Obama Has Edge In Montana, Poll Says
U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, right, and Australia's Defense Minister Stephen Smith, left, attend the opening session of the IISS Shangri-la Security Summit in Singapore on Friday June 1, 2012. (AP Photo/Wong Maye-E) / Wong Maye-E
The Rocky Mountain region represents friendly terrain for Barack Obama, who is angling to add Montana to his string of victories on Tuesday.
Demographically, the state would seem to suit rival Hillary Rodham Clinton almost perfectly - overwhelmingly white and rural. But political observers and a statewide poll suggest Obama has the advantage here.
The Illinois senator has outperformed Clinton in Rocky Mountain states, winning contests in Colorado, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming. Clinton won Arizona and a cliffhanger in New Mexico.
Only 16 delegates are at stake in Montana's primary, but depending on several other factors - what the Democratic National Committee rules panel decides this weekend about seating Florida and Michigan delegations and Puerto Rico's primary Sunday - the state could put Obama over the top for the nomination. He was about 40 delegates shy of victory on Friday.
South Dakota holds its primary the same day, but Montana's polls close an hour later, giving the state bragging rights to the finale in an epic marathon that has stretched from Jan. 3 to June 3, pausing in every state and spanning the globe as Americans living in dozens of countries cast ballots.
Clinton hopes wins in Montana and South Dakota will help persuade some of the nearly 200 yet-to-be-claimed superdelegates - elected officials and party leaders awarded a vote at the Democratic National Convention by virtue of their positions - to side with her and carry her campaign to the convention in August.
Three of Montana's eight superdelegates have endorsed Obama, while the rest say the outcome of the primary will help shape their decision.
More than 90 percent of Montana's residents are white and less than 75 percent have completed at least four years of college. The largest minority, American Indians, comprise about 7 percent of the population. Those are similar to demographics Clinton owned in earlier primaries.
But voters here may not fit the mold of the rural, working-class voters that backed Clinton in Appalachian and Rust Belt states. A recent poll showed Obama with a 17-point lead in Montana, although 13 percent of likely Democratic voters were still undecided.
Obama hopes a Montana victory will convince doubters that he can sway rural, white voters and compete against Republican John McCain in the Mountain West, where guns and the economy are key. Some political strategists contend Democrats have an opportunity to move three Rocky Mountain states - Colorado, Montana and New Mexico - into their column in the general election.
"The West shows in great contrast that Obama does appeal to this demographic they claim we don't do well with," said Obama state director Gabe Cohen.
Clinton's campaign has again turned to small towns, a strategy that has worked well in other states. Former President Bill Clinton has made five trips across Montana, stopping in places such as Havre and Lewistown that have never experienced such attention from a high profile political figure.
"If you add all the undecideds to her column, then you've got something approximating a dead tie in Montana," said Kenneth Bickers, a University of Colorado political analyst who has been tracking the race. "And at this point, she can't just tie. She has to beat him."
Clinton supporters are quick to point out that she does much better in primaries than in caucuses. And Clinton could benefit from her appeal to more conservative voters, another demographic she has courted.
Montana has a high percentage of gun owners, although it's hard to say who that would help - or hurt.
Gun owners remember, generally with disdain, the gun control measures of the Clinton administration. But Obama has gun control baggage of his own, which resurfaced after he was heard saying rural voters in small Pennsylvania towns "cling to guns and religion." In recent weeks, he has been trying to convince Western voters that "sensible" gun control won't get in the way of their traditions.
Political scientist Craig Wilson of Montana State University-Billings said he thinks Obama's comments about rural voters could be damaging in Montana.
"Some of that took a little luster off that big charisma," Wilson said.
But Obama may benefit from an early start in the state: He was first to open local campaign offices and was alone running TV ads until Clinton recently launched her first spot in the state.
The primary is open to all voters, and the Democratic race is expected to attract crossover Republicans and independent voters.
"It will probably be the independents who decide which way it goes," Wilson said.
© 2009 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Demographically, the state would seem to suit rival Hillary Rodham Clinton almost perfectly - overwhelmingly white and rural. But political observers and a statewide poll suggest Obama has the advantage here.
The Illinois senator has outperformed Clinton in Rocky Mountain states, winning contests in Colorado, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming. Clinton won Arizona and a cliffhanger in New Mexico.
Only 16 delegates are at stake in Montana's primary, but depending on several other factors - what the Democratic National Committee rules panel decides this weekend about seating Florida and Michigan delegations and Puerto Rico's primary Sunday - the state could put Obama over the top for the nomination. He was about 40 delegates shy of victory on Friday.
South Dakota holds its primary the same day, but Montana's polls close an hour later, giving the state bragging rights to the finale in an epic marathon that has stretched from Jan. 3 to June 3, pausing in every state and spanning the globe as Americans living in dozens of countries cast ballots.
Clinton hopes wins in Montana and South Dakota will help persuade some of the nearly 200 yet-to-be-claimed superdelegates - elected officials and party leaders awarded a vote at the Democratic National Convention by virtue of their positions - to side with her and carry her campaign to the convention in August.
Three of Montana's eight superdelegates have endorsed Obama, while the rest say the outcome of the primary will help shape their decision.
More than 90 percent of Montana's residents are white and less than 75 percent have completed at least four years of college. The largest minority, American Indians, comprise about 7 percent of the population. Those are similar to demographics Clinton owned in earlier primaries.
But voters here may not fit the mold of the rural, working-class voters that backed Clinton in Appalachian and Rust Belt states. A recent poll showed Obama with a 17-point lead in Montana, although 13 percent of likely Democratic voters were still undecided.
Obama hopes a Montana victory will convince doubters that he can sway rural, white voters and compete against Republican John McCain in the Mountain West, where guns and the economy are key. Some political strategists contend Democrats have an opportunity to move three Rocky Mountain states - Colorado, Montana and New Mexico - into their column in the general election.
"The West shows in great contrast that Obama does appeal to this demographic they claim we don't do well with," said Obama state director Gabe Cohen.
Clinton's campaign has again turned to small towns, a strategy that has worked well in other states. Former President Bill Clinton has made five trips across Montana, stopping in places such as Havre and Lewistown that have never experienced such attention from a high profile political figure.
"If you add all the undecideds to her column, then you've got something approximating a dead tie in Montana," said Kenneth Bickers, a University of Colorado political analyst who has been tracking the race. "And at this point, she can't just tie. She has to beat him."
Clinton supporters are quick to point out that she does much better in primaries than in caucuses. And Clinton could benefit from her appeal to more conservative voters, another demographic she has courted.
Montana has a high percentage of gun owners, although it's hard to say who that would help - or hurt.
Gun owners remember, generally with disdain, the gun control measures of the Clinton administration. But Obama has gun control baggage of his own, which resurfaced after he was heard saying rural voters in small Pennsylvania towns "cling to guns and religion." In recent weeks, he has been trying to convince Western voters that "sensible" gun control won't get in the way of their traditions.
Political scientist Craig Wilson of Montana State University-Billings said he thinks Obama's comments about rural voters could be damaging in Montana.
"Some of that took a little luster off that big charisma," Wilson said.
But Obama may benefit from an early start in the state: He was first to open local campaign offices and was alone running TV ads until Clinton recently launched her first spot in the state.
The primary is open to all voters, and the Democratic race is expected to attract crossover Republicans and independent voters.
"It will probably be the independents who decide which way it goes," Wilson said.
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NOW PUT THIS TOGETHER WITH THIS !
%u201CWhile visiting that mercurial miscreant Libyan strongman Col. Muammar Qaddafi,
Farrakhan and Wright, struck a deal which secured millions of dollars from Libya
to lobby
for the secession of part of the United States. The goal is the formation of a
separate black nation on the North American Continent replete with a 500,000 man
army and nuclear weapons. %u201C
JIHAD !!!
OBAMA is standing in front of the camera himself for 52 seconds explaining how he will disarm the USA.
What we are talking about here IS NOT about politics and the differing
views concerning issues.....this is about the potential literal destruction of
this country by our enemies and our inability to defend ourselves against those
attacks.
This is a very short (52 seconds) video by Barak Obama in his own words
about how he plans to destroy our defense capabilities if elected.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs
Malcolm X%u2019s autobiography seemed to offer something different,%u201D Obama wrote.
%u201CHis repeated acts of self-creation spoke to me; the blunt poetry of his
words,
his unadorned insistence on respect, promised a new and uncompromising order,
martial in its discipline, forged through sheer force of will.%u201D
While working as a community organizer for a group of churches in Chicago,
Obama
was repeatedly asked to join Christian congregations, but begged off.
How can this man represent all Americans ?
Christians by claiming to be one..This is not Christianity !!
The Obamas have practiced Black
Theology from the writing of Marxist, James H. Cone%u2026 for 20 years !!!
this is what his church taught his daughters on Sundays%u2026
%u201CBlack theology refuses to accept a God who is not identified totally with the
goals of the black community. If God is not for us and against white people,
then he is a murderer and we had better kill him. The task of black theology is
to kill gods who do not belong to the black community. Black theology will
accept only the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white
enemy. What we need is the divine love as expressed in black power which is the
power of black people to destroy their oppressors here and now by any means at
their disposal. Unless God is participating in his holy activity, we must reject
his love.%u201D
www.thepetitionsite.com/1/removable-of-father-michael-pfleger
To many Clinton supporters this was a ''weakness'' on Obama''s part.In fact it points out his strength. If you have the upper hand why rattle sabres?
Now that this primary season is ending, we, the Democrats, need to come together. With 35+ million voters who voted Dem. that is an awesome number...with it WE the Americans can take back America from the big buck interests who have hung us out to dry.
Enough- no more hatred in the blogs/posts. Starting tomorrow WE ARE THE DEMOCRATS. CHANGE WE ALL CAN BELIEVE IN-YES "WE" CAN...
inside and out. I consider myself better not to stoop
to someone so low. Goodbye & Good Riddance. Obama will
prevail.
vote, we are voting for him because he makes better
sense, and a better candidate, and he does not speak
with a forked tongue.