Obama Advantage Grew From Long-Term Plan

While Clinton Hinged Strategy On Early Knockout, Obama Sought Delegates All Through Process

(AP)  Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul.

Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away. What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.

Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage - money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.

"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."

Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest.

Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried. Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries.

In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake. Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey.

The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama.

"The whole Clinton campaign thought this would be like previous campaigns, a battle of momentum," said Thomas Mann, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank. "They thought she would be the only one would who could compete in such a momentous event as Super Tuesday."

Instead, Obama won a majority of the 23 Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 and then spent the following two weeks racking up 11 straight victories, building an insurmountable lead among delegates won in primaries and caucuses.

What made it especially hard for Clinton to catch up was that Obama understood and took advantage of a nominating system that emerged from the 1970s and '80s, when the party struggled to find a balance between party insiders and its rank-and-file voters.

Until the 1970s, the nominating process was controlled by party leaders, with ordinary citizens having little say. There were primaries and caucuses, but the delegates were often chosen behind closed doors, sometimes a full year before the national convention. That culminated in a 1968 national convention that didn't reflect the diversity of the party - racially or ideologically.

The fiasco of the 1968 convention in Chicago, where police battled anti-war protesters in the streets, led to calls for a more inclusive process.

One big change was awarding delegates proportionally, meaning you can finish second or third in a primary and still win delegates to the party's national convention. As long candidates get at least 15 percent of the vote, they are eligible for delegates.

The system enables strong second-place candidates to stay competitive and extend the race - as long as they don't run out of campaign money.

"For people who want a campaign to end quickly, proportional allocation is a bad system," Devine said. "For people who want a system that is fair and reflective of the voters, it's a much better system."

Another big change was the introduction of superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can vote for whomever they choose regardless of what happens in the primaries and caucuses.

Superdelegates were first seated at the 1984 convention. Much has been made of them this year because neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination without their support.

A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system.

Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican. Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four.

The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. Obama, who would be the first black candidate nominated by a major political party, has been winning 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote in most primaries, according to exit polls.

"Black districts always have a large number of delegates because they are the highest performers for the Democratic Party," said Elaine Kamarck, a Harvard University professor who is writing a book about the Democratic nominating process.

"Once you had a black candidate you knew that he would be winning large numbers of delegates because of this phenomenon," said Kamarck, who is also a superdelegate supporting Clinton.

In states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton won the statewide vote but Obama won enough delegates to limit her gains. In states Obama carried, like Georgia and Virginia, he maximized the number of delegates he won.

"The Obama campaign was very good at targeting districts in areas where they could do well," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton superdelegate from South Carolina. "They were very conscious and aware of these nuances."

But, Fowler noted, the best strategy in the world would have been useless without the right candidate.

"If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn't have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."

[wiccantexan]

A smart man who surrounded himself with smart, savvy people. Research and careful planning. THIS is the man I want to run our country!

[rowdywicca]

Yeah, the reason was that Obama counted on marginal wins in districts with mass populations and high delegate counts.

That''s why I''ve always argued against using a delegate system, rather than an individual vote system. It does NOT reflect the will of the people.

And yes, Obama is a charismatic LIAR with a great marketing campaign that includes intimidation, sexism, and racism to block in his opponent from being able to criticize him, his lack of credentials, and his clearly naive and dangerous stances on real issues. His campaign has been a debacle of huge proportions supported by the DNC and the media.

This business needs to be taken to convention and straightened out. The DNC knows who has the will of the people, and it''s NOT Obama, yet they have allowed Obama to totally lie about it and try to bully his opponent out of the race.

It''s time to make the DNC pony up to what they''ve done...or just get the hell out of the DNC, and form a party that truly represents democracy.

This behavior has totally turned off voters, and could very well be the downfall of democracy as we know it.

Welcome to the White House, John McCain. I for one can live with a liberal republican and a democratic Congress very comfortably.

However I will never post a vote for a lying intimidation shill called Barak Obama!

[Torilin]

That''''s why I''''ve always argued against using a delegate system, rather than an individual vote system. It does NOT reflect the will of the people.
--------------------------RowdyWicca

The GE doesn''t use the popular vote system either. The only one wanting the popular vote system seems to be the losing team. The GE uses electroal college so popular vote isn''t indicative of who will fare better in November! There was once a candidate who had more popular vote while lost the President spot --fact, look it up.

[trishab4]

CBS: "If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn''t have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."


-Yeah he is good and he looks good too! BO for Barack Obama! isn''t that cute?

[seah5]

Obama has been planning since he was elected Senator.

He hired a full High powered team back then, He made a committee to run.

Obama''s biggest government experience is running for office.

He is still the Greatest Most Serious National Security Threat this nation faces.

[popstom1]

And obama won''t carry electoral college that
and he has run his campaign on race F-K obama

[sgtrds-e4]

This just proves even more why he''s the right person for the job. He''s smart and went into this with a great plan that worked. How nice it''ll be to finally have a president that does that instead of going into something half-as*sed and messing it up even more.

[downsteamjim]

Wicccan Texan: Smart, savy people? Racists, terrorists, shady businessman.

[nanc12]

Welcome to the White House, John McCain. I for one can live with a liberal republican Posted by Rowdywicca

Yes, you would love your John McCain to be in the White House. That''s why you work so tirelessly for him. Unfortunately, he''s not a liberal republican.

He used to be pro-choice, now he wants Roe v Wade abolished
He used to be against the tax cuts for the rich - now he thinks they should be permanent.
He used to say America would not condone torture - now he''s voted that it''s ok.
He SAID he wanted to do away with old-fashioned influence peddling - now his campaign is run by lobbyists.
He went after crazy right wing evangelists to pander to the extreme right.
He wants to continue the war in Iraq and have more of our heroes dying for nothing.
He doesn''t want to help Americans with the mortgage crisis.
He doesn''t want to help Americans get health coverage.
He''s George Bush super-sized.

[downsteamjim]

To understand Obama just look at the means he used to win his first state office. It is essentially the same plan used in Cuba and Iran.

[straitmedia]

Nobama Petition!

If you are a Hillary supporter who is upset and will
stay home or vote McCain over Obama, read and
sign at;


http://tinyurl.com/5tghqr



-

[straitmedia]

Nobama Petition!

If you are a Hillary supporter who is upset and will
stay home or vote McCain over Obama, read and
sign at;


http://tinyurl.com/5tghqr



-

[nanging3]

Have you signed the petition yet ?

This time Pfleger must go !!

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/removable-of-father-michael-pfleger

[nanging3]

Have you signed the petition yet ?

This time Pfleger must go !!

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/removable-of-father-michael-pfleger

[mcvet]

If you are a Hillary supporter who is upset and will
stay home or vote McCain over Obama, read and
sign at;


http://tinyurl.com/5tghqr




-


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Straitmedia at 06:54 PM : May 30, 2008
+ report abuse

IF you are a Hillary supporter and YOU think you can blackmail the Democrat Party just remember the VAST majority of the Party is behind Obama. He ran the smart Champaign and he ran the Winning Champaign. IF Hillary and her Suporters care ANY at all about the political future of the good Senator they will accept the will of the people. EVERYONE know''s it rough loosing and most are willing to give you folks some room but IF you entered the fight and when it does NOT come out to your liking you go over to the other guy that means, if Obama loses, YOU and YOUR CANIDATE are responsible. That Democrats will NEVER forgive!! Sieg Heil Bush

[mcvet]

And obama won''''t carry electoral college that
and he has run his campaign on race F-K obama


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by popstom1 at 06:02 PM : May 30, 2008
+ report abuse

Well tell us why we should vote for McCain. All you swastika huggers have is hate and mud. I want to know what McCain is going to do with an ECONOMY and and ECONOMIC Plan that has been the worst since the great Depression. I want to know what McCain is going to do about Social Security. I want to know what McCain is going to do about Health Care. This GARBAGE you fascist have been handing We the People now for DECADES just ain''t going to cut it this time. So Swastika Breath... dazzle us with the Change from McSame!! SIEG HEIL BUSH

[mcvet]

Wicccan Texan: Smart, savy people? Racists, terrorists, shady businessman.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by downsteamjim at 06:43 PM : May 30, 2008
+ report abuse

Well how about you Swastika Hugger! You are always that trashy kid we knew when we were growing up, find a man down so you jump on the pile. YOU obviously want us all to vote for McSame. What is he going to do different than the WORST in our history. What does he do about this WAR started on a LIE? Is there ANY promise of committment that if we elect him we won''t be here talking about the blunder of all history NEXT ELECTION?? SIEG HEIL BUSH

[downsteamjim]

To McVet: I see you didn''t even try to refute the statement. You with your Nazi remarks would help complete Obama''s circle of hatred.

[glock4me]

Does Obama''s long term plan include 57 states?

[downsteamjim]

To Glock4me: I hope that Obama leaves Kentucky next to Arkansas. I''ve always liked Kentucky and now it''s much closer.

[glock4me]

To Glock4me: I hope that Obama leaves Kentucky next to Arkansas. I''''ve always liked Kentucky and now it''''s much closer.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by downsteamjim at 07:54 PM : May 30, 2008

Yes, I''m sure that the soon-to-be-renamed Kentuk-arkana-stan is a nice place. I hope to see it some day.

Did Obama''s recent physical include a scan for brain tumors? That might explain the 57 state thing.

[omega39-2009]

Hillary used the I''m entitled method rather than smartly doing her homework. Now she and her supporters use petty threats to try and blackmail the DNC. Go to McSames camp, quit whining and threatening to do it, just do it and mooooooove on.

[glock4me]

Hillary used the I''''m entitled method rather than smartly doing her homework. Now she and her supporters use petty threats to try and blackmail the DNC. Go to McSames camp, quit whining and threatening to do it, just do it and mooooooove on.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by omega39 at 08:00 PM : May 30, 2008


Obama should worry that Hillary (and a significant amount of her supporters) will back McCain. With the election expected to be tight, neither side can afford to give away much support.

[omega39-2009]

Obama should worry that Hillary (and a significant amount of her supporters) will back McCain. With the election expected to be tight, neither side can afford to give away much support.

Posted by Glock4me

The vile anti-Obama posts of Hillary''s supporters suggests that it is going to happen anyway. If they want to cut off their noses to spite their face, they should just do it rather than threatening to ad nauseam.

[glock4me]

The vile anti-Obama posts of Hillary''''s supporters suggests that it is going to happen anyway. If they want to cut off their noses to spite their face, they should just do it rather than threatening to ad nauseam.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by omega39 at 08:31 PM : May 30, 2008


Not that I want to give Obama advice (I do not intend to vote for him), but he''d better learn to kiss Hillary''s a$$ because if that scenario pans out, Obama is sure to lose big.

[omega39-2009]

Not that I want to give Obama advice (I do not intend to vote for him), but he''''d better learn to kiss Hillary''''s a$$ because if that scenario pans out, Obama is sure to lose big.

Posted by Glock4me

True, but so will the Clintons. I read a poll today that stated 50% of New Yorkers want her to drop out, that''s likely 50% that won''t be voting for her when she runs for her Senate seat again. She may cost Obama the election but she will finish her own political career in the process.

[glock4me]

True, but so will the Clintons. I read a poll today that stated 50% of New Yorkers want her to drop out, that''''s likely 50% that won''''t be voting for her when she runs for her Senate seat again. She may cost Obama the election but she will finish her own political career in the process.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by omega39 at 08:39 PM : May 30, 2008


Yes, good points, I could see that happening. Seems kind of like a suicide pact or something... or maybe a murder-suicide (Obama-Hillary, respectively).

Say what you will about the dems, but they are not boring this year.

[smirk5]

sincityq,
The media can''t help it. They''ve been under a lot of sniper fire.

[smirk5]

McCain has only been to New Orleans once since Katrina.
Obama has been there 5 times. Will John McCain come to New Orleans with Obama so Obama can teach him about the aftermath of this disaster?

[sjc_1]

If after all the primaries, Michigan and Florida they are within 100 delegates, the super delegates have to look at the fact that 60 of those 100 are in caucus states and the rest and more are in small red states that will go Republican in the fall. Since the electoral college is "winner take all" and not proportional like some primaries, the super delegates may conclude that Hillary is the stronger candidate and should be the nominee. This is what super delegates were created for, to nominate the candidate most likely to win in the general election.

[smirk5]

sjc_1,

Barack Obama: 2008 Democratic Nominee for President

Hillary''s chances have been obliterated by reality.

[smirk5]

At this point, Hillary is finished in her run. Even if she hit the lottery and got the nomination, she''s be a sure loser in the general. The Republicans would tee off on that Bosnia story and Clinton would be a national punch line by November.

[klyphan1]

I AM HAPPY TO SEE WHITE AMERICANS ARE LOSERS! DID I SAY AMERICANS ARE NOT READY FOR BLACK PRESIDENT? WOMEN IS THE BEST.
Guess what I meant?
Good LUCK!

[smirk5]

"But that''s not what John McCain''s been talking about the last few days. He''s been proposing a joint trip to Iraq that''s nothing more than a political stunt. He''s even been using it to raise a few dollars for his campaign. But it seems like Senator McCain''s a lot more interested in my travel plans than the facts, because yesterday - in his continued effort to put the best light on a failed policy - he stood up in Wisconsin and said, "We have drawn down to pre-surge levels" in Iraq.

"That''s not true, and anyone running for Commander-in-Chief should know better. As the saying goes, you''re entitled to your own view, but not your own facts. We''ve got around 150,000 troops in Iraq - 20,000 more than we had before the surge. We have plans to get down to around 140,000 later this summer - that''s still more troops than we had in Iraq before the surge. And today, Senator McCain refused to correct his mistake. Just like George Bush, when he was presented with the truth, he just dug in and refused to admit his mistake. His campaign said it amounts to "nitpicking."
Barack Obama 5-30-2008

[klyphan1]

I AM HAPPY TO SEE WHITE AMERICANS ARE LOSERS! DID I SAY AMERICANS ARE NOT READY FOR BLACK PRESIDENT? WOMEN IS THE BEST.
Guess what I meant?
Good LUCK!

[smirk5]

Hi. I''m John McCain. I don''t know the difference between Sunni and Shia. I don''t know the current or future planned force level in Iraq. Vote for me. I''m an expert on Iraq.

[smirk5]

If you''ve been to Iraq as much as John McCain has, facts don''t matter anymore. Vote for John McCain. With him, facts don''t matter.

[smirk5]

John McCain needs to be tested for dementia. He hasn''t really proved he doesn''t have it and he''s forgetting nearly every fact he mentions concerning Iraq at this point.

[downsteamjim]

Smirk5: You are right. If McCain made half as many gaffes as Obama, he''d have been committed.

[smirk5]

The campaign has just started and McCain has become a never-ending gaffe machine. With the small amount of actual Iraq knowledge that McCain seems to have, he''s going to have a problem debating Obama over it. Facts will matter this year and McCain is showing everyone that he just doesn''t know them.

[smirk5]

downsteamjim,
I bet you thought there were WMDs.
I bet you thought there were just a few deadenders.
I bet you thought we broke the back of the insurgency.
I bet you thought Iraq would make America stronger rather than just strengthening Al-Qaeda and Iran.
I bet you thought the insurgency was in it''s last throes.
I bet you voted for Bush twice.
I could have said that I bet you''re an idiot, but I was bored and wanted to type.

[downsteamjim]

Smirk: I see your attitude fits in well with Obama''s spiritual advisors. But just for fun can you name the 59 or 60 states in the U.S. of Obama.

[smirk5]

I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.

I am not opposed to all wars. I%u2019m opposed to dumb wars.
Barack Obama Oct. 2, 2002

"But the point is that, one, we will win this conflict. We will win it easily." [MSNBC, 1/22/03]
John McCain

[downsteamjim]

Smirk: Did you ever read about how Obama won his first statewide election? It is the same model Iran uses.

[smirk5]

downsteamjim,
Everyone makes gaffes. Did Obama defend his gaffe? No. Did McCain defend his false statement that we had drawn down to pre-surge levels? Yes he did. He defended a false statement. That makes it not a gaffe. That means that McCain actually thinks we''ve drawn down to pre-surge levels. And, he said that Iran was training Al-Qaeda operatives in Iran and sending them to Iraq. He said this 3 times straight in 2 days. That''s not a gaffe either. For nearly two days, McCain must have actually believed that Iran was training it''s sworn enemy. Anyone with sense knows Obama knows how many states we have. But, it''s not clear that McCain knows the difference between Shia and Sunni and what our actual force levels are. You''re comparing apples and oranges. Very Con of you.
You guys compared Iraq to Al-Qaeda too before you started the Iraq quagmire.

[smirk5]

John McCain quotes pre-Iraq War and during Iraq War:

"Because I know that as successful as I believe we will be, and I believe that the success will be fairly easy, we will still lose some American young men or women." [CNN, 9/24/02]

"We%u2019re not going to get into house-to-house fighting in Baghdad. We may have to take out buildings, but we%u2019re not going to have a bloodletting of trading American bodies for Iraqi bodies." [CNN, 9/29/02]

"But the point is that, one, we will win this conflict. We will win it easily." [MSNBC, 1/22/03]

"But I believe, Katie, that the Iraqi people will greet us as liberators." [NBC, 3/20/03]

"It%u2019s clear that the end is very much in sight." [ABC, 4/9/03]

"There%u2019s not a history of clashes that are violent between Sunnis and Shiahs. So I think they can probably get along." [MSNBC, 4/23/03]

"This is a mission accomplished. They know how much influence Saddam Hussein had on the Iraqi people, how much more difficult it made to get their cooperation." [This Week, ABC, 12/14/03]

"I%u2019m confident we%u2019re on the right course." [ABC News, 3/7/04]

[smirk5]

John McCain thought Iraq would be a cakewalk. That''s the kind of judgment John McCain has.

[downsteamjim]

Smirk: Superman could change the course of mighty rivers, but only Obama can move states. He claimed Kentucky was closer to Arkansas than to Illinois. Pretty sad that he doesn''t know which states border his home state.

[smirk5]

I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.

I am not opposed to all wars. I%u2019m opposed to dumb wars.
Barack Obama Oct. 2, 2002

"But the point is that, one, we will win this conflict. We will win it easily." [MSNBC, 1/22/03]
John McCain

downsteamjim thinks McCain was closer to the mark on his Iraq prediction evidently.

[smirk5]

downsteamjim,

Obama is clearly smarter than John McCain is. Go ahead and argue that he isn''t. It''ll just makes you look like a fool and I won''t have to type anything.