as long as gasoline is cheap, people will continue to use it. Big oil is making record profits, but they are selling the most used product in the world. Their profit margins are far less than most companies. If other companies made sales of their products in similar numbers they would make far more than big oil.

[lorinkundert]

Time to send the activists packing, they are an insignificant voting block and do not speak for the majority, Drill that oil and build nuclear power plants.

[hober_mallow]

This article would have made more sense if the author had defined what ''cap and trade'' is. I''ve never heard the term.

Also, there''s an awful lot of empty space in Montana and N. Dakota that is not a wilderness area. Why are these off-limits to drilling? All I ever hear about is ANWR, ANWR, ANWR.

Why no mention of the oil in Montana, North Dakota and up in Canada. You''d think the local landowners (or whomever owns the mineral rights) would be falling all over themselves to start the drilling at $120 a barrel.

[Syndicate]

Screw gas! I''m building an Electric car.

[gkc99]

They''re not drilling because there isn''t enough oil most places to pay back drilling costs.

Same reason you don''t look for gold in Florida.

And if they drilled everyplace, when that''s gone, the crunch is going to be that much worse.

Typical $hit from the Nether Repugniscum Orif*ce!

[bluestardad]

NRO
YOU DONT GET IT!

TAKE YOUR PUBLICATION BACK TO THE MIDDLE EAST LOBBIEST WHO FUND IT ROLL IT UP IN A BALL AND STUFF IT!

AMERICA IS TIRED OF YOU AND YOUR LOBBIEST!

[p-syrus]

Fatuous Republican Corporate Toadies.

What is needed is a sensible approach to alternative energy supplies NOT more drilling. The cure for addiction is not more of the drug.

[ajmarine111]

What is needed is a sensible approach to alternative energy supplies NOT more drilling

Posted by p-syrus at 04:04 PM : Jun 10, 2008


The United States consumes about 400 million gallons (1.51 billion litres) of gasoline every day. That does not include other oil and oil products. If we are going to rely on alternative fuels only, we will have to come up with a massive progam to replace oil.

[element51]

I may be wrong about this but I was under the impression that oil was traded on the world market. If that is true it wouldn''t make any difference how much oil was produced in the US and off shore. It would be sold on the world market and would probably end up in Japan or some other country that has no oil. As for lowering prices, it wouldn''t because if there is an increase in supply it will cause an increase in demand so why all the fuss about drilling here? The NRO is just doing what they always do. Trying to make the republicans look like heros and the democrats look like the devil himself. Their articles are so slanted they almost slide off the page.

[Razzl]

I seem to recall an oil company guest on one of Kudlow''s recent shows pointing out that drilling in Alaska would require a decade of preparation--way too far ahead to affect prices now, and possibly unprofitable in the future if alternative energy technologies blossom. But it doesn''t matter to Kudlow and the right wing, they''ve always hated and carped about the Alaska drilling ban because for them it''s a symbol of the success of the environmental movement, one of their oldest defeats in the "culture wars". It''s a shame so much of political conservatism is built around catering to these knee-jerk reactions to things they find aesthetically displeasing, without rational foundations...

[texvet528]

Yup, Everyone knows the best way to get a crack addict off crack is to give him more, and find more sources.

The blinders these people wear must be EPIC.

[spm1213]

Why is it so difficult to get this process going? DRILL MORE OIL!!!!! Sheez! Enough of these rich and priveliged environmentalists telling the rest of us how to live- Im all for taking care of the planet- but we are gong to slip into insanity and anarchy if we dont get gas prices down.

[gmlamb]

Mr. Kudlow please tell me that, with the current extraordinary profits the oil companies have, they are busy drilling in Montana and North Dakota? Will these areas produce oil any sooner than the 10 years it will take to get the puny little amount available at ANWR? Also, are the oil companies investing in expanding refinery capacitie to handle the increased oil production that could not be handled with our current refinery capacity? I would argue that with the current pile of profits the oil companies are making. There is nothing stopping them from going ahead, an without help from the tax payor. Mr. Kudlow, would you like to place any bets on how much this will produce in reducing the price at the pump?

[notblue]

why do libs refuse the facts?
Fact, there is enough oil to supply cars and homes for 200 years on all sides of America, Alaska both coasts and the gulf.
Fact, congress hasn''t allowed access for over 30 years now, without access to these resources there is no incentive to build additional refineries which have not been built since the 70''s.
Fact, oil and auto are the same company and there will never be viable alternatives just the occassional dangled carrot of some new technology.
Fact If every grain of corn grown in America was converted to ethonal it would comprise less than five percent of the needed volume of fuel.

It''s time to open up these areas to reduce foreign dependence, compel increased refining and help in regards to the laws of supply and demand, stop the nonsensical politics and use these resources.

[G H M]

Voters are not saying drill they are saying ------Cheap alternative fueL!!!!!!!!

[cyberus-2009]

Looks like the shrubs tactics are working

[roger_inkart]

Can we begin to comprehend how much further down the road we would be if, instead of spending all that treasure and blood in Iraq, we had been working to develop renewable energy?

But, instead, Bushco and his braindead cheerleaders at the NRO charged into Iraq because they were all so convinced it was a great idea and would solve everything - including our oil problems.

But now that it didn''t work out, they''re looking for someone to blame.

You filthy, irreposible maggots make me sick.

[bushwacked91]

I say Drill, but not like theshafting we got from the Alaska pipeline that was suposed to help we the people, than sell all the oil to Japan.
If they are givin permission and mineral rights, make a rock solid contract that the oil will not br allowed to be sold off to another country because they can get more money, make it benifit the people of the US, other wise forget it.

[ajmarine111]

You filthy, irreposible maggots make me sick.

Posted by roger_inkart at 06:51 PM : Jun 10, 2008


Pretty harsh words when not directed at an individual and aimed at all the "You''s" on here.

[feelfree4u]

Larry Kudlow and the dead-brained idiots at the National Review Online have done such a bang-up job with their analysis and advice so far, why shouldn''t we listen to them now?

What could go wrong?

[markangeloo]

Why should this current profligate generation of people
get this oil in the ground ??

Shouldn''t some be left in the ground for future civilizations
perhaps even for better uses.

NASCAR still burns leaded gas round & round in a circle.
BURNS up this valuable petroleum just like we cut down
redwoods for fence-posts.

[skyk-2009]

George Bush came into office as an Oil Man, assuring us that HE would get involved should the price of oil get out of hand and that he had the pull to get it done. Vice President Cheney, put together a task force in secret and defied the wishes of the people to allow the public to know who was involed. His reasoning? They wouldn''t give him HONEST info so the best policy could be developed. To say that these two have failed in this area is to grossly understate the obvious.

[elz523]

The public wants more energy and more fuel to cut high prices and spur economic growth. But the costly cap-and-trade plan would produce less fuel and less growth. It would only raise gas pump prices while mounting a Gosplan-type taxing, spending, and regulating program that would be the moral equivalent of Hillarycare on nationalized medicine.


Kudlow you purposely miss the message of cap and trade. The reason for the cap is that we have a world that is warming. People may want more oil to burn, but it is not in our best interest to do so. Problably more improtant, it is not in our children''s best interest to do so.

So keep ignoring the issue NRO, keep prevaricating and chaing the subject. The world is still warming and your old solutions won''t help anyone.

[wogerwabbit]

Yes, let''s drill two holes in Larry Kudlow''s skull and perform the lobotomy. There''s no shortage of oil, there''s too many speculators. The same breed of financial predator that brought us the mortgage crisis and recession/depression have moved on to oil and gas futures and are the cause of today''s gas ruinous prices. I say we should hunt these people down and eliminate them for economic terrorism... they''re doing more damage to America than Bin Laden ever dreamed of on his most delusional day.

[element51]

WogerWabbit.....This is exactly how the Afghans took down the Soviet Union. The Russians spent themselves into oblivion trying to win a war that was not winnable. You are right...BinLaden could not have hoped for this kind of success. With the help he is getting from the speculators he knows it''s just a matter of time before the US will be broke. What a way to win a war.

[ubrew12]

Kudlow: "voters will move to the candidate who connects with their worries."

Hoover Dam took 30 years to pay off, but has been pumping money into America''s economy for 30 years since being paid off. THAT''s long term energy thinking, not the short term crapola that Kudlow is serving up as leftovers after his boy Bush blew our economy on the ''sure thing'' in Iraqi oil.

Hoover Dam is an example of our government spending money on renewable energy resources. Its the LAST thing necon capitalists like Kudlow want you thinking as a possible solution to the neocon-gifted oil-depression we''re currently experiencing. But... its the first thing you SHOULD be thinking. After the oil is drilled out of our wilderness areas and they are ruined, you''ll face these same tough renewable choices again, but WITHOUT your wild places (of course, to Kudlow''s breed, the only good wild place is a dead one).

[feelfree4u]

Looks like they''re on to you, Pudblow!

[feelfree4u]

I wonder if there is any oil in Larry Kudlow''s head?

Only one way to find out...

[cofmanaaron]

Unscientific vote: Here is one voter who does not want to just drill out of the problem, does see the record profits by the oil giants as outrageous, and does want money in alternative energy since we are near the end of the tap. Feel free to keep the votes coming. Agree? Disagree?

[irliberal]

The Republicans block all other strategies - their strategy is to force anwar drilling, and they don''t care if they force everyone to pay $10/gallon to do it.

I have news for all selfish, nasty Republicans: Soon, very soon, a Democratic president along with a filibuster proof Democratic majority in congress

You will not touch Anwar. The Arctic National Wildlife refuge will remain pristine, despite your worst efforts.

The solution is energy renewable energy alternatives everyone knows this. And that is what will happen. I am confident that two terms of GW Bush have taught the majority of the American public a harsh lesson they will not soon forget.

[irliberal]

Oop, below should have read "in congress will take power."

[samthetvcat]

What a strange argument to make . . . all the articles I''ve been able to find on the effect drilling in ANWAR would have on the price of gas say it wouldn''t even be possible for at least 9 years, and that after 20 it''d still only lower the price of a barrel of oil somewhere from 30 cents to $1.44 in today''s current prices based on oil''s current market price of around $140 (USNews, ''Arctic Drilling Wouldn''t Cool High Oil Prices'')

Contrast this with the observation made by the former chief of the New York Federal Reserve''s Industrial Economies Division that the weakened dollar has accounted for as much as $40 of the price increase in the cost of a barrel of oil. FORTY DOLLARS! (Wall Street Journal, ''Oil Is Up Because the Dollar Is Down'')

So if the assessments are true, the GOPigs are saying that they caused the price of a barrel of oil to rise around $40 a barrel, and we Dems are the bad guys because we won''t let the greedy GOP make restitutions for $1 of that $40 screw up which would involve destroying the homes of the Alaskan moose and bears.

GOP suck!

[variant_530]

C''mon people is a melding of all ideas called "distributed energy" contributing to a common grid. We''ll need this when all you "now" hippies plug in your hybrids. The coal fired power plants will be burning at their peak then. Go Long Coal.....

[brianbwb-2009]

"Voters Say "Drill" National Review Online: But Neither Presidential Candidate Gets It"

Probably because the voters who say "drill" have been brainwashed by the neocon-derthals, with the aid of a compliant and complicit media, into believing that drilling will solve problems that are not related to the supply.

America''s stockpiles are full, the reserves are at 98% capacity, but the price of oil is the result of monopolistic collusion to force US oil prices into line with the rest of the world.

Big oil''s profits are the highest in history, and they simply will not allow the price to drop, no matter how many barrels they suck from the ground.

Anyone believing otherwise deserves the a*nal reaming they are getting from Bush''s friends.

[brianbwb-2009]

"Sen. McCain has a great pro-growth plan to slash corporate tax rates, a move that would be a strong tonic for jobs and wages."

He must be keeping it to himself, because no one else has heard of the "great pro-growth plan", and everything we have heard so far is just more failed "trickle down" BS.

[brianbwb-2009]

"which is shrinking consumer paychecks and damaging corporate profits."

Again more neocon BS. Shrinking paychecks are the direct result of layoffs, union busting, and manufacturing relocation to slave labor states.

Corporate profits are down because of the decimation of the middle class, a direct result of neocon-derthal policies.

[brianbwb-2009]

"More oil, more jobs, better wages, and low inflation. That%u2019s a winning GOP message this fall."

The problem is that everyone knows it is a GOP lie. An oil glut will not lower prices, the only new jobs will be at a few new McDonald''s restaurants that open up, the GOP will never vote for anything that helps increase wages, (labor costs), and low inflation would be achieved by increasing poverty.

Try pushing those lies to the voter, and the GOP will be lucky to get any more than 10% of the vote.

[andylance1]

People forget that China is the second largest oil consumer, behind America. With the number of cars growing at 19% a year, projections show that China need for energy will increase 150 percent by 2020.

Almost 60% of China''s oil comes from the Middle East. It will increase to 70% by 2015. If we don''t buy gas at $4 a gallon, China will be happy to take up the slack.

Not to drill for oil in America is pure stupidity. Congress needs to remove its head from its rear ASAP.

[brianbwb-2009]

"Almost 60% of China''''s oil comes from the Middle East. It will increase to 70% by 2015. If we don''''t buy gas at $4 a gallon, China will be happy to take up the slack. Not to drill for oil in America is pure stupidity. Congress needs to remove its head from its rear ASAP."
Posted by andylance1

So why shouldn''t we as a people, reap the benefits of selling oil to the Chinese, why should the money go to a few private corporations?

If we drill, then the oil comes from American soil should be the property of the American people, not some unpatriotic private companies.

Nationalize all American oilfields, then the proceeds from the sale of oil will go to the US treasury.

[messiahx4eve]

The GOP is on a suicidal run and wants to take the whole planet with them, ALL life. The COST: Us, the taxpayers, Them, all profits and windfalls. Does this sound like a fair exchange, to the GOP and the oil companies, its a WINNER!!!!

[ljb6599]

There is not enough oil in this country to make a difference in oil prices.People are foolish and uninformed to believe that drilling could make a difference.The only thing that will help at this time is to decrease consumption and drive more fuel efficient cars.We had an opportunity to do something about this 20 years ago and we chose to do nothing.Now we all need to suffer the consequences!!

[consciousnes]

WHEN ARE PEOPLE, THE GOVERNMENT AND THE WORLD GOING TO REALIZE THAT THE TECHNOLOGY AND THE ABILITY TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF OIL IS "HERE NOW"
NOT NEXT YEAR, NOT THE NEXT DECADE, NOT THE NEXT CENTURY, BUT "NOW".
Quit *** around with the BS about oil and start working on the change that "NEEDS" to be done "NOW".
How many times do you have to hit an idiot in the head with a 2 x 4 to wake them up to the fact that oil if finite and we "NEED" to work on other forms of energy?
Water is the most plentiful resource on earth and can also be an extremely powerful energy source. The sun keeps the earth alive and can be used to produce water energy.
Lets go world, wake up and start NOW ! ! ! ! ! ! !!

[shingles1]

The National Review''s figures of "400 billion barrels of oil" for the Bakken Fields are pure junk.

The US Geological Service (part of the Dept. of the Interior) just this year estimated that up to 4.3 billion barrels of oil can be recovered from these fields.

4.3 billion is nothing to laugh at, but tossing out the 400 billion number is completely dishonest.

And by the ways I''m in favor of BOTH drilling here in US while at the same time funding a high priority search for alternative sources of energy.

[drivelphobe]

What the voters want means nothing to the politicians. They feel ordained with special knowledge about what is necessary. Somehow they know about oil, borders, windfall profits, entitlements for illegals, sanctuary city status, and the gifting of huge amounts of money to foreign countries, like the $1.6 billion to Mexico. We, the People, are only important during the election cycle. After that, we are nothing but a taxable mass with no ability to make any decisions about anything. We need t make more phone calls and shut their system down again. It is disgusting how these people perceive reality. Why shouldn''t we drill here? If there''s oil here then let''s get it. Let''s cut off relations with the primitive, inhuman hordes of middle-easterners. Where''s our nuclear program?

[aldon61]

This article is so slanted and biased as to be ridiculous. We need to break our dependence from foreign oil and start producing alternative evergy sources. The technologies are already here, but to date, no one is stepping up with a viable, mass produced product. I guess too many people are invested in EXXON, etal and don''t want to rock the boat; what a shame!

[homjett]

We can do all the things mentioned in most of these post. But not to drill along with finding other resources for energy is a being out of touch with the rest of the world. Wind is good for electric, solar is good for heating, but without oil there are so many products that cannot be made. We need to throw out these rich folk in Congress an get folks in that understand we need to drill an save our economy, which we can do without hurting the enviorment.

[jon2012-2009]

The NRO does a good job representing conservative views but sadly it has no track record of representing the facts fairly. True, there is oil in the ground here in the U.S. The important question is the amount that is available and still accessible. This article makes no reference as to how much more oil we can pump out of the ground and for how long to meet how much of current demand. My information is that it will boost a short-term spike in supply lasting less than a year but it will not erase the huge monthly oil bill we face from oil-producing countries. And the higher cost associated with extracting this oil will be compounded by more serious environmental damage. We need to see these numbers.

Would this guarantee relief at the pump? Good question. But it would sure make more money for special interests who are pulling out all stops. Next, what happens after this new oil is tapped out? We''ll be back where we were before but with worse problems with pollution and climate change. We might as well get started seriously restructuring the economy and changing our consumption. If the prospect of additional oil is going to hurt our ability to make those hard decisions, I''d say it''s not worth it.