May 7, 2008
Clinton's Path To Victory Slipping Away
CBSNews.com Reports: N.Y. Senator Now Faces Nearly Impossible Odds To Capturing Democratic Nomination
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Hillary Ignores Resign Calls
Pressure is building for Hillary Clinton to withdraw her bid for the Democratic nomination. But as Jim Axelrod reports, Clinton shows no signs of slowing down.
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Numbers Confirm Clinton Defeat
With the number of superdelegates not adding up, top-level aides are saying that a win by Hillary Clinton has become a near impossibility. Jeff Greenfield reports.
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Can Clinton Hold On?
Sen. Barack Obama is now within 200 delegates of what he needs to clinch a victory. Where does that leave Clinton? Jeff Greenfield analyzes the N.C. and Indiana contests by the numbers.
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Hillary Clinton
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The latest list of primary and caucus dates as states continue jockeying for position.
Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the Democratic nomination have become slim to none - and slim looks to be leaving town.
“I think the race is probably over,” said “Face the Nation” host Bob Schieffer. “But the demolition derby keeps going. I would guess there is going to be real pressure on her to wind it up and I would also guess she'll have a harder time raising money. This week should tell the tale on whether she quits or goes on.”
Analysts and pundits aren’t the only ones questioning Clinton’s ability to win the race. “I think effectively the race is over,” Democratic strategist Tad Devine told CBSNews.com. “Someone could theoretically conceive of a route home for her, but I don't see any realistic way for her to win more pledged delegates, more of the popular vote, or attract more superdelegates than she has now.”
Devine knows delegates, having served on several Democratic presidential campaigns, including a stint as the delegate counter for Michael Dukakis in 1988. “It is effectively an insurmountable lead” that Obama holds, said Devine.
“The fact is,” Democratic strategist and CBS News consultant Joe Trippi said, “this has probably been over for quite awhile.”
Clinton’s arguments that she can still win have largely evaporated after last night. In the popular vote, Barack Obama added more than 230,000 to his overall total in North Carolina, compared to the 20,000 Clinton won in Indiana. Even if Clinton and Obama were allocated votes from the disputed contests in Florida and Michigan last January, Clinton could still find herself trailing in the popular vote lead.
Here's how it breaks down: Right now, Obama leads Clinton by nearly 700,000 votes, if you don't count Michigan and Florida. Clinton was on the ballot in both states; Obama was not on the Michigan ballot, though many of his supporters voted "uncommitted." If you count only the votes cast for the candidates in both states - and thus don't count uncommitted for Obama - Obama would still have a national vote lead of more than 73,000 votes. If you give Michigan's uncommitted vote to Obama, he would lead by over 310,000. And if only Florida were counted, Obama would lead by more than 400,000 votes. Under every scenario, Clinton does not claim the popular vote lead.
To claim the nomination based on the popular vote, then, Clinton would first have to convince the party and the superdelegates to count the disputed states in terms that most benefit her - and then win the upcoming contests in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana by large enough margins to overcome him in the total vote.
When it comes to the delegate race, Clinton’s hurdle is just as daunting. Obama leads Clinton among pledged delegates won in all contests to date 1,587 to 1,419 - a 168 delegate lead with just 217 delegates left in the upcoming contests. Because of the proportional system of delegate allocation in the Democratic Party, she would need massive victories in every one of the upcoming contests in order to close that gap.
Among the superdelegates, the party’s free agents who can change their allegiance at any time, Clinton maintains a slim 271 to 261 lead with 263 supers still up for grabs. But the trend has been in Obama’s direction of late. In the time between the Pennsylvania primary and last night’s contests, Clinton received the support of 13 superdelegates compared to 22 who endorsed Obama.
The total delegate lead for Obama stands at 1,848 to 1,690 after last night. Currently, 2,025 are needed to win the nomination, meaning Obama needs 177 of the 492 total remaining. Clinton would need 335 of them. (Click here for the latest CBS News state-by-state tally.)
The Clinton campaign has been using slightly different math which includes the delegates from Florida and Michigan - a calculation that would push the number needed for the nomination to 2,209. The process of deciding how or if those states, which were punished for breaking party rules in setting their primary dates, will be treated will begin at a DNC rules committee meeting on May 30th. Under one proposal, the pledged delegates in those states would be cut in half, a move that would give Clinton a net gain of about 163 delegates if they are allocated by the results in January. When superdelegates from those states (also omitted from the process at this point) are added in, Clinton would have a chance to cut that more, but she would not be able to catch Obama even if she were to win the support of all 53 of them.
“Even if you drag in Florida and Michigan, I think he'd still be ahead,” Devine said. “And I don't see a scenario where he's going to give up a nomination that he's won. They may come to a resolution of those states, but I don't think it will be done at the expense of his nomination.”
There is one scenario which does work for Clinton and that’s a massive movement of superdelegates leaving Obama and supporting her. The party leaders could do that, but it would take some unforeseen development in the race between now and the convention for them to do so. Obama, in some way, would have to be rendered so unelectable that the party rejects him at the convention. That’s not much to hang a hat on but it’s starting to look like her best option.
And even that might not be a viable option, said Joe Trippi. “Even if the catastrophic thing existed or happened, if she were perceived to have caused it, I think it would end her campaign too,” Trippi said. I don’t think there’s any way now for her to gain the nomination. She’s at the point now where if she tries to make a case against Obama, it will actually speed up superdelegates joining his cause just to shut the campaign down.”
But Trippi notes that the Obama campaign and Democratic leaders are still likely to give Clinton the room she needs to go forward on her own terms, provided that she does so in a positive manner. “I think there’s lots of tolerance for her going on, running the table into the convention and having a presence there,” he said. “But if she actually tries to compete in the trenches for the nomination in a way that looks like it’s damaging the nominee … I don’t think there will be any tolerance for that at all.”
Clinton vowed Wednesday not to give up the fight, saying she's "staying in this race until we have a nominee" and stressing the necessity of seating the delegates from Florida and Michigan. In what may have been an effort to tamp down on speculation that she might drop out, her campaign on Wednesday morning scheduled a noon rally in West Virginia, the next state on the primary calendar.
And despite speculation that uncommitted superdelegates would flock to Obama following yesterday's results, some of those who spoke out Wednesday - among them Sen. Jack Reed and Rep. Joe Courtney - vowed to bide their time. Clinton even picked up a superdelegate, Rep. Heath Shuler, who followed through on his promise to back the candidate who picked up the most Democratic votes in his rural, conservative North Carolina district.
But there were ominous signs for Clinton as well. An aide revealed Wednesday morning that Clinton had loaned her campaign $6.4 million over the past month - a signal that despite her fundraising surge following her Pennsylvania win, Clinton continues to struggle to keep pace with Obama's unprecedented fundraising success. She also saw the support of four previously uncommitted superdelegates swing to Obama later in the day.
Also Wednesday, former Democratic presidential nominee George McGovern, a friend of the Clintons who had previously backed Hillary, switched his support to Obama. McGovern said he had concluded after the Indiana and North Carolina results came in that the New York senator had no realistic chance at the nomination - an opinion echoed by many of the pundits. And while Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson may have been right when he said Wednesday morning that "the punditocracy does not control this nominating process - voters do," having prominent media figures telling voters that your campaign is doomed cannot do much for a candidate's prospects.
By Vaughn Ververs and Brian Montopoli
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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See all 1567 Commentsbeen talking to here in ILL are fed up with the "games" and are thinking about becoming McCain Democrats.
Clinton!! Help defeat the GOP, drop out!!
Nor should there be. the only way she should stay in the public eye now wold be to come out, enthusastically, in support of the party nominee, Barack Obama.
Troll.
Posted by usmcvn2 at 05:33 PM : May 07, 2008
Bill is a smart enough politician to know that she''s just not going to make it and I''m sure he''s one of the people telling her so. One of the many.
since when did the popular vote mean anything in an U S election ?
Hillary only has to keep talking until the " super Delegate " vote is cast.
Want to bet how it will go ?
If Sen. Clinton is forced to quit, there is no doubt Obama will crash and burn in November and the Democratic Party will be a train wreck - just like it was with radical left wing liberal George McGovern who lost every single state except one state in the general election.
The black racism in the North Carolina win cannot triumph over the nomination process. The Indiana win of a mere 9 counties by Obama out of more than 100 counties cannot triumph over the nomination process. Florida and Michigan must be counted; the remaining states must vote; and the superdelegates must use their independent judgment to select the best qualified candidate for the presidency and that is Hillary Clinton. For the good of the Democratic Party, Sen. Clinton%u2019s fight for the future of America must continue full speed ahead. Rational Democrats need to step up to the plate and make frequent contributions to the Hillary Clinton campaign at hillaryclinton.com.
Posted by crat3 at 05:45 PM : May 07, 2008
Rational Democrats are the ones telling her that the time has come for her to step aside for the good of the party.
When the decision was made on Florida and Michigan, everyone assumed Clinton would run away with the nomination. So much for conventional wisdom.
Bet the rules change for 2012.
Something to think about!
It is clear, with even Hillary''s campaign is coming to the rational conclusion that she cannot win, that uniting the Democratic Party around Barack Obama is imperative.
Here is a solution that allows everyone to take something from the table, which is what it is going to take for the Party to begin the healing process.
A deal should be struck whereby Hillary agrees to withdraw from the race, and Obama agrees to let most of the Florida and Michigan delegations be seated at the convention.
Hillary could then claim a victory of sorts, as making this the "price" of a dignified exit would allow her to say she is putting the Party''s prospects in November above her own personal ambitions.
It would also help the Democrats win those two states in the general election.
It requires noblesse oblige from both sides.
Obama clearly has it.
And if Hillary takes the deal, it would do a lot for her to begin restoring a family legacy that this ugly campaign, and especially Bill Clinton''s role in it, has so tarnished.
It is Clintons first and then the Democratic Party.
Posted by scorp79 at 05:56 PM : May 07, 2008
She is.
Obama clearly has it.
And if Hillary takes the deal, it would do a lot for her to begin restoring a family legacy that this ugly campaign, and especially Bill Clinton''''s role in it, has so tarnished.
Posted by AndersenME at 05:54 PM : May 07, 2008
Unfortunately, HRC is such a known liar, backstabber and opportunist that if any offer was made to her, she might try to hold the camps to seating Mi and Fl and still try some weird way to steal the election. It would not make sense and it would be doomed--but such prospects from a socio and pathologically damaged person such as HRC--would not care less.
Kick her to the curb and let her and her supporters know that if Obama loses--THAT and the divisions she caused will be laid at her door too, not only by the Dems but by everyone else--which means no one would want that Benedict Arnold in 2012 either.
Hillary needs to bow out with while she can still do it with some grace.
This is getting ridiculous.
Well those ''prominent media figures'' (in other words the MSM) have been trying their damnest to politically lynch Obama over the "guilt by association" game played ONLY on him, so you simply can''t expect them to do otherwise since they viewed (and loved every minute of it) it as though it were a nascar race and they were all awaiting the "fiery crash" - they did not CARE ENOUGH who ended up crashing and burning because it bought them their ALMIGHTY RATINGS. [They worship at the alter of RATINGS because ratings mean MONEY.] They are the ''powerful'' (they make or break people with their words and opinions) and when it comes to any political race, and because one this thrilling has not happened in decades, they wanted it to go on forever! MONEY AND POWER CAN BE DANGEROUS!
Posted by scorp79 at 05:56 PM : May 07, 2008
She is.
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Posted by SgtRDS at 05:57 PM : May 07, 2008
SgtRDS, WRONG WRONG & WRONG AGAIN, Clinton is getting around 60-70% at most of the white vote.Get you facts straight.None of this much matters anyway, the democrats have killed their chance by sending two stiffs against the republican attack machine and have given them more ammo then they could ever have hoped for.I have been followed politics for a long long time and this one is surely going to wind up being a McCain win like it or not.The dems had the best chance ever to win back the white house but blew it after 8 horrible yrs of bush.
I''m hoping that it would give our youth something more to aspire to than rap music, driving your humvee that you bought with your welfare check, and collecting bling, while you abuse yo'' babies'' momma.
I admire youth who try to better themselves and stop depending on the system...Obama seems to be about personal responsibility...a message we need to send to our youth.
"I see my Hillary slippin'' awaAAAAAAAAAAAAY"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!
Posted by scorp79 at 05:56 PM : May 07, 2008
She is.
Posted by SgtRDS at 05:57 PM : May 07, 2008
Scorp: you only control your own vote for your own reasons. What % of the white vote did Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, *** Gregory, Shirley Chisolm or Alan Keyes carry when they ran? Don''t know who most of these people are? They are blacks who ran but lost mightily to the votes going to another candidate. You can be as upset as you want about anyone''s vote--but some are voting for Hillary because she is white or a woman, and others may be voting for Obama because he is black or a man--either way--it is NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS. A vote is a vote--just make sure you can live with the real reasons for your own vote and let it go.
Let''s just say that this country falls into a deep Depression. And for whatever reason, we don''t come out of it for 5 or 6 years....Are you confident enough in Obama to take responsibility for that??
YES or NO??? Simple one word answer is all I''m looking for.
Posted by scorp79 at 06:22 PM : May 07, 2008
I believe that they are voting for him because they agree with him, which isn''t the same thing as saying they are voting against Hillary or for him because of his race. I''m white and I''m voting for him because he''s the right person for the job and for no other reason. I suspect most people who vote for him are doing it for that same reason.
YES or NO??? Simple one word answer is all I''''m looking for.
Posted by truthyness at 06:25 PM : May 07, 2008
I''m confident that with him as president it won''t happen.
Posted by scorp79 at 06:22 PM : May 07, 2008
Blacks comprise only 13% of all voters. So what % of white voters may be voting for HRC just because she is white? FAce it, you are just mad that your candidate is a loser who can''t manage her finances and is known as a huge liar. Maybe blacks don''t like people who tell huge lies over and over than lie about their lies, then lie about lying about their lies, then have their spouse lie about the lying about the lies. Maybe it is not a color thing at all--but if it is-maybe we better stop and think just how much blacks can affect an election and what we will do next time to not disenfranchise them or make the issues one of race. We could start with Bill and Hillary not denigrating MLK vs Johnson and then go from there to not comparing a candidate to a former candidate just on the bases of their skin color. Then we might not want to insist that a candidate is where he is due to his race.... Pssst...take that HUGE hint to Hillary and the gang.
Posted by scorp79 at 06:29 PM : May 07, 2008
Bye. Don''t let the door hit you in the as*s on the way out.
Maybe those black candidates did not pull in many white votes because of what they stood for: bigotry, racial division, hate mongering, and overt knee jerk overreactions to perceived but unproven racism on the part of white people.
Posted by bullyforhim at 06:24 PM : May 07, 2008
Maybe. Or maybe as was said at the time of their running, America was simply not ready psychologically or socially to accept a black as the President. Either way it is cut--they did not get the votes from white America and so what? People vote the way they choose, and there is not a *** thing anyone else can do about it. People vote on issues, or because they like a candidate or skin color or whatever--in the end--there is no point in ragging on the votes--I know many whites who voted for HRC because she is white and I know blacks who detest HRC now and I also know blacks who detest Obama. You want to make it about color--perhaps because it IS about color to quite a few people? That does not make it so--it just means that your own personal hangups are coloring the picture. Pun intended.
Let''''s just say that this country falls into a deep Depression. And for whatever reason, we don''''t come out of it for 5 or 6 years....Are you confident enough in Obama to take responsibility for that??
YES or NO??? Simple one word answer is all I''''m looking for.
Posted by truthyness at 06:25 PM : May 07, 2008
HRC would do worse--look how she managed the finances for her campaign. Would we be comfortable with Hillary at the helm? Due to her dishonesty quotient--the answer is probably NO. LOL
Posted by ttinsly at 06:14 PM : May 07, 2008
Well, no - you seem to forget that 15-16 MILLION people happily voted for her - nearly half the total number of people who voted. They want her to be the nominee and the President!
Posted by mrmazerati at 06:31 PM : May 07, 2008
I think it''s a moot point because the majority of white people who hate Barack (and I doubt that there''s even very man) weren''t going to vote for him anyway because they''re bigots.
Grandpa McCain = The Same
Grandpa Factor: All Moderate Republicans & Independent Thinking Republicans, The Independents, The Middle Age & Younger Voters (Of All Race) will Not Vote For ..
Grandpa McCain !!
1. The Middle Aged will Not Vote for McCain, because their 25 Yrs. Close to being Him and they Have Children in a 20 Billion $ Per Month Farce Of a War, in Iraq & Afghanistan !!
2. The 30 yr old dont want a 72 yr old War Mongering, lets Stay in 20 Billion $ Per Month Farce Of a War in Iraq & Afghanistan !!
3. High School College Kids: 20 -18 Yr old, regardless of their Race will Not Vote for McCain, because they dont want to be in that 20 Billion per Month Iraq & Afghanistan Farce of a War...Period
4. McCain Voted for the 20 Billion $ War in Iraq & Afghanistan and says we will stay there as longas it takes, 100 Yrs if we have to. Mccain made his Biggest Blunder and shows his Lack of Coherent Thinking, McCain shouldve waited to make such a statement, but During the primaries, he cant Distance himself from those Words Spoken...He Cant !!
5. Youth will Prevail, Color will be of No Importance, Religion will Not... But a 46 yr old man, that Looks like a 36 Yr old man, facing a 72 yr old GrandPa will be a Physical Mix Match, more glaring than the Kennedy & Nixon Face To Face...
McCain wants a 60 Yr Old Female Hillary...
Not a Face Off with 46 yr old Man, that looks like hes 36 yr old...Barack Obama..Believe It !!
Due to the extended race for the Democratic nomination, MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of new voters have registered and participated on the democrats side. Once the nom is settled, they will come together in a perfect storm that will set America back on a sane course. McBush may not win a single state. Who would vote for more of the Mcsame we"ve been put through?
Oh, and I''''''''d like to personally thank that great American, Rush Limbaugh, for his contribution in this growing tsunami via OPERATION BACKFIRE.
Perhaps a new moniker is in order, El Rushbo. How about LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH! Its PERFECT! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! Single-handedly turns the general election into a ROUT! Good ol LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH. Remember to be careful what you wish for, LANDSLIDE.
Thank you sir......with all that talent lent to you by GAWD-D it is now clear EXACTLY where God stands.
Dear God: Thank you for giving us LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH. Amen.
LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH...........................
Short-sighted, simple-minded, arrogant, pompous OAF!
YES or NO??? Simple one word answer is all I''''''''m looking for.
Posted by truthyness at 06:25 PM : May 07, 2008
If she manages our budget the way she manages her own campaign finances---we''d be in a depression for longer than 5-6 years!
No, its not your business, it is your hangup--because if they are voting for skin color--there is NOT a *** thing you can do about it except whine, whine, whine , whine , whine. Grow up and take your vote with you. Kudo''s for voting for anyone and McCain is as good as Bush---so you know you could have done worse--(You and others of your ilk could have succeeded in putting that corrupt piece of work (HRC ) in the white house) Unfortunately for you--not enough people outside of her core supporters like her enough to give her either money or votes.
Glad to know you are another Dem defector *** sore loser---so when we say Hillary is to blame--we can point to you among many and the divide HRC continued with her venomous campaign. LOL Must really suck to be you right now.
Hillary represents the less fortunate people who are struggling to pay their food and gas, how can they contribute to elections? She knows it is difficult. But they all want her to be President, and that is the reason why she carries on spending her own money to win this election. If we all stand with her we will see a new dawn in politics, a real change with a lady President who really cares - and she will prove herself to be the BEST AMERICA EVER HAD.
"THE LADY IS NOT FOR TURNING" !!! GO HILLAR, ! RIGHT TO THE CONVENTION, and WIN IT FOR US!!!.
Posted by brianp55 at 06:34 PM : May 07, 2008
I''ll second that!
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Posted by truthyness
We love white people we use to work for them for free! lol
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