Fast Forward To Obama's America In 2012

National Review Online: By Living In Fantasy World, Candidate Will Learn Lessons The Hard Way

(National Review Online)  This column was written by Michael Novak.

---

One of the wisest American former officials I know asked me a few nights ago: “Michael, put on your thinking cap, and tell me where the United States will be four years from now, if Barack Obama is president.”

I had been trying to avoid that question in my own mind. I have tried to tell myself the old proverb (told to me by my father), “God takes care of children, drunks, and the United States of America.” I have tried to imagine that Barack Obama will not be president.

But I should try to do the responsible thing: follow the trail from Obama’s announced principles and policies to their probable effects, based on how we have learned that the world actually works.

The number one issue, orders of magnitude greater than others, is what will happen in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other sources of worldwide terrorism - suicide bombers, haters of Israel, and would-be destroyers of the United States and her allies. What will happen in Iraq? What will happen in Iran? What will happen in Pakistan?

Our Democratic party ever since George McGovern’s candidacy in 1972 has wished and wished, like an undisciplined child, for a benevolent world of peace, in which we could “talk to” and “reason with” those leaders whom earlier administrations had learned they could neither trust nor deal with as rational, benevolent partners. Earlier administrations had also hoped that other leaders of nations respected us, and meant us well. Events like the bombing of the World Trade Center, the attack on the USS Cole, and September 11, 2001, plus the subsequent fury and irrational cruelty of jihadists around the world, disillusioned them. But not, apparently, Obama; nor many members of the left-wing generation he represents.

The partisans of the welfare state demand peace, in order to pay for its insatiable need to keep handing out more and more benefits. That is why left-wing statists take peace as their natural inheritance. They cannot go on without it. They do not intend to pay any price for it; there are no funds left for that.

Given the historical record of the last 200 years (and more), what can we expect from this nursery-room fantasy? An untypical, even unprecedented era of peace? Or, on the contrary, the salivating determination of enemies to celebrate our visible moral weakness, and to slay their hated enemy while we bow our heads, standing there as weak and frightened supplicants? When a head is lowered from weakness, they strike it off.

In my experience, unwillingness to fight earns one contempt, further furies of terror, and truly bitter war. But perhaps other observers trust human nature more than I.

If the United States shows signs of weakness, surrender, and a one-sided departure from Iraq, the rejoicing of those who predicted that they would in the end defeat us will profoundly strengthen their resolve for the next battle. Further, without an offensive thrust in Iraq, any military forts or airfields of ours would be sheltered in a defensive enclave - announcing to those who hate us that they should keep killing two or more Americans every day, drip, drip, drip, until the American people cannot stand it any more. Weakness once shown invites fiercer aggression.

Iran will thus have its nuclear weapon by 2012, secure in the knowledge that Americans have no heart to do battle to prevent it.

In Pakistan, forces of economic and political development will know that they can no longer count on the Americans as a last resort. They would soon - to save their families - begin to yield more and more space to jihadists, terrorists, and promoters of sharia law. Free nations by 2016 will be far weaker than now, with far less space in which to alter the direction of terrorism.

Domestic Policy
Meanwhile, if Obama keeps his pledge to raise taxes on the top 10 percent of income earners (or even on the top 2 percent), he will give them enormous incentives to alter their behavior, so as to show lower income. Since the top 1 percent of earners pay over 35 percent of all income taxes paid by all Americans, any decline in their income means a steep decline in tax revenues. Obama seems to have no comprehension that raising tax rates at the top dramatically lowers revenue coming in. He will learn the hard way.

His policies on quasi-universal health care will change all the incentives in our current health system - and for the worse. Studies show that a high proportion of demands for health care are the result of personal behaviors - eating or drinking too much, not exercising enough, leading a dissipated life, not taking advantage of preventive care, spending health dollars heedlessly (because they are paid by the State, not the responsible individual).

Many older doctors will leave medical practice rather than become employees of the State, constantly regulated, badgered, and demeaned. The idea of medicine as a proud, independent, inventive profession will be profoundly wounded. In hospitals, paying benefits for patients (even if they practice irresponsible behaviors) will demand ever more dollars, which must necessarily be pulled out of research and invention. Long bureaucratic lists of those needing particular operations will force even the neediest patients to wait long months before they can get care.

Neither Obama nor his party seems to understand how incentives motivate human behavior - not force, not coercion, not mockery, not nursery-school regulation, but real possibilities of good fruits up ahead for free and responsible actions. They do not understand the wellsprings of a virtuous, free, and prosperous society. They are still entangled in the fantasies of the European Left of 150 years ago.

Thus, Obama is now the creature and the prisoner of the American far Left, which has learned nothing from the failures of socialist and statist and anti-capitalist ideas during the past hundred years. Many leftists learn nothing, know nothing, and propel themselves not with practical wisdom, but with outrage and contempt and a desire to punish those who do not agree with them.

My friend himself thought, he finally revealed, that the West has come to an epochal axial point in history. From now on, economic and political progress would grow far less quickly than ever before, and a long-lasting, precipitous decline is about to begin. Overseas, and also at home.

Morally, too, virtue and character and responsibility for oneself would be mocked and discouraged. The State would take over more and more of life. Although licentiousness would be glorified on big screen and small screen (the Democrats favor the Hollywood view of the world, and vice versa), neither self-directed liberty nor self-mastery nor responsibility for the consequences of one’s own behavior would be encouraged. These would be treated as retrograde ideas. All virtue would be attributed to the motherly caring State - and to its political managers. Woe to the “right-wing” dissenters!

Well, maybe I am wrong. But that is how I see things, admittedly through a cloudy glass.

My only two suppositions are (1) that Obama will do exactly what he now says he will do; and (2) that we may dimly discern the consequences likely to flow from his words and actions, based upon what we have seen happen in other decades and other generations.

My most hopeful moments derive from imagining that Obama, as president, will be dissuaded from acting as he now says that he will. In that way, God will once again take care of those who are drunk on statist illusions, and He will once again take care of the United States, despite itself. It is when I take Obama at his word that pessimism floods over my heart.

[stopkidding]

You forgot to mention that fire will fall from the sky, black and white people will marry each other, we will all perish in insanity, and that everyone will be forced to become a minority lesbian. Other than that, very thorough and thoughtful article!

[noloyalisti]

The writers of the NRO, a pawn of the war-profiteering mainstream media, are the ones living in a fantasy land. They portray the moderate Obama as a far left liberal because he is sick and tired of big corporations runing the government and stealing from the people.

Obama is tired, as I am, of the completely failed conservative ideology. He is tired of the killing and murder for oil, the illegal spying and torture and of the extremist war mongers like bush cheney mcBush and the rest of the GOP.

There is nothing wrong with socializing industries like health care oil as long as it is overseen by people who actually work for We. Yes, the NRO is the mouthpiece of the radical right wing wackos.

[rru2s]

You lost credibility with the opening, "Our Democratic party ever since George McGovern%u2019s candidacy in 1972". ---Rove-inspired right-wing brainless ideology: democratic is evil, everything republican is good.

"what will happen in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other sources of worldwide terrorism - suicide bombers, haters of Israel, and would-be destroyers of the United States and her allies?" Answer -- 100-fold slower recruiting new terrorists, if we stop acting as an invading aggressor.

"the salivating determination of enemies to celebrate our visible moral weakness, and to slay their hated enemy while we bow our heads, standing there as weak and frightened supplicants?" --- Is this the same speechwriter that Adolf Hilter used?

"taxes on the top 10 percent...will give them enormous incentives to alter their behavior, so as to show lower income..." Already the top 10 percent take as many tax shelters as possible, that won''t change. If the goal is to get wealthier, I doubt anyone will stop working or making money.

"They are still entangled in the fantasies of the European Left of 150 years ago..." --An attitude remniscent of the greed and inhumanity of the wealthly during England''s 1800s industrial era -- Would England be better off today if they had continued to enslave the common folk ... 12 hour workdays, debtors prisons, no medical care for the common folk (Let Tiny Tim''s Dad find a better job with benefits or die!) Can you feel the love?

[rodeo555]

This, just more NRO short-sighted drivel, so typical.

NRO contributors actually have good reason to fear an Obama administration . . . they will become even more marginalized and irrelevant than they are now . . .

Keep up your shoddy work

[budshoes]

Well, then%u2026let%u2019s take a look at a McCain%u2019s America Circa: 2012.
Ummm%u2026 Well, what%u2019s changed? Well, NOTHING.

[element51]

Oh, how I dream of a perfect world. In my dreams I see a world where there are no taxes on the wealthy. Why should they pay tax when they provide for the very existance of all those below them? Let more, much more, tax be taken from the rest of society. These "workers" will take a mile if given an inch. Let''s keep them in their place. And why do we just "give" money to old people? If they can''t feed and take care of themselves what good are they? Why let them continue to take our money when they serve no purpose at all? If they can''t survive then it was time for them to go and good riddence. And this stupid health care thing is just ridiculous. If you get sick and can''t pay for treatment it is your fault and therefore you have no right to expect us to pay your bills. If you weren''t smart enough to prepare for a 200 thousand dollar medical bill...to bad, so sad, your problem, not mine. And feeding hungry kids makes no sense. If they''re hungry enough they will find something to eat. Why should I be bothered. They aren''t MY kids. If you can''t feed them, don''t have them. We take care of OUR kids, you can do the same. In my dream world there is US and there is the rest of you. You should be grateful to serve us since that is the reason you exist. WE are the elite, WE have value, you don''t! Wouldn''t you love to live in this dream world?

[element51]

Novak, are you kidding. You have a heart?

[enriquecaliente]

Incentives...???

Oh you mean like, laying off hundreds of thousands of Americans so Senior Management and the top 2% can have even more money...

Or like not holding the Bankers who have created this credit crunch and now the government has to bail out, with the peoples tax dollars.

How shameful of me, I should be jumping with joy, a $600.00 check is coming my way, to help ignite the economy.

[zorlacskates]

how convenient, NRO can predict the future. too bad they weren''t quite as prescient 8 years ago - they could have saved us all one of the worst presidencies in US history.

who gives a *** what NRO thinks about anything. bunch of right-wing hacks.

[sharncedar]

"The number one issue, orders of magnitude greater than others, is what will happen in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other sources of worldwide terrorism - suicide bombers, haters of Israel,"

The number one issue, says the NRO, for the entire United States, a nation of 300 million people, predominantly Christian and of many backgrounds including Arab, is what happens to Israel and the "Israel-haters". Is that the case? How about some of you neo-con bush lovers (non-Jewish I mean) chime in on that. Is that your vision of the number one issue for America?

The writers and editors of the NRO should nto be let off, we need to see these guys stand trial for treason and off to Gitmo. this is no joke, to support another country above your own is high treason, a capital crime. We need to stop showing so much "liberal" tolerance to a group like the NRO, who are practicing sedition within our own borders, within our own goevernment. These guys are beyond what can be tolerated, even in a democracy.

[element51]

enriquecalie.....You are SO right. Asking NRO for the facts is like asking Santa for a new bike. They are nothing but hacks for the conservative party and are about to wet themselves in fear that Obama might win. Look for more outrageous claims as the election draws closer. These people wouldn''t know the truth if they made love to it. They disgust me.

[element51]

SharnCedar....Good post! I don''t have a thing against the Jews. In fact, I admire them as a people. But I have often wondered, if they are such close friends and allies, why they have spies here in the US. Why do they feel the need to spy on us? Common sense says that you spy on your enemies, not your friends. Maybe I''m missing something here, I really don''t know.

[crater7]

IMAGINE THAT!!!


HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM.

GOD "BLESS" AMERICA. NOT "G D" AMERICA.

[Razzl]

Wow, I think we can plainly see who''s been living in a fantasy world, and it ain''t you and me and Obama and Hillary. I couldn''t even begin to answer this bitter, hallucinatory diatribe of an aging neocon who hasn''t caught up with any political or social reality since 1972. What would we argue about? The idea that the islamists in their mountain caves are every bit as organized, powerful, and dangerous as the Soviet dictatorship was in its day? The idea that Americans don''t deserve access to health care because all our sickness is our own fault? The mind boggles, I only wish his colleagues at NRO are forced to listen to this rant as the price for their deals with the devil...

[walt1944-2009]

According to "Bagdad John McBush" McCain, under his possible tenure as Great Emperor over the next 4 years, Great Emperor McCain will:

1. Capture or kill Osama Bin Laden, maybe even do both!
2. The Iraq war will end a SECOND TIME, and troops will be coming home without any parades, or festivities since it will be too expensive!
3. Great Emperor McCain will veto any "pork" spending, including the filling of pot holes on city streets and rebuilding of bridges. All those using the roads will have to have a bucket of road patch repair in their trunks, fixing the streets as they go!
4. The Great Emperor McCain will implement his plan on health care for everyone which is "PLAN???, THERE AIN''T NO PLAN!!!!".
5. The Great Emperor intends on appointing more stupid neocons, not necessarily judges, to the Supreme Court thus insuring that the high court will continue to remain the neocon "dog and pony show" it has become!
6. Will "phase in" a flat tax to replace the hated income tax, which will be at 50% for anyone under $250,000, 25% for anyone between $250,001 to $999,999, and ZERO for anyone above $1,000,000! There would be ZERO corporate income tax!
7. Classify all of Cindy McCain''s tax returns from the year 1 to date as covered by "executive privilege''!

SIG HEIL, BUSH!!!
sig heil, DEFINITELY MORE OF THE SAME, McCain!!!!

[dewardbowles]

It is people like Novak who created this 8 year long nightmare to begin with. Why he should be given any deference is beyond my comprehension. Novak should sit out this election (don''t vote) and keep his mouth shut for the next 4 years while the people who made the right choices in the last 8 years try to figure out how to fix this utter disaster Bush with his help have made out of this country.

[doctor--o]

I have found the missing link in human evolution from lower life forms; NRO

[ricknuber]

This was another amazingly obtuse NRO editorial abortion.

Nothing to see here. Move along.

[cyberus-2009]

Didn''t NRO run some nonsense like this about Bill Clinton during his campaign?
I just hope they are as accurate with this article, we need another 8 year run of prosperity.

[bluestardad]

THIS MEANS SO MUCH COMING FROM THE NRO!

WHEN THE IRAQ WAR CRIMES TRIALS START SEE HOW MANY OF THESE NEOCONS RUN OFF TO SOUTH AMERICA OR ISRAEL TO HIDE FROM THEIR CRIMES!

AMERICA STAND UP OR SHUT UP!

[it_oldtimer]

What most conservatives just don''t seem to "get" is that we Americans OURSELVES have created, entirely on our own, all of our current problems with Islamic fundamentalists, through our own clumsy, narrow-minded policies, attitudes and global activities.

We entered their spheres of influence with arrogance and in sheer ignorance, and trampled on their religious beliefs with nary a thought, and we''re paying the steep price for that folly now.

Bin Laden was very clear about why he ordered the attack on the WTC: because America placed it''s troops - and in particular it''s FEMALE troops - on what the Muslims consider to be sacred ground (Saudi Arabia) prior to our invasion of Iraq/Kuwait.

The conservatives would have us spend trillions "fighting" an unwinnable "war on terror" that need never have started to begin with, if we''d been more sensitive and observant of the rights and beliefs of others in the first place.

The "War on Terror" can NEVER be "won". But we can back away from our blunder, admit our error, and try not to make the same mistakes in the future.

That''s clearly what Mr. Obama is advocating. The first step is to pull your "stick" out of the hornets nest. Then learn how to respect, and deal with, hornets.

[closethippy1]

Boy do we need a change of guard or what?! G freaking *** it! I''m tired of the same talking heads who have been cluttering our airwaves for the past 50 years.
We need a new way of thinking, for crying out loud. To paraphrase Einstein, we cannot solve today''s problems with the mentality we had when we first created them!
How true and it''s time we clean the slate and give new blood a chance.

[joyous88]

NRO,

jusr another part of the right wing noise machine

nazi fascists, that is what republicons have become

time for a change, after 12 years of lieing ,cheating

and stealing, and Bush the first truely anti american

president, like him?, vote for McBushsame

[it_oldtimer]

The "Conservative Agenda" is obviously to open the entire world up to CAPITALISM (NOT "Freedom" or "Democracy" as many Conservatives like to claim). They want unfettered corporate access to every nation on the planet, so they can make more money.

Not every person, or every nation, or every religion values Capitalism - and for very good reason. To many, "religious conservatism" trumps profit-taking every time, and they reject the idea that money is more important than religious piety.

And that is their choice to make, not ours. Who are we to say that our way is right, and theirs wrong?

What ignorant and hypocritical arrogance.

[joyous88]

these republicons, and I do mean CON,

voted and supported bush all these years , now they are worried about someone different than bush??

get real! anybody but McBushCain could do a better job

[joyous88]

The conservative agenda is immoral

[it_oldtimer]

The Conservative Agenda isn''t just "immoral", it''s truly "amoral"

Immoral means "morally wrong; corrupt".

Amoral means : "Lacking moral sensibility; NOT CARING ABOUT RIGHT AND WRONG".

The Conservatives only care about [personally] enriching themselves in any way that they can, with no regard to whether how they do it is "morally correct" or not (even by their OWN religious standards).

[frb01]

Dubya had one of the most experienced Vice Presidents on paper to hold the office, and appointed a Cabinet that was deep in Washington experience, ironically Condi Rice was probably one of the least experienced. In any case look where that got us. I haven''t decided who I will vote for in the fall, but my feeling is it can''t get worse than it is.

[jaykay3141]

I was going to suggest that Mr. Novak take this trash and put it out for recycling, but I forgot that neocons don''t believe in trying to help the environment.

Beam me up, Scotty.

[ubrew12]

Article: "One of the wisest American former officials I know asked me a few nights ago: ''Michael, put on your thinking cap, and tell me where the United States will be four years from now, if Barack Obama is president.'' "

Well, it''ll be CR*P!!!

It doesn''t matter WHO the next president of the U.S. is. He/She will always be known as the ''can''t do'' president.

Why do you think GW Bush has just DOUBLED the NATIONAL debt? After 30 YEARS of supply-side (read: living off our children) governance?

Folks. The battle is OVER. YOU LOST!! The rich have gotten richer, and are now fighting each other to dump dollars the fastest and move out of the U.S.

Geesh, people. Can''t you even figure out when you''re beaten???

Today on Nova-M radio, Robert Wexler (D-FL) said
"GENERALS STARTED FINALLY LISTENING TO OBAMA''S SUGGESTIONS" when he argued that Musharraf could not openly give permission for targetted strikes for fear of being assasinated

Here is what he was talking about --

1. August 2007 debate: Obama makes vocal case for striking terrorists inside Pakistan
"Let me make this clear: There are terrorists holed up in those mountains, that murdered 3,000 Americans," said Obama during the counterterrorism address. "If we have actionable intelligence about high-valued terrorist targets and if President Musharraf will not act, we will."
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=3458915

2. McCain, Hillary, Dodd, Biden all critisize him saying we should not be working against Musharraf our only advocate in the region

3. December 2007: Bhutto assassinated by terrorists

4. The Washington Post reported that in late January, a CIA aircraft fired on several buildings in the Pakistani town of Mir Ali, killing a senior al-Qaida commander and several others. The paper, quoting anonymous U.S. officials, said that the action was done without seeking approval from the Pakistani government.

5. Mid February ''08, Musharraf voted out of power; US has spent $11B trying to prop. up Musharraf

6. Late February, Senator Dodd endorsed Obama

[ubrew12]

IT_Oldtimer said: "what Mr. Obama is advocating... The first step is to pull your ''stick'' out of the hornets nest. Then learn how to respect, and deal with, hornets."

Hallelujah. Somebody GETS it.

[irliberal]

Oh the neocons are scared... it''s kind of funny, and I might feel sorry for them if they hadn''t done some much horrific damage over the past 8 years...

[langka-2009]

Mr. Novak''s logic is scary. If his reasoning is correct, the only possibility is to have United State dominate the world either by military or financial means. The concept of world peace and co-existence will never be achieved in his scenerio. Furthermore, he should realized that people and nations in the 21th century are much smarter. Trick and deception like occupation with dummy government and colonization by manipulation of unjust legal means will no longer be tolerated and are bound to failure. It''s just a matter of time.

[concerned01]

Ths person has a right to opinions, but there is no vestige of sense or reality in the poison he writes... not all Conservatives thin this way - this guy is simply a bad apple and giving Conservatives a very VERY bad name.

[sparks224]

What''s going to happen if George W Bush becomes president in 2000?

Oh, wait, that already happened.
My God, what a disaster.

[truthyness]

The people of the Democratic Party have had our rights spit on by Obama, the Democratic leadership and the media.

Some of us are too smart for the lies, the hype, the deception and all the insults.

Some of us will not forget.

Some of us will continue to fight back long after this election
is over.

[samthetvcat]

Wow, some of these neo-con pieces are so of the mark you really have to struggle to finish it... I only made it to the 5th paragraph with this one.

Anyway, it sounded a lot like Bush''s idea that the neocons stand for ''toughness'' and Obama stands for ''naivete'' and therefore equals ''danger!''... WRONG! The Repubs need to listen to that guy in their own ranks who yesterday said the Repub brand was like tainted dog food.

Shrub is a one-tool fool - meaning ALL he knows how to do is scan the horizon for potential threats and ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK!!!!! The vast majority of us think he and anybody who advocates staying so much as one more day in Iraq past Jan. 1 is like a buffoon bordering on a psycho - in the very least barely functional as a well-adjusted human being with an array of problem-solving abilities and capacities.

The GOP brand is so tarnished, I don''t even think voters need to be able to recognize that when Shrub and his cronies mouth off he''s oversimplifying people into ''tough''/''not tough'' because he lacks the capacity to evaluate situations and use the appropriate choice of competition, cooperation, disengagement, or wait-and-see, at the appropriate level of strength. All people need to see for the GOP to get trounced this November is that the Democrats aren''t hyper-aggressive like McShrub and that difference will be enough because the GOP have cried wolf WAY too many times.

[tiredofthebs]

Guess the OBAMA nation will dismiss this article as "PROPAGANDA". Too bad ...... though I don''t agree with everything in this article, it does make some VERY GOOD POINTS.

[truthyness]

I''m sure White Male Sexist love Obama right now.

Maybe Uncle Tom...er, Barack, will bend over for them too.

[one-american]

"Many leftists learn nothing, know nothing, and propel themselves not with practical wisdom, but with outrage and contempt and a desire to punish those who do not agree with them."

No truer words were ever written - Liberals constantly and consistently demonstrate the absolute truth of this statement. From the liberal media, to the liberal-run Universities, to the liberal politicians, and to the liberal sheep who follow these blind and foolish children.

[samthetvcat]

---"though I don''''t agree with everything in this article, it does make some VERY GOOD POINTS."---
Posted by TiredoftheBS

It does? :o

[tiredofthebs]

Evening/Morning TVCat .......


I don''t think we will EVER agree on much, so let''s at least agree to respect one another''s right to have a different opinion and be civil towards one another.

[samthetvcat]

---"No truer words were ever written - Liberals constantly and consistently demonstrate the absolute truth of this statement. From the liberal media, to the liberal-run Universities, to the liberal politicians, and to the liberal sheep who follow these blind and foolish children."---
Posted by One-American

Ooh, it must suck to realize your party''s backed a doofus who''s turned the Repub brand into tainted dog food :p

Dems 08

[samthetvcat]

---"I don''t think we will EVER agree on much, so let''s at least agree to respect one another''''s right to have a different opinion and be civil towards one another."---
Posted by TiredoftheBS

Okay, that sounds good :)

[truthyness]

Vote for a REAL AMERICAN!!!

If not Hillary, then John McCain

[incog-nito]

McCain in 2012: Iraq still in quagmire. War with Iran and who knows who else. Job loss due to outsourcing and off-shoring continues unabated. NAFTA superhighway. Amnesty. Gas at $12/gal. Health care costs continue to skyrocket, partly due to McCain''s hare-brained individual health care plan. McCain''s solution to everything? The "free market" (translation: do nothing).

In other words, just extrapolate Bush''s current course and you get the idea.

[whatithink-2009]

truthyness,

You save your posts so after you come down from being high, you''ll see how ridiculous you sound.

[whatithink-2009]

TiredoftheBS,

No, I see it for what it calls itself...An Opinion.

I know those who watch Faux News regularly wouldn''t know the difference between a fact and an opinion even it is was written at the top of the article.

[tigerspaw27]

Okay Mr. Michael Novak, our family has one life given to this war in Iraq and so have 4,000 other American families. Since you have such much courage and bold talk. Offer up your son, daughter, nephew, or cousins to your belief. Until then, I think you should think about what you are saying before you commit other lives. Mr. Obama understands this. It''s not appeasement but respect and common sense. Ball''s in your court.