The Democratic Race Is Over

The New Republic: But Obama's Support Has Narrowed Dangerously--And He'll Need To Make Changes To Beat McCain

(The New Republic)  This column was written by John B. Judis.

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The Democratic primary is over. Hillary Clinton might still run in West Virginia and Kentucky, which she'll win handily, but by failing to win Indiana decisively and by losing North Carolina decisively, she lost the argument for her own candidacy. She can't surpass Barack Obama's delegate or popular vote count. The question is no longer who will be the Democratic nominee, but whether Obama can defeat Republican John McCain in November. And the answer to that is still unclear.

During the last two months, Obama has faltered as a candidate. He has seen his political base narrow rather than widen, and some of his strengths turn into weaknesses. Of course, he has had to deal with the scandal surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright, but even so, he needs to remedy certain flaws in his political approach if he wants to defeat McCain in the fall. Here is a brief list:

The Base: As the primaries have proceeded, he has become more dependent on strong, almost unanimous, support from African American and young voters. For instance, he lost the California primary in February, but he still beat Clinton by a whopping 55 to 35 percent among white men. In North Carolina, where the white Democratic electorate is liberal and tolerant (only five percent of the primary electorate voted against Obama because of race, compared to over 11 percent in Pennsylvania and Ohio), Obama could still win only 36 percent of white voters. In the fall, when African Americans will only make up about 23 percent of North Carolina's electorate, he would have to win 38 percent of all whites to carry the state.

Ideology: In the Iowa Caucus, Obama defeated Clinton among "moderate" voters by 33 to 31 percent and barely lost "conservatives" by 22 to 21 percent. He was perceived as a middle-of-the-road candidate or, even better, as standing above ideology. But he increasingly is seen as the "liberal" or even "very liberal" candidate. In Indiana, he bested Clinton among liberals 55 to 45 percent but lost moderates by 53 to 46 percent and conservatives by 65 to 35 percent. He can't carry that political image into the fall and hope to defeat McCain. In most of the swing states that he would need to win, liberals occupy a much smaller niche than they in the Democratic primary. Moderates are the key. They make up 45 percent of the electorate in Virginia and 43 percent in Colorado--two states that the Obama campaign thinks it could win.

Forcefulness: In the 2004 election, voters repeatedly expressed their preference for a "strong leader," but Obama has yet to establish himself in this respect. He is regularly judged more "honest and trustworthy" than Clinton, but those qualities have proved less important to choosing a president. In Indiana, voters thought Clinton more qualified to be commander in chief by 54 to 43 percent. Nine percent of Obama voters acknowledged that Clinton was "more qualified to be commander in chief." In North Carolina, eleven percent of Obama voters preferred Clinton. Obama appears to be somewhat effete, which will, unless remedied, cause him difficulty against McCain in the fall, particularly among white males.

Policy priorities: Obama based his campaign against Clinton on his vote against the Iraq war and on a promise to change "Washington." But the public's priorities have changed. In New Hampshire, 31 percent thought the war the most important issue. In Indiana, only 18 percent of voters thought that. Still, Obama seems far more comfortable talking about the war and government reform. In his stirring speech, he stumbled when he started talking about jobs being shipped overseas. He has to be able to drive home his differences with McCain on the economy if he wants to broaden his political base.

Values and religiosity: Obama initially held his own among voters who attend church regularly. In New Hampshire, he bested Clinton by 37 to 32 percent among weekly churchgoers--and he didn't have to include religious African Americans in the total. But Obama has increasingly lost this vote and gained adherents among the non-religious. In Indiana, he lost to Clinton among weekly and occasional churchgoers but defeated her among those who never attend church. That can hurt him in the fall in states Obama wants to win. In Virginia, for instance, weekly and occasional churchgoers made up 83 percent of the general electorate in 2004. The challenge for Obama will be to reach out to religious voters without reminding voters of his ties to Reverend Wright.

Can Obama turn it around? As he showed last fall and winter, when he suddenly regained his footing as the Iowa primary approached, Obama is capable of refocusing his energies. And now--with Clinton clearly out of contention--he will have a chance to do so.

[acoloradoguy]

As soon as the media runs out of Hillary vs Obama stories, they''ll move on to Obama vs McCain. Then the tough questions that McCain has been avoiding will surface and we''ll see how HE fairs under more media focus. So far, he''s gotten a bit of a free ride, having won his nomination so easily. Most Americans have resigned themselves to the war running as usual until we have a new administration. Everyone''s resigned to Bush''s veto power until then. McCain''s pro war position will fall flat with voters.

[tejasdemo]

Yea, Obama is terrible. Why dont we just elect a consortium of all these know-it-all pundits who profess to consantly have alllllll the answers.

Ridiculous

[element51]

In all probability Obama will fall victim to what I call the "John Wayne Syndrome". For years the republicans have been very effective at presenting their candidates as tough, strong, macho cowboy types much like John Wayne was in all his films. American white men, for the most part, admire that image and Obama does and cannot re-invent himself to conform to that. Here we have McCain who is perceived to be an "American Hero" kick arse and take names kind of guy against a man who believes in the power of negoation first. If you look at the last election, the republicans took a man who clearly did not fulfil his military duty and turned him into a war hero. They took a man who not only volunteered to serve but actually put boots on the ground and turned him into an anti-war wimp and a total looser. How? Because he thought he could use intelligence to explain his positions. Unless Obama can find a way to show that he has a huge pair on him, he cannot beat Macho McCain. In politics image is everything and reality is usually ignored.

Now please make a nice long list of the reasons that John McCain can''t beat O''Bama, I''ll get you started:
Keeting 5 connection, possibly close to getting alzheimers, Pastor Hagee ( McCains Rev. Wright ), his temper, his marrying for money ( if it''s good for Kerry it''s good for McCain ), his voting record, his embrace of Bush who tried to destroy him. His advanced age. His misstatements. His comments about Vietnamese. That''s just a start.

[reader42]

Hey, now that the "witch" may be on her way out, BOTH BO and McCain may actually face some scrutiny. I think both have had a "pass" on several issues, while Hillary has conveniently been the fall "guy." No comment was too insulting, no agenda too low and no activity too sorry to blame or ascribe to HRC.

I predict both men will "deplore" the "sudden" nasty tone this campaign may acquire come fall. . .

[tawpdawg11]

*** "Is Clinton Done?"

I don''''t know if Clinton is done but McBush and the GOP sure are. So many new voters have registered and participated on the democrats side that I think McBush will be SWEPT in November.

Oh, and I''''d like to personally thank that great American, Rush Limbaugh, for his contribution in this growing tsunami via OPERATION BACKFIRE.

Perhaps a new moniker is in order, El Rushbo. How about LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH! Its PERFECT! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! Single-handedly turns the general election into a LANDSLIDE! Good ol LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH.

Thank you sir......with all that talent lent to you by GAWD-D it is now clear EXACTLY where God stands.

[cincigal74]

Onama will not have the Clinton supporters votes.I,personally will never vote for him.I am not alone in this.We need a tough,no nonsense preson who knows how to get the job done and that is definitly not Obama.What we do not need is an on the job trainee.We have had one of those for the past eight years,and the blacks and the fools are making the same mistake the religious right made in 2000 and 2004.I''m not saying that black people are fools.I am refering to the young people who are supporting Obama.They havent a clue of what they are doing.They will learn though,and in a hurry.The majority of them never worked a day in their lives.They had better get ready to pay their dues and support the DNC because the majority of us have stopped paying.Dean even had to pay some of us back.We will see how they like paying dues.

[ramos937]

Mr. Judis is full of it. No one has the required 2025 delegates at this time with more primaries to go. Mrs. Clinton would do well to ignore writers like him who have their own agendas.

Remember, it is not over until the fat lady sings and Clinton has not done that yet.

[acoloradoguy]

The only real Democrats that Obama will lose are the racists, IMO. No one in the media really wants to talk about it, but the demographics speak for themselves. The votes Hillary won with the biggest margins were old blue collar white folks. We all know a few...

[destardi]

Stupid Dems...You lost the moment you didn''t speak out about Florida and Michigan, but ignored the 3 other states that moved their primary dates and broke "the rulez".

You''ll never win with Obama...but that''s what you get for allowing the most liberal youth vote...that''s why republicans lost control to the Neocons.

Obama''s dead meat..don''t say we didn''t warn you.

[destardi]

Thank you sir......with all that talent lent to you by GAWD-D it is now clear EXACTLY where God stands.



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Posted by TawpDawg11 at 06:12 PM : May 07, 2008
+ report abuse

Nope. Obama bailed on the true blue, solid core Dems, in favor of the fickle "youth vote" and a small black voter percentages...

Obama''s going down in NOvember..and I''m a former Democrat disgusted at my party for counting out Michigan and Florida.

good luck with that..you''re going to need all the help you can get.

[majorreed1]

All this hoopla about who will be the candidate of the Democrat Party. By the way, why do they call themselves the Democratic Party. Democratic is an adjective. It seems to me that they are the Democrat Party. Democrat is a noun. Whether they are democratic or not is arguable. Anyway, isn''t it a fact that the poor choices made by the Democrat Party in selecting their front runners, makes them extremely likely to lose the election in November?

[element51]

cincigal74....So you are saying that just "young blacks" are fools? And which of the three candidates has been president before? By defination, all three would be learning on the job. Evidently, you are satisfied with things as they are now. You like that 4.00 a gallon gas and you enjoy seeing how many bodies are coming home in a bag each month? So go ahead and vote for McSame. Desert your party and go pout like a 12 year old who didn''t get her way. It appears that you care more for your chosen candidate than you do for your country. I don''t think we''ll really miss you that much.

[sparks224]

New McCain slogan:
Old White and Crazy, ya can''t beat that!

[sparks224]

When W leaves office, the folks that voted for him can finally have that beer with him. But he''ll have to buy because they''re all broke.

[dudzim]

Bullsh-t !!!

It is the Republican Party that will need to make (huge) changes to beat Democrats. Eight years of Republican dogma have screwed US.

Historically, we (the US economy and individually) have demonstrably done better, economically, under Democratic leadership - a simple fact.

Then, again, it is not about parites beating parties ... it''s about us/US, about leading ... leading a nation.


M

[bluestardad]

McCAIN WONT CARRY HIS HOME STATE!

AMERICA IS FED UP WITH REPIGS!

START WAR CRIMES TRIALS NOW!

AMERICA STAND UP OR SHUT UP!

[oldtom12]

I agree with terrikraus. Whether far left or far right, CBS should give more background on these guest columnists. Outside of Fox News, most people are not aware of which way these media or political organizations are biased. If someone used to be on Bush''s staff or worked for Air America at one time, that should be noted.

CBS owes us more than what they are giving us here.

[mbburch06]

Conservative bias??? This is not a CBS article; it came from The New Republic. Get a clue.

[davidlar2]

Hillary is the anti-Libertarian candidate. If she is the Democratic nominee, McCain will get the Libertarian vote by default.

Assuming she is gone, the Libertarian vote is in play. Will either Obama or McCain reach out to try to get it? Probably not and that is unfortunate....

[yeahsure69]

Obama has preached no specifics in his campaign. His main point is that he will bring change to washington !!!!

yet he hasen''t said how ? In fact he copies plans detailed out by other people. Has he ever had one original idea ? Putting your trust in someone who is taking advantage of the current atmosphere in the country is folley and proof positive for a disaster.

As a white democrat should he win the nomination I will be voting republican.

[ranger1948]

If the democratic party gives the nomination to this racist and terrorist sympahtyzer, then the republicans have already won another term.

[rational_1]

Assuming she is gone, the Libertarian vote is in play. Will either Obama or McCain reach out to try to get it? Probably not and that is unfortunate....
Posted by davidlar2 at 11:55 AM : May 08, 2008

Why would Libertarians vote for a socialist? Obama is seriously to the left and doesn''t strike me as at all appealing to Libertarians.

[joecoolswat]

If the democratic party gives the nomination to this racist and terrorist sympahtyzer, then the republicans have already won another term.
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Posted by ranger1948

Precisely....Excellent point...

[joecoolswat]

blues ****....If you ask me..I say you shut up....excuse us for defending our country, they drew first blood...not us.

[tucano2]

The "main stream media" so enamored with ''bama he may well get the nomination, and if so will wind up going in the toilet in November ''08 much to the hidden satisfaction of the pseudo-liberal "main stream media".

[cbsespo]

Barack Obama will win enough of the enlightened vote to win the Presidency. Regardless of race,gender,faith, or philosophy the majority of Americans can see the possibilities that Obama represents. I am so looking forward to his Presidency.

[wooleywews]

We need Hillary to take the moderate vote. McCain will take the conservative and moderate vote and Obama will be left with the liberal vote only. A sure way to lose a election.

[vastr-wcon]

.
As hussein said: "I could no more disown reverend wright than I could disown my ... grandmother."

Many Democrats simply do not want the party to make the same mistake twice by nominating another Kerry-like shallow, arrogant, platitude-spouting, gas-bag - who is so mentally deficient from extensive drug use he even has to plagiarize his hollow platitudes!.

hussein is clearly an outrageously unacceptable candidate for any elected office or position of responsibility in America.

One thing is certain: millions of Dems will leave the party if Tony Rezko''s sleazy-deal partner is nominated. Until that horrible event occurs, responsible Dems like Hillary will fight to save what was once a great political party from a take-over by the "God Da''mn America" ultra left wing.

/

[mbcsmith]

Barack Obama will win enough of the enlightened vote to win the Presidency. Regardless of race,gender,faith, or philosophy the majority of Americans can see the possibilities that Obama represents. I am so looking forward to his Presidency.


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Posted by cbsespo at 01:47 PM : May 08, 2008


Exactly who are the "enlightened"

[wooleywews]

Barack Obama will win enough of the enlightened vote to win the Presidency. Regardless of race,gender,faith, or philosophy the majority of Americans can see the possibilities that Obama represents. I am so looking forward to his Presidency.

Who are the Enlightened ones? Check out the unemployment rates of Democratic-Socialist countries of Western and Eastern Europe compared to North America over the last two decades. Also check out the Socialist based countries Health Care system compared to the United States. I will let you do the research on the unemployment rates and health care and form your own conclusion if we should follow Obama path.

[jack3213]

NOTHING IS MORE CLEAR TO ME THAN THE ANSWER TO THE QUESTION "WHO WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT?" MCCAIN.
PERIOD. LETS ALL SUPPORT THE BEST CANDIDATE NOW, SHALL WE.

[tawpdawg11]

Barack Obama will win enough of the enlightened vote to win the Presidency. Regardless of race,gender,faith, or philosophy the majority of Americans can see the possibilities that Obama represents. I am so looking forward to his Presidency.


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Posted by cbsespo at 01:47 PM : May 08, 2008


Exactly who are the "enlightened"

Posted by mbcsmith at 03:27 PM : May 08, 2008


Final election results just in:

Voting for Barack Obama 295,000,000 enlightened

Voting for McBush 2 not enlightened

[tawpdawg11]

If the democratic party gives the nomination to this racist and terrorist sympahtyzer, then the republicans have already won another term.
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Posted by ranger1948

Precisely....Excellent point...

Posted by JoeCoolSwat at 01:14 PM : May 08, 2008


We call you guys when its safe to get out from under your bed.

[tawpdawg11]

blues ****....If you ask me..I say you shut up....excuse us for defending our country, they drew first blood...not us.

Posted by JoeCoolSwat at 01:16 PM : May 08, 2008

Aint nothin Cool about you, Joe.

[Syndicate]

Obama is a card board cut out. Looks great from a distance but falls apart upon closer inspection. I know I use to like him now I think he is bad for the country. Maybe he can try again in Eight years after he finishes at least one senate term. I like the way he tries to borrow McCain''s record of being bipartisan. McCain has talked the talk and walked the walk on bipartisan issues. Obama tried to poison the effort. Its all in the Senate record if the press would bother to look.

[paris1969]

How quickly all these pundits forget that a couple of weeks back, Hillary beat Obama in Pennsylvania with double-digits ... he was expected to win in a large black voter state like NC .. so how is it over? .... he is still not electable in a General Election!

[trbundro1277]

NOTHING IS MORE CLEAR TO ME THAN THE ANSWER TO THE QUESTION "WHO WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT?" MCCAIN.
PERIOD. LETS ALL SUPPORT THE BEST CANDIDATE NOW, SHALL WE.


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Posted by JACK3213 at 04:55 PM : May 08, 2008

*** The best candidate is John Edwards! Juan Amnesty McCain is NEVER the best candidate! Why would anyone in their right mind vote for Juan Amnesty mCcBush?

[trbundro1277]

I hate Amnesty McCain!

[trbundro1277]

Juan Amnesty Mccain needs to move down to mexico and be president down there since he loves the mexicans so much! If he is elected president, i''m leaving the country. If the mexicans are gonna come up and take my job, I might as well leave so they can have it!

[trbundro1277]

Juan Amnesty Mccain needs to move down to mexico and be president down there since he loves the mexicans so much! If he is elected president, i''m leaving the country. If the mexicans are gonna come up and take my job, I might as well leave so they can have it!

[trbundro1277]

Juan Amnesty Mccain needs to move down to mexico and be president down there since he loves the mexicans so much! If he is elected president, i''m leaving the country. If the mexicans are gonna come up and take my job, I might as well leave so they can have it!

[trbundro1277]

When Juan Ammesty MCCain becomes president, we need to change the national anthem to Jose can you steal the white mans job buy working for lower wages!

[trbundro1277]

I will never refer to Juan mCCain as my president. He should be refered to as the Mexican president, because helping Mexicans is all her cares about! Us Whites and blacks need to unite and vote for anyone other than Juan Amnesty MCCain. Juan mCbush wants to give 12 million illegals amnesty overnight, and then let 5 million mexicans in legally per year. So what jobs are they going to take when the get here? Ours! Lets unite against giving amnesty to foreigners. Lets look beyond race in this country, and not let foreigner take our jobs. I don''t want illegal mexicans, canadians, Europeans or anyone illegally here to become citizens. All foreigners go back home if you didn''t come here legally!

[trbundro1277]

Juan Amnesty McCain is just a puppet for the Republicans to put up the most liberal candidate on issues possible, just as long as he supports tax cuts for big business, the war in Iraq, and let all the illegals come up with their cheaper labor for big business. Walmart Executives want 100 mexicans for every Walmart store. Lowest prices Always, lowest wages always! Stop Amnesty, Vote Against Juan Mccain!

[blondie4359]

While listening to talk radio on May 7, 2008 They were talking about pro-life and Roe vs. Wade
When asked Senator Obama how he felt... He said that he had 2 young daughters and if they every made a mistake he would not want them to have to be ''Punished''.?? Does that mean he is choosing to kill innocent children including his own grandchildren??
When will this all end with him.??
Not pro Hillary..
Not pro McCain..
Not pro Obama..
They offer no change just same old politics.

[tawpdawg11]

Dems are out-registering Neocons 3-1 for the Prez election .. remember the 2006 election .. same old same old

Posted by oly_joe at 11:07 PM : May 08, 2008

What is getting ready to happen this November will DWARF 2006 results. CHANGE YOU CAN COUNT ON

[tawpdawg11]

McBush and the GOP are staring up into a growing tsunami bearing down on them.

Due to the extended race for the Democratic nomination, MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of new voters have registered and participated on the democrats side. Once the nom is settled, they will come together in a perfect storm that will set America back on a sane course. McBush may not win a single state. Who would vote for more of the Mcsame we"ve been put through?

Oh, and I''''''''d like to personally thank that great American, Rush Limbaugh, for his contribution in this growing tsunami via OPERATION BACKFIRE.

Perhaps a new moniker is in order, El Rushbo. How about LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH! Its PERFECT! HA HA HA HA HA HA HA! Single-handedly turns the general election into a ROUT! Good ol LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH. Remember to be careful what you wish for, LANDSLIDE.

Thank you sir......with all that talent lent to you by GAWD-D it is now clear EXACTLY where God stands.

Dear God: Thank you for giving us LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH. Amen.

LANDSLIDE LIMBAUGH...........................~

Short-sighted, simple-minded, arrogant, pompous OAF!

[tawpdawg11]

Who wrote this? Mind if I re-post it? Thanks:

It''''s just like the Republicans to try to "fix" an election, they crow about democracy but they aren''''t really interested in it, everything''''s gotta be rigged, everything''''s gotta be corrupt, the news has to be managed propaganda, the generals have to lie to the people, the courts have to be stacked, the crowds have to be hand-picked shills, the phones have to be bugged, the experts have to be paid cronies, the oversight committees have to be toothless, the regulatory agencies must be understaffed and lack jurisdiction. The Republicans have a veneer of democratic openness, but it''''s all a fascist illusion. It''''s like the Republican "open market" which requires no federal intervention because it''''s self regulating - HA ! Rush Limbaugh is a pig, and that''''s unjust to pigs. All Republicans everywhere must be swept out - swept out into political oblivion where they belong.

[trbundro1277]

I hate Juan Amnesty McCain!