May 21, 2008
Obama Pivots Toward Fall Challenges
Analysis: Electoral Math Is In Democrat's Favor To Get Nomination, But The Formula Is About To Change
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Obama Returns To Iowa
"CBS News RAW": Barack Obama returned to Iowa, the site of his first, highly-publicized primary win, to speak to supporters about the importance of party unity in the days ahead.
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Hillary Wins The Bluegrass State
"CBS News RAW": After clinching a substantial victory in Kentucky, Hillary Clinton spoke to supporters in Louisville saying she is ahead of Obama in terms of the popular vote.
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Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks at a rally in downtown Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday, May 20, 2008. (AP)
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Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., acknowledges supporters during her Kentucky primary election night rally Tuesday, May 20, 2008 in Louisville, Ky. (AP)
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The latest list of primary and caucus dates as states continue jockeying for position.
Two candidates, two states and two different Democratic parties were on display in Kentucky and Oregon, the latest installment of the never-ending primary. As expected, the two brought in a split decision, with Hillary Clinton winning with a West Virginia-like margin in Kentucky and Barack Obama handily carrying Oregon.
To the extent the final outcome is in doubt, the race has now come down to a dispute about mathematical computations. But the numbers aren’t adding up for Hillary Clinton, and barring a totally unexpected and dramatic reversal of fortune, she’s not going to persuade those superdelegates that two plus two somehow equals five.
With just three more contests to go on the calendar, Obama has now wrapped up the majority of the pledged delegates at stake, according to the CBS News delegate count and is less than 80 total delegates away from securing the 2,026 total delegates needed to claim the nomination.
Clinton, who seems to turn into a better candidate the longer her odds become, showed no inclination to even acknowledge the situation. She continues to argue that Obama’s math will change with the eventual inclusion of the disputed delegates in Florida and Michigan and points to her calculations to claim the popular vote lead.Kentucky Results
Oregon Results
Wherever the mathematical calculations fall in the end, Obama made it more crystal clear than ever that his focus is now on running a general election campaign. Appearing in Iowa rather than the site of his Oregon win, Obama wanted to symbolically wrap up this primary campaign where it began on January 3rd. As he and his campaign have done in recent weeks, Obama was careful to praise Clinton and avoid any hint that he wants her to exit.
But Obama spent his time laying out the driving theme of his launch into the fall campaign - change. “Change is coming to America,” Obama proclaimed, on issues from health care to taxes, education and the war in Iraq. “It is more of the same versus change,” is how he defined the choice between himself and John McCain. “It is the past versus the future. It has been asked and answered by generations before us, and now it is our turn to choose.”
Change may be what Obama wants to talk about but as the results in Kentucky made clear is there is no change in what is a clear problem for the front-runner. Just as in Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio before, voters in the Bluegrass state delivered a message that must worry even the most enthusiastic Obama supporters.
Just a glance at who voted for Clinton in Kentucky and in what numbers: 72 percent of white voters; 70 percent of those with no college degree; 67 percent of those with incomes of $50,000 or less; 67 percent-plus of those voters over age 50; 240,000 more total votes. In a 35-point win, those margins are going to be large. In fact, Clinton won the majority of votes in nearly every single category measured by the exit polls. But it’s that coalition of women, whites, lower-educated, lower-income and older voters that have clung to Clinton even as the pundits declare her campaign over.
It’s a coalition she did best with in Oregon as well, but not nearly in the numbers she’s shown in the Rust Belt states she’s dominated. More telling - and chilling for those Democrats plotting general election stories - is what has become evident in those states surrounding the Ohio River Valley.
In Kentucky, 77 percent of those voting for Clinton said they would be dissatisfied with Obama as the Democratic nominee while just 21 percent said they would be satisfied. Forty-nine percent of Obama voters in Kentucky said they would be dissatisfied with Clinton as the nominee while 47 percent would be satisfied.
More worrisome, just 33 percent of Clinton voters in the Bluegrass State said they would back Obama in a general election. Forty two percent said they would support Republican John McCain and 23 percent said they would not vote in the fall. Seventy one percent of Obama voters said they would back Clinton in the fall should she win the nomination. Those are striking number and larger than were reported in West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Ohio but the trend has held throughout a crucial region of the country for November’s vote.
In Oregon, however, a majority of voters supporting both candidates said they would be satisfied with the other as the nominee. Fifty eight percent of Clinton voters there would be satisfied with Obama and 55 percent of his voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton. Sixty eight percent of Clinton’s supporters in Oregon said they would support Obama in the fall while 80 percent of his voters said they would back Clinton as the nominee.
Questions about those two very different results - whether a matter of race, economic outlook or fond memories of the Clinton presidency - will continue to dog Obama well into the fall campaign regardless of how unified the party becomes. Kentucky and West Virginia may not be crucial to Democrats in the general election but Pennsylvania and Ohio are.
The math may all be on Obama’s side in his quest for the Democratic nomination which is just within his grasp. But the equations will become much more complicated for the general election.
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Kentucky Results



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See all 120 CommentsThe Boston Globe reports that prominent liberal feminists like Kim Gandy and Martha Burk are "vexed" by Senator Clinton''s (D-New York) failure to overtake rival Senator Barack Obama (D-Illinois), and that the former first lady is "threatened with losing the nomination to a man whose charismatic style and powerful rhetoric are trumping her decades of experience."
Hillary - " Obama cannot, must not & will not, win the presidency. It''s just not fair. This is suppose to be about me The Queen Bee. I don''t get mad, I get even. My feminazi friends will organize a vast left wing conspiracy against Obama. Our days of being less confrontational & devisive are over. CACKLE CACKLE CACKLE
So much of life is about timing and luck . . . hopefully she won''t try to make we Democrats ''pay'' for not ''seeing'' that the Presidency was ''supposed to be'' hers :(
What''s with that . . . admirable or dysfunctional? After Gore ''lost'' he went on to raise awareness of the environmental crisis and won all that international acclaim (Nobel, Academy, Grammy, etc). Does Hillary have a larger purpose - is continuing to pursue the presidency (like in 2012, 2016) a larger purpose? If so are there other ways she could accomplish that purpose?
Jeez, and Sen. Clinton told me that sexism was the big divide in this campaign. Seems racism is not only at least equally rampant, but has been propagated by her campaign, and that any real sexism that exists is, again at least equally, on the side of the feminists who vote for her because she is a woman and not the best candidate for our next president.
THE DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS IS A FINE EXAMPLE OF PEOPLE WHO MAKE PROMISES THEY CAN''T KEEP.
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Posted by Avembe at 03:40 AM : May 21, 2008
-Great question! If this is the model she intends on this Nation''s finances, I''d rather say, no thanks. If that is experience, well, no thanks we prefer inexperience with leadership. Hillary you''re just another sheep in the Big Interests'' hurd of public figures.
Take Obama''s reaction to the Wright episode....took him several weeks to separate his views from the reverend. A President needs quick resolve and this will come back to haunt him in the general campaign......that is, unless a new discovery is thrust into the media......which it most likely will be at a time when he won''t have time to recover.
Then, lo and behold, we will have MORE OF THE SAME, but with an OLD, HOT TEMPERED, FLIP FLOPPER ON ISSUES, and HUNDRED YEAR WAR MAN as the commander-in-chief.
The changes that are coming will be a direct result of the last eight years and the IRAQ/AFGHANISTAN WARS, and the INVASION across of our southern border of ILLEGALS. (The Senate votes today on SA4786, attached to Iraq Supplemental Spending, which grants 1.35 million ag workers and their families a visa for up to five years. The total number would be about 3 million.) BACKDOOR AMNESTY by Democrats!
Hillary..KY & OR....695,615
Obama....KY & OR....540,909
..If Obama wins the nomination...it''''s fuzzy math
..Bush beats Gore....fuzzy math.
Wake up America the POWERS to BE pick the President..
not the peoples vote..there is no democracy.. it''''s like a house hold with teenagers... ruled by parent dictatorship!
The more we listen to her, the more we think of Jeremy Wright and wonder how Obama could have spent 20 years with the man, called him his intellectual mentor and yet not have picked up on, let alone agreed with, some of the most vile hatred masquerading as theology that you are likely to find in America today.
Michelle Obama is a window to all of that, so "chivalry" requires that we ignore her (except of course if you are a mesmerized Obamiac, in which case listen and send in more donations).
That is an inaccurate and unfair portrayal of Hillary Clinton''s position. She has said repeatedly that she will support the party''s nominee. She has every right to run for the office, until she decides to get out of the race. When she does, she will support Obama! Your posting is full of hatred that is not deserved!
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Posted by jack3213 at 08:54 AM : May 21, 2008
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Really? Is that why the Fascist Senator has asked the Klan Member running that ad in Tenn to pull it? ROFLMAO You freaks just keep it up... watch the Republican Party just fade into history... Fine with me! Sieg Heil Bush
THE DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS IS A FINE EXAMPLE OF PEOPLE WHO MAKE PROMISES THEY CAN''''T KEEP.
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Posted by jack3213 at 07:44 AM : May 21, 2008
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NO the Congress is proof that ONE party, the Republican Party completely IGNORES the wishes of WE the PEOPLE. We went to the Polls in 06. We sent a CLEAR message to the Republican''s by taking as many of them out of power as possible. That message? The War based on LIES should be ended. THEY, the Republican Party and it''s Fuhrer choose to ignore the people. There is a PRICE to be paid for that.... It''s already being felt by the NAZI''s (NEOCON''s). Now let the fuhrer know you are spreading the Nazi Spin here!! Sieg Heil Bush
If this Nation has a chance to better itself, it had better wake up to fact that No Leftist will solve America''''s problems.
CONGRESS IS DEMOCRATIC, YOU A--.
OBAMA GETS 92% OF BLACK VOTE. PROBABLY RACIST VOTERS.
HILLARY IS NOT DONE.
SUPER-DELEGATES CAN CHANGE THEIR MIND AND ENDORSEMENT.
IT''''S GOING TO THE CONVENTION TO BE DECIDED.
HILLARY IS THE ONLY CHOICE FOR A CHANGED AMERICA.
OBAMA WOULDN''''T GET THE WHITE VOTE V.S. MCCAIN.
MAJORITY OF HILLARY SUPPORTERS WILL NOT SUPPORT OBAMA.
HILLARY WILL WIN THE POPULAR VOTE IN THE END.
HILLARY WINS FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN.
HILLARY IS THE REALISTIC CHOICE FOR PRESIDENT.
HILLARY HAS WON MORE STATES SINCE FEBRUARY.
HILLARY HAS MORE VOTES SINCE FEBRUARY.
HILLARY IS THE RIGHT CHOICE FOR AMERICA.
"sleepyric good try- no sell- Mccain is not a fraud- and anything you say about the man is simply disrespectful.
Posted by jack3213 at 10:29 AM : May 21, 2008"
Listen to McCain''s friends then ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eTHPMtNyn_8
I want free health insurance: What! you''''re going to raise my taxes?
I want to increase tax on big business: What! Good and Services are going up?
I want unions in control of workers: What! All the jobs are moving overseas?
I want to enforce stronger EPA regulations. What! I can''''t drive my SUV anymore?
I want my government to protect me and make me safe. What! The government is actually spying on the terrorist and listening in on cell phones!
and the list goes on.......
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CazKanlYDg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBiti-ZbeO0
and another:
http://www.youtube.com/user/VETSAGAINSTMCCAIN
these people aren''t actors..
decide for yourself...
The DNC is counting on Hillary%u2019s followers to go to Obama but they will not! They will not follow this man who is deceiving the country. The feelings are strong and growing stronger by the day. Barack Hussein Obama will fail in the November Election and it is a sure thing.
Where are all the honest people that really care about the USA? They are not in politics because they can''t stand the tactics used to repay supporters and lobbyist. So we are stuck with this pitiful selection.
hey sweetie again dont pick out the drapes...
I don''t want health insurance: What! you''''''''re giving my taxes to Iraq?
I don''t want to increase tax on big business: What! Exxon and Mobil posted record gains again?
I don''t want unions: What! All the jobs are moving overseas?
I don''t believe in Global Warming. What! The earth isn''t flat?
I don''t expect my government to protect me or my country. What! The government is actually spying on Americans and listening in on cell phones!
and the list goes on.......
The military backs Hillary, ask why they believe in her?She tells you her plans and how she will accomplish them. All obama says is what he will do, not how he will do it. I question the Dem. party becoming communistic. You have to put your first allegiance to america & not a party.Come Nov. I will vote in spite of hard times, for someone who loves america that won''t be Obama.
OBAMA/POWELL 08!
THIS IS THE BEST NEWS EVER!
CHECKOUT BET.COM
These are the people who are voting for Obama. They don''t sound that educated to me and they sound as though they are not Americans at all. Obama has close relationships with people who clearly have said and shown they hate America. So why is he running for office. I suggest it is because of the power our America can give to him and for no other reason. My first allegiance is to America and not to a party. Even in poverty I would rather choose someone who loves America than someone like Obama. You all need to choose where your allegiance lies? Do you care about your party more than your nation? Or will do what is right rather than say "well, my party wants this so..." your first allegiance must be to your country and that country deserves to have someone running it who truly loves America. Someone who truly loves america would not hang out with people who truly show their hatred by word and deed for America.
Posted by SgtRDS-E4 at 12:23 PM : May 21, 2008
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NOT! The Murdoch-owned media is dominating the direction of media coverage in all major markets and on cable, as the far-right propaganda machine gobbles up more and more media outlets. Second: the MSM has been cowed and castrated into supporting the far-right agenda. No mention of the McCain scandals and his whacked-out far-right supporters will show up. The fix is in and the media- all of it- will make sure McCain is elected.
Don''t you see, Bill - It''s not fair, I''m the Queen Bee & It''s suppose to be all about me. THIS is a VAST LEFT WING CONSPIRACY. I''m just not warming up. I''m in it to win it. I flatly dare you to support him. I don''t get mad I get even. Just so you know The feminists are all behind me and we will stop at nothing to further divide the Democratic Party just to keep that boy from winning the presidential election. Make sure you send ME the Money, Tide, & Tithes.
Richardson, who served in President Clinton''s cabinet, disagreed.
Posted by ranakarimi at 02:15 PM : May 21, 2008
Yeah yeah yeah yada yada yada.
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