Will House GOP Lose Deep South Seat?

Politico: Tight Special Election In Mississippi Could Be The Latest Sign That Republicans Are In Trouble In November

(Politico)  This story was written by Josh Kraushaar.

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This northeast Mississippi city, best known as Elvis Presley's birthplace, has become the site of a desperate last stand by House Republicans who want to keep their already-reeling caucus from truly being all shook up.

After losing two special elections in conservative-minded districts over the past two months, the GOP is now at risk of losing a seat in the heart of the Deep South - and is pouring all its resources into hanging on to it, including a rare campaign trail appearance by Vice President Cheney on Monday.

A third loss in Tuesday's 1st District special election would prompt new predictions of electoral doom in November, hurt the party's already flagging morale and usher in a new round of public finger-pointing among an already fractured GOP leadership.

Southern Democrats, turned off for decades by the party's liberal-leaning leaders in Washington, seem to be coming home. This special election comes one week after Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) picked up a House seat in the Baton Rouge area that Republicans had held for three decades.

"You offer Southerners a conservative Democrat on the issues and a fiscal conservative, then I think they're understanding it now," said Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.), who campaigned alongside Democratic nominee Travis Childers on Sunday. "They were fooled for about 12 years. What happened in 1994 is going to happen in reverse."

The increasingly frantic hopes of the GOP rest on Greg Davis, the mayor of the Memphis suburb of Southaven, who is running against Childers to succeed former congressman and now-Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.).

The lineup of Republican heavy hitters dispatched in the campaign's final week illustrates the stakes.

President Bush recorded an automated message sent to thousands of districtwide voters. Cheney appeared with Davis on Monday night. Popular Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour and Wicker campaigned alongside Davis.

Desperate for a win, aides at the NRCC have fired off automated calls from first lady Laura Bush, Arizona Sen. John McCain and Barbour to Mississippi voters to encourage them to turn out.

"In these closing hours, we need to go that extra mile to turn out the vote … and to remind everybody in the 1st District of what's at stake when they go into the voting booth tomorrow," Cheney said in his election-eve appearance. "What we need in Washington is a strong conservative congressman from Mississippi - not another Democrat going to bat for Nancy Pelosi."

But despite the national support - and the fact that this district is one of the safest Republican areas in the nation - Davis is finding himself facing a tougher than expected battle. Childers, a gregarious courthouse official in Prentiss County, has demonstrated widespread appeal among the district's largely rural population, and has effectively made the race a geographic referendum rather than an ideological one.

In the first round of balloting last month, Childers came within 410 votes of winning the seat outright, leading Davis 49 percent to 46 percent.

The GOP strategy has been to make the race a referendum on the national party's popularity in a district that gave Bush 62 percent of the vote in 2004. GOP ads accuse Childers of supporting higher taxes and portray him as a pawn of likely Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Childers has downplayed the national implications of the contest, instead framing the race as a geographic battle between his home base in the 20 largely rural counties in the northeast corner of Mississippi and Davis' base in the newer and fast-growing Memphis suburbs.

Childers won most of those rural areas in the first round - carrying 16 of the 24 counties overall - while Davis overwhelmingly carried his home base of DeSoto County, the most populous in the district.

Childers began Mother's Day campaigning in his hometown of Booneville - about 30 miles north of Tupelo - where he dined among family and dozens of well-wishers at the Outtatown Eatery. He said he knew almost every prospective voter in his home county - not a stretch, given that he won 85 percent of the vote here (in a county that gave President Bush 65 percent of the vote).

"Make no mistake, I am not concerned about the future of Memphis; I am concerned about the future of north Mississippi," Childers told a prospective voter at a Mother's Day luncheon in Tupelo. "Now, what's good for north Mississippi may also be good for Memphis, but I want everybody to know I'm squarely for these 24 counties in north Mississippi."

Interviews with voters in Tupelo suggested that the regional message appeared to be hitting a chord. Several voters who said they've long voted Republican - for Barbour, Wicker and Bush - said they blanched at the slew of negative advertisements from Davis and were supporting Childers.

[andylance1]

A conservative Democrat won the race for a GOP-held congressional seat in northern Mississippi.

A conservative Democrat is an Oxymoron.

[mcvet]

Another one bites the dust... and it wasn''t even close. Even though they poured MILLIONS into it, even though they brought in Darth, even though the Evil One sent a vid... dispite all the fascist could do, they LOST! SIEG HEIL all you BUSH Bootlickers...it''s a VERY good morning in America

[mcvet]

MCVET - Shipping jobs overseas WAS/IS a good thing- and CAN be again- Some of the people who set the ball in motion 10-15 years ago F&ed it all up- oh, that''''s right- it was the CLINTONS. BOOHOO


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Posted by jack3213 at 06:40 PM : May 13, 2008
+ report abuse

Oh PLEASE! Everyone knows who supports those trade agreements. It was McSame HIMSELF who told the good people of Michigan to get over it, the jobs were gone. It''s one thing to make a mistake, to negotiate a bad deal.. it''s altogether another to refuse to fix that mistake. Obama WILL renegotiate those agreements that has resulted in MILLIONS of American''s getting stabbed in the Back. McSame WILL NOT!

[mcvet]

It would be great to see the democrats pick up yet another seat but that is secondary to the FACT that the Fascist MUST spend valuable time and money in a state and an election that they should NOT have any problem with.

[jack3213]

MCVET - Shipping jobs overseas WAS/IS a good thing- and CAN be again- Some of the people who set the ball in motion 10-15 years ago F&ed it all up- oh, that''s right- it was the CLINTONS. BOOHOO

[kansas1946]

After losing two special elections in conservative-minded districts over the past two months, the GOP is now at risk of losing a seat in the heart of the Deep South - and is pouring all its resources into hanging on to it, including a rare campaign trail appearance by Vice President Cheney on Monday.

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Yeah, that ought to help a lot. Send down the vice-liar-in-chief to campaign for that poor schmuck. You would have had to be in a coma for that last eight years not to know how corrupt, evil, and dispicable, that the Republican party has become.

[quetzalcrist]

well, its much better to vote for Obama, than vote for a Coke Snorting, Alcoholic blackout binge drinking, womanizing, crooked low iq, having failed businessman with a famous last name......

oh wait..... 8 years of this already!!

[mcvet]

I GUESS THE DEEP SOUTH WANTS TO PAY MORE IN TAXES- DUMMIES. Other polling shows that 60% of voters believe that raising taxes is bad for the economy. Just 14% hold the opposite view. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe taxes will go up if Hillary Clinton becomes President. Fifty-one percent (51%) say an Obama Administration will lead to higher taxes and 33% expect that result from a President McCain.




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Posted by jack3213 at 12:23 PM : May 13, 2008
+ report abuse

You know what is bad for the economy?? Shipping MILLIONS of American Jobs to OTHER Countries and forcing American Workers to compete with 30 Cents a day in wages! I''ll bet the family farm if American''s were given the choice of having those good paying jobs returned in exchange for paying taxes to balance our budget they jump at the chance. What do you think???

[mcvet]

Most people won''''t be concerned about the fact that Obama has a black father--it''''s the fact his Dad was a womanizing alcoholic Muslim and not a US citizen but a citizen of the third world corrupt nation of Kenya that they will have trouble with.

but more troubling perhaps will be his Irish Momma, who is an atheist and also a bed-hopper.



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Posted by phillysage at 04:01 PM : May 13, 2008
+ report abuse

So you think we should go along with 4 more years of failure and bankruptcy because YOU don''t like Obama''s Parents? You know if you held people in the united states to the standards you hold Obama we''d have NO ONE qualified... well except the Toe Tappers and who wants to vote for them.

[dinkydog1]

Most people won''''t be concerned about the fact that Obama has a black father--it''''s the fact his Dad was a womanizing alcoholic Muslim and not a US citizen but a citizen of the third world corrupt nation of Kenya that they will have trouble with.

but more troubling perhaps will be his Irish Momma, who is an atheist and also a bed-hopper.

Posted by phillysage at 04:01 PM : May 13, 2008

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So your point is what, even though Obama is from a "bad" family he has made something of himself? The president we have now is from a "good" family but he''s a complete failure and a blithering idiot. Would you vote for him again?

[sjc_1]

I had a comment about the national and consumer debt, but it got taken off. I guess we are not allowed to speak the truth on here.

[taddles-2009]

"yeah, a republican will lose in the deep south. why do they even write such articles? are they that bored at their pc''''s?

Posted by ccfsdca at 12:11 PM : May 13, 2008"


You might know the answer to your own question if you had read the article.

"This special election comes one week after Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) picked up a House seat in the Baton Rouge area that Republicans had held for three decades."

"In the first round of balloting last month, Childers came within 410 votes of winning the seat outright, leading Davis 49 percent to 46 percent."

Looks to me like a Dem is doing awfully well in Ol'' Miss. After the blowout in Baton Rouge, your "incredulous" statement is a fair bit misplaced. You need to talk to those voters in Miss and LA, they don''t seem to share your sentiment that a Dem can''t win in the south.

[jack3213]

I GUESS THE DEEP SOUTH WANTS TO PAY MORE IN TAXES- DUMMIES. Other polling shows that 60% of voters believe that raising taxes is bad for the economy. Just 14% hold the opposite view. Fifty-four percent (54%) believe taxes will go up if Hillary Clinton becomes President. Fifty-one percent (51%) say an Obama Administration will lead to higher taxes and 33% expect that result from a President McCain.

[Gary Kempf]

After losing two special elections in conservative-minded districts over the past two months, the GOP is now at risk of losing a seat in the heart of the Deep South - and is pouring all its resources into hanging on to it, including a rare campaign trail appearance by Vice President Cheney on Monday.

Yea, Cheney to gather support, That is pure lame desperation. The poster child of corporate corruption, seven years of scr*wing the Working class of Ole Miss. Sent in to rally the ole Republican votes. If that doesn''t convince the people to bale on the Republican party. Nothing will.....