Analysis: Clinton's End Game

Washington Post: Don't Expect N.Y. Senator To Quit Before Superdelegates Decide

(Washingtonpost.com)  This analysis was written by Dan Balz.

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How will the Democratic nomination battle end?

At a time when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton faces ever longer odds in her quest to deny Sen. Barack Obama the nomination, that question has become increasingly important to the candidates and the party. Will it end happily or unhappily? Will the loser go graciously or bitterly? Will the Democrats end up united or divided?

Clinton has vowed to stay in "until there is a nominee," but even with six primaries left on the calendar, the party is beginning to coalesce around Obama.

Still, from Clinton's campaign, there is no talk of bringing the race to an end anytime soon. From her vantage point, she has in recent weeks won Ohio as well as the popular vote in Texas, Pennsylvania and Indiana. Obama won Mississippi and North Carolina. She has won critical battleground states and, in her view, is holding the constituencies vital to Democratic hopes of winning in November. Why not stay in until the end?

She also believes that the competition with Obama has produced record turnout, a surge of new registrants for the Democratic Party and a cadre of now-seasoned organizers who will be paying dividends for years to Democratic congressional and gubernatorial candidates. Her advisers are realists, but some genuinely think it is still possible to win -- not probable by any means but not out of the question.

Party strategists sketch out at least three scenarios for a possible end to the Clinton campaign.

The cleanest envisions Clinton suddenly deciding the race is over and, for the good of the party, deciding to suspend her candidacy. That could happen after next week's primary in West Virginia, which she is expected to win easily, or the following week, when she is expected to win Kentucky and Obama is favored to win Oregon.

Obama said that after the May 20 primaries, he may be able to claim a majority of the pledged delegates and, therefore, the nomination. That could put pressure on her to quit, though her advisers are not buying Obama's arithmetic.

The messy scenario would see Clinton continuing her campaign all the way to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late August -- arguing that she would be the stronger nominee against Sen. John McCain -- and mounting challenges before the party's credentials committee over the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates.

At this point, neither the clean nor messy endgame seems likely -- to strategists in either campaign or to other Democrats watching the race. Clinton vowed to stay in the race but also has pledged that, if it is clear Obama has the nomination sewn up, to support him and work to unify the party and defeat McCain.

That suggests the third scenario, that the race will not end until June 3 or soon after. Given what she said Wednesday about staying in until there is a nominee, and given the likelihood of rapid movement of superdelegates to Obama once the primaries are over (if not before), Clinton could declare the race over at that point.

A fourth scenario envisions Clinton being forced suddenly to suspend her campaign because she is out of money. Already she and her husband have lent the campaign more than $11 million. In addition, the campaign as of April had reported debts of about $10 million.

Obama advisers are watching and waiting. They are concerned that Clinton appears ready to continue challenging his strength against McCain. Inside the Obama camp, there is consensus that she should be given time to ease down from the intensity of recent months and to make a transition to more positive campaigning.

They do not want to do anything to antagonize her by calling for her to get out or by questioning her motives for staying in. But they are reluctant to sit back in the face of attacks, and they are not happy with some of the things she has said in the past few days.

So as settled as the outcome of the Democratic race may seem by the delegate math, it is far from over in the potential consequences for the candidates and the party.

[sgtrds]

I think it''s time Hillary supporters got used to two sentences that they''re going to be hearing a lot of. "Former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton" and "The next President of the United States of America, Barack Obama".

[sgtrds]

"That suggests the third scenario, that the race will not end until June 3 or soon after. Given what she said Wednesday about staying in until there is a nominee, and given the likelihood of rapid movement of super delegates to Obama once the primaries are over (if not before), Clinton could declare the race over at that point."

The "if not before" is happening right now. The super delegates are flowing steadily in Barack''s direction and the outcome of any of the few remaining primaries will not change that. The party has decided that Obama is going to be the nominee. Hillary should save herself the embarrassment and withdraw while she still has some dignity and self respect left, before she has to be thrown out.

[hotwitch]

For Hill to continue on is either stupid or out of touch with reality. Obama watch out, she''s neither.... she''s got something up her sleeve.

[sgtrds]

"Washington Post: Don''t Expect N.Y. Senator To Quit Before Superdelegates Decide."

But quit she certainly will, though not until after a few more fundraisers to bleed her few remaining supporters of enough money so her campaign can repay the personal loans she made to it. Then she''ll finally fold her tent and walk away with the money, leaving her supporters with a sweet sad sob story about how they didn''t actually just get robbed in the few weeks before she quit, while they''re holding their empty checkbooks and purses.

[juliekay44]

Many superdelegates are concerned about their own political careers, which is a very real concern.

In addition, the Clinton''s have considerable power that can had been misused in the past.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, freshman senator from Missouri, demonstrated considerable courage by endorsing Obama after Iowa. She was received considerable flax for not supporting another woman. President Clinton did a fund raiser for McCaskill during her run for senator.

It is past time for all superdelegates to put an end to Hillary''s run for President.

[remco82]

Hillary: Go home and bake cookies.

[chitown639]

Obama has a net of 7 superdelegates today...not bad!!!

[sjc_1]

Obama has 90% of the black vote, wins in red states and caucuses. You need to examine state by state who got the real votes and can win in November. That is Hillary Clinton.

[juliekay44]

9 Superdelegates today and the American Federation of Government Employees, a union for about 600000 federal employees

[popstom1]

here 16 million votes for McCain

[mudrose-2009]

You keep ''em guessing sweetie. That''s your girl.

[popstom1]

Lets see now if 95% white vote white

[ranakarimi]

in behalf of millions of hard working women i like to say if Hillary is not on the ticket we will vote for Mc Cain

[Torilin]

"I Said If
You''re Thinkin? Of
Being My Baby
It Don''t Matter If You''re Black Or White "...Jackson

[libh8er]

2 years experience = no dues paid
Posted by tracy0morgan at 04:23 PM : May 09, 2008

More like 3 years as a senator, 2 of them spent running for president. WIsh I had a job like that!

[glock4me]

in behalf of millions of hard working women i like to say if Hillary is not on the ticket we will vote for Mc Cain


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Posted by ranakarimi at 04:22 PM : May 09, 2008


I have never been a Hillary fan, but next to BHO she doesn''t seem so bad.

[sgtrds]

9 Superdelegates today and the American Federation of Government Employees, a union for about 600000 federal employees

Posted by JulieKay44 at 04:07 PM : May 09, 2008

Bring the totals to 271 for Barack and 271.5 for Hillary, though I''m still not sure what a half of a super-delegate looks like? Is that Bill?

[sgtrds]

99.9% of those that say they will vote for McCain if Barack is the nominee (and guess what, he is) are republicans who would never have voted Democratic in the first place or are bitter Hillary supporters that will be back in the party before fall.

[jack3213]

BITTERSWEET IS THE PILL THAT ENDURES WHEN THE VOTE IS DONE IN VAIN- AND YET- THOSE WHO WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN IN THE END,BECAUSE THEIR CHOICE WAS ELIMINATED- SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER FROM THE START- BEFORE THEY OPENED THEY THOUGHT GOOD OF CLINTON.OBAMA WILL BE SPOKEN OF AS THE CANDIDATE THAT GOT SO CLOSE BECAUSE OF HIS COLOR, NOT IN SPITE OF ANY QUALIFICATIONS. THAT IS VAIN.

[jack3213]

BITTERSWEET IS THE PILL THAT ENDURES WHEN THE VOTE IS DONE IN VAIN- AND YET- THOSE WHO WILL VOTE FOR MCCAIN IN THE END,BECAUSE THEIR CHOICE WAS ELIMINATED- SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER FROM THE START- BEFORE THEY THOUGHT GOOD OF CLINTON.OBAMA WILL BE SPOKEN OF AS THE CANDIDATE THAT GOT ''SO CLOSE''only BECAUSE OF HIS COLOR, NOT IN SPITE OF ANY QUALIFICATIONS. THAT IS THE DEFINITION OF VAIN.

[ajmarine11]

Posted by SgtRDS


I hear Kitna''s predicting 10 wins again. Good Luck.

[b-easy63]

This talk of justifying Clinton''s actions against Obama as toughening him up remind me of my days as a counselor for abused women. A woman told me how as an 8 year old girl, her father told her " he was only going to do to her what men would do anyway--so he was preparing her for it" That is what he told her, before her years of being raped repeatedly by him began. Evil people will say anything to justify the ****** that they do.

[sgtrds]

Posted by SgtRDS

I hear Kitna''''s predicting 10 wins again. Good Luck.

Posted by AJMarine11 at 05:35 PM : May 09, 2008

Why of why can''t the Lions ever get a REAL QB???

[jockh]

The only reason Hillary has not pulled out yet is obvious.

She has LOANED her campaign nearly $12 million dollars; at the moment there is not enough money in her campaign to repay her, if she quits then the donations stop, which means she has a problem recovering her millions.

However if she is clever she can continue and keep making requests for donations from foolish Clinton supporters.
Once enough gullible people have made donations and there is enough money to pay her back THEN suddenly she will announce that she is quitting for the good of the Party !

Does that make sense to you Clinton supporters?

Now go to her website immediately and pay back her loans!

[irliberal]

I''m starting to believe more and more than an Obama/Clinton ticket will form. I always wanted this kind of ticket and there for a while it didn''t look like it was even possible. But now I see that it is VERY possible, even probably. GO OBAMA/CLINTON 08!!! WOOHOO!

[ajmarine11]

Why of why can''''t the Lions ever get a REAL QB???

Posted by SgtRDS at 05:56 PM : May 09, 2008




ALLEN PARK, Mich. -- Detroit Lions quarterback Jon Kitna expects 10 wins.

Again.

A season after he said he expected 10 victories for a franchise that had not been to the playoffs since 1999, the 12-year veteran said he and his teammates won''t settle for less in 2008.

"Our expectation is we will be disappointed if we don''t win 10 games," Kitna following a Tuesday training session. "Because that will mean we''re not in the playoffs and that sucks.


Offensive coordinator Jim Colletto has indicated that there will be competition for the starting job, which Kitna has held the last two years. After the draft, Colletto said he would spread the practice time in training camp between Kitna and backups Dan Orlovsky and Drew Stanton




Maybe one of these guys will be better. You want to someone for Chad Johnson?

[ajmarine11]

I meant "do you want to TRADE someone for Chad Johnson?

I''m so mad at him, I can''t type straight.

Just because he is a character, doesn''t mean he has character.

[lorinkundert]

Hillary, Get the F.... out, you are destroying your party and destroying this country more than Bush could ever do, but then you really don''t care as long as you get what you want.

[In-Correct]

Obama Sucks.

[rowdytexan2]

This talk of justifying Clinton''''s actions against Obama as toughening him up remind me of my days as a counselor for abused women. A woman told me how as an 8 year old girl, her father told her " he was only going to do to her what men would do anyway--so he was preparing her for it" That is what he told her, before her years of being raped repeatedly by him began. Evil people will say anything to justify the ****** that they do.


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Posted by b-easy63 at 05:45 PM : May 09, 2008

Critical analysis bull ****** again!??? ROFL!

[rowdytexan2]

All the way to convention, Hillary! Then bring Obama back to reality!

[truthyness]

Michigan and Florida

re-vote or re-volt!!!

[rufisgufis]

HILLARY WILL SPIN IT TO WIN IT!

AT LEAST UNTIL SHE CAN GET ENOUGH SUCKERS SO SHE CAN TAKE HER OWN MONEY BACK OFF THE TABLE.

[rufisgufis]

HILLARY IS HISTORY!

DEPENDS ON WHAT THE MEANING OF THE WORD %u201CWAS%u2019 WAS.

[rufisgufis]

Hillary just dissed all non-white voters, i.e., Asian-American, African-Americans, Native Americans, Pacific Islanders, Latin Americans and Eskimos.

HILLARY LOVED IT WHEN OVER 90% OF THE BLACKS VOTED FOR BILL FOR PRESIDENT IN 1992 AND 1996.

[rufisgufis]

Hillary should tell Bill that should he experience an erection lasting more than three days he should immediately seek medical attention - or Monica.

[rufisgufis]

HILLARY IS HISTORY!

DEPENDS ON WHAT THE MEANING OF THE WORD %u201CWAS%u2019 WAS.

[rufisgufis]

HILLARY WILL SPIN IT TO WIN IT!

AT LEAST UNTIL SHE CAN GET ENOUGH SUCKERS SO SHE CAN TAKE HER OWN MONEY BACK OFF THE TABLE.

[rufisgufis]

HILLARY RESEMBLES AND REMINDS ME OF CHUCKY. THE MINUTE YOU THINK SHE%u2019S DEAD, THAT UGLY FACE OF HERS POPS RIGHT BACK UP.

[rufisgufis]

Hillary Clinton will go down as one of the most creative, elaborate, colorful, thoughtful, and amazing liars in history. She has definitely made a legacy that will be told and retold for decades to come. And no matter what we think of her, she has a very promising career in front of her as a gifted fiction writer.

[rufisgufis]

Hillary can still win this IF: She pulls a gun on all the remaining superdelegates and force them to vote for her; IF all of the superdelegates suddenly go crazy; If the votes of 31 states are voided; If the the votes in Pennsylvania are accorded 10 times as normal; IF she did something with that face of hers; IF Bill finds someone to replace Monica; IF pigs start flying and Hillary joins them.

[rufisgufis]

Forget that Hillary voted for the Iraq war. Forget that she voted to authorize Bush to declare war on Iran. Forget that she is now threatening to %u201Cobliterate Iran.%u201C Forget about Hillary%u2019s elaborate lie about dodging bullets in Bosnia. Forget that Hillary supported NAFTA until she began to run for president, Forget that her campaign manager supported a free trade agreement with Colombia that she (wink, wink) didn%u2019t know about. Forget that Hillary signed a pledge not to recognize the Michigan results and is now trying to get the votes counted even though Obama was not even on the list. Forget that Harold Ickes, Hillary%u2019s campaign manager, was on the committee that decided to strip Michigan delegates for voting too early. IN FACT, FORGET BOTH CLINTONS.

[roach9703]

Hillary the Great of America shall not be stopped?
Did a German philospher opine the view that the will is paramount to power and achievement?
Now, could not the Maxist of manadatory health insurance not succeed?

[jgunther7]

The Clinton campaign is coming to an end. Does this mean she is going to offer the VP position to Barack Obama?

[jgunther7]

The Clinton campaign is coming to an end. Does this mean that Hillary will be offering the VP position to Barack Obama again?

[tbweb]

Isn''t it ironic how Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton talks about having the support of White working class Voters and Sen. Barack Obama doesn''t! Well, well, well, I recall in 1996 the tables were turned, Sen. Bob Dole had the same constituency, the White working class Voters and Bill Clinton didn''t! In fact Bill Clinton was in the same boat Barack Obama is in now! And as we all know, Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole and went on to become President without the White working class voters but with an overwhelming African-American Vote! So what the hell is Sen. Clinton''s point?

[cfin5]

I wouldn''t quite either with my opponents inability to select competent advisers to his campaign. Oblahma just fired another "advisor" named Robert Malley for smoochin'' with HAMAS terrorists quit regularly as a matter of fact. Notice how they only get canned "after" the public finds out about it? Senator Obama is NOT good for ANY public service job! Not in this country anyway.

[intheshade-2009]

For those changing from Hillary to McCain thinking they are going to get that gas tax holiday, the truth is it will never happen. I am sorry, but you were scamed. Actually the gas tax holiday was never intended to be put into action anyway. It never was and never will be. The nominee wouldn%u2019t take office until January, and even then they would not have the power to make it into a law. The president can%u2019t make it happen. Congress can make such a law, and Hillary is in the congress. So maybe you can get her to keep her word and deliver. Highly unlikely, you have been had. Time to move on.

[jgunther7]

Some of the old Hillary supporters are threatening to change over from Hillary to McCain. Maybe they just like to be on the losing side. That makes them losers.

[b-easy63]

Some of the old Hillary supporters are threatening to change over from Hillary to McCain. Maybe they just like to be on the losing side. That makes them losers.

Posted by jgunther7 at 10:16 AM : May 10, 2008


Not just losers. Poor losers. Sore losers. Poor sports. People who are mad that their favorite player "lost" so now they want to throw the game.

The real name for that is "Petty" but that is what is left when one is miserable, uneducated and probably racist or sexist--it''s the only tantrum left for them to throw. I think it is good for them to claim it--so we can see who they all are---sort of like the neo cons with the Bush/Cheney sticker on the car. It is always good to see who were the minds behind where the country is at--right now. The Hillary turn coats are the same. It only makes HRC look bad--we said she was divisive--many of her supporters prove that.