Obama Pivots Toward Fall Challenges

Analysis: Electoral Math Is In Democrat's Favor To Get Nomination, But The Formula Is About To Change

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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Two candidates, two states and two different Democratic parties were on display in Kentucky and Oregon, the latest installment of the never-ending primary. As expected, the two brought in a split decision, with Hillary Clinton winning with a West Virginia-like margin in Kentucky and Barack Obama handily carrying Oregon.

To the extent the final outcome is in doubt, the race has now come down to a dispute about mathematical computations. But the numbers aren’t adding up for Hillary Clinton, and barring a totally unexpected and dramatic reversal of fortune, she’s not going to persuade those superdelegates that two plus two somehow equals five.

With just three more contests to go on the calendar, Obama has now wrapped up the majority of the pledged delegates at stake, according to the CBS News delegate count and is less than 80 total delegates away from securing the 2,026 total delegates needed to claim the nomination.

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Kentucky Results
Oregon Results

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Clinton, who seems to turn into a better candidate the longer her odds become, showed no inclination to even acknowledge the situation. She continues to argue that Obama’s math will change with the eventual inclusion of the disputed delegates in Florida and Michigan and points to her calculations to claim the popular vote lead.

Wherever the mathematical calculations fall in the end, Obama made it more crystal clear than ever that his focus is now on running a general election campaign. Appearing in Iowa rather than the site of his Oregon win, Obama wanted to symbolically wrap up this primary campaign where it began on January 3rd. As he and his campaign have done in recent weeks, Obama was careful to praise Clinton and avoid any hint that he wants her to exit.

But Obama spent his time laying out the driving theme of his launch into the fall campaign - change. “Change is coming to America,” Obama proclaimed, on issues from health care to taxes, education and the war in Iraq. “It is more of the same versus change,” is how he defined the choice between himself and John McCain. “It is the past versus the future. It has been asked and answered by generations before us, and now it is our turn to choose.”

Change may be what Obama wants to talk about but as the results in Kentucky made clear is there is no change in what is a clear problem for the front-runner. Just as in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio before, voters in the Bluegrass state delivered a message that must worry even the most enthusiastic Obama supporters.

Just a glance at who voted for Clinton in Kentucky and in what numbers: 72 percent of white voters; 70 percent of those with no college degree; 67 percent of those with incomes of $50,000 or less; 67 percent-plus of those voters over age 50; 240,000 more total votes. In a 35-point win, those margins are going to be large. In fact, Clinton won the majority of votes in nearly every single category measured by the exit polls. But it’s that coalition of women, whites, lower-educated, lower-income and older voters that have clung to Clinton even as the pundits declare her campaign over.

It’s a coalition she did best with in Oregon as well, but not nearly in the numbers she’s shown in the Rust Belt states she’s dominated. More telling - and chilling for those Democrats plotting general election stories - is what has become evident in those states surrounding the Ohio River Valley.

In Kentucky, 77 percent of those voting for Clinton said they would be dissatisfied with Obama as the Democratic nominee while just 21 percent said they would be satisfied. Forty-nine percent of Obama voters in Kentucky said they would be dissatisfied with Clinton as the nominee while 47 percent would be satisfied.

More worrisome, just 33 percent of Clinton voters in the Bluegrass State said they would back Obama in a general election. Forty two percent said they would support Republican John McCain and 23 percent said they would not vote in the fall. Seventy one percent of Obama voters said they would back Clinton in the fall should she win the nomination. Those are striking number and larger than were reported in West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio but the trend has held throughout a crucial region of the country for November’s vote.

In Oregon, however, a majority of voters supporting both candidates said they would be satisfied with the other as the nominee. Fifty eight percent of Clinton voters there would be satisfied with Obama and 55 percent of his voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton. Sixty eight percent of Clinton’s supporters in Oregon said they would support Obama in the fall while 80 percent of his voters said they would back Clinton as the nominee.

Questions about those two very different results - whether a matter of race, economic outlook or fond memories of the Clinton presidency - will continue to dog Obama well into the fall campaign regardless of how unified the party becomes. Kentucky and West Virginia may not be crucial to Democrats in the general election but Pennsylvania and Ohio are.

The math may all be on Obama’s side in his quest for the Democratic nomination which is just within his grasp. But the equations will become much more complicated for the general election.

[sjc_1]

You have to look at elections versus caucuses and red states versus blue states. Blue state primary elections indicate where the voters will be in November.

[kansas1946]

The math may all be on Obama%u2019s side in his quest for the Democratic nomination which is just within his grasp. But the equations will become much more complicated for the general election.

******************
I really reject the notion that whites will not vote for Obama. Kansas is very white and Obama carried 75pct of the primary vote. I agree it will be interesting to see if folks want four more years of Bush under McCain, or if they decide a black president might not be so bad. I don''t believe a lot of those polled that say they will vote for McCain if Hillary isn''t the nominee.

[demtotheend]

I know some Democratic strategists in Washington, and I can tell you that Kentucky was never on anyone''s radar screen as a presidential battleground state. Clinton''s attempt to trump it as a swing state is laughable. Oregon, on the other hand, is a battleground state every time. Gore won it by 4/10 of a percentage point in 2000, and Kerry only won it by a few points.

[obama8years]

I have four important questions for Bush, McCain and the GOP!

1. Is Iran stronger or weaker since Bush%u2019s invasions of Iraq?
a. If Obama gets Elected Iran will not only take over the middle east but you will be paying 20.00 a Gallon for Gas.

2. Has Osama bin Laden been killed or captured since Bush%u2019s invasion of Iraq?
a. Who really cares. Its Alquada and Extremist Muslims you better worry about.

3. Are we paying less for gas now or before Bush%u2019s invasion of Iraq?
a. Gas Prices were Fine until the Democrats took over congress. With China and India sucking up alot of the oil, its a matter of supply and demand. If you want to pay lower gas prices..get your liberal friends to join in drilling in America....and fuuhk the Carboui Porcupine, I need to get to work.

4. Is our economy better of now or before Bush%u2019s invasion of Iraq?

A. Economy was Better and running strong until 2006, Until the Democrats took over congress.

[obama8years]

Obamas First Challenge: "HOW DO I EXPLAIN 20 YEARS IN REV WRIGHTS CHURCH."

Rev Wright:
"God daamn America"
"Americas Chickens coming home to roost"
"White Rich Men"
"Hillary never been called a ngr."
"Bill Did Hillary...(making *** moves in church)
"USAKKK"

Also Rev Wright and his Buddy Farakahn met with Kadafi.

Rev Wrights Teaches Black THeology derived from Marxism.

most important of all.....

OBAMA SAT IN THE CHURCH FOR 20 YEARS listening and agreeing to the racist and Marxist Black Theology.

I think when 1/3 democrats are polled and would rather vote for John Mccain than Obama, the Rev Wright Issue is a Big Deal.

True, Obama mentioned how Wright taught him to be kind unto others. But according to Wright%u2019s interpretation, that %u201Ckindness%u201D has more to do with fighting %u201Cwhite oppression%u201D than urging nonviolence and brotherly love among all races. Wright%u2019s church even praised Hamas in the past, and has always touted it as an Islamic charity organization showing such social kindness despite its charter calling for unyielding murder and expulsion of Jews in the Middle East.

[metroduck75]

It''''s now very Clear the "O" cult is taking Hillary''''''''s Voters for granted.

Satanic Obama is asking MI and FL to go to H-E-L-L.

Yup, folks.

He is telling the down-to-earth Middle class American families and Latinos and women that their Votes are NOT as important as the Elite & Blacks Votes.

We will fight on the FLOOR of Convention.

COUNT every VOTE now!!!!!!!!!!!

[darrren12000]

Always race and education baiting. First of all, Clinton got 56percent of college grads, and 57 of postgraduate voters in KY. When you add up these numbers throughout the primaries, they almost evenly split college-educated voters, contrary to popular discourse. Also, gallup released a survey today showing that the main trait for democrats who say they wont vote for obama is GENDER. White women defect. Of course, people who want to blame everything on racism, do not point that out. pity.

[rudentesty2]

Posted by wp4088 at 10:49 AM : May 22, 2008

I don''t know why,but I was touched by your post.Maybe it was the sincerity of it,upset,but not really knowing who to ask for help,and not really knowing who to blame.I suggest you write a letter.You will find nothing here but ostracization and criticism.I sincerely hope that your fears are allayed,and your needs are met.

[francise223]

continued....
That a just government derives its power from the consent of the governed, that each of us should have an equal voice in determining the destiny of our nation." On the Florida disenfranchisement of 2000-by corporate purging of public voter lists, Wall Street lawyers'' disruption of recounts, and Supreme Court overrule: "We believe that the outcome of our elections should be determined by the will of the people, nothing more, nothing less. We believe the popular vote is the truest expression of your will. Back in 2000 right here in Florida you learned what happens when you''re votes aren''t counted and a candidate with fewer votes is determined the winner. "I believe the Democratic Party must count these votes. They should count them exactly as they were cast. "Some say that counting Florida and Michigan would be changing the rules. I say that not counting Michigan and Florida is changing a central governing rule of this country--that whenever we can understand the clear intent of the voters, their votes should be counted."

[francise223]

Hillary placed Floridians'' Constitutional right to have their votes fully counted the same way as in ending slavery and winning the right to vote for Black Americans and women. Clinton spoke to senior citizens whom lost their votes in the 2000 Florida election. She is continuing until the Convention, if necessary, to win this fight for Florida and Michigan, calling on Sen. Barack Obama to join it. On slavery or the right to vote: "In each successive generation, this nation was blessed by men and women who refused to accept their assigned place as second-class citizens. The abolitionists and all who fought to end slavery, and ensure that freedom came with the full right of citizenship." On the Constitutional principle: "We have certain core rights that no government can abridge and these rights are rooted in, and sustained by the principle that our Founders set forth in the Declaration of Independence.

[francise223]

Hillary is electable because she has won big swing states such as OH, PA, WVA, MI, FLA, etc. by huge margins and gets the traditional democratic core majority groups of women, the working class, seniors, Hispanics, Jews, Asians, etc. She even won the majority of the educated/wealthy and youth votes in West Virginia and Kentucky in a landslide cutting into Obama%u2019s favored groups!

Obama is NOT electable. Wonder if the mainstream media is covering up Obama''s possible closeted homosexual relationship with Pastor Wright until the general election because the media already knew about Pastor Wright''s inflammatory and racist remarks since January 07 and didn''t expose it until April 08? And wonder if that is the reason why Obama stayed with his Pastor Wrightor for 20 years?

Yesterday, Nancy Pelosi say a Hillary/Obama ticket is a winning ticket but she will not let it happen. As Democrat Speaker of the House, the question is why? Has the DNC and Pelosi been paid off by financiers George Soros, Felix Rohayan, George Schultz (millionaires and billionaires) to give GOP the White House this fall????

[libh8er]

If this clown is the dem''s choice, even the LAMEstream media isn''t going to be able to cover for him. He''s THAT flawed.

[whitepicks2]

Jim Webb said, ''The politics of the Karl Rove era were designed to distract and divide the very people who would ordinarily be rebelling against the deterioration of their way of life. Working Americans have been repeatedly seduced at the polls by emotional issues such as the predictable mantra of ''God, guns, ***, abortion and the flag'' while their way of life shifted ineluctably beneath their feet.'' These tactics are all the Repugs have. We will say ''not this time!''

[rpicone]

Things seem to be a whole lot less clear in the general election race than the article presents... While exit polling suggests Clinton would have an advantage in a general election, national telephone polls would give him the advantage in a general election over McCain.

For example, the most recently taken poll I am aware of, by Reuters/Zogby has Obama 10 points ahead of McCain and Clinton only 1 point ahead in their respective matchups...
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1511

The math in November is currently anything but clear.

[truthalways]

obama is contradiction himself..He ask the GOP to leave his wife alone..and yet his wife campaigns for him...Michelle wrote a letter to defend partial abortion ro raise money for her husband campaign in 2004...she says it''s a life medecine...excuse me Michelle...it is not a life medicine to jam scissors into the back of a poor baby''s head for irreponsible and selfish purposes...
I''d like to ask Michelle how in the world she could in good conscience raise money from fear-mongering about this barbaric abortion procedure,"

Stanek pointed out that Barack Obama recently issued a warning to "lay off my wife" after she came under fire about an unrelated issue.

Stanek said the request amounted to "Free speech for me but not for thee" -- something she called "a typical left-wing position."

"So it''s fine to kill late-term babies, but we can''t risk hurting Michelle''s feelings about it," she added.

* this article is taken from http://www.lifenews.com/nat3935.html

please go to the above link to read the full story..


WE DO NOT WANT A PRESIDENT AGAINST FREEDOME OF SPEECH AND WHO WNATS TO SHU US UP..GO HILLARY!!!

[fleura-2009]

Hillary Clinton is a nice lady but she caused more divisions with the Democrats and the Voters. It''s time for someone to knock some sense into her and writ her off the DNC all together!!!

Too much damage and too much audacity and less than voice to stand on her side of the platform, she is the last person anybody would want on their team.

Enough is Enough...Go home Hillary!!!

[fleura-2009]

Such a prestige to be a Democrat and such a pride to stand for Barack Obama!!!

What a theme change in our politics!!!

[megamanx1-2009]

Bet you haven''''t a clue what she means...

And she''''s dead right!


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Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 07:49 PM : May 21, 2008

SHE SURE PROVED MY POINT TO A "T". THANKS FOR THAT.

[megamanx1-2009]

The Kentucky and West Virginia and some of Ohio and PA phenomenon are an example of Americans that are most gullible to media propaganda.

I''''m not sure if there is much hope for these people to grasp reality and the fact that voters need to actually look for candidates that will benefit them.

WV and KY are prime examples that stupid people follow pundits instead of voting for candidates that will make their lives better. Many trailer homes in these states had Bush - Cheney signs out front? And they wonder why they are poor. Maybe because they are gullible.


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Posted by cbsblogger at 07:40 PM : May 21, 2008

EXACTLY. BECAUSE BUSH AND CHENEY ARE SURE AS HE11 NOT LOOKING OUT FOR THEIR POOR ASSSES. AND NEITHER WILL MCSAME I PROMISE YOU THAT. AND THESE ARE THE SAME IDIOTS THAT CLINTON IS TRYING TO PANDER TO...WAKE UP HICKS OR KEEP CLEANING OUT THE FECES TRAP IN YOUR TRAILER HOME.....

[rowdytexan2]

SEE WHAT I MEAN?




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Posted by MegamanX1 at 07:37 PM : May 21, 2008

Bet you haven''t a clue what she means...

And she''s dead right!