Do VP Choices Matter?

CBS News' Kathy Frankovic Breaks Down Polling Evidence From Past Presidential Elections

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

---

Would adding Hillary Clinton to his ticket help the presumptive Democratic nominee, Barack Obama? Do vice presidential candidates matter?

The survey evidence is mixed, on the extent to which vice-presidential choices help a ticket win. Although one obvious reason for choosing a vice president is to help carry a particular state or region, many past choices have come from states that reliably vote for one party or the other. John F. Kennedy’s choice of Texan Lyndon Johnson, in 1960, is probably the last time a vice presidential candidate brought his home state along and made a difference. But when George H.W. Bush chose Senator Dan Quayle in 1988, it wasn’t because he was worried about carrying reliably Republican Indiana. Nor was his son, George W. Bush, worried about losing Wyoming’s three electoral votes in 2000, if he didn’t choose Dick Cheney.

The vice-presidential choice says something about a presidential candidate’s judgment, and frequently it cements a particular view of that presidential candidate in the minds of voters. Since the choice is typically made during or just before a party’s nominating convention, it may also be a way to add excitement to a ticket.

That was certainly the hope in 1984, when Walter Mondale picked Geraldine Ferraro as his vice-presidential nominee. Having the first woman on a major party’s ticket may have excited women’s groups, but only 23 percent of Democratic voters said they were “really excited about it” in a CBS News/New York Times Poll conducted right after he nomination. And nearly as many Democratic voters (19 percent) thought it was a “bad idea.” The exit poll that CBS News and the New York Times conducted that general election day suggested that- despite her supporters’ excitement - Ferraro’s presence on the ticket could only account for a gain of less than one percent of their national popular vote. In any case, whatever her impact, she and Mondale lost resoundingly to Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush.

But sometimes a vice presidential candidate appears to make more of a difference. Before the 1992 Democratic convention, our polls showed George H. W. Bush leading Bill Clinton by four points, 36 percent to 32 percent, with independent Ross Perot at 26 percent. After the convention and the nomination of Al Gore as Clinton’s running mate, plus Perot's temporary withdrawal from the contest, Clinton held a 23-point lead over Bush in the CBS News Poll.

But mostly the impact is less than that. Gore’s choice of Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, narrowed the gap between him and George W. Bush from 15 points to 10 points. Bush's naming Dick Cheney as his running mate had no discernible impact on support for the Republican ticket.

In 2004, Democrat John Kerry’s chose John Edwards, who had finished second to Kerry in the primaries. After the addition of the former North Carolina Senator, the Kerry-Edwards ticket had a five-point edge over Bush-Cheney, whereas before picking Edwards, Kerry had led Bush by just two points.

Only one in five voters admit that the choice of a vice presidential candidate has a great deal of influence on their vote - 21 percent said that in 2000, 16 percent in 2004. And in fact, elections are not about the vice presidential candidate. If they were, the outcomes might be different. In 1988, Democratic vice presidential candidate Lloyd Bentsen was viewed as having enough experience to be president - and by nearly a two-to-one margin. By more than two to one, voters thought Republican Dan Quayle did not have enough experience. When pitted head to head, just before that election, in a hypothetical vice president-only vote, Bentsen led Quayle 53 percent to 28 percent. But Quayle and his presidential running mate, George H.W. Bush, easily won that election.

So what about 2008? Nearly all the names now being discussed are not well-known except for the best-known - Hillary Clinton.

If she were chosen by Obama, Clinton probably would be the most well-known vice presidential nominee since Johnson. In the last CBS News Poll, conducted just as the nomination process was winding down (May 30-June 3), eight in ten registered voters had an opinion about her - even more than had an opinion about Obama. Forty one percent of registered voters viewed each of them favorably, but Clinton elicited more unfavorable opinions (39 percent) than Obama did (31 percent were unfavorable towards him).

Months ago, Obama himself was talking about how he was more electable than Clinton, basing his claim on poll data showing small differences in head to head matchups. In our new poll, he leads McCain by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent. But three in ten Democrats who supported Clinton for the nomination in that poll say right now that they would either vote for McCain or NOT vote at all in November (and in her head-to-head match-up with McCain, Clinton actually led by nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent).

Polls taken five months before an election aren’t much better predictors than the polls Obama was citing three months ago. They may even be worse predictors. But it’s fair to say that whomever Obama chooses will say a lot about him. Right now, about a third of the Clinton supporters may not be thrilled about the Obama victory. Just as many of those Clinton voters DON’T have a positive view of Obama as do have a positive view. But three out of four of them say Obama SHOULD pick her as his running mate. Maybe THAT choice would excite them about Obama’s candidacy.

[credibility2]

Cheney was really Bush. And if selected, Hillary Clinton will really be Obama. This is what occurs when the top person isn''t qualified and has to be propped up and supported by another with qualifications.

[ianlou]

In the History of the USA only two Vice Presidents were elected after their boss served two complete terms; they were John Adams (Vise Pres to George Washington) and George H.W. Bush (Vise Pres to Ronald Reagan) and McCain has the Shrubs reputation to get him elected - good luck.

[haoli25]

Is the VP important? Have McBush choose Dan Quayle and let''s see.

[rafterman1]

===There is still time to do the right thing. The DNC must do everything it can to convince the superdelegates that Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat who can win in November.===
posted by TruUSA

No, the right thing to do is to let the voters count. If Superdelegates were to come in and change the results if the vote, that would be disasterous for the Democratic party. That is no different than Bush losing the popular vote and still becoming president. If the Suoperdelegates change the balance, then we lose the right to complain about the 2000 election.

As far as the question of the VP mattering, it matters more for McCain than Obama. A 70+ year old with a cancer history, there is legitimate fear that McCain might not survive his term, making his VP pick even more important.

[l00ker]

He needs to choose someone close to his age, no more than 5 to to 10 years older, who has good bipartisanship skills and connections, and can work in tandem, or in his absense on the same page. This person should have a strong geopolitical and economic background and leaning, and should be able to assist him every step of the way in managing his cabinet. Sort of like the old Bill Cosby and Robert Culp duo.

[samthetvcat]

---"After the convention and the nomination of Al Gore as Clinton%u2019s running mate, plus Perot''s temporary withdrawal from the contest, Clinton held a 23-point lead over Bush in the CBS News Poll"---

Kathy, I enjoyed this article!

It''s interesting that Clinton chose somebody who on paper seems almost like him (?) Same age, same region, same politics (?)

Maybe it makes a difference that Clinton was the clear choice that year because then maybe people feel more comforted by having more of the same (?)

My new theory on picking VP''s which is that Candidates ought to figure out what the election''s going to turn on and then pick somebody accordingly. Lie if this election''s going to turn on the GOP slime machine plugging the idea of the ''scary black muslim'', maybe you want somebody in VP that in the face of GOP slime has the ability to conjure up the ideas of peace and prosperity so that''s the message that''s heard (?)

There is that drawback though of the Clintons also reminding values voters of Monica and the Impeachment and all that . . . maybe if Bill goes back to his charity work and the ''two for the price of one'' platform gets shelved, or would that sort of be contradictory, I don''t know . . .

[broadwayphi]

A refrigerator teamed up with a microwave would beat McSame in the fall.

OBAMA 08

[rafterman1]

===We will not back down, be bullied or pandered into supporting a disastrous candidate like Barack Obama. He has been tainted by too many real scandals. He will lose in a landslide loss in all 50 states. We will not vote for Barack Obama for president.===
Posted by TruUSA

Hillary has a good number of scandals too, as does McCain. No one is clean in this electiion. But if you don''t vote for Obama, then get ready for 4 more years of Bush. Personally, I didn''t care if it was Obama or Hillary. But now that it appears to be Obama, Hillary supporters can''t be crybabies about it. Unless McCain really shows something new over the next few months, we could be seeing a "third" Bush term. Obama at least gives a hope of change. Whether he can deliver or not is another question.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by TruUSA

[harrydoghiny]

"I am a member of the new Puma PAC, People United Means Action." TruUSA

Howya doin'', Rush!

[wayfedup]

Question: Do VP pics reall matter?

Answer: Richard B. Cheney. Anymore STUPID QUESTIONS?

[wayfedup]

Question: Do VP picks REALLY MATTER?

Answer: Richard B. Cheney. Anymore STUPID QUESTIONS?

(That looks a little better)

[haoli25]

Howya doin'''', Rush! Posted by HarryDoghiny


Great line!

[rafterman1]

===The clear majority of voters in our party have chosen Hillary Clinton as the one we want to face John McCain.===
Posted by TruUSA

Actually, that''s not true. Even if counting Michigan and Florida, and estimating Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington, which don''t release popular vote totals, Obama wins by 61,000 votes.

Estimate w/IA, NV, ME, WA* 18,107,710 48.1% 18,046,007 47.9% Obama +61,703 0.2%

===We will not vote for Barack Obama in November. We will stay home, vote a third party, and in the swing states we will vote for John McCain.===
Posted by TruUSA

Then you vote for four more years of Bush. So don''t come around here saying s h i t if McCain takes us down the same road as Bush is now.

[jerr11]

Do VP Choices Matter?


They do if the candidate is a walking corpse like McCain.

[taddles2]

"The clear majority of voters in our party have chosen Hillary Clinton as the one we want to face John McCain.

Posted by TruUSA at 05:27 PM : Jun 05, 2008"



Now lets take a look at what your knee jerk reaction to this is going to cost you. Hillary supporters turn away from Obama in November and vote for McCain, Obama loses. You get your revenge, McCain gets in office. What happens next? Hillary will be blamed, her political career will be over. Obama will become a martyr and will be elected handily in 2012 because he will be seen as having been backstabbed by Hillary supporters. McCain will have an opportunity to put 1 or 2 Conservative activist judges on the Supreme Court. Several states will file suit against Roe v Wade and the new 6-3 Conservative court will overturn Roe. The blame for that will fall (rightly or wrongly) squarely on Hillary and her supporters as backstabber''s and saboteurs.

If Hillary supporters support Obama and he wins, Hillary will have a huge amount of clout because Obama WILL OWE HER for the win because of her millions of supporters. If Obama loses and Hillary is shown to have worked hard to secure his win she will be vindicated and will win the 2012 nomination because she will be seen as having been the one who should have been chosen.

Either way it''s win win for Hillary if she and her supporters support Obama, either way it''s lose lose if she and her supporters do not support Obama.

Make your choice.

[jerr11]

Posted by dragonwagon5 at 05:44 PM : Jun 05, 2008


Sure.

Another possibility: McCadaver.

[denn034]

VP choices can make or break a candidate because, it speaks volumes about the choices they''d make if elected. Period! They are choosing a possible Presidential replacement if anything happens to them after they''re elected after all.

[missglo]

Yes it does. I will never vote for Hillary Clinton in any office.

[taddles2]

"VP choices can make or break a candidate because, it speaks volumes about the choices they''''d make if elected.

Posted by denn034 at 05:49 PM : Jun 05, 2008"


The choice of Dan Quayle by GHW Bush always confounded me. The guy had a record of really stupid comments before he was chosen by GHWB. I think that choice really came back to bite GHWB in the butt.

[sgtrds-e4]

They matter because as the last 7 p0lus years have shown us the VP can be the one running the country while using the president as basically a meat puppet.

[sgtrds-e4]

The VP also matters because if we had a decent VP for the last 7 years then someone would have taken Bush out by now. The horror of Di*cky Cheney is the only reason Bush is still alive.

[randynason]

What the hel* does a "vile pustule" have to do with a running mate? Let''s ask Di*khead Cheney. He''d know-

[haoli25]

The VP also matters because if we had a decent VP for the last 7 years then someone would have taken Bush out by now. The horror of Di*cky Cheney is the only reason Bush is still alive. Posted by SgtRDS-E4


You may just have won an all expense paid trip to GITMO for that one.

[robroyh390]

The choice of Dan Quayle by GHW Bush always confounded me. The guy had a record of really stupid comments before he was chosen by GHWB. I think that choice really came back to bite GHWB in the butt.

Posted by taddles2 at 05:52 PM : Jun 05, 2008"

Maybe it was just that ole GHW Bush ahd a premonition and wanted to show the world that there were other people as dumb as his son who could assume high office in america

[lorinkundert]

They sure do matter, I won''t chose any candidate who doesn''t pick a VP by a certain date, real soon.

[lovegetpeace]

Amazing how nobody cares who McBush, ooops sorry, McCain picks for running mate.

I guess this is the result of the urgency Americans have to get anybody ASAP but Bush and his clone McBush, ooops sorry, McCain.

[wooleywews]

He needs to choose someone close to his age, no more than 5 to to 10 years older, who has good bipartisanship skills and connections, and can work in tandem, or in his absense on the same page. This person should have a strong geopolitical and economic background and leaning, and should be able to assist him every step of the way in managing his cabinet.

That sounds like John Mc Cain. Why not save the time and vote for Mc Cain as President.

[samthetvcat]

---"The choice of Dan Quayle by GHW Bush always confounded me. The guy had a record of really stupid comments before he was chosen by GHWB. I think that choice really came back to bite GHWB in the butt"---
Posted by taddles2

That was the ''potatoe'' guy, wasn''t it? Maybe the choice felt really comfortable and familiar to GHWB and reminded him of his son (?) ;p

[samthetvcat]

---"Maybe it was just that ole GHW Bush ahd a premonition and wanted to show the world that there were other people as dumb as his son who could assume high office in america"---
Posted by RobRoyh390

LOL I didn''t see this one. Ha ha ha everybody''s thinking the same thing :D

[greatdrivew]

Posted by lovegetpeace at 07:14 PM : Jun 05, 2008

Amazing how nobody cares who McBush, ooops sorry, McCain picks for running mate.

I guess this is the result of the urgency Americans have to get anybody ASAP but Bush and his clone McBush, ooops sorry, McCain.

*******

love:

You''re right, Americans do feel a fierce sense of urgency. However, you lost me when you wrote about McCain picking a running mate.

Didn''t you get the message? Joseph Lieberman does the thinking for McCain, and soon be announcing his own appointment as VP.

I mean come on, we can''t have McCain running around half cocked without Lieberman there to watch over him.

[sistatee-2009]

As long as the Bildabergers are running things, it doesn''t even matter who the president is.

[sueann702]

Ok let''''''''s then vote for McBush so we can pay $7.00 a gallon for fuel, 100 Year in Iraq to kill more Americans on a war that is not making us safe, more GI suicides, more poor care for our vets, spend billions on Iraqis instead of Americans, get into a bigger recession and bigger debt with world that we have to put a "for sale " sign for the highest bidder,
have a NAFTA super highway so Mexicans and Canadians can roam our country and do whatever they please, allow the continuation of secret prisons, torture and detain anyone w/o reason, allow the National ID Act so we can all be monitored by the government, HR1955 where all Americans can be considered the enemy, a party whos leader called the Constitution "just a piece of paper".

Yeah, we really want McBush.
Go F yourself.

[sgtrds-e4]

The VP also matters because if we had a decent VP for the last 7 years then someone would have taken Bush out by now. The horror of Di*cky Cheney is the only reason Bush is still alive. Posted by SgtRDS-E4


You may just have won an all expense paid trip to GITMO for that one.

Posted by haoli25 at 06:50 PM : Jun 05, 2008

I hear Cuba is beautiful this time of year.

;-)

[mariann2269]

ITS A KNOWN FACT YOUR ASSUMPTION OF "Polls taken five months before an election aren%u2019t much better predictors than the polls Obama was citing three months ago" IS A FAULTY COMPARISON AND OF VERY LITTLE SUBSTANCE. The timeline alone, anything can happen so to continuously quote a dated poll on how THE MAJORITY OF Clinton''s supporters will not vote for Obama or vote McCain or sit out the election in November, is JUST A REFLECTION OF YOUR OWN OPINION (AND PROBABLY DISLIKE OF OBAMA), and NOT the FACTS. THANKS GOODNESS IT''S ONLY YOUR OPINION AND NOTHING MORE!

[nanging3]

Please sign to get Father Pfleger removed permanently.



http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1
/removable-of-father-
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[galvestontex]

McSame: %u201CWell let%u2019s play nice .%u201D

[nanging3]

VP doesn''t matter, I am hoping Hillary does not get on the ticket with Obama.
I would never vote for any ticket with Obama on it.

Please sign to get Father Pfleger removed permanently.



http://www.thepetitionsite.com
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[galvestontex]

Yes Vice Presidents can matter because they can become the President in a heartbeat. That''s exactly why Clinton can''t be his pick (wink!).

[nanging3]

Please sign to get Father Pfleger removed permanently.
He is a disgrace to the Catholic church.


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[galvestontex]

Obama/ Edwards 08! Done Deal!

[galvestontex]

sueann702 You go girlfriend!

[galvestontex]

$900 Billion on the Iraq War! $900 Billion! And McSame will continue spending. Because we are a gluttonous nation and we need that oil, because we won%u2019t dirty up out own back yard and we%u2019ll never give up our cars UNTIL WE ARE FORCED TO.

[galvestontex]

Oh well same old same old in here.

[galvestontex]

I%u2019m going to go over to ABC (a.k.a. the real Clinton campaign headquarters) and rattle sabers. Then, to CNN. I don%u2019t even bother with F-U-X News. Fair and balanced my A-S-S. Nothing but T&A over there. Some nice cleavage though.

[galvestontex]

Goodnight America. Goodnight CBS. Goodnight John Boy.

[davef1001]

I''m one of those voters who will be voting McKain
instead of Obama..I was a "demon crat", but after
my fellow democrats bashed Hillary,
I''m switching to Republican.
How can that disgusting Nancy Pelosi,and idiot Ted Kennedy nominate an arrogant muslim who wants to attack Pakistan????!!!
Obama says he didn''t vote for the war,but''s that''s because he wasn''t around..Everything he voted for in Illinois was simply the "undecided" button,
(The worst type of politician,one who''s afraid!!)
Besides it was these same dems who refused to impeach King George Bush!!!!
I THOUGHT MY FELLOW DEMOCRATS WERE SUPPOSED TO NOMINATE THE CANDIDATE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF BEATING MCKAIN???!!!
(HILLARY HAS THE HIGHER CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE POLLS!)
OH I SEE, I GUESS IT''S NOT THE PEOPLE WHO MATTER,BUT THE GREEDY SUPERDELEGATES THAT OBAMA PAID OFF WITH HIS REZKO TERRORIST MONEY!!

I CAN''T WAIT UNTIL "OBAMINATION" GETS CRUSHED IN THE FALL,WHEN ALL THE REPUBLICAN "RED STATES" HE WON BETRAY HIM!!!!!!
I CAN SEE THE HEADLINES: "STUPID DEMOCRATS LOSE...AGAIN!!"
AT LEAST HILLARY WON THE TRADITIONAL DEMOCRATIC STATES,PLUS FLOR.,TX.,OHIO,ARIZONA,TENN,KENT.,WEST VIRG.,ETC..!!!!! OBAMA IS LUCKY HE''LL WIN
ILLINOIS!!

Dave F.
Pittsburgh

[mr2258]

Barack Hussein Obama--Take the veneer of the suit off,take away the telepromptor.and what do you have? A graceless and insolent upstart who hasn''t a CLUE what it means to run this country.

In this election, Obama''s choice will make him or break him because the party is in disunity. There is a great deal of feeling behind the votes this year...Clinton supporters are a very vocal and large part of the party and obviously they want Hillary to be chosen for VP as the poll shows.
Not only that, Hillary won more states in the latter part of the primary season than prior to that...even when it was obvious that she would be a long shot. It is telling that today''s Gallup Poll shows Obama winning in November with Hillary...but only tying McCain without her. He would be wise to select Hillary.

[nanging3]

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[mr2258]

Obama dragged older Joe Lieberman across the senate floor, pushed him against the wall and gave him a 5 min. tongue lashing.Is this the change Obama is talking about.