Little Gain In Big Win For Clinton

Analysis: A Blowout Win Doesn't Erase Obama's Lead, Says CBSNews.com's Vaughn Ververs, But It Does Increase Dem Concerns

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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It’s telling that on the night Hillary Clinton took one more bow in the spotlight of a big win in the West Virginia primary, Barack Obama was winging his way to the state of Michigan to begin smoothing over bruised feelings in preparation for the general election. Speaking even louder was the fact that he wasn’t coming off a campaign day in the primary state but from Missouri - another fall battleground state.

Such is the state of the Democratic primary contest as it approaches the final five contests on the calendar. Clinton continues an increasingly quixotic effort to somehow gain a nomination all but beyond her grasp while Obama runs a parallel campaign aimed a reinforcing the inevitability of his nomination and uniting the party while at the same time gearing up for the campaign to come.

While Clinton’s decisive West Virginia win doesn’t wipe out that dynamic or change the overall direction of a race that is lurching toward an end, it won’t help Obama with that second part of his task. And there are continuing signs which, if not a threat to his ability to win the nomination, can’t be comforting for him or his party.

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West Virginia Results

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The split within the Democratic Party reached new highs Tuesday. According to CBS News exit polls, 74 percent of Clinton voters said they would be dissatisfied with Obama as the nominee. While that number has grown in recent contests, it represents the highest yet. In Indiana a week ago where Clinton won a tight contest, 62 percent of her voters said they would not be satisfied with Obama.

More troubling for Democrats in the general election, 59 percent of Clinton’s voters in West Virginia said they would either vote for John McCain in November or sit out the election altogether. And 61 percent said she would have the best chance to defeat McCain. The state, and its five Electoral Votes, has gone with the winner in the last four presidential elections. (Click here to see the full exit poll data.)

Clinton has argued that despite Obama’s overall lead in delegates won, in the popular vote and in endorsements from the party’s superdelegates, she appeals to a broader coalition for the general election. “I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," Clinton said in an interview earlier this week in which she singled out “white Americans” and insisted there is “a pattern emerging here.”

It’s a pattern Clinton may tempted to point to again after West Virginia, where she won 69 percent of the white vote on her way to a huge victory. But there are several factors that should dampen the urge to draw large conclusions about the meaning of the results. The makeup of the primary electorate could hardly have been better for her with large numbers of the kinds of voters that have made up her coalition throughout the process: women, whites, older voters, those at lower-income levels and those with less than a college education.

The Clinton name is well-remembered in a state the former president carried twice and Obama spent only a token amount of time and effort there, gaining some distance from a blowout loss for his otherwise surging campaign.

Even as Clinton rolled up large vote totals, she made precious little gain in the race for delegates. In the week since winning North Carolina and narrowly losing Indiana, Obama picked up the support of 27 superdelegates - nearly as many as the 28 pledged delegates at stake in West Virginia. So, despite a big win, Clinton isn’t making any headway on her delegate deficit.

Expecting a loss, the Obama campaign today rolled out a series of endorsements, the biggest of which came from former Democratic National Committee chair Roy Romer. The former Colorado governor, who had remained strictly on the sidelines throughout the primary campaigns, gave voice to something many party leaders have said in recent days. “The math is controlling,” Romer told reporters. “This race I believe is over, Senator Obama has accumulated a lead in delegates chosen by primaries, caucuses and superdelegates that cannot be overcome.”

Romer, like most all Obama supporters, was quick to insist that nobody is pushing or bullying Clinton to get out of this race. Any suggestion of that could cause more damage to Obama’s November prospects than an embarrassing loss in West Virginia. So sensitive to that dynamic is the campaign that Obama himself left a congratulatory message for Clinton Tuesday evening, according to CBS News.

And what does Clinton want in this endgame? It’s one of the remaining mystery of the primary campaign. Does she want to remain a viable option for Democratic leaders in case Obama stumbles on the way to Denver in August? Is she seeking some influence over specific policies or even the opportunity to continue the campaign as Obama’s running mate?

In her victory speech Tuesday night, Clinton insisted she remained in the race to win and made a direct plea to the party leaders who will eventually decide this race, saying, “I am in this race because I believe I’m the strongest candidate.” No doubt she and her campaign will find plenty of evidence in the West Virginia results to press that case - but no mathematical evidence that would make it easy for those superdelegates to overturn Obama’s lead.

The campaign turns next to Kentucky, where Clinton is expected to do well and Oregon, where Obama is favored. Even a split decision in those states next Tuesday will likely give Obama a majority of the pledged delegates up for grabs this year and perhaps give him a chance to claim victory. But like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and other states before it, West Virginia raised more questions about his ability to win among the white, blue-collar voters who’ve kept Clinton in this race. Questions he’ll need to find ways to answer as he turns his attention to the November race against John McCain.

[david1737]

Many of the Obama haters are neocons anyway.

Let''s rise above the hate and vote for the Democratic Nominee, whoever that turns out to be.

I like Obama, but will vote Hillary with a smile on my face.

[deaconwayne2]

It is amazing that the Pundant''s are all on the same page, when they feel that because you are not educated or make a certain amount of money that Senator Obama will not get their votes. Ah! lets think this through,ordininary ''FOLK'' don''t want health care, pay less taxes, reduce unemployment,get their family back home from war?! So these folks will not vote because these issues don''t exist and these regular FOLK just would rather vote for the Republican candidate and shoot themselves in the foot and say ITS ALL GOOD. You punDITS need to stop disrespecting the American People. Again it amazes me that you don''t even challenge each other on this issue. This is my first REAL surprise at you guys, its ok to play news politics with the candidates, but the American people DESERVES BETTER!!

[vermonter52]

The majority of the people posting here don''t sound intelligent enough to know the right candidate if they saw one. I doubt you could even state what your candidate can really do for you if elected. Change? Well what kind of change are you expecting. Experience and intelligence? Look a the real records of the people, neither of them are pure....and neither are any of you. So judge them fairly as you would want to be.

[rufisgufis]

HER JUDGMENT IS TOO POOR TO BE THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF.

[rufisgufis]

Hillary Clinton assisted George Bush in bringing us the Iraq war resulting in the death of over 4000 American personnel.

Hillary Clinton voted to adopt the resolution to declare
Iran a "terrorist organization" thereby enabling Bush to invade Iran.

Hillary spoke of "obliterating" Iran.

Hillary always speaks of herself as being a fighter, when what we need is a statesman. We need someone who will want to negotiate, compromise. Hillary is not the person with the judgment necessary to take take the office of commander in chief - "from day one," or from any other time.

[rufisgufis]

Media Bias again??

No Problem! Hillary and the people are bigger than the media and the people who own them.
_______________________

Not bigger than the delegates who decide the winner!

[rufisgufis]

DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS - TAKE NOTICE

-----------ROE v. WADE-----------

Two of the current justices of the United States Supreme Court will probably retire within the next four years. One is 75 and the other is 84. This will give the new president the ability to nominate two new justices. If McCain is elected you can be sure the new justices will be just like Roberts, Scalia and Thomas: willing to overturn ROE v. WADE. So think when you vote!!!

[truthyness]

Media Bias again??

No Problem! Hillary and the people are bigger than the media and the people who own them.

[rufisgufis]

WV results are just another empirical proof that the Obscure Prophet is not selling his cookies to white folks!

Posted by trace-sc at 09:14 PM : May 14, 2008
________________

You need to crawl back into that hole you crawled into 50 years ago. This is a new world; you no longer have an advantage just because you''re white. In this day and age you have to earn what you get.

[trace-sc]

WV results are just another empirical proof that the Obscure Prophet is not selling his cookies to white folks!

[rufisgufis]

Who in dere rite mind be wantin a useless ol woman for president. Posing dere really be a 3am call an Hillary be having a PMS fit or some other femine stuff, den what. It won''t work. She be married and her husband he be old too. Posing he be needing something and she aint around. Maybe he want her to run an errand or fetch something for him. Den what, he have to get the stuff fore hisself?

[rufisgufis]

If Hillary still believe she has a chance; she must be delusional. Any rational person can see the results from here.

[bajaan]

again rufis, no disrespect intended - and I''''m impressed with your history (honestly)

all I''''m sayin'' is different era, different circumstances, different war-fare/area/tactics, less people and fewer issues to deal with...that''''s all...

Posted by sbbm at 07:14 PM : May 14, 2008
_______________

If we are lucky, we learn from history. If not, history tends to repeat itself.

[bajaan]

ANYONE HAVE ANY JELLY? HILLARY IS TOAST!!

[rufisgufis]

ERRATA:

TODAY''S SCORE:

HILLARY: ONE NEW SUPER DELEGATE, NINE DELEGATES

OBAMA: FIVE NEW SUPER DELEGATES, 25 DELEGATES
____________________________

correction:

HILLARY; ONE NEW SUPER DELEGATE - 20 DELEGATES

OBAMA: FIVE NEW SUPER DELEGATES - 18 DELEGATES

The 18 Delegates are courtesy of John Edwards.

[rufisgufis]

ERRATA:

TODAY''S SCORE:

HILLARY: ONE NEW SUPER DELEGATE, NINE DELEGATES

OBAMA: FIVE NEW SUPER DELEGATES, 25 DELEGATES
____________________________

correction:
HILLARY; ONE NEW SUPER DELEGATE - 20 DELEGATES

OBAMA: FIVE NEW SUPER DELEGATES - 18 DELEGATES

The 18 Delegates are courtesy of John Edwards.

[rufisgufis]

TODAY''S SCORE:

HILLARY: ONE NEW SUPER DELEGATE, NINE DELEGATES

OBAMA: FIVE NEW SUPER DELEGATES, 25 DELEGATES

[lefeaoux]

From the mouth of a Revered BLACK MAN! You MUST watch this video if you support Hussein Obama!!!

http://www.youtube.com/user/ATLAHWorldwide



Another must see for Hussein Obama supporters!

http://www.eyeblast.tv/Public/Video.aspx?rsrcID=2036

[rufisgufis]

LeFeaoux

SCREW YOU

[lefeaoux]

Really? I bet more than you think are watching it!!! Why won''t you watch it ... afraid of a little education?

From the mouth of a Revered BLACK MAN! You MUST watch this video if you support Hussein Obama!!!

http://www.youtube.com/user/ATLAHWorldwide



Another must see for Hussein Obama supporters!

http://www.eyeblast.tv/Public/Video.aspx?rsrcID=2036