Sizing Up A McCain-Obama Battle

CBSNews.com Reports: What To Expect In General Election Matchup Between Two Candidates Who Are Both Historic And Flawed

(CBS)  This story was written by CBSNews.com political reporter Brian Montopoli.

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Although the political world is still awaiting Hillary Clinton’s final exit from the stage, the long drama of who will represent the major parties in November's presidential contest finally - mercifully, some might say - drew to a close Tuesday night. (Full story here.) For the next five months, barring the extremely unexpected, Barack Obama and John McCain will square off day-by-day in one of the most historic elections in modern history.

And on Tuesday night, both candidates offered a glimpse of their opening arguments. “In just a few years in office, Senator Obama has accumulated the most liberal voting record in the Senate,” McCain said in a speech delivered before Obama had the chance to claim victory. “But the old, tired, big government policies he seeks to dust off and call new won't work in a world that has changed dramatically since they were last tried and failed. That's not change we can believe in.”

“It's not change when John McCain decided to stand with George Bush ninety-five percent of the time, as he did in the Senate last year,” Obama countered in his victory speech. “It's not change when he offers four more years of Bush economic policies that have failed to create well-paying jobs, or insure our workers, or help Americans afford the skyrocketing cost of college - policies that have lowered the real incomes of the average American family, widened the gap between Wall Street and Main Street, and left our children with a mountain of debt.”

Let the general election campaign begin.

In broad terms, Democrats have reason to be optimistic: The electoral landscape is presently more favorable to a Democratic nominee than at any time in recent memory. As he nears the end of his second term, President Bush's approval rating is below 30 percent, and, more broadly, Americans have signaled widespread dissatisfaction with the Republican Party. Already this year, Democrats have won three House seats in districts considered GOP strongholds in special elections, prompting anguished appeals from GOP leaders imploring their members to find a new direction - or else.

Also working in the Democrats' favor: A large majority of Americans have become pessimistic about an economy long overseen by a Republican president. The Iraq war has also become a political liability for the GOP, with nearly six in ten Americans telling CBS News the U.S. should have stayed out of the country.

Democrats, meanwhile, have repeatedly seen record turnout during the primaries. Their candidates have enjoyed unprecedented fundraising success, and Obama is poised to become the first candidate to turn down public financing in the general election.

In addition, "the balance of party identification in the American electorate now favors the Democratic Party by a decidedly larger margin than in either of the two previous presidential election cycles," according to the Pew Research Center.

"Every structural feature on the political landscape tilts in favor of the Democratic nominee," according to William Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former advisor to Bill Clinton.

"There's not a lot of precedent for someone from the same party as the incumbent running successfully in circumstances that are perceived to be as bad economically as the electorate perceives the situation to be right now," Galston said. "And running in the face of a deeply unpopular war, especially when the nominee of the incumbent party is unwilling to end the war. When you add to that the extraordinary drop in GOP identification, the surge in Democratic registration, the palpable enthusiasm gap, the fundraising gap, you put all these things together, you have to think the McCain candidacy will be an uphill climb."

Democrats will work throughout the campaign to define McCain as a true representative of his party, said Democratic strategist Mark Mellman.

"You're going to be seeing Democrats argue that McCain represents four more years of George Bush, both in Iraq and here at home," said Mellman. "Barack Obama is going to offer change, and John McCain offers more of the same failed Bush policy."

But that argument is perhaps harder to make against McCain than other Republicans, thanks to the Arizona senator's public image as a maverick willing to break with his party. McCain is "the one candidate who can win in this climate," said Republican pollster Whit Ayres, echoing the general consensus of strategists in both parties. "He's a different kind of Republican in an era that is looking for a different kind of Republican."

Veteran Republican strategist Tucker Eskew, a former aide to Mr. Bush, said Republicans have reason to be "cautiously optimistic" about McCain's chances despite the electoral landscape. He cites Obama's perceived lack of experience and the strength of McCain's brand as an independent thinker, established through his past breaks with his party on issues like taxes and campaign finance reform.

"The brand is stronger than wishful-thinking Democrats believe it is," said Eskew. "I actually detect a strain of excess optimism by some Democrats about this question. If Senator Obama is not careful, this 'third Bush term' thing is going to be just beaten into the ground and start to sound ridiculous, and that's a function of Senator McCain's brand being as strong as it is."

University of New Hampshire political analyst Dante Scala notes that the electoral landscape didn't look particularly good for Mr. Bush in 2004, but he was still able to defeat Democratic nominee John Kerry.

"The Republicans managed to make the election more about Kerry, and to raise significant doubts about him," said Scala. "That's the hope this time. Obama is going to have to overcome the doubts that have arisen about him in the past few months."

The campaigns, Galston said, will generally not be focused on pushing their candidate towards to center of the political spectrum. Instead, he said, "each will be trying to shove the other candidate out of the center." For Republicans, that means portraying Obama as a naive liberal whose rhetoric contradicts the reality of his record.

"Senator Obama's experience, as limited as it is, cuts against one of his proclaimed core values - unconventional thinking and a willingness to cross the partisan divide," said Eskew. "He has a record that is conventionally liberal, and shallow on any example of cross-partisan accomplishments, where McCain is really quite strong."

Ayers articulated the other charge that will likely be repeatedly leveled at Obama in the general election battle - that he is an out-of-touch elitist, a change also leveled at Kerry four years ago. It's a perception stoked by Obama's comments at a closed-door San Francisco fundraiser about small town voters who cling to guns and religion.

"Obama has horrible problems with blue collar voters right now," he said. "...and a big part of it is cultural. He has come across in recent weeks as a candidate who feels more comfortable at Berkeley or Harvard than he does anywhere in between. A lot of blue collars voters just don't see him as as patriotic as they are. They don't believe he loves America as much as they do. They want their president to be their country's #1 cheerleader, and they don't see Obama as that guy."

McCain, meanwhile, has to position himself as a change candidate despite a long tenure in Washington that has led some pundits to compare his bid to the failed 1996 candidacy of Bob Dole. He will also have to allay fears about his age: McCain will be 72 on inauguration day, which would make him the oldest incoming president in history. Though Democrats have vowed not to spotlight the age issue, Democratic political consultant Garry South suggested they won't have to.

"It will be obvious to people," said South. "All he needs is 2 or 3 senior moments and no one has to talk about age." In 1996, Dole famously fell from a stage during a California campaign rally, prompting late-night jokes about the frailty of the then 73-year-old Republican nominee.

McCain will also need to walk a delicate line as he tries to win over the independents whom both candidates view as key to the election, while also placating the Republican base that helped Mr. Bush to victory in the last two elections - and that remains skeptical about McCain as the GOP standard bearer. As South points out, McCain has been losing up to 30 percent of the primary vote in recent primaries, despite having long since effectively locked up the nomination.

"He has a huge base problem," said South. "They just aren't satisfied with him."

Democrats, Galston said, will seek to define McCain as far from the moderate that independent voters think him to be, spotlighting issues like McCain's pro-life position on abortion.

"The basic strategic imperative of the Obama campaign is to do whatever they can against McCain's effort to separate himself from the Bush administration," said Galston. "They have to say McCain is campaigning as a maverick and a moderate, but on the issues you care about most - the economy, war, health care - he is, if anything, more conservative than Bush. So don't be fooled by shows of moderation on second and third tier issues. On first tier issues, he is Bush on steroids."

Obama, in his effort to win over independents, will spotlight his biography and downplay his association with his controversial former reverend, Jeremiah Wright, whom he publicly broke with in a speech last month. His campaign will also look to build on its robust state-by-state voter registration and mobilization efforts that it created for the primary battle, drafting young and new voters that could help offset any weakness Obama has with the blue-collar voters who flocked to Clinton in the latter part of the Democratic primary campaign.

Both candidates will seek the upper hand on the economy - an area where neither candidate is perceived to be an expert - and national security. McCain, like Clinton, has cast Obama as naive and reckless when it comes to foreign policy, criticizing the Illinois senator for his stated willingness to meet with leaders of rogue countries without preconditions and for comments that McCain says signal that Obama does not take the threat of Iran sufficiently seriously. Obama has countered that McCain "wants to double down" on Bush's "failed policy" and argued that "tough, disciplined and direct diplomacy" is the essence of strong presidential leadership.

Thanks to his relative moderation on immigration issues, McCain is better positioned than many of his Republican primary rivals to win over the Latino voters that could be the key to winning states like Nevada and New Mexico. It's a group Obama has struggled to win over during the primary campaign, and he will look to key supporters like New Mexico governor Bill Richardson, a former rival for the nomination who has endorsed Obama, to mobilize their support. Obama may also benefit from the traditional strength of the Democratic Party brand among Latino voters.

South, the Democratic consultant, suggested that Obama could outspend McCain two- or three-to-one in the general election campaign, arguing that the Chicago senator has the potential to raise $500 million. Though the fundraising gap is a major concern for Republicans, the Republican National Committee and other groups are prepping unprecedented efforts on McCain's behalf.

"Barack Obama is going to see a barrage of ads that dwarfs dramatically the swift boat attacks against Kerry," said Democratic consultant Steve Jarding.

Unlike the Democratic primary campaign, which often seemed a battle of competing styles in the absence of any significant policy differences between the candidates, the general election campaign will feature candidates with substantive differences on matters like the war, the economy, and health care. Whether the election is a referendum on these matters or on the candidates themselves remains anyone's guess.

"I've thought all along that Obama is kind of a high risk/high reward candidate," said Scala. "This could be an election that isn't close either way."

[jonesforch]

Read your history 1968 that was a year that changed everything.

[sueann702]

Since it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN when seeking major public office in the United States, Barack Hussein Obama has joined the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background.



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Posted by jack3213 at 12:17 PM : Jun 05, 2008

Ok let''s then vote for McBush so we can pay $7.00 a gallon for fuel, 100 Year in Iraq to kill more Americans on a war that is not making us safe, spend billions on Iraqis instead of Americans, get into a bigger recession and bigger debt with world that we have to put a "for sale " sign for the highest bidder,
have a NAFTA super highway so Mexicans and Canadians can roam our country and do whatever they please, allow the continuation of secret prisons, torture and detain anyone w/o reason, allow the National ID Act so we can all be monitored by the government, HR1955 where all Americans can be considered the enemy, a party whos leader called the Constitution "just a piece of paper".

Yeah, we really want McBush.
Go F yourself.

[sueann702]

What has the GOP done for America?
$4.00+ gas? Recession? Dead Soldiers on a war that is not making us safe? Billions for Iraqis instead of Americans? calling the constitution "just a piece of paper"? HR1955 where all American can be considered the enemy? Martial Law? huge trade debt? mismanage and fail hurricane katrina? corruption? ok to torture? allow Bin Laden to plot another 9/11? monitor everyone with a national ID? tax breaks for the wealthy and screw everyone else? Poor care for our vets? weak military? What has the GOP done for THE AMERICAN PEOPLE? Nothing.


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[volforpoladv]

Referendum on the War
The presidential election won%u2019t happen until November, but a de facto referendum on whether to continue the war in Iraq for another year is underway this week in Congress.

According to House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer, the House of Representatives is expected to vote again on Iraq war funding (HR 2642) sometime during the week of 6/9/08. Regardless of whether you support or oppose the war in Iraq, this week is a window of opportunity to contact your representatives and %u201Cvote%u201D on whether to continue the war in Iraq.

Congress Out of Sync
Recent statistics show that Congress is grossly out of sync with the voters on Iraq war funding. On 5/15/08, only 35% of the House voted %u201Cnay%u201D on war funding. On 5/22/08, only 26% of the Senate voted %u201Cnay%u201D on war funding. Contrast this with 68% of the public who oppose the war in Iraq, as reported by a CNN poll on 4/28/08. Unless public feedback changes that dynamic, Congress is working to deliver funding to continue another full year of the war in Iraq with few or no restrictions.

[jack3213]

Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim.

He is quick to point out that, "He was once a Muslim, but that he also attended Catholic school." Obama''''s political handlers are attempting to make it appear that Obama''''s introduction to Islam came via his father, and that this influence was temporary at best. In reality, the senior Obama returned to Kenya soon after the divorce, and never again had any direct influence over his son''''s education. Lolo Soetoro, the second husband of Obama''''s mother, Ann Dunham, introduced his stepson to Islam. Obama was enrolled in a Wahabi school in Jakarta. Wahabism is the RADICAL teaching that is followed by the Muslim terrorists who are now waging Jihad against the western world. The terrorists that crashed into the Twin Towers were once all enrolled in the study of Wahabism..just as Obama was!!

Since it is politically expedient to be a CHRISTIAN when seeking major public office in the United States, Barack Hussein Obama has joined the United Church of Christ in an attempt to downplay his Muslim background.

[whitepicks2]

At first, McCain proposed only 3 debates. Obama countered with 10, and we all know there''s no way McCain makes it through 10 without blowing his top in a purple-faced, profanity-laced outburst on live TV.

But, besides that gem, there should be a great debate on huge issues between two candidates who have vastly different positions.

[dante805]

Chicago businessman Antoin "Tony" Rezko, 52, was convicted Wednesday of fraud, money laundering and aiding and abetting bribery in a plot to squeeze illegal payoffs out of firms hoping to do business with the state.

Rezko has known Obama since he entered politics, raised money for his Illinois campaigns and was involved in a 2005 real estate deal with him. Obama has donated $150,000 in Rezko-related contributions to charity. Obama issued a statement saying he was "saddened" by the verdict. "

And who is now supporting Obama: Fidel the great: Fidel Castro, who wrote in a column for Cuba%u2019s Granma newspaper Monday that Obama is %u201Cthe most progressive candidate to the U.S. presidency.%u201D

Dont forget that Hugo Chavez and ahkmadinanutjob has also endorsed Obama. And. Jimmy the peanut Carter as well.

[abbe91]

Posted by whatithink at 07:19 PM : Jun 04, 2008

Great post.

[nanging3]

Pfleger is temporarily suspended%u2026not good enough%u2026 please click on my name in blue to sign and comment to the ArchBishop%u2026we want him permanently gone%u2026his parishioners say he has been preaching %u201CBlack Theology%u201D from the catholic church pulpit, entrusted to him since 1981.

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/
1/removable-of-father-michael-pfleger


The whole world is watching !

[bukco13]

haha, gaffe machine? you realize Obama said there was 57 states right?

[realpatriot1]

John McCain...The stubborness of Bush coupled with the senility of Reagan.

The daily gaffe machine wants a series of Town Hall Debates. This ought to be good. Really Good!

[bukco13]

by the way, the "well-intentioned Liberal" comment was in reference to you damning all "Re-Cons" (and I''d have to say you''re method categorization is a bit flawed at best) to Hell.

[bukco13]

There are definitely some major problems with corporate america. What I support, as well as McCain and Obama, is transparency for CEO''s and their companies. But there is no reason that companies as a whole should be punished for doing better. If the companies grow, they need new labor, thus there are more jobs created, also labor''s value increases and so wages go up.
And in your rant against all "Re-Cons," which as far as I can tell is anyone who doesn''t hold all of the far left''s ideas, you failed to address most of what I said earlier.

[bukco13]

haha, well so much for the well-intentioned, moral liberals.

anyway, first: "Well paid,well trained Employees increase profits much more than transient labor who never ''''take roots''''" you are absolutely right. So if a company wants to make more profits, increase productivity of labor, etc... they will increase wages, through the FREE MARKET. the best example would have to be Ford when he doubled wages from 2.5 a day to 5 a day to attract the best labor and encourage them to work harder and keep their jobs. It wasn''t the government that told him to double wages but the market. Obama talks about protecting American jobs though and how exactly would you do that? You have to give companies incentives to produce here. If they are forced to pay more than value the labor, they''ll open businesses somewhere else. An example is Ford''s recent decision to start production of a new line in Mexico.
You''re right, they have had only a slime majority and did get vetoed many times. Can you give me an example though of any of the measures Bush has vetoed that would have fixed our economy? Something that did get past his veto is the hugely corrupt, $300 billion farm subsidy bill which I already mentioned. It doesn''t help our deficit to spend so much money giving subsidies to millionaires.
As for Corporations running untamed, and how Oil companies should be punished, Exon Mobil''s proits have increased by only %12 whereas the increase in profits for some food companies... 289%!

[who__am__i_]

The Wright way to have Damnation with Obamanation!
Hello, my name is Barack Hussein Obama and I will be running for president!
I and my wife and my children, have learned 20 years of hate speech of whites keeping us blacks down,

We will change America! I promise you this America. You will get change!
Do you hear me you will get change!
Listen to me loud and clear YOU WILL GET CHANGED.

[who__am__i_]

Who_Am_I

Hello, my name is Barack Hussein Obama and I will be running for president!
What you may not know about me is that I have been in a black supremacy racist church for 20 years, sorry. All of the reverends there have shouted racial things in my church? The people men and woman and children, I and my wife and my children, have learned 20 years of hate speech of whites keeping us blacks down, we know this to be true that%u2019s why we stayed there for 20 years but now because of the election in order to get our message out I am cutting my ties with this church for now. I have taken the cause for change because of the things learned at my church? I will allow my good fried Louis Farrakhan into the White house as maybe the secretary of state. We will change, because of the 20 years of hate speeches, America! We will change America! We will change America!

We will change America! I promise you this America. You will get change!
Do you hear me you will get change!
Listen to me loud and clear %u201CYOU WILL GET CHANGE.%u201D

[who__am__i_]

There are 50 Muslims in Iraq to every 1 American posting here in America. They report you if you say something of value on information about Obama ALL THE mUSLIMS REPORT YOU!

[neobrian-2009]

You Asked For It,Bucko
Democrats have had a Slim Majority,...Shrub ,Who Never Knew what a Veto was,...Used his Veto Power Every time Congress tried to take action against '' The Criminal Re-Con Society''
Well paid,well trained Employees increase profits much more than transient labor who never ''take roots''
The Oil barons have manipulated the Oil Futures and the Market price to achieve Out of Sight Vulgar Profits while Driving Up the Prices of Everything,..
Corporate USA ran Untamed,..With Shrub standing by applauding and watching his Re-Con pals become wealthy beyond their wildest expectations.Insurance,Oil,Corrupt Defense Contractors ,Blackwater(gate),Halliburton and other Shrub favorites have All had their role in " The Rape of The USA ",...
YES,..Re-Cons and ALL Who Uphold them ,Have a Special Place in Hell,...the OIL -Fired Furnace'' of BUSHCO

[bukco13]

neobrian, how about instead of throwing names around as if we were in kindergarten, you actually reply to any of things I have said. Good intentions don''t necessarily translate into positive effects. I believe we''ve had a democratic congress for the past two years as well as a republican president.
and to liberalme, McCain agrees and disagree with Bush on some things as does Obama. Obama and Bush both support the huge amount subsidies for ethanol despite the fact that it does more harm than good to the environment and his been extremely harmful to food prices. Obama also supports the 300 billion dollar farm bill (which would give subsidies even to farming families making over 2 million dollars!) Under Bush, government spending increased dramatically, a patter Obama intends to continue.

[liberalme]

I don''''t mean this to sound as insulting as it may have come off, imitating whatithink''''s format, but in the word''''s of Obama (even though he can''''t come up with an example) "Democrats don''''t have a monopoly on good idea''''s."

Posted by Bukco13 at 08:30 PM : Jun 04, 2008


But they''ve got to be much better than the "ideas" Bush and Cheney have had the past 71/2 years!