Analysis: Clinton's End Game

Washington Post: Don't Expect N.Y. Senator To Quit Before Superdelegates Decide

(Washingtonpost.com)  This analysis was written by Dan Balz.

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How will the Democratic nomination battle end?

At a time when Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton faces ever longer odds in her quest to deny Sen. Barack Obama the nomination, that question has become increasingly important to the candidates and the party. Will it end happily or unhappily? Will the loser go graciously or bitterly? Will the Democrats end up united or divided?

Clinton has vowed to stay in "until there is a nominee," but even with six primaries left on the calendar, the party is beginning to coalesce around Obama.

Still, from Clinton's campaign, there is no talk of bringing the race to an end anytime soon. From her vantage point, she has in recent weeks won Ohio as well as the popular vote in Texas, Pennsylvania and Indiana. Obama won Mississippi and North Carolina. She has won critical battleground states and, in her view, is holding the constituencies vital to Democratic hopes of winning in November. Why not stay in until the end?

She also believes that the competition with Obama has produced record turnout, a surge of new registrants for the Democratic Party and a cadre of now-seasoned organizers who will be paying dividends for years to Democratic congressional and gubernatorial candidates. Her advisers are realists, but some genuinely think it is still possible to win -- not probable by any means but not out of the question.

Party strategists sketch out at least three scenarios for a possible end to the Clinton campaign.

The cleanest envisions Clinton suddenly deciding the race is over and, for the good of the party, deciding to suspend her candidacy. That could happen after next week's primary in West Virginia, which she is expected to win easily, or the following week, when she is expected to win Kentucky and Obama is favored to win Oregon.

Obama said that after the May 20 primaries, he may be able to claim a majority of the pledged delegates and, therefore, the nomination. That could put pressure on her to quit, though her advisers are not buying Obama's arithmetic.

The messy scenario would see Clinton continuing her campaign all the way to the Democratic National Convention in Denver in late August -- arguing that she would be the stronger nominee against Sen. John McCain -- and mounting challenges before the party's credentials committee over the seating of Michigan and Florida delegates.

At this point, neither the clean nor messy endgame seems likely -- to strategists in either campaign or to other Democrats watching the race. Clinton vowed to stay in the race but also has pledged that, if it is clear Obama has the nomination sewn up, to support him and work to unify the party and defeat McCain.

That suggests the third scenario, that the race will not end until June 3 or soon after. Given what she said Wednesday about staying in until there is a nominee, and given the likelihood of rapid movement of superdelegates to Obama once the primaries are over (if not before), Clinton could declare the race over at that point.

A fourth scenario envisions Clinton being forced suddenly to suspend her campaign because she is out of money. Already she and her husband have lent the campaign more than $11 million. In addition, the campaign as of April had reported debts of about $10 million.

Obama advisers are watching and waiting. They are concerned that Clinton appears ready to continue challenging his strength against McCain. Inside the Obama camp, there is consensus that she should be given time to ease down from the intensity of recent months and to make a transition to more positive campaigning.

They do not want to do anything to antagonize her by calling for her to get out or by questioning her motives for staying in. But they are reluctant to sit back in the face of attacks, and they are not happy with some of the things she has said in the past few days.

So as settled as the outcome of the Democratic race may seem by the delegate math, it is far from over in the potential consequences for the candidates and the party.

[bajaan]

It is clear that the uneducated hard working Americans - white Americans - vote for me overwhelmingly. They are my core base."
________________________

I also would NEVER vote for Hillary.

[raoul31]

It is clear that the uneducated hard working Americans - white Americans - vote for me overwhelmingly. They are my core base."
____________

I voted for Hillary in Texas but I would never vote for her again. I am a "hard-working" American. I think she is saying only "white Americans" are hard-working. That is an insult. My friends and I have talked, and we would never voter for her again.

[b-easy63]

It is clear that the uneducated hard working Americans - white Americans - vote for me overwhelmingly. They are my core base."


Translation from Hillary " I get all the stupid white ones"

[b-easy63]

Hillary dissed all non-white voters, i.e., Asian-American, African-Americans, Native Americans, Pacific Islanders, Latin Americans and Eskimos. Sounds as though she is saying only "white Americans" are hard working. As a Latino, I am insulted and my friends and I would never vote for her.

Posted by rufisgufis at 03:52 PM : May 10, 2008

Hillary also dissed all white voters who vote for her. Her words were "the least educated (meaning stupid or ignorant), hardworking poor (meaning too stupid to get an education and therefore make more money) If you really dissect what she is saying, she is implying that jealous, racist, poor, stupid white losers are her main supporters. That is a slap to everyone else who supports her who either is not white, or not racist, not stupid and not poor.

Good luck with all of that Hillary--your supporters will really have to take an extra swig of the koolaide to choke that description down.

IN OTHER NEWS--a recent California poll shows that if a revote in the primary were held today, most would go for Obama. wonder why? Maybe because the majority of Californians are not stupid, poor white racists? Hmmmmm?

[b-easy63]

Barack polls only 40% of the white vote. Thats 32% of the total vote. Even with a white VP running mate it isnt obvious that negro freshman can win more than 10 states in a direct election, which will be based on a winner-take-all state basis. Thats just keeping it real.

Posted by tracy0morgan at 03:51 PM : May 09, 2008


Bill Clinton won the white house with only 41% of the White vote. It is said the pivotal factor was that he received over 80% of the black vote. Since Truman, no Democrat has ever got over 48% of the white vote and indeed have always got much less.

Hillary is now slated to get very little of the black vote as her true colors are coming out for blacks to see. Any other comments?

[rufisgufis]

CLINTON HAS WON IN ALL STATES BUT ONE - THE STATE OF DENIAL.

[rufisgufis]

IT''S ALL OVER!! CLINTON WILL CONCEDE AFTER SHE AND OBAMA WORK OUT A PLAN FOR ASSISTANCE WITH HER CAMPAIGN DEBTS.

THERE WILL BE A GARAGE SALE OF OVER 17000 PAIRS OF PANTSUITS, SIZE 84, TO TAKE PLACE ON THE AREA IN FRONT OF THE LINCOLN MONUMENT. PLEASE BRING PLENTY OF DEODORANT.

[rufisgufis]

IT''S ALL OVER!! CLINTON WILL CONCEDE AFTER SHE AND OBAMA WORK OUT A PLAN FOR ASSISTANCE WITH HER CAMPAIGN DEBTS.

THERE WILL BE A GARAGE SALE OF OVER 17000 PAIRS OF PANTSUITS TO TAKE PLACE ON THE AREA IN FRONT OF THE LINCOLN MONUMENT. PLEASE BRING PLENTY OF DEODORANT.

[obamaslady]

"She also believes that the competition with Obama has produced record turnout, a surge of new registrants for the Democratic Party and a cadre of now-seasoned organizers who will be paying dividends for years to Democratic congressional and gubernatorial candidates." If HRC believes these new voters registered to vote for her, she is sadly mistaken since most newly registered Dems have come aboard due to Obama''s registration drives and the young voters are supporters of his. I guess the clintons are simply living in a state called denial!

[rufisgufis]

"We are the party of the people, the coal miner, the waitress, the truck driver. We don''t need any elitists in our party. Therefore I am going to loan my campaign another 6.4 million in addition to the 5 million I''ve already lent them. After all, this is supposed to be the party of the working man."