How Does Age Affect Polls?

Kathy Frankovic: Older Respondents May Process Questions Differently

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

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Last week, I wrote about question order, and why it sometimes matters. But I didn’t say much about why it happens - or which groups it is most likely to affect.

A dominant view about why question order effects occur is that people who have the least well-formed and least strongly-held opinions can be affected by what they’ve just heard. That would be why we sometimes find that the assessment of one candidate is based on the context of who else was asked about immediately before. (This is why Bob Dole looked better, at least to some voters, when he was compared to Pat Buchanan than when he was compared to Bill Clinton). Contrary-wise, people who already have strong and consistent opinions theoretically won’t be affected by what they are asked about beforehand.

In the early 1980’s, we saw examples of how the subject matter of a questionnaire even affected the way people thought of themselves - e.g., when asked if they were Democrats or Republicans. When we asked for party identification (typically at the end of our surveys) we found that if many of the questions in the poll were about drugs or crime, more people called themselves Republicans; when they were asked mostly about poverty or other social problems, more of them called themselves Democrats.

We have long believed that the older you are, the more likely you are to have strongly-held opinions. A lifetime of thinking about political issues should make opinions part of your identity - if you think about politics at all.

But a new article by a team of American, Canadian and German researchers suggests a different reason for why question order has less of an effect on older respondents. In The Journal of Official Statistics 23 (2007) published by the Swedish national statistical office), Barbel Knauper, Norbert Schwarz, Denise Park and Andreas Fritsch make the case that older people holding strong opinions may only be part of the explanation. They suggest older people are less likely to be affected by question order because they process information differently - which is a polite way of saying that older people may not remember what they’ve just been asked as often or as easily as younger people do. So what has gone before is less likely to affect their responses later in the survey.

Now before you dismiss this as simply a stereotype of senior citizens, recognize that this research is part of a growing body of knowledge about the cognitive processes involved in answering survey questions. How do people react when they are asked a question? Cognitive theorists believe the mental process works this way: when people are asked a question, they first have to understand the meaning of the question, then recall the appropriate information from memory and then form a judgment and an answer which both reflects their judgment and fits into the options they have been offered. In other words, people don’t necessarily have the right answer to a poll question immediately at hand - they have to FIND it.

When question order effects occur, we assume that something from the previous question or questions is one of the many things that people are thinking about when people are answering the next question. It is part of the respondent’s “working memory” at the moment he or she responds. How much information is in working memory varies from person to person, and tends to decline with advancing age. Therefore, in theory, older adults are less likely to keep the details of the prior question in mind when they answer the next one. They have to go through the process of searching out the information to answer the question and make their judgment all over again.

The authors tested this hypothesis in an experiment that looked at differences between older adults with high working memory and those with lower working memory. [That difference in working memory was measured by asking people to answer questions based on a set of sentences read to them one by one, while at the same time keeping the last word of each sentence in memory - which they were asked to write down at the end of the sequence.] Sure enough, those older adults with high working memory were more subject to question order effects than were those with lower working memory!

The authors make another case for the role of aging (and the corresponding decline of working memory) in survey responses. Looking at the relationship of age to response order (as opposed to question order) the impact increases with age. Older people are more likely to be subject to what is called the “recency effect” - more likely to choose the answer option in a question that is offered to them last. In other words, the working memory for (at least some) older people may not be high enough to contain all the options. The longer the question, the harder it is to remember everything the question is about and all of what the answer options!

Thus, when designing survey questions and ordering questionnaires, it’s very helpful to know that these effects exist. But we need to keep in mind that while the overall effect can be minimal, but their impact probably isn’t random!

[kenbomc]

When I was younger, I was always moved by big speeches. Now I am older, I know experience is more important. Experience helps one to make sound judgements. That is why I want to vote for Hillary, otherwise, McCain.

Posted by tslogg1 at 01:43 PM : May 16, 2008
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Obama had the judgement and the intellect to oppose the war in Iraq -he stuck up for what he believed in even when it wasn''t the most popular thing to do at the time. That is a huge difference in judgement. The only thing McSame has is Washington experience -nothing more. Nothing will change with him. McSame agrees with Bush''s economic and foriegn policies. Age does play a role in judgement. Everyone''s judgement slows and deteriorates with age -McFlip is not as sharp as he was 20 years ago -this is a liability. McFlop should''ve run for prez back then, but he couldn''t because of the scandals he was involved in.

[kenbomc]

truthyness at 02:06 AM : May 18, 2008;

Then you woke up.

[truthyness]

I can prove that the Republicans are making fools out of the Blacks.

The stuff that Obama admitted to in the two books he

wrote is enough to lose him the election. But has

anyone heard anything about either of these writings

by a major National Television Station????

NO! Because they are setting on it until Hillary is

out of the picture and Obama will lose the Presidency

by the largest margine yet. And anyone who can''t

see that and continues to believe otherwise after

reading those two books is being FOOLISH!!!!

[truthyness]

I can prove that the Republicans are making fools out of the Blacks.

The stuff that Obama admitted to in the two books he

wrote is enough to lose him the election. But has

anyone heard anything about either of these writings

by a major National Television Station????

NO! Because they are setting on it until Hillary is

out of the picture and Obama will lose the Presidency

by the largest margine yet. And anyone who can''t

see that and continues to believe otherwise after

reading those two books is being FOOLISH!!!!

[sgtrds-e4]

McCain is sooooo old that he invented dirt and discovered rocks!

[omaar-101]

McCain says "Protect Our Allies" That would include not only Israel, but (Saudi Arabia)& (UAE) United Arab Emirates...

Note, Both Saudi Arabia & United Arab Emirates, Overtook and Piloted the (911 Planes) !!!

President George Bush gathered up and Flew the Bin Laden Families Home to (Saudi Arabia) which he could`ve Detained & Held the Families, until Osama Bin Laden, Surrendered. But NOOOO

President George W. Bush is Right Now in Saudi Arabia, Hugging & Kissing the Royal Saudi Arabian Families A!!`s and acts as if, Nothing has Happened and You Bush Jr. Lovers, also act as though these Arab Countries are our "Allies" When they should be the Countries the USA, should Attack !!


Yet its Barack Obama, that you`re all Up Tight about...

Its not his Policy, its His Color & His Name, that Bother You...Face that FACT !!!


He`s still going to be Your USA President.

PS: You Do Know, Hillary Clinton`s Campaign Treasurer is...

(Iranian) Just thought, You should Know..See Ya !!

Bush & Hillary is Alright...They`re ...White !!!


Whites Only, in the Oval Office !!!!

[omaar-101]

McCain says "Protect Our Allies" That would include not only Israel, but (Saudi Arabia)& (UAE) United Arab Emirates...

Note, Both Saudi Arabia & United Arab Emirates, Overtook and Piloted the (911 Planes) !!!

President George Bush gathered up and Flew the Bin Laden Families Home to (Saudi Arabia) which he could`ve Detained & Held the Families, until Osama Bin Laden, Surrendered. But NOOOO

President George W. Bush is Right Now in Saudi Arabia, Hugging & Kissing the Royal Saudi Arabian Families A!!`s and acts as if, Nothing has Happened and You Bush Jr. Lovers, also act as though these Arab Countries are our "Allies" When they should be the Countries the USA, should Attack !!


Yet its Barack Obama, that you`re all Up Tight about...

Its not his Policy, its His Color & His Name, that Bother You...Face that FACT !!!


He`s still going to be Your USA President.

PS: You Do Know, Hillary Clinton`s Campaign Treasurer is...

(Iranian) Just thought, You should Know..See Ya !!

Bush & Hillary is Alright...They`re ...White !!!


Whites Only, in the Oval Office !!!!

[jbright9]

Hillary would make the best leader of the three candidates. Obama is at least intelligent which is more than we can say for our present leader. NO ONE can do a worse job than George W Bush

[themagic07]

WAKE UP DEMOCRATS%u2026..Pls don%u2019t be fooled by a rookie car salesman (OBAMA). Why we can not trust this rookie? As Democrats, YOU need to figure it out. He is an empty suit, and just a talker. This rookie can say anything to get elected. This guy is PHONY%u2026If he is the Democratic nominee, the Republican machine will eat him alive.

A vote or endorsement for this rookie car salesman is a vote/endorsement for WRIGHT, REZKO, AYERS, AND FARAHKHAN%u2026..OBAMA is dishonest and disgrace. He does not deserve my vote! WAKE UP DEMOCRATS, %u2026

VOTE for Hillary, she has the strength and experiences, please don%u2019t waste your vote!

[tslogg1]

When I was younger, I was always moved by big speeches. Now I am older, I know experience is more important. Experience helps one to make sound judgements. That is why I want to vote for Hillary, otherwise, McCain.

[jack3213]

ON THE OTHER HAND, THE YOUNGER PEOPLE ARE TOO INEXPERIANCED TO KNOW WHAT THE RIGHT ANSWER IS.