New Cyclone Forming Off Myanmar Coast

New Threat Looms As Victims Remain At Risk; Junta Says It's Under Control, No Help Needed

(CBS/AP)  The U.N. says another cyclone in forming near Myanmar, which was devastated by a killer storm less than two weeks ago.

U.N. spokeswoman Amanda Pitts couldn't say where the landfall would be or when it would become a full-fledged cyclone. She told reporters Wednesday that "the chances of it (cyclone) happening is good... This is terrible."

She said the information about the possible cyclone came from the Joint Typhoon Warning center, which is part of the U.N.'s World Meteorological Center.

The center said on its Web site that "the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good."

It said "the circulation center (of the storm) is currently transiting generally northwestward across the Yangon delta region of Myanmar," which refers to the Irrawaddy delta.

The May 3 cyclone, which pulverized the Irrawaddy delta, left more than 60,000 people dead or missing.

Aid agencies estimate that more than 100,000 people have died, and as many as 1.5 million are at risk of disease and other health problems caused by a lack of fresh food, water and shelter.

Despite widespread allegations that they had mishandled the rescue and relief effort, Myanmar's military rulers have apparently told the leader of neighboring Thailand that all is well, and they do not require any support personnel from outside the country.

Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej said that Myanmar's ruling junta had given him its "guarantee" Wednesday that there are no disease outbreaks and no starvation among survivors of devastating cyclone Nargis.

Samak says Myanmar's rulers do not want any foreign aid workers because they "have their own team to cope with the situation."

Samak returned Wednesday from Myanmar, where he met with Prime Minister Lt. Gen. Thein Sein.

Samak also visited a government relief center. He said: "From what I have seen I am impressed with their management."

Samak's report came a day after claims by victims and aid workers that many cyclone victims are getting spoiled food from Myanmar's junta instead of the high-quality supplies being delivered by foreign governments and charities.

A longtime foreign resident of Myanmar's biggest city, Yangon, told The Associated Press in Bangkok by telephone that angry government officials have complained to him about the military misappropriating aid.

He said the officials told him that quantities of the high-energy biscuits rushed in on the World Food Program's first flights were sent to a military warehouse.

They were exchanged by what the officials said were "tasteless and low-quality" biscuits produced by the Industry Ministry to be handed out to cyclone victims, the foreign resident said.

He spoke on condition of anonymity because identifying himself could jeopardize his safety.

He said it was not known if the high quality food was being sold on the black market or consumed by the military.

A government spokesman did not immediately respond to an e-mailed query from the AP seeking a comment. The allegations were impossible to confirm independently because of the massive restrictions imposed by the junta on journalists.

The military - which has ruled the country with an iron fist since 1962 - has taken control of most aid sent by other countries including the United States, which made its first aid delivery Monday and sent in another cargo plane Tuesday with 19,900 pounds of blankets, water and mosquito netting. A third flight was to take in a 24,750-pound load. U.S. Marine Lt. Col. Douglas Powell said that the situation remained fluid, but that flights were expected to continue after Tuesday - which appears to broaden the original agreement for three flights on Monday and Tuesday.

State television said the death toll had gone up by 2,335 to 34,273, and the number of missing stood at 27,838 after many of those listed as missing were accounted for.

The United Nations says the actual death toll could be between 62,000 and 100,000.

State television said navy commander in chief Rear Adm. Soe Thein told Adm. Timothy J. Keating, commander of the U.S. Pacific Forces, that basic needs of the storm victims are being fulfilled and that "skillful humanitarian workers are not necessary."

The U.N. said that the World Food Program is getting in 20 percent of the food needed because of bottlenecks, logistics problems and government-imposed restrictions.

CARE Australia's country director in Myanmar, Brian Agland, said members of his local staff brought back some of the rotting rice that's being distributed in the devastated Irawaddy Delta.

"I have a small sample in my pocket, and it's some of the poorest quality rice we've seen," he said. "It's affected by salt water and it's very old."

It's unclear whether the rice, which is dark gray in color and consists of very small grains, is coming from the government or from mills in the area or warehouses hit by the cyclone.

"Certainly, we are concerned that (poor quality rice) is being distributed," Agland said by telephone from Yangon. "The level of nutrition is very low."

Many survivors also said they were either not getting any aid or were being handed rotten, moldy rice.

"There is obviously still a lot of frustration that this aid effort hasn't picked up pace" 10 days after the cyclone hit, said Richard Horsey, the spokesman for the U.N. humanitarian operation in Bangkok, the capital of neighboring Thailand.

Still, the WFP said it had not heard of its supplies disappearing.

"We've had no reports whatsoever about any incidents of this kind," Marcus Prior, a WFP spokesman, said in Bangkok.

Cyclone Nargis devastated the delta on May 2-3, leaving about 62,000 people dead or missing according to the government count. The U.N. has suggested the death toll is likely to be more than 100,000.

With their homes washed away and large tracts of land under water, some 2 million survivors, mostly poor rice farmers, are living in abject misery, facing disease and starvation.

The survivors are packed into Buddhist monasteries or camping in the open, drinking water contaminated by fecal matter, with dead bodies and animal carcasses floating around. Food and medicine are scarce.

The foreign resident also said several businessmen have been told to give the government cash donations of no less than $1,800 each to aid cyclone victims.

Companies involved have included jade mining concerns in Hpakant, restaurants and construction companies in Yangon, he said.

The government has also barred nearly all foreigners experienced in managing such catastrophes from going to the delta west of Yangon, and is expelling those who have managed to go in.

Jean-Sebastien Matte, an emergency coordinator with Doctors Without Borders, said his foreign staff have repeatedly been forced to return to Yangon from the delta.

Armed police checkpoints were set up outside Yangon on the roads to the delta, and all foreigners were being sent back by policemen who took down their names and passport numbers.

"No foreigners allowed," a policeman said Tuesday after waving a car back.

Yangon was pounded by heavy rain Monday and more downpours were expected throughout the week, further hindering aid deliveries.

For many, the rainwater was the only source of clean drinking water.

European Union nations appealed to Myanmar's military leaders Tuesday to let in international aid to cyclone victims, saying that failing to do so could amount to a crime against humanity.

"At this moment the most important objective is to get the humanitarian aid inside the country. There are many people that are suffering and therefore to help them ... we have to use all the means to help those people," EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana told reporters ahead of special EU talks meant to coordinate aid efforts for Myanmar.

[on_alert247]

Al2008,
You actually need a negative PDO or cool phase (colder than normal equatorial pacific ocean temperatures) with less El Nino''s to increase the global cyclone occurrence. This is based on historical climate data. Problem is the global warming climate models predict more El Nino''s, higher ocean temperatures and more hurricanes. Which do you believe, the climate history or our best attempt at a physical model of the climate?

[nyeinc]

Foreign Ministers from 10 Southeast Asian nations will meet in Singapore on Monday to discuss ways to help Myanmar, following Cyclone Nargis which is feared to have killed as many as 100,000. (Saeed Azhar, Reuters, Singapore, edited by David Fox, May 15, 2008) In addition to the material and logistic help from ASEAN, Burma should make two political requests: one multilaterally and another bilaterally.

Burma should request ASEAN to issue a statement calling for U.S to withdraw its warships hovering near Burmese maritime territory.

Burma should request THAILAND to cancel its annual joint military exercise with U.S.

[nyeinc]

Four Right Choices of Burmese Military Government: One More to Go

The current Burmese military government has made FOUR right decisions which will be remembered as corner stones of their legacy for 20 years in power.

The first is its decisions to get and maintain the cease-fire agreements with all (possible) armed ethnic groups.

The second is its decision to move the capital to further inland.

The third is its decision to hold constitutional referendum on May 10, 2008 throughout the country except the 47 townships the Cyclone Nagris severely ravaged.

The fourth is its decision to reject any foreign troops entering Burma even in the context of cyclone relief operations.

The first and the second decisions have been proven to be beneficial to Burma and her people. So will the third and the fourth.

The Burmese military government should stand by its four decisions.

The Burmese military needs to do only one more decision to establish its historical legacy: take the risk and transfer the state power to a civilian president chosen by the majority of 664 members of parliament, 166 appointed and 498 elected in 2010 elections.

May God Bless Burma!

[al2008-2009]

I*m appalled at the administration*s lack of response to the global warming hurricanes, and cyclones as well. We have no comprehensive strategy in place whatsoever, let alone a detailed plan of action to mitigate the effects of these cyclones, and mother earth continues to suffer while the administration refuses to go forward and do what*s right for mother earth.
.
How long must we sit idly by while our mother continues to suffer from the warming taking place at a feverish pace? How long must our mother suffer before we have proper c02 taxes put into place? How long must the destruction of mother earth take place before we finally put responsible plans into action? How long must we wait until we beef up our corn ethanol production? At least Obama wants to cut c02 pollution by 80%; he is definitely our best hope.
.
We the people call upon our leaders to implement a comprehensive antiglobal warming strategy at once and work in coordination with state and federal officials; these cyclones and storms continue to worsen and the quicker we stop the warming the sooner we will see these storms cease. We need action now.

[nyeinc]

Those who want to help Burma might think that the higher death toll the media reports, the larger amount of international humanitarian assistance comes in. [Those who want to corner Burmese military government might think that the higher death toll the media reports, the more pressure piles up on the military government.] But it is very short-sighted and ugly to do so. So, please beware of the numbers you cite to make a judgment, be it to donate, be it to blame anyone.
I said so because I smell trouble with very high death toll. I will figure out why, hopefully soon. Those who estimated higher casualties caused by Cyclone in Burma should take responsibility for their own estimates. The blame shouldn%u2019t fall onto the Burmese military government that will lose the popularity contest anyway (even to President Bush).

[nyeinc]

Even without inflating their figures, some are already inclined to allege that the undemocratic, Burmese military government might inflate the death toll in order to attract the international humanitarian aid. Its past behavior during Tsunami would vouch for its character and, I hope, would calm your concerns a bit. Since the earthquake causing Tsunami shakes in the east-west direction and Burma is located to the north far enough, the death toll wasn%u2019t high. The Burmese military government said so and kept its hands away from billion-dollar aid packages.
As far as I know, Villarosa got her numbers from a politician of a party opposing the Burmese military regime. Another possible source is WFP local staff, who estimated the death toll to be around 50,000 after visiting a devastated town. It doesn%u2019t mean that their numbers are wrong. It doesn%u2019t mean that their numbers are impossible. It only means that they will have to take responsibility for their own figures.
%u201CThe Red Cross said it arrived at the figure by pooling and extrapolating assessments by 22 other aid groups and organizations in 58 townships. The total affected population is estimated to be between 1.6 million and 2.5 million, it said.%u201D (Associated Press, May 14, 2008 via USA Today) Pooling and extrapolating figures are OK for the figures of cyclone-affected population. It would be too error prone to estimate the death toll. The body count is the best and most substantiated way.

[nyeinc]

According to the official accounts -- as of 5:47 p.m. New York Time, May 13, 2008 %u2013 38,491 people died and 27,838 people are missing. (An increase in the number of deaths without a decrease in the number of the missing from the earlier count indicates that some 4,000 people might have died from the events beyond the earlier figures covered.)

It is Shari Villarosa, the top U.S diplomat in Burma, who first estimated the death toll to be around 100,000. U.N. humanitarian chief John Holmes [followed Villarosa%u2019s counts and] also reported the same number for the affected population. He said the death toll could be "in the region of 100,000 or even more.%u201D (Associated Press, Rangoon, Burma, Red Cross: Burma cyclone death toll could go up to 128K, May 14, 2008 via USA Today) Red Cross gave its number around 128,000 deaths. (Associated Press, Rangoon, Burma, Red Cross: Burma cyclone death toll could go up to 128K, May 14, 2008 via USA Today) Sam Worthington %u2026 said %u2026 that the number of dead could be as high as 200,000. (Amy Kazmin and Colum Lynch, Washington Post Foreign Service, May 13, 2008; Page A11)
So, if the death toll isn%u2019t as high as 200,000 or even 100,000 and you make your donation because 200,000 died NOT because 38,000 people died, you should blame Shari Villarosa, John Holmes, Sam Worthington or Red Cross, certainly NOT the Burmese military government.

[petro49l]

When will Rangoon learn about the Katrina Disaster? Those homosexuals at FEMA completely mismanaged a major hurricane. The victims need emergency relief. Remember that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit that area about the same time.

[upisup]

Hurricanes and Cyclons aren''t really bad things. Whats bad is that people aren''t warned about''em. But Hurricanes and Cyclons are really a thing the world has been doing for a long time. A part of nature.. Like superdelegates.

[upisup]

It''d make fer a great scifi story. Wouldn''t it? Kinda like that movie with Micheal Douglas in the Star Chamber. Only instead of judges, its rich people.. with a weather machine that.. lets them manipulate economies.

[upisup]

Ya know, back in the days of the cold war there was talk of the Soviet Union working on a weather machine. Maybe thats why these status quo people are so cocky.

[briannorwood]

nyeinc:

You and your stinking government are insane. That your lust for power in that god-forsaken country supercedes the need to help your poor suffering people is an insult on humanity!

So keep your stupid propaganda to yourself you ignorant sycophant!

[nyeinc]

Part IV: A Simple Decision Can Make Millions Happy

Television images show that the officials are leading the cyclone relief efforts and going to the frontline. They failed to balance their time and energy with the decision making and overseeing. They need to spend a lot more time in decision making given the very centralized system they have). Of course, if they don%u2019t go the frontline, they will be criticized by their opponents for doing NOTHING. Even now that their images at the frontline appear in media everyday, they get criticized doing so for media show. Why do they allocate so much time and energy at the frontline? They are SIMPLY reacting strongly to their predecessors%u2019 fault and moving to the other extreme. The late dictator Ne Win was criticized for and faulted for NOT going to the frontline and knowing the reality on the ground.

What is the immediate cure for that? They will have to make their relief operations in parallel, and adapt their efforts to the needs of the local population. If they don%u2019t want to decentralized the decision making process, they will have to make a new balance of their time and energy between the desk decision making and the frontline overseeing.

The biological survival is NOT the only game in town. Different people in different places need different kinds of help. There are people who need to rebuild their homes. There are people who need to rebuild their economy. So, different kinds of help should be on the way.

[nyeinc]

Part III: A Simple Decision Can Make Millions Happy

If all the areas are equally affected by the cyclone, their plan works. But such is NOT the case. Some localities are more severely affected by others. That implies that, while they are only embarked on the first stage operations, the population in the less-affected areas feels neglected and unhelped. Yes, as BBC reporter mentioned, %u201Ccommunities relatively close to the capital that haven%u2019t received any assistance at all. They are not in the eminent danger of dying.%u201D (BBC News Online, BBC Reporter on Improvement in Aid Situation, May 13, 2008) Certainly %u201Cthey are desperately, desperately, in need of help.%u201D

Why can%u2019t the government start their relief operations in parallel, not sequentially? For two reasons, even the relief operations are centralized. Secondly, they create a priority list in their mind, the first, second and third stages, missing one big thing: the cyclone affects the different localities differently and they need to engage in the different relief operations in different localities. How do I know that they are not engaging in the different relief operations in different localities in addition to the complaints from the folks in some areas, BBC reporter and my inferences of the local knowledge?

[nyeinc]

Part II: A Simple Decision Can Make Millions Happy

Knowing my folks as they are and knowing how good they are at their own survival, I am NOT worried too much about drinking water, sanitation and the potential tragedies that can result. I was more concerned about their ability to go back onto their feet. They need a jump-start help from others. For survival, they can manage on their own as they had always done before the cyclone. However, they will need the outside help to rebuild their house and to rebuild their economic life. Look at the images of my folks sitting or standing at their home or temporary shelter when their pictures are taken; it doesn%u2019t look like that they are in eminent danger but apparently lost and don%u2019t know how to restart their life. Outside help appears to be lacking there; that is why some are complaining, especially in Yangon and the surrounding area, where the foreign media and journalists can access more readily and filing their reports. Why so?

Among many other things, our government has a strategy of sequential cyclone relief operations: at the 1st stage, they do the search and rescue operations, distribution of medical supplies and food, providing temporary shelter. At the 2nd stage, they plan to provide the permanent shelter and the 3rd stage is to help the cyclone victims with their economic survival. (The Mirror, Burmese Edition, May 12, 2008) It sounds good and planned, right? They are ONLY in the first stage.

[nyeinc]

Part I: A Simple Decision Can Make Millions Happy

Quite a number of Burmese people are telling the foreign media that they have NOT received any help. The Burmese military government has been claiming that they have delivered help and covered all the cyclone-affected areas. What causes the gap in the two versions of the same events?

It depends on who (from what region) is talking to the foreign media and it is partly attributable to the government%u2019s strategy of conducting relief operations in three stages (The Mirror and The New Light of Myanmar, Burmese Language edition, May 12, 2008)

The government%u2019s relief efforts (and probably the international relief organizations%u2019 as well) are concentrated in the delta, particularly several townships where the death toll is very high. The Yangon and the surrounding area, though the storm passed through, are not in the priority list because of their relatively lower causality rate. The report of a BBC reporter at the frontline seems to confirm this. He files his audio report in the BBC News online as follows: Now, we are in the second week since the cyclone strike; as far as we are concerned, as far as the things we have seen, there are communities relatively close to the capital that haven%u2019t received any assistance at all. Now they are not in the eminent danger of dying but they are desperately, desperately, in need of help. (BBC News Online, BBC Reporter on Improvement in Aid Situation, May 13, 2008)

[nyeinc]

An interview excerpt from BBC Burmese Evening Program might provide another possible explanation on the rotten rice. (May 13, 2008, broadcast time 06:35 to 07:02 ) As for [rotten] rice, we don%u2019t know for certain where it comes from: the rice distributed from the local authorities or from the individual donors. Some ships sank in the area with rice in it. So, the rice merchants, when they found out that their rice is wet and they can no longer sell it, they judge that it is better to distribute the [wet] rice to the cyclone victims in the vicinity immediately. Thus, the people in the nearby villages got the [wet] rice. Since they have nothing else to eat, they [cooked it and] ate it. Some children might get stomachache or diarrhea.

[nyeinc]

IF the rotten rice (or even rice quality lower than the purchased grad) were really distributed to the cyclone victims, accountability will NOT be difficult this time. The rice (20,000 tons) was purchased only from single source so that the sellers cannot point finger each other when the problems like this arise. In such cases, the local businesswoman who sold 20,000 tons of rice to the government will be held accountable. If the middlemen (township or village/ward authorities) are abusing the relief materials, it would be so EASY to hold them accountable that I don%u2019t even want to comment on this. The top government leaders do not have a hand on the abuse business partly because they normally don%u2019t have direct control over the relief materials and partly because there are too few people at the top and too many eyes watching.

[nyeinc]

CARE Australia''s country director in Myanmar, Brian Agland, reported problems with some rice going to survivors. He said members of his local staff brought back samples of rotting rice that was being distributed in the Irrawaddy delta. "I have a small sample in my pocket, and it''s some of the poorest quality rice we''ve seen," he said. "It''s affected by salt water and it''s very old." It was unclear whether the rice, which Agland described as dark gray in color and consisting of very small grains, had come from the government or from mills or warehouses in the delta. "Certainly, we are concerned that (poor quality rice) is being distributed," Agland said by telephone from Yangon. "The level of nutrition is very low." (Associated Press, Myanmar Police Block Aid Workers, May 13, 2008)
This AP wires report could be a result of a media campaign with the malicious intent, via some CARE local staff, usually regime opponents or their sympathizers, and the CARE international. However, it could also be true because its description of the rice fit with a possible scenario I outlined a few days ago right before the news of Cyclone Damage reached. Either the regime opponents are waging a MALICIOUS media campaign with the help of their state/non-state supporters and the sympathetic reporters and a biased media (biased against a non-democratic government) or the rice merchants and businesses are getting rid of their old and damaged property.

[nyeinc]

Now, the government has no rotten food to distribute simply because it is not distributing the food from its strategic reserves at all. It is buying and distributing directly from the local rice businesses. IF the rotten rice (or even rice quality lower than the purchased grad) were really distributed to the cyclone victims, accountability will NOT be difficult this time. The rice (20,000 tons) was purchased only from single source so that the sellers cannot point finger each other when the problems like this arise. In such case, the local businesswoman who sold 20,000 tons of rice to the government will be held accountable. If the middlemen (township or village/ward authorities) are abusing the relief materials, it would be so EASY to hold them accountable that I don%u2019t even want to comment on this. The top government leaders do not have a hand on the abuse business partly because they normally don%u2019t have direct control over the relief materials and partly because there are too few people at the top and too many eyes watching.
If the rotten food is NOT rice and the international food aid, then you will have to ask what is going on. With all the power the Burmese military leaders have inside Burma, they can still NOT make food rot in such a short time. I know that you guys LOVE to hate non-democratic governments. It doesn%u2019t give you a license to make false accusations with sensational headlines though.