Fast Forward To Obama's America In 2012

National Review Online: By Living In Fantasy World, Candidate Will Learn Lessons The Hard Way

(National Review Online)  This column was written by Michael Novak.

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One of the wisest American former officials I know asked me a few nights ago: “Michael, put on your thinking cap, and tell me where the United States will be four years from now, if Barack Obama is president.”

I had been trying to avoid that question in my own mind. I have tried to tell myself the old proverb (told to me by my father), “God takes care of children, drunks, and the United States of America.” I have tried to imagine that Barack Obama will not be president.

But I should try to do the responsible thing: follow the trail from Obama’s announced principles and policies to their probable effects, based on how we have learned that the world actually works.

The number one issue, orders of magnitude greater than others, is what will happen in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other sources of worldwide terrorism - suicide bombers, haters of Israel, and would-be destroyers of the United States and her allies. What will happen in Iraq? What will happen in Iran? What will happen in Pakistan?

Our Democratic party ever since George McGovern’s candidacy in 1972 has wished and wished, like an undisciplined child, for a benevolent world of peace, in which we could “talk to” and “reason with” those leaders whom earlier administrations had learned they could neither trust nor deal with as rational, benevolent partners. Earlier administrations had also hoped that other leaders of nations respected us, and meant us well. Events like the bombing of the World Trade Center, the attack on the USS Cole, and September 11, 2001, plus the subsequent fury and irrational cruelty of jihadists around the world, disillusioned them. But not, apparently, Obama; nor many members of the left-wing generation he represents.

The partisans of the welfare state demand peace, in order to pay for its insatiable need to keep handing out more and more benefits. That is why left-wing statists take peace as their natural inheritance. They cannot go on without it. They do not intend to pay any price for it; there are no funds left for that.

Given the historical record of the last 200 years (and more), what can we expect from this nursery-room fantasy? An untypical, even unprecedented era of peace? Or, on the contrary, the salivating determination of enemies to celebrate our visible moral weakness, and to slay their hated enemy while we bow our heads, standing there as weak and frightened supplicants? When a head is lowered from weakness, they strike it off.

In my experience, unwillingness to fight earns one contempt, further furies of terror, and truly bitter war. But perhaps other observers trust human nature more than I.

If the United States shows signs of weakness, surrender, and a one-sided departure from Iraq, the rejoicing of those who predicted that they would in the end defeat us will profoundly strengthen their resolve for the next battle. Further, without an offensive thrust in Iraq, any military forts or airfields of ours would be sheltered in a defensive enclave - announcing to those who hate us that they should keep killing two or more Americans every day, drip, drip, drip, until the American people cannot stand it any more. Weakness once shown invites fiercer aggression.

Iran will thus have its nuclear weapon by 2012, secure in the knowledge that Americans have no heart to do battle to prevent it.

In Pakistan, forces of economic and political development will know that they can no longer count on the Americans as a last resort. They would soon - to save their families - begin to yield more and more space to jihadists, terrorists, and promoters of sharia law. Free nations by 2016 will be far weaker than now, with far less space in which to alter the direction of terrorism.

Domestic Policy
Meanwhile, if Obama keeps his pledge to raise taxes on the top 10 percent of income earners (or even on the top 2 percent), he will give them enormous incentives to alter their behavior, so as to show lower income. Since the top 1 percent of earners pay over 35 percent of all income taxes paid by all Americans, any decline in their income means a steep decline in tax revenues. Obama seems to have no comprehension that raising tax rates at the top dramatically lowers revenue coming in. He will learn the hard way.

His policies on quasi-universal health care will change all the incentives in our current health system - and for the worse. Studies show that a high proportion of demands for health care are the result of personal behaviors - eating or drinking too much, not exercising enough, leading a dissipated life, not taking advantage of preventive care, spending health dollars heedlessly (because they are paid by the State, not the responsible individual).

Many older doctors will leave medical practice rather than become employees of the State, constantly regulated, badgered, and demeaned. The idea of medicine as a proud, independent, inventive profession will be profoundly wounded. In hospitals, paying benefits for patients (even if they practice irresponsible behaviors) will demand ever more dollars, which must necessarily be pulled out of research and invention. Long bureaucratic lists of those needing particular operations will force even the neediest patients to wait long months before they can get care.

Neither Obama nor his party seems to understand how incentives motivate human behavior - not force, not coercion, not mockery, not nursery-school regulation, but real possibilities of good fruits up ahead for free and responsible actions. They do not understand the wellsprings of a virtuous, free, and prosperous society. They are still entangled in the fantasies of the European Left of 150 years ago.

Thus, Obama is now the creature and the prisoner of the American far Left, which has learned nothing from the failures of socialist and statist and anti-capitalist ideas during the past hundred years. Many leftists learn nothing, know nothing, and propel themselves not with practical wisdom, but with outrage and contempt and a desire to punish those who do not agree with them.

My friend himself thought, he finally revealed, that the West has come to an epochal axial point in history. From now on, economic and political progress would grow far less quickly than ever before, and a long-lasting, precipitous decline is about to begin. Overseas, and also at home.

Morally, too, virtue and character and responsibility for oneself would be mocked and discouraged. The State would take over more and more of life. Although licentiousness would be glorified on big screen and small screen (the Democrats favor the Hollywood view of the world, and vice versa), neither self-directed liberty nor self-mastery nor responsibility for the consequences of one’s own behavior would be encouraged. These would be treated as retrograde ideas. All virtue would be attributed to the motherly caring State - and to its political managers. Woe to the “right-wing” dissenters!

Well, maybe I am wrong. But that is how I see things, admittedly through a cloudy glass.

My only two suppositions are (1) that Obama will do exactly what he now says he will do; and (2) that we may dimly discern the consequences likely to flow from his words and actions, based upon what we have seen happen in other decades and other generations.

My most hopeful moments derive from imagining that Obama, as president, will be dissuaded from acting as he now says that he will. In that way, God will once again take care of those who are drunk on statist illusions, and He will once again take care of the United States, despite itself. It is when I take Obama at his word that pessimism floods over my heart.

[ioweign]

Fast Forward To Obama''''''''s America In 2012

Novak - you missed the most obvious...

Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld have been in prison 3 years of a 10 years sentence.

The Republican Party has been outlawed because of its complicity in Crimes against Humanity...



Posted by IOWEIGN at 08:41 AM : May 16, 2008

That may be well, indeed, as they deserve to be in jail. But having them in jail doesn''''t put food on your table or provide you with housing, nor put gasoline in your car.

We''d had enough far right extremism. Going to the far left extremism is also suicide for the middle class!

Our two party system is essential. We must have one to stimulate the economy and one to take care of the will of the people. Without a president with a centrist position who understands this, the middle class is totally vulnerable to the highest tax rates and further shrinking of our income for gimme''''s for people without the will to get up and work an honest job. Giving people a hand up when they need it is one thing, but supporting the unwilling is something else.

Obama hasn''t a clue about the balancing act. And he''s totally dangerous to this country with his fool ideas that you can just bamboozle rogue nations with purty words.

Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 09:25 AM : May 16, 2008

Well Rowdy - you know the Middle East will come to our rescue with their version of the Marshall Plan to payback Bush...

[the74blaster]

The Republicans (conservatives) have had their shot at guiding the ship of state, and it is now drawing to a close - in utter failure.

Their time is over now. We can all see that.

Posted by IT_Oldtimer,

Good point! I would like to add that the republicans proved that having a GOP dominated government is worse than having a government dominated by democrats.

The democrats may have have spend money but they at least showed some fiscal responsibility by paying as you go.

The GOP used false statements to start an optional war in Iraq, cut taxes to the rich, increased spending and increased the debt by borrowing money from Communist China to pay for it!

The result is the dollars value has dropped like a brick and the increased cost of gasoline is a symptom from their lack of vision for our country.

To the readers of this post, please do not forget this when you cast your ballot this November. In the private sector lack of job performance means termination of employment.

Why should our president or his supporters be any different?

Lets hold the president and his GOP supporters responsible and terminate the GOP for what they have done to our country!

[it_oldtimer]

@ truthyness:

Even the Republicans admit that there is very, very little actual difference between Obama''s positions and Hillary''s positions on the issues.

I can only presume, then, that the whole basis for your dislike of Obama stems from that fact that you''re a racist? Would that be correct?

It sure sounds like it. What other reason could there really be?

[truthyness]

Dem. Party Leaders, Super Delegates and Obama, don''t seem to understand just how much some Democrats don''t like Obama. Well, I can''''''''t speak for everyone, however, but this is how I feel.

I hated 8 years of George Bush. I was nauseous most of the time. Have you ever smelled rotting human flesh? I would rather walk into a sealed tight house in 100 degree heat that had 10 rotting dead bodies stacked up on the other side of the door and set down and eat a tuna fish and mustard sandwich...instead of having Bush in office a day longer. YET! I would rather have Bush in office the rest of my life than to have Obama in the White House for 1 day.

I realize that sounds harsh, but it looks like some of us are going to have to get a little harsh in order to shake our leadership into the reality of the situation and out of DENIAL.

We have to do whatever is needed to be done in order to get these people to take us seriously.

SO LETS DO IT PEOPLE!!!!

[kansas1946]

The better things look for Obama, the more desparate the far-right gets, and the more desparate their rebuttals sound. Case in point.
****************************************************
***Neither Obama nor his party seems to understand how incentives motivate human behavior - not force, not coercion, not mockery, not nursery-school regulation, but real possibilities of good fruits up ahead for free and responsible actions. They do not understand the wellsprings of a virtuous, free, and prosperous society. They are still entangled in the fantasies of the European Left of 150 years ago.
********************************

That is the most ludicrous rant possible. It even has the gall to suggest that the "right" values a "a virtuous, free, and prosperous society."

That is the biggest joke of the day. Republicans don''t know the meaning of the words, "virtuous, free, and or, prosperous."

[it_oldtimer]

The Republicans (conservatives) have had their shot at guiding the ship of state, and it is now drawing to a close - in utter failure.

Their time is over now. We can all see that.

Conservatives live in the past, and it''s into the past that they''re rapidly fading. There is really no point in arguing with them any more. This next election will reveal to them in a painfully clear way just what sort of "grade" the country gives them and their ideology/agenda. Maybe then they''ll begin to see and admit the errors of their ways and their thinking.

Whether they eventually wise up or not, their time is past, and that''s what really matters. It''s time to move on.

[guysdigdirt]

Any person who,
-as senator votes against making English the official language og the U.S.,
-Refuses to wear the american flag as a pin,
-refuses to put his hand on his heart during the national anthem and
-dedicates his book to a hate mongering religious mentor who he has followed for 20 years.
Should not be even a senator, let alone be able to run for President of the United States.
Posted by guysdigdirt at 11:43 AM

Yeah, next thing you know, he''''ll be ''''outing'''' CIA agents.
Posted by dragonwagon5

Let''s see, who would be a better president...

A man who hates America and does not respect the people or the freedom it offers... or

A man who looks like a monkey and fights to protect the US and it''s people and who takes immense heat for it while those of the opposition voted to do the same thing but have cowardly turned their backs on the soldiers when it became unpopular?

tough choice but I vote we send person number one to live in Iraq.

[guysdigdirt]

Any person who,
-as senator votes against making English the official language og the U.S.,
-Refuses to wear the american flag as a pin,
-refuses to put his hand on his heart during the national anthem and
-dedicates his book to a hate mongering religious mentor who he has followed for 20 years.
Should not be even a senator, let alone be able to run for President of the United States.
Posted by guysdigdirt at 11:43 AM

Yeah, next thing you know, he''''ll be ''''outing'''' CIA agents.
Posted by dragonwagon5

Let''s see, who would be a better president...

A man who hates America and does not respect the people or the freedom it offers... or

A man who looks like a monkey and fights to protect the US and it''s people and who takes immense heat for it while those of the opposition voted to do the same thing but have cowardly turned their backs on the soldiers when it became unpopular?

tough choice but I vote we send person number one to live in Iraq.

[kmr214]

This is just silly, to put it politely.

It''s hard to even pick a place to start. How about that any diplomatic contact with nations like Iran is nothing but "...signs of weakness, surrender ... ".

Huh? You mean it is impossible to be diplomatic from a position of strength? When did Obama or any Democrat for that matter, call for abolishing our military? On the contrary, Dems would like to fix the military from it''s brink of collapse.

And, "God takes care of children, drunks, and the United States of America."

If god took care of drunks ... there''d be no drunks! By this logic, 9/11 was an act of god ... or at least sanctioned by god.

If this nonsense is what you propose for a platform to govern the nation, we''re all in trouble. For that matter, with god on your side, why be afraid of talking to Iran?

[imnho]

The policies of the last seven years have been a profound failure. No propagada from the NRO will ever change that. Iraq is basically a lost cause and it is time to start dealing with that tragic fact. Sadar is sart enought to figure out that he can siply outwait the surge and then take over. This ia not going to happen under a republican president. At this point the people in charge are needlessly wasting money and life trying to keep the lid on a civil war that is inevitable. Trying to trash Obama will ot change it.

[guysdigdirt]

Any person who,
-as senator votes against making English the official language og the U.S.,
-Refuses to wear the american flag as a pin,
-refuses to put his hand on his heart during the national anthem and
-dedicates his book to a hate mongering religious mentor who he has followed for 20 years.

Should not be even a senator, let alone be able to run for President of the United States.

[trohunt00]

Man, are the NRO the 18% of Americans that believes that the country is still on the right track??
I must be missing something. Novak says "Neither Obama nor his party seems to understand how incentives motivate human behavior - not force, not coercion, not mockery...", uhh, but then when Mr. Obama said he would talk to the heads of rouge states such as Iran, he''s called foolish for wanting to offer a different way than the old tough talking chest-thumping we''ve done the last 8 years. Is it hard to talk out of both sides of your mouth??? And waitaminnit! Two years ago Mccain said that he would be willing to speak to Hamas, yet he tries to hit Obama for saying he would speak to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad!! And Bush has had talks with Leaders in North Korea and Libya! Apparently in the republican world there is no tape or written word, so they will say things totally secure in the fact that once they say it, it disappears into a soundless black hole, freeing them up to take the same position that they were earlier attacking!. And lets not even get started with "GOLF-Gate!" this president has been a huge joke, and if any of you yahoos learn anything from this ordeal, get this: This is the type of president you get when you want a guy you can sit and have a beer with. next time pick the smart guy. things work better with smart people than with dumb people. Everytime.

[mbcsmith]

barrack wants the president of the United States to unconditionally meet with the leader of a state sponsor of terrorism, who kills our troops and is building a nuclear program in defiance of the world. Yeah, great judgement.

[joecoolswat]

mydogdylan6....You guys complain about 4 dollar gas, guess who pumps oil....The Saudis...so it makes complete sense, who should we speak to about increasing production ? OPEC and Saudi Arabia, since they are a decent Ally to the United States, and have allowed us to use their air bases to launch strikes in the past, but we now have our own Air Bases established in the 51 state of New Iraq

[joecoolswat]

Thats Obama''s new name today...Barrack OCarter....they want to play this game, McSame, McBush, guess who Obama resembles...Jimmy Carter....even Dukakis is laughing at him..

[joecoolswat]

Thats Obama''s new name today...Barrack OCarter....they want to play this game, McSame, McBush, guess who Obama resembles...Jimmy Carter....even Dukakis is laughing at him..

[joecoolswat]

roger_inkart....Trust us, Republicans are very confident going into the election....New article came out that says the reason Hamas and terrorist organizations like Barrack OCarter, is because his middle name is Hussein.
Fox News 5/16/08

[mydogdylan6]

The Republicans gave Suddam Hussein his power by supplying him with money and arms to fight Iran in the 80''s. The Republicans supported the Taliban "freedom fighters" in Afghanistan to fight the Soviets. Vietnam, Korea, Noriega, the Contras - all attempts to set up "our type" of governments in nations that didn''t want them. History tells a different story than what Mr Novak wants us to believe.

The extremists of the world will always be there. They''re *** and must be stopped. However, Saddam was virtually powerless outside his own country. Bush/GOP policy has simply created a mess in the entire region. Trying to impose western ideals and giving military threats only fuels the extremists. They view our lifesytle as sinful. It gives them a platform from which to draw support. Locals in the region see us as wanting dominate, not free, them.

We talk to Saudi Arabia (who sends more funds to AlQida than anyone according to our State Dept and who''s people were the planners of 9-11 ), but we do not invade them. We currently talk to Syria, Jordan, Egypt. But Mr Novak implies that we should never even try to talk with Iran? Just threaten them.

Our current policies are not making us safer. There are generations of young extremists being bred by our military manipulation of the region. Perhaps we should at least listen to them before we threaten to obliterate them. If after that, they pose a LEGITIMATE threat to the US, then we must act.

[mydogdylan6]

Mr Novak implies we should continue to force our Christian style democracy abroad. That we should send our arimies to bomb and occupy those nations who disagree with the United States. He references history, but doesn''t mention that imperialist policy has ALWAYS led to the downfall of the world''s greatest powers. (Romans, Russians, British, Nazis, Spanish, etc...) The US is not imune from the same fate. A continuation of our current angendas be our downfall as well.

[roger_inkart]

Another mindless, fear-mongering hatchet job from the lunatics at the NRO. As if the presidency of GW Bush should be considered some kind of success.

At least I know you little weasels are nervous. That''s a good sign.