Are Republicans Gloomy For Good Reason?

Weekly Standard: Prospects For Republicans In The 2008 Election Look Grim

(Weekly Standard)  This column was written by Fred Barnes.

---

First, the good news. Conservatives won a sweeping victory in an enormously important election the week before last. Unfortunately, it happened in England, where Boris Johnson won the race for mayor of London and Conservatives trounced Labour all across the country. Now, the bad news. Prospects for Republicans in the 2008 election here at home look grim. The political environment isn't as bad as it was in 2006 when Republicans lost both houses of Congress and a lot more. But it's close.

The empirical evidence is well known. More than 80 percent of Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Democrats have steadily maintained the 10 percentage point lead in voter preference they gained two years ago. And President Bush's job performance rating is stuck in the low 30s, a level of unpopularity that weakens the Republican case for holding the White House in 2008.

There's another piece of polling data that is both intriguing and indicative. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC survey last month, John McCain fared better with Republican voters (84 percent to 8 percent) than Barack Obama did with Democrats (78 percent to 12 percent). McCain was also stronger than Obama among independent voters (46 percent to 35 percent).

These are terrific numbers for McCain. But they aren't enough. In the overall match-up, McCain trailed Obama (43 percent to 46 percent). The explanation for this seeming paradox is quite simple: The Republican base has shrunk. In 2008, there are fewer Republicans.

"It's the erosion in party affiliation that's pulling McCain down," says a Republican strategist, and it could doom his chances of winning the presidency. The strategist fears Republican leaders and McCain campaign officials "don't realize the trouble they're going to be in."

There have been some improvements in political atmospherics for Republicans. The 2006 midterm election was framed by intense voter dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq. The 2008 election won't be. The surge of American troops in Iraq hasn't turned the war into a Republican asset, but it's at least blunted it as an effective Democratic talking point.

With scandal after scandal involving House Republicans in 2006, the party became the target of voter fury. Now Democrats control Congress. "The anger against congressional Republicans isn't there," says Republican congressman Tom Davis of Virginia, who is retiring.

Davis, however, thinks Republicans have made little headway in improving their tarnished image. House minority leader John Boehner talks about fixing the Republican "brand." Davis's assessment: "We haven't done anything the last year and a half to re-do the brand." Instead, Republicans have focused on "looking out for the president."

Pollster Frank Luntz, a sharp critic of Boehner's leadership, believes the Republican image has gotten worse. "It used to be that Republicans won [in polls] on economic and values and foreign policy issues," he says. "Democrats won on quality of life. Now Democrats are winning on everything."

The worst news for Republicans in recent weeks has been the capture by Democrats of two Republican House seats in special elections in Illinois and Louisiana. Poorly chosen candidates were responsible for the defeats, Republicans insist. Maybe, but success in special elections usually foreshadows success in the next general election. This was precisely what happened in the months before the 1994 Republican landslide when Republicans won Democratic seats in special elections.

"These special elections are not indicative of what's going to happen this fall," argues House Republican whip Roy Blunt. "I'm not saying they're helpful." He notes that John McCain and Barack Obama weren't the likely presidential nominees six months ago, so the political environment may change in the six months before Election Day. If it does, it's not likely to change much.

[joyous88]

more dead american kids for the republicon greed machine

war for political and financial profit thats what we have here

bush belongs in prison and those who still support the republicon collabarators should be ashamed

[noloyalisti]

I''m sorry to tell you there are going to be other wars. This is quote from the chosen republican candidate, grampy mcBush. OH, MY, GOD!!!!! Aren''t we proud now?

[joyous88]

menmotoscutr,

you come off as just one more member of the republion noise machine,

the republicons are losing because they have supported every single thing that came out of the
mouth of bushRove, they still support bush by obstructing anything the democrats try to accomplish,

the big lie that you perpetuate is the one that states

the democrats control the government so its all thier fault, this is the same as saying the old republicon mantra ''its all clintons fault,

the democrats have a slim majority in congress,

but they do not have the votes to take control,

and make the decisions, if the democrats had the vote we would not be in Iraq, and our troops would not
be giving their lives for republicon greed

[stn_sage]

Bush can''''t cancel the elections because the federal government doesn''''t run the elections, the states do. To stop it would require a massive use of force and given that the military generally thinks Bush is incompetent
Posted by pdchapin at 09:26 AM : May 13, 2008
-------------------------------------------------
My response: WRONG, friend! It CAN be done. Bush has every right to declare a national emergency, and suspend or postpone all elections!

The point is: would he DARE to do it?! The consequences of doing it could be severe and damage the Rep party for generations to come!

"Beckel cites, in particular, a huge increase in Democratic voters in 2008 that has widened the party''s advantage in registration by millions of voters. "Republicans are facing a surge in new Democratic voters, and they are facing defections in a number of states." BUT "good news for McCain is that 20 percent of Clinton supporters in primary exit polls and other surveys say they''ll vote for him over Obama.

So, millions of voter registrations have swelled the Democratic Party ranks, thereby diluting the Republican ranks, but large numbers of whom in turn refuse to vote for the Democratic Party nominee. I agree with Mr. Beckel: "It''s impossible ... to
conclude anything other than it''s going to be a Democratic year." ;- This stimulating analysis failed to (1) include any numbers related to the Rush Limbaugh strategy, and (2) include the ONLY numberical tabulations that really counts, namely the electoral college numbers. It is not enough to tabulate the popular vote, as some Democrats are finding out. There is a "delegate" count of far greater importance.

First of all, this article was written by Fred Barnes, a total Republicah stooge. Then he quotes retiring Republican congressmen who say things aren''''t so bad - so why are they retiring ? No one retires from Congress unless he''''s been caught doing mischief or his party is DOOMED. Spinning the Iraq War is typical Republican denial - Americans are dying in Iraq at a regular rate - 4,076 as of today. Remember when 4,000 was just coming up ? These men are DEAD. For NOTHING but REPUBLICAN PRIDE. The Republicans lie to the American people, and they lie to themselves. SWEEP ALL REPUBLICANS OUT - into the trash heap of history.
Posted by superdem at 11:30 AM : May 13, 2008
----------------
Particide seems rather unfair. George W. Bush put US into the Iraq quagmire, not the Republican Party. The 4076(and counting) dead American soldiers answered the Commander-in-Chief''s call to service, not the Republican Party''s. Unless you are willing to concede that it is the Democratic Party''s fault for not getting US out of Iraq after they admitted it was wrongly conceived and wrongly entered, and unless you are willing to concede a Democratic Congress continues to fund an Iraq debacle of death and destruction long after that Congress has admitted the Mission Should Never Have Been Started, you need to be fair in whom you assign the blame. The Great Decider decided. Let the Great Decider take the heat.

[noloyalisti]

I am glad to start seeing so many people call a spade a spade and a republican a failure. It is time we told these violent extremists who care only for themselves who they are. Maybe if they received decent education and stopped listening to the propaganda so they could use the brain they were given, we could dig ourselves out. We could send the neocons to prison where they belong and keep people who don''t care about the government away from it.

[dmgenet]

Should any of them be surprised? When you take a *** on the ground and then fall back into it why are you surprised? It''s your *** and your fault.

[lochlan-2009]

Please don''''t equate the conservative party in the UK with republicans. The truth is a conservative in the UK would align very nicely with Obama and Clinton''''s philosophy. The Republican mentality in this country is virtually unheard of on the other side of the Pond.

Posted by USBrit

Thank you for pointing that out. They also have more parties and use them, and not like American politicians use them to pull votes away from another candidate.

[sjc_1]

Republicans exist to make their rich friends richer. Then they get nice big campaign checks to stay in power where they can work on making their rich friends even richer, while the tax payers get shafted at every turn. How anyone that works for a pay check can vote Republican is way beyond me to understand.