Are Republicans Gloomy For Good Reason?

Weekly Standard: Prospects For Republicans In The 2008 Election Look Grim

(Weekly Standard)  This column was written by Fred Barnes.

---

First, the good news. Conservatives won a sweeping victory in an enormously important election the week before last. Unfortunately, it happened in England, where Boris Johnson won the race for mayor of London and Conservatives trounced Labour all across the country. Now, the bad news. Prospects for Republicans in the 2008 election here at home look grim. The political environment isn't as bad as it was in 2006 when Republicans lost both houses of Congress and a lot more. But it's close.

The empirical evidence is well known. More than 80 percent of Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. Democrats have steadily maintained the 10 percentage point lead in voter preference they gained two years ago. And President Bush's job performance rating is stuck in the low 30s, a level of unpopularity that weakens the Republican case for holding the White House in 2008.

There's another piece of polling data that is both intriguing and indicative. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC survey last month, John McCain fared better with Republican voters (84 percent to 8 percent) than Barack Obama did with Democrats (78 percent to 12 percent). McCain was also stronger than Obama among independent voters (46 percent to 35 percent).

These are terrific numbers for McCain. But they aren't enough. In the overall match-up, McCain trailed Obama (43 percent to 46 percent). The explanation for this seeming paradox is quite simple: The Republican base has shrunk. In 2008, there are fewer Republicans.

"It's the erosion in party affiliation that's pulling McCain down," says a Republican strategist, and it could doom his chances of winning the presidency. The strategist fears Republican leaders and McCain campaign officials "don't realize the trouble they're going to be in."

There have been some improvements in political atmospherics for Republicans. The 2006 midterm election was framed by intense voter dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq. The 2008 election won't be. The surge of American troops in Iraq hasn't turned the war into a Republican asset, but it's at least blunted it as an effective Democratic talking point.

With scandal after scandal involving House Republicans in 2006, the party became the target of voter fury. Now Democrats control Congress. "The anger against congressional Republicans isn't there," says Republican congressman Tom Davis of Virginia, who is retiring.

Davis, however, thinks Republicans have made little headway in improving their tarnished image. House minority leader John Boehner talks about fixing the Republican "brand." Davis's assessment: "We haven't done anything the last year and a half to re-do the brand." Instead, Republicans have focused on "looking out for the president."

Pollster Frank Luntz, a sharp critic of Boehner's leadership, believes the Republican image has gotten worse. "It used to be that Republicans won [in polls] on economic and values and foreign policy issues," he says. "Democrats won on quality of life. Now Democrats are winning on everything."

The worst news for Republicans in recent weeks has been the capture by Democrats of two Republican House seats in special elections in Illinois and Louisiana. Poorly chosen candidates were responsible for the defeats, Republicans insist. Maybe, but success in special elections usually foreshadows success in the next general election. This was precisely what happened in the months before the 1994 Republican landslide when Republicans won Democratic seats in special elections.

"These special elections are not indicative of what's going to happen this fall," argues House Republican whip Roy Blunt. "I'm not saying they're helpful." He notes that John McCain and Barack Obama weren't the likely presidential nominees six months ago, so the political environment may change in the six months before Election Day. If it does, it's not likely to change much.

[lawyertom1]

Republicans have every reason to be worried. Even their much vaunted guano machine will not fool enough of the people this time around. Senate easily could have 60+ Democrats, and the House will have a strong Democratic majority. If McCain falls on his face, as he should, it will be an interesting next four years.

[irliberal]

If Rush "Oxycontin" Limbaugh was on MY side I would be VERY depressed.

[stn_sage]

There''s a lot of time between now and November! ANYTHING is possible!

Right now, Hillary Clinton is making it easier for the Reps to hang onto the White House!

And poor leadership in Congress by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, may limit seat pickups!

NO, this game is still in the ''first inning''! There''s a LONG way to go! It would be a big mistake for the Dems to be ''counting their eggs'' before they''re hatched!

[irliberal]

Right now, Hillary Clinton is making it easier for the Reps to hang onto the White House! Posted by stn_sage at 03:39 PM

No, she''s not. Win or lose, she''s doing just fine.

And poor leadership in Congress by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, may limit seat pickups! Posted by stn_sage at 03:39 PM

No, they''re not. They''re doing just fine.

NO, this game is still in the ''''first inning''''! There''''s a LONG way to go! It would be a big mistake for the Dems to be ''''counting their eggs'''' before they''''re hatched! Posted by stn_sage at 03:39 PM

Honey bunches, you need to change your meds because the fantasy you''re living in can''t be very healthy! LOL

[ianlou]

Pisss off a majority of the voting public and you will lose the election; This has always been true.
The only strategy the Republicans have successfully used so far to overshadow the systematic screwwing of the middle class is to blur it with fear mongering and moral sanctification. Not this time.

[jrysk]

Evelyn Pringle has just published her long-awaited bombshell article on Obama''s criminal complicity in the Rezko/Auchi/General Mediterranean criminal enterprise.

Obama is going to jail for a VERY long time. It''s all here: names, dates, places, amounts, schemes.

Obama supporters: read it and weep. Your guy is just a little punk hood.

Curtain Time For Barack Obama - Part I

http://www.opednews.com/articles/genera_evelyn_p_080512_curtain_time_for_bar.htm

[stn_sage]

Honey bunches, you need to change your meds because the fantasy you''''re living in can''''t be very healthy! LOL
Posted by IRLiberal at 03:42 PM : May 12, 2008
----------------------------------------------------
My response: The smug ''we got it wrapped up'' attitude you demonstrate is EXACTLY what has Dem party officials worried.

Reagan wasn''t expected to beat Carter---and did it via ''guns for hostages''. And Bush, Jr. didn''t win on the total amount of votes cast for him! He won by a Rep Sec of State who froze out the votes and a Supreme Court who ruled in his favor! It''s likely he won the 2nd time by voter machine fraud!

I''m not a RepubliCON, but unlike you, I respect their willingness to do WHATEVER it takes to hold onto power! I hope the history lesson jarred your memory!
You may be a liberal, but you''re also a bit of a fool! Wise up!

[Razzl]

Barnes makes no attempt to unravel the mystery of why Republicans in Congress have spent the last 2 years protecting Bush rather than running against him--do they really like his policies? Is there anything there to protect that Republicans consider core values? Are they blind to the trend that their 2006 defeat revealed? Even Strong Republicans like Nixon and Reagan were content to watch their party members in Congress run against them when it was clearly expedient; that was how the game was played.

I have trouble believing people who went to the trouble of changing their voter registration so recently for the primaries would not consider themselves vested in the Democratic Party for this November, so I think McCain''s wrapping up his nomination early may have sealed his fate. All those new Democrats are not going to be voting for him and they''re not staying home...

[stn_sage]

razzl has a good point when he says Reps who have become recent Dems are probably going to vote Dem and that will hurt McCain. But, if Obama is nominated, Clinton''s minions may vote for McCain. And, what votes are drawn away by Barr, Paul, Nader, or others?

The point is---it''s TOO SOON to assert any level of reasonable certitude on the outcome! Only a fool---or a political pundit---is doing so at this time!

[joyous88]

The repulicons have spent the last 12 years using

their greed driven policies to ruin our country,

and particulary the last eight, they stole this

election for bush, and they have backed every criminal

thing that bush has done, now they are backing McBush

they are un american , the republicon party has ruined our country and they should be destroyed

[joyous88]

jrysk is an idiot

and very probably a republicon

[ioweign]

Posted by jrysk at 04:11 PM : May 12, 2008



John McCain And The USS Forrestal Fire

http://tinyurl.com/3y9ges

[bluestardad]

THE REPIGS ARE DONE STICK A FORK IN THEM!

THE WEEKLY STANDARD AND AIPAC NEED TO GET THEMSELVES ANOTHER NEW BUNCH OF RIGHT WING NUTJOBS AS THESE THEY NOW HAVE ARE GOING THE WAY OF THE DOEDOE!

WHEN WAR CRIMES TRIALS START AFTER THE ELECTION THE REPIG BASE WILL SHRINK EVEN FURTHER!

AMERICA STAND UP OR SHUT UP!

[lobo113]

This elction''s biggest political fraud is the U.S.(Federal) Dept. of Education. The department of education is in the student loan business in the billions of dollars and not in the business of education and learning. It is a legacy that starts and impacts most in the slums and ghettos of America. Blacks and Hispanics are still in the back of the bus in education. We have the worst educational system worlwide. Return the education responsibilities back to the states. Abolish the Federal Department of Education. I believe both MCain and Obama will do this if elected.

[veteran72]

The Neocon''s see the train wreck coming and will probably opt for the "National Emergency" option.
Martial Law, Dictatorial Powers, keep the Money Faucet wide open into the pockets of Big Oil and Big War.
It''s good to be a Filthy Rich War Profiteering Neocon Nazi Scumbag......

[element51]

jrysk....Read the article. Biggest load of ***** I have ever seen. If Obama has committed crimes as you claim then why hasn''t he been exposed and arrested? When that happens I will believe you. Until then you are nothing but another neocon loser trying to stir up a ***** storm. It won''t work...the people aren''t as stupid as you seem to think. If this "investigation" has been going on as long as claimed the government would have taken Obama off in chains long ago. As for all the characters mentioned in the article, how many are under indictment? I can''t believe the lengths some people will go to simply to spread rumors. If Obama was involved and knew that this was taking place he is surely smart enough to know that sooner or later it would all come out. Why would he spend the time and effort to run if he knew it would all be for nothing? This whole thing is absurd.

[andylance1]

The most important thing the Republicans in the House of
Representatives can do to improve their chances in November is to select a new minority leader.

John Boehner is a poor excuse for minority leader. Fortunately, Nancy Pelosi is the worst Speaker of the House in history. The GOP house members need to get off their rear ends and find a better leader.

[jcr103]

Too many Republicans supported the Bush Adminstration for too long and refused to speak out even when Bush exhibited staggering incompetence. The Republicans have no one to blame but themselves for putting their party and their special interests ahead of the welfare of the country.

[stn_sage]

John Boehner is a poor excuse for minority leader. Fortunately, Nancy Pelosi is the worst Speaker of the House in history.
Posted by andylance1 at 11:32 PM : May 12, 2008
---------------------------------------------------
My response: You''ll get no argument fm me, mister! I think you''re correct on both points! The so-called leadership in Congress for both parties stinks!

[zorlacskates]

you know how i know all of you are gay?

you have a bumpersticker on your car that says, "i like it when balls are bouncing off my face." + you think anybody cares to read your lame opinions.

[noloyalisti]

I think yes the Republican should be gloomy. Everything the conservatives and Repubs have stood for has proven to be an absolute failure. Like their president bush, they will be recorded in history as bumbling failures.

[trbundro1277]

Maybe things wouldn''t be so gloomy for republicans if they actually had a nominee that was against Amnesty, rather than Juan Amnesty Mccain! I hate Amnesty! That is why I hate Juan Amnesty Mccain! I could tolerate a republican president, as long as that president was staunchly against illegals getting amnesty. I can''t and will never call Juan Mccain my president. If there is enough idiots in this country to vote for mccain, I swear i''ll move overseas then! I''m tired of republican nominees that only look out for the filthy rich, and the illegal immigrants! Isn''t it time for hard working blue collar americans to have a voice in Washington, and have a president that represents our interests, not the interests of illegal immigrants! America for the americans! Say No to Juan Amnesty Mccain! Vote Democrat 2008!

[truthyness]

I also come from a long line of Democrats but I have to face the fact that the Democratic Party isn''t what it used to be.

Two things have become evident to me even though they don''t
make any sense at all.

The first one is that the Democratic Party Leadership
knows damm well that if Obama where to actually make
it past the Republicans and get in the White House, the results will be disastrous.

The second one is that the Democratic leadership
is throwing this election.

I know it''s hard to believe. I know it doesnt make any sense. But it''s happening everyday right in front of us, and I can''t go on telling myself that it isn''t.

[Gary Kempf]

This morning on CBS up to the minute broadcast they stated a fact every American working class citizen has known and seen first hand for the past seven years.

Under George Bush administration, Gas has tripled, the cost of living is escalating, the number of Americans unemployed or underemployed due to corporate outsourcing has tripled. A stagnant pay level the middle class is facing is reaching a critical level. So yea I believe things should look extremely gloomy for the Republican party..... I don''t know if the Democratic Party has any magic cures, I just know its time to stop the destruction of America for the benefit of the wealthy provided by blatant pro corporate policies of current Republican leadership......

[jrcolmena]

"f Obama where to actually make
it past the Republicans and get in the White House, the results will be disastrous."

truthyness, what will the diasaster be? a president that responds for the interests of the people and not the corporations?

[wogerwabbit]

Attack Iran in June and the country goes wild. Declare martial law, cancel the elections in November, Bush stays on as dictator and the neocons will be dancing in the street.

[bluestardad]

AMERICA STAND UP OR SHUT UP!

WHERE ARE THE AMERICANS?

Lawyers File War Crimes Charges Against Rumsfeld And Others
In German Court

By Michael Ratner

29 November, 2006
Revolution


On November 14, the Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR), the International Federation for Human Rights, Germany''s Republican Attorneys'' Association, and other groups and individuals filed a formal complaint with the German Federal Prosecutor to open an investigation and, ultimately, a criminal prosecution of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and other major U.S. officials. The complaint argues that Rumsfeld and other high-ranking civilian and military officials named as defendants in the case have committed war crimes, and in particular torture, against prisoners in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay. Following is an interview Revolution did with Michael Ratner, president of the CCR, who was among those in Germany on November 14 to file the complaint.

[johnpatrick9]

Good riddance to a Party of fascist nincompoops..they will not be missed. Republicans are arrogant jerks. Enough said.

[stn_sage]

Attack Iran in June and the country goes wild. Declare martial law, cancel the elections in November, Bush stays on as dictator and the neocons will be dancing in the street.

Posted by WogerWabbit at 08:18 AM : May 13, 2008
--------------------------------------------------
My response: YES, you have the idea here! Blow up a couple bridges and a *** in the U.S., blame it on mythical terrorists, THEN declare martial law! So forth and so on.

What surprises me is that Bush hasn''t gone to Dems and pushed them for a draft! Think about it?! His party is probably going to lose big time in November, he''s not up for election, what does he care?!

He would then have his troops to continue onto Iran!
He could arraignment a deferment for his new son-in-law to keep him out of the military! He''d get the continuation of the U.S. presence in the Middle East for at least some time after he''s gone because it would take awhile to sort this mess out!

I''m just shocked that they didn''t come up with this and do it! He definitely is slipping! Nancy Pelosi would cooperate because Bush has her ''wrapped around his finger''! He says,''bark'' and she goes ''bow, WOW!''

Well, we''ll see what happens!

[stn_sage]

Evidently, your system reads dam-m-m as conventionally spelled---three letters---as a cuss
word!?

they are un american , the republicon party has ruined our country and they should be destroyed

Wow...here''s an idea...why don''t you start a movement to deport all Repulicans and then the Democrats and Obama can create the utopia you are looking for. Only one problem....all the money and jobs will be gone that the so called "fat cats" and corporations provide. How are your farming and hunting skills? You''ll need them.

[pdchapin]

Declare martial law, cancel the elections in November, Bush stays on as dictator and the neocons will be dancing in the street.

Posted by WogerWabbit at 08:18 AM : May 13, 2008

This idiot idea pops up every once in a while. Bush can''t cancel the elections because the federal government doesn''t run the elections, the states do. To stop it would require a massive use of force and given that the military generally thinks Bush is incompetent, they''re not about to follow illegal orders from a lame duck. And with a good chunk of our military deployed overseas, they don''t come close to having enough manpower to suppress a national election. All the attempt would do would be assure a Democratic victory.

[briannorwood]

The GOP needs another winning position to recapture the hearts and minds of the electorate. May I suggest they find another Terry Schiavo to save?

[davidlar2]

The Republican Party has walked away from its Libertarian roots to embrace neoconservatism, Wall Street socialism, and social conservatism.

As a Libertarian, I am more likely to vote for Obama or the Libertarian candidate than McCain. The Republicans have been corrupt and also need to learn that they abandon Libertarian voters at their own peril. I am not looking forward to 4 years of socialist protectionist redistributionist government from the Democrats, but the Republicans need to be voted out of power.

[superdem]

First of all, this article was written by Fred Barnes, a total Republicah stooge. Then he quotes retiring Republican congressmen who say things aren''t so bad - so why are they retiring ? No one retires from Congress unless he''s been caught doing mischief or his party is DOOMED. Spinning the Iraq War is typical Republican denial - Americans are dying in Iraq at a regular rate - 4,076 as of today. Remember when 4,000 was just coming up ? These men are DEAD. For NOTHING but REPUBLICAN PRIDE. The Republicans lie to the American people, and they lie to themselves. SWEEP ALL REPUBLICANS OUT - into the trash heap of history.

[wakeup60]

"Gloomy"..."HELL" yeh!They have every right to be "GLOOMY".They are on the way ..."OUT"!
"8" years of this ***-is kinda like:"How long has it been since you''ve had a bowl of Wolf Brand Chili? Well, that''s too long"!At the expense of our sons,daughters,husbands,wives,brothers,sisters,friendsthat have DIED-BEEN...MAIMED,BURNED,DIS-FIGURED,HAVE BEEN PARALIZED,BRAIN-DAMAGED AND SENT HOME ...IN A BOX,GURNEY,WHEELCHAIR/TO FEND FOR THEMSELVES-TO BE DENIED BENEFITS FOR ONE REASON OR ANOTHER/OR CUT OFF BECAUSE OF SOME IDIOTIC REASONING/TO BE SENT TO A FILTHY, CRUMBLING BARRICKS, FILTHY, VARMINT INFESTED HOSPITAL TOO FAR AWAY FROM FAMILIES TO SUPPORT THEIR LOVED ONES. SHAME ON THESE JERKS/TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT IN EVERY CASE/BUT MUCH MORE THAN THE PUBLIC IS AWARE! HOW DARE THIS ADMINISTRATION STIR UP THIS HORNET''S NEST/WITH THE WRONG COUNTRY AND PEOPLE-POLARIZE AND PROJECT THIS INSANE MESS INTO A RIVER OF NO RETURN! MISSION ACCOMPLISHED-RIGHT!!!!!JANUARY CANNOT COME FAST ENOUGH FOR THESE KIDS ON THEIR 2ND,3RD,4TH,5TH TOUR...TO COME HOME IN "1" PIECE AND ALIVE!!!_BETTER GET THE BUSH-MANIA BUSH-WHACKED OUT OF A "3RD" TERM WITH MCBUSH-AND-GET READY FOR THE CHANGE THAT SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED LONG AGO & SAVED OUR TROOP''S LIVES..."OBAMA" IS GOING TO DELIVER THE CHANGE!

[ubrew12]

Maybe Republicans are winning in England because they have no problem with national healthcare and don''t embrace indebtedness as a way to pay for their government.

[noloyalisti]

The republicans have proven they stand for big business and big government through out of control spending and privatization conspiracies.

They have raised the cost of living through fees and inflation, ruined entire industries and reduced jobs in America. They have also proven to be obstructionist, anti-Constitution and self serving.

This does not even count their non-support of the troops and foreign policy fiascos. In short, complete failures. Don''t forget who the Weakly supports.

[clestes-2009]

It is early yet, but depending on what happens this summer it could be a landslide victory for the democrats.

If the neocons succeed in attacking Iran, the reps are toast and they be toast even without it. Once the dems settle on Obama and he faces off with fossil John, it is over!

[usbrit-2009]

Maybe Republicans are winning in England because they have no problem with national healthcare and don''''t embrace indebtedness as a way to pay for their government.

Posted by ubrew12

Please don''t equate the conservative party in the UK with republicans. The truth is a conservative in the UK would align very nicely with Obama and Clinton''s philosophy. The Republican mentality in this country is virtually unheard of on the other side of the Pond.

[sjc_1]

Republicans exist to make their rich friends richer. Then they get nice big campaign checks to stay in power where they can work on making their rich friends even richer, while the tax payers get shafted at every turn. How anyone that works for a pay check can vote Republican is way beyond me to understand.

[lochlan-2009]

Please don''''t equate the conservative party in the UK with republicans. The truth is a conservative in the UK would align very nicely with Obama and Clinton''''s philosophy. The Republican mentality in this country is virtually unheard of on the other side of the Pond.

Posted by USBrit

Thank you for pointing that out. They also have more parties and use them, and not like American politicians use them to pull votes away from another candidate.

[dmgenet]

Should any of them be surprised? When you take a *** on the ground and then fall back into it why are you surprised? It''s your *** and your fault.

[noloyalisti]

I am glad to start seeing so many people call a spade a spade and a republican a failure. It is time we told these violent extremists who care only for themselves who they are. Maybe if they received decent education and stopped listening to the propaganda so they could use the brain they were given, we could dig ourselves out. We could send the neocons to prison where they belong and keep people who don''t care about the government away from it.

First of all, this article was written by Fred Barnes, a total Republicah stooge. Then he quotes retiring Republican congressmen who say things aren''''t so bad - so why are they retiring ? No one retires from Congress unless he''''s been caught doing mischief or his party is DOOMED. Spinning the Iraq War is typical Republican denial - Americans are dying in Iraq at a regular rate - 4,076 as of today. Remember when 4,000 was just coming up ? These men are DEAD. For NOTHING but REPUBLICAN PRIDE. The Republicans lie to the American people, and they lie to themselves. SWEEP ALL REPUBLICANS OUT - into the trash heap of history.
Posted by superdem at 11:30 AM : May 13, 2008
----------------
Particide seems rather unfair. George W. Bush put US into the Iraq quagmire, not the Republican Party. The 4076(and counting) dead American soldiers answered the Commander-in-Chief''s call to service, not the Republican Party''s. Unless you are willing to concede that it is the Democratic Party''s fault for not getting US out of Iraq after they admitted it was wrongly conceived and wrongly entered, and unless you are willing to concede a Democratic Congress continues to fund an Iraq debacle of death and destruction long after that Congress has admitted the Mission Should Never Have Been Started, you need to be fair in whom you assign the blame. The Great Decider decided. Let the Great Decider take the heat.

"Beckel cites, in particular, a huge increase in Democratic voters in 2008 that has widened the party''s advantage in registration by millions of voters. "Republicans are facing a surge in new Democratic voters, and they are facing defections in a number of states." BUT "good news for McCain is that 20 percent of Clinton supporters in primary exit polls and other surveys say they''ll vote for him over Obama.

So, millions of voter registrations have swelled the Democratic Party ranks, thereby diluting the Republican ranks, but large numbers of whom in turn refuse to vote for the Democratic Party nominee. I agree with Mr. Beckel: "It''s impossible ... to
conclude anything other than it''s going to be a Democratic year." ;- This stimulating analysis failed to (1) include any numbers related to the Rush Limbaugh strategy, and (2) include the ONLY numberical tabulations that really counts, namely the electoral college numbers. It is not enough to tabulate the popular vote, as some Democrats are finding out. There is a "delegate" count of far greater importance.

[stn_sage]

Bush can''''t cancel the elections because the federal government doesn''''t run the elections, the states do. To stop it would require a massive use of force and given that the military generally thinks Bush is incompetent
Posted by pdchapin at 09:26 AM : May 13, 2008
-------------------------------------------------
My response: WRONG, friend! It CAN be done. Bush has every right to declare a national emergency, and suspend or postpone all elections!

The point is: would he DARE to do it?! The consequences of doing it could be severe and damage the Rep party for generations to come!

[joyous88]

menmotoscutr,

you come off as just one more member of the republion noise machine,

the republicons are losing because they have supported every single thing that came out of the
mouth of bushRove, they still support bush by obstructing anything the democrats try to accomplish,

the big lie that you perpetuate is the one that states

the democrats control the government so its all thier fault, this is the same as saying the old republicon mantra ''its all clintons fault,

the democrats have a slim majority in congress,

but they do not have the votes to take control,

and make the decisions, if the democrats had the vote we would not be in Iraq, and our troops would not
be giving their lives for republicon greed

[noloyalisti]

I''m sorry to tell you there are going to be other wars. This is quote from the chosen republican candidate, grampy mcBush. OH, MY, GOD!!!!! Aren''t we proud now?

[joyous88]

more dead american kids for the republicon greed machine

war for political and financial profit thats what we have here

bush belongs in prison and those who still support the republicon collabarators should be ashamed