May 13, 2008
Lackluster Support For Obama In Appalachia
Politico: Ill. Senator's Support In The Region Low Compared To Heavily Favored Clinton Campaign
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Democratic strategists chalk up Sen. Barack Obama’s D-Ill. problems in the region to several factors, says The Politico. (AP Photo/Don Ryan)
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The current high spirits in the Barack Obama campaign could be tempered in coming weeks when West Virginia and Kentucky voters render their verdict on the Democratic race.
And it’s not just that Hillary Rodham Clinton is heavily favored to win both states - but more than that they could further underline Obama’s lackluster support in Appalachia, a region that is ground zero for the sort of populist Reagan Democrats both parties will covet in the fall.
As Clinton noted this week, Obama’s lagging vote totals among white, working class voters in broad swaths of culturally conservative territory continue to feed doubts about his ability to expand his electoral base in Appalachia - a region which, according to one’s definition, can stretch from the cornfields of western New York all the way through the deltas of northern Mississippi.
That’s territory that includes states - Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia - that will be key to a Democratic victory in November. And some Democrats are already worried that John McCain is poised to scoop up crucial votes in the region if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
“McCain’s going to camp on the Pennsylvania-Ohio border” in Appalachian regions, said Democratic strategist Dave “Mudcat” Saunders, of Roanoke, Va. “He knows if he wins those states he can’t lose.”
Obama has consistently come up short in Appalachia, even when he was romping to victory nearby. Consider Obama’s 14-point victory in North Carolina on Tuesday, when he still soundly lost a series of counties near the Tennessee border, including Cherokee, Clay and Graham.
Clinton’s strong performance in the Appalachian region’s 11th Congressional District caused Rep. Heath Shuler, a North Carolina superdelegate, to throw his support behind the New York senator’s flagging campaign.
Virginia, another strong Obama primary state, also delivered the majority of its rural Appalachian votes to Clinton. In the Feb. 5 contest, Clinton overwhelmingly won a series of counties nestled in the state’s southwest corner between West Virginia, Tennessee and North Carolina.
The numbers were similar in Ohio on March 4. Except for Cincinnati-based Hamilton County, every county along the Ohio River went for Clinton, often by over 70 percent. The Appalachian portion of Pennsylvania was equally strong for Clinton when she won statewide on April 22. Washington, Greene and Fayette counties, each along the Ohio or West Virginia state lines, each gave at least 71 percent of its vote to Clinton.
Democratic strategists chalk up Obama’s problems in the region to several factors. His race, many say privately, is clearly an obstacle in the predominately white region, as is an elitist image both the Clinton and McCain camps have worked hard to stamp him with.
But Obama’s Appalachian struggles do not faze supporters such as Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.), even though Clinton won his district by an almost 2-to-1 margin.
Boucher suggested voters in his largely rural southwest Virginia district would ultimately gravitate to Obama’s message of economic development, telemedicine to expand health care, federal support for water infrastructure projects, and broadband development to provide expanded Internet service and attract high tech jobs.
“It’s a challenging region for Democratic presidential candidates under all circumstances,” Boucher said. “But I am absolutely confident that he will be even stronger than Sen. Clinton was in contending for the votes of rural voters.”
In the general election, “I do not anticipate a defection of Democratic voters away from Sen. Obama and to the Republicans,” Boucher sid. “Sen. Obama has special qualities that will enable him to be more competitive” than previous Democratic nominees Al Gore and John F. Kerry, both of whom came up short in Boucher’s 9th District and statewide.
Democratic strategist Saunders, who worked for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards’ presidential campaigns and helped propel Democrat Mark Warner into the Virginia governor’s mansion, said emphasis on issues over rhetorical style would be key for Obama.
“What people don’t understand about Appalachia is that we’ve heard all this ‘hope’ and ‘change’ stuff since the English kicked the Scotch-Irish out in the 1700s. We’re ‘hoped’ out. Nothing ever changes out here. He’s got to come with some solid policies.”
Rep. Nick J. Rahall, the longtime Democratic congressman from southern West Virginia, said Obama was a lot closer to Appalachia voters than might be apparent on the surface. After all, sections of central and southern Illinois bear a striking resemblance to much of Appalachia.
“Sen. Obama is from a coal state. Sen. Obama is for using coal in an environmentally sound manner. Sen. Obama’s familiar with these technologies,” Rahall said.
Moreover, the prolonged Democratic primary fight with Clinton has made rural voters more comfortable with Obama, Rahall said. That was on display in the Indiana primary this week, which Obama lost by a narrower margin than many had expected, and in which he kept down Clinton’s vote totals in some Ohio River counties.
“With each succeeding primary election, as Sen. Obama becomes more toughened, he will continue to improve,” Rahall said. Locals will “recognize that he is more attached to their issues than John McBush - I mean McCain.”
Questions over what factor Obama’s race will play in Appalachian voters’ decisions were brought into stark relief this week with Clinton’s comments about “white Americans” backing her over Obama. It’s a highly sensitive issue that is difficult to measure in polls and surveys, but also a reality Obama clearly must address.
“The South has changed a lot, but not that much,” Gary Pearce, a Democratic consultant in Raleigh, N.C., said of his state and surrounding areas.
But racial questions can be mitigated.
“The way he can change things is to increase the electorate - attract young people and independents,” Pearce said.
North Carolina, considered a safe Republican state in November, will be a good test of Obama’s message.
“There are some Democrats that think instead of getting 42 percent [about the average vote totals of Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004], he can get 47 percent,” Pearce said. “Four years from now, a lot of people think this could be a battleground state, with a rapidly growing, highly educated, more professional” populace.
Phillip J. Ardoin, political science professor at Appalachian State University in Boone, N.C., said Obama’s party affiliation, much more than his race, may be his undoing in parts of Appalachia.
“Religion plays a big role in this area of the state among white voters, and I am constantly surprised how many white social conservative voters continue to believe only the Republican Party can represent the interests of ‘Christians,’" Ardoin said. “The e-mails going around which question Obama’s religious views and patriotism have been popular and, I think, effective.”
And perhaps most daunting for Obama, not all of the concerns comes from expected quarters. Some Democrats who have backed Clinton in the primaries may very well give the Republicans another look, said Mary Ann Kominar of Kermit, W.Va. - the wife of 14-year state Del. K. Steven Komnar. Both are Clinton supporters.
“I have to support my party. I don’t ever intend to let my party down. But a lot of people are saying ‘McCain looks better every day,’” said Kominar, who lives in Mingo County, W.Va., just across the Kentucky state line.
“I’m opposed to Obama because of his religious beliefs. I believe Rev. [Jeremiah] Wright told me a whole lot,” Kominar said, echoing familiar Republican talking points. “The fact that [Obama] doesn’t pledge allegiance to the flag, he doesn’t wear a flag pin, concern me.”
Obama simply isn’t the right kind of Democrat for the region and would lose in West Virginia just as former party standard-bearers Gore and Kerry did, she said.
“I think over the years they’ve tried to force some very liberal New Englanders down our throat - Obama’s not from New England, but he still fits that mold.”
By David Mark
Copyright 2008 POLITICO





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See all 55 CommentsRemember a vote for this rookie car salesman is a vote for WRIGHT, REZKO, AYERS, AND FARAHKHAN%u2026..OBAMA is dishonest and disgrace. He does not deserve my vote!
AT LEAST SOME PEOPLE OVER THERE HAVE THE PICTURE RIGHT, OBAMA CAN,T WIN WITHOUT THE BLUE AND WHITE COLLAR VOTERS.HE COULD SURVIVE BUT MATCHING HIM WITH MCCAIN HE IS SURE LOOSER.
What is happenning now - clintons are INCREASING it . He did not compaigned there ( almost), now she claimed - he did and aggressively. That is an example, how she is lieing all over, twisting facts and spreading other gossips.
Those rears are more likely to follow her misleading attack, easy to be manipulated.
His core is to say the truth, which is not a honey at this time. But he still does.
That is the difference. And more and more people understand that.
Election with this pair: McBush and Obama will make the deal easy without clinton''s lie and false. It would be so much easier.
clintons really are messing up all around.
People should pay attetion how carefully Obama is handling this, NEVER putting hillary down, and even now - giving her open field to get this victory in WV.
1. SHE DATED AND LOVED A BLACK MAN AT A TIME WHEN MOST WHITE FOLKS HATED BLACK MEN
2. SHE WAS A PROPHET AND SHE COULD SEE INTO THE FUTURE, SEE SAW ONE DAY THAT A MAN NAMED HUSSIEN WOULD RUN IRAQ, SO BEFORE THE WORLD HEARD OF HUSSIEN, SHE NAMED HER SON THAT TO PREPARE HIM TO BE A MUSLIM EXTREMIST. SHE ALSO AS A PROPHET NEW THAT AL QUADA WOULD ONE DAY BLOW UP THE TWIN TOWERS.
3. HIS GRANDPARENTS LOVED HIM TOO MUCH, TOLD HIM NOT TO WORRY ABOUT HIS COLOR THAT ALL THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD CAME FROM ONE GOD..WHY THEY LIE TO HIM LIKE THAT.
4. HIS PARENTS RAISED HIM SO THAT HE CAN MEET WITH AND RESPECT REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATES AND MUSLIMS AND ALL PEOPLE - THEY MESSED HIS LIFE UP, MAKING HIM THINK WHITE FOLKS WOULD ACCEPT HIM.
5. HIS MOTHER GAVE HIM GOOD HARD WORKING VALUES, HE WENT TO HARVARD AND GOT HIS DEGREE - NOW HE TOO SMART FOR BLUE COLLAR WHITE MEN - HIS MOTHER FAULT - SHE SHOULD HAVE MADE HIM A THUG INSTEAD OF A HARD WORKING MAN.
DAYUM WHITE WOMEN FOR LOVING A BLACK MEN AND HAVING HIS SON AND RAISING HIM RIGHT SO ONE DAY HE COULD TURN OUT TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT
DAYUM THEM ALL I SAY!
You are trying to attach to him other people, he knew, based on gossips, the most.
If You want to follow this direction - pay attention to Clintons Own lawsuit, that is just waiting for THEM (not their friends) to follow their dirt.
How much are you responsible for your neigbors deals? Same here.
Watch more closer clinton''s deals, than you will see so much dirt, that stomach could not stand.
Their own dirt all over they steped.
Give at least ONE fact.
That is amazing, how much you are ready to be fooled by clintons, by people, who is swiming in false all political life.
Check facts before saying anything here
1. SHE DATED AND LOVED A BLACK MAN AT A TIME WHEN MOST WHITE FOLKS HATED BLACK MEN.
2. SHE WAS A PROPHET AND SHE COULD SEE INTO THE FUTURE, SEE SAW ONE DAY THAT A MAN NAMED HUSSIEN WOULD RUN IRAQ, SO BEFORE THE WORLD HEARD OF HUSSIEN, SHE NAMED HER SON THAT TO PREPARE HIM TO BE A MUSLIM EXTREMIST. SHE ALSO AS A PROPHET NEW THAT AL QUADA WOULD ONE DAY BLOW UP THE TWIN TOWERS.
3. HIS GRANDPARENTS LOVED HIM TOO MUCH, TOLD HIM NOT TO WORRY ABOUT HIS COLOR THAT ALL THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD CAME FROM ONE GOD..WHY THEY LIE TO HIM LIKE THAT.
4. HIS PARENTS RAISED HIM SO THAT HE CAN MEET WITH AND RESPECT REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATES AND MUSLIMS AND ALL PEOPLE - THEY MESSED HIS LIFE UP, MAKING HIM THINK WHITE FOLKS WOULD ACCEPT HIM.
5. HIS MOTHER GAVE HIM GOOD HARD WORKING VALUES, HE WENT TO HARVARD AND GOT HIS DEGREE - NOW HE TOO SMART FOR BLUE COLLAR WHITE MEN - HIS MOTHER FAULT - SHE SHOULD HAVE MADE HIM A THUG INSTEAD OF A HARD WORKING MAN.
DAYUM WHITE WOMEN FOR LOVING A BLACK MEN AND HAVING HIS SON AND RAISING HIM RIGHT SO ONE DAY HE COULD TURN OUT TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT
DAYUM THEM ALL I SAY!
1. SHE DATED AND LOVED A BLACK MAN AT A TIME WHEN MOST WHITE FOLKS HATED BLACK MEN.
2. SHE WAS A PROPHET AND SHE COULD SEE INTO THE FUTURE, SEE SAW ONE DAY THAT A MAN NAMED HUSSIEN WOULD RUN IRAQ, SO BEFORE THE WORLD HEARD OF HUSSIEN, SHE NAMED HER SON THAT TO PREPARE HIM TO BE A MUSLIM EXTREMIST. SHE ALSO AS A PROPHET NEW THAT AL QUADA WOULD ONE DAY BLOW UP THE TWIN TOWERS.
3. HIS GRANDPARENTS LOVED HIM TOO MUCH, TOLD HIM NOT TO WORRY ABOUT HIS COLOR THAT ALL THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD CAME FROM ONE GOD..WHY THEY LIE TO HIM LIKE THAT.
4. HIS PARENTS RAISED HIM SO THAT HE CAN MEET WITH AND RESPECT REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATES AND MUSLIMS AND ALL PEOPLE - THEY MESSED HIS LIFE UP, MAKING HIM THINK WHITE FOLKS WOULD ACCEPT HIM.
5. HIS MOTHER GAVE HIM GOOD HARD WORKING VALUES, HE WENT TO HARVARD AND GOT HIS DEGREE - NOW HE TOO SMART FOR BLUE COLLAR WHITE MEN - HIS MOTHER FAULT - SHE SHOULD HAVE MADE HIM A THUG INSTEAD OF A HARD WORKING MAN.
DAYUM WHITE WOMEN FOR LOVING A BLACK MEN AND HAVING HIS SON AND RAISING HIM RIGHT SO ONE DAY HE COULD TURN OUT TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT
DAYUM THEM ALL I SAY!
"Nice Tooth!"
"A girl that is two steps faster than her brothers!"
Neither did I!
Interstate 79!
his race? it''s more like their racist views.
One who can afford to put two washing machines on his front porch!
The stereotype of West Virginia is far from reality. Those West Virginians have good minds, common sense and do vote. They are well-connected and know how to attract enterprise and tourists. Some best kept secrets lie in West Virginia.
I wouldn''t more having more friends from that state. A little respect goes a long way over there.
SOMEONE ALWAYS LOSES A TRAILER
BECAUSE THE CARS ARE ON BLOCKS AND THE HOUSES ARE ON WHEELS
[Posted by VoteHillary at 04:27 PM : May 13, 2008]
assuming this were true ... how is counting on college kids elitist?
WELL, NOT IN WEST VIRGINIA, ANYWAY!
yea ... this is a valid criteria for voting for a president ... unbelievable.
I''m patriotic, but I don''t have to prove it by wearing a lapel pin... the simple fact that he is running for President exemplifies his patriotism. As for his FORMER pastor. It wouldn''t matter to me if he was his current pastor. Obama respects and knows the US Constitution through and through and will uphold it with the highest sense of integrity ("Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion..."). Much more that guy who was endorsed by Bush... the current President who wipes his arse with it.
GO OBAMA!!!!
One see the clothes.
One see the color.
One see the body.
LOL
A person''s race might be a problem in Iraq, but it better not be in The United States. To suggest otherwise is unpatriotic and un-American.
Remember a vote for this rookie car salesman is a vote for WRIGHT, REZKO, AYERS, AND FARAHKHAN%u2026..OBAMA is dishonest and disgrace. This guy is a joke. PERIOD. He does not deserve my vote!
Remember a vote for this rookie car salesman is a vote for WRIGHT, REZKO, AYERS, AND FARAHKHAN%u2026..OBAMA is dishonest and disgrace. He does not deserve my vote!
Some of us remember the embarrassment and scandals the Clinton White House produced and want no part of a repeat.
So BLK keep spit''in your sshit
why?....ill tell ya.
-Webb is a reformed rep (a dem no..lol)
-he is a moderate Dem
-he is a veteran whos record matches & surpasses McSame''s.
-his son just served in Iraq
-he was opposed to the war
-he worked in Reagan''s administration (would capture reagan Dems)
-he is scotch-irish with simple upbringing & apppalachian roots
-he is pro guns
-hes a straight shooter
-hes vigorously pushing a bipartisan bill that will help veterans with their education.
Jim Webb for VP.
Once the first vote is over at the Democratic Convention, then the delegates are free to vote for the candidate who looks like she can win in the November election. Senator Clinton has a very real chance to win the nomination.
Pretty good analysis. We''ll see what will come out ...
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