Non-Democrats Influenced Ind., N.C. Vote

CBSNews.com Analysis: Much Of Apparent Division In Dem Primary Battle Can Be Attributed To Independents And Republicans

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBS News political consultant Monika McDermott.

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Sen. Barack Obama sailed to an easy victory in North Carolina, while Sen. Hillary Clinton edged him out in Indiana. National exit polls conducted for CBS News by Edison / Mitofsky. Research show that each candidate retained the bases they have held throughout the primary season, with state characteristics making most of the difference.

The most intriguing story about the Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, however, is actually about non-Democrats - Independents and Republicans. While self-identified Democratic voters continue to express support for both candidates as the nominee, and overwhelmingly support each in the general election, the story changes among others who showed up to vote today.

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Indiana Results
North Carolina Results
Indiana Exit Poll Data
North Carolina Exit Poll Data

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While much has been made about polarization within the Democratic party, as evidenced by the primary electorate, much of the apparent division can be attributed to voters who do not actually consider themselves Democrats.

Independents

Obama's ability to attract and motivate independent voters has been evident throughout the primary season. Indiana was no exception. In the state's open primary, 23 percent of those voting in the Democratic primary were self-identified independents, and 25 percent were voting in a presidential primary for the first time. Obama won the overall independent vote 53 percent to 47 percent.

In North Carolina the story was different in terms of the vote choice. Clinton won independent voters in North Carolina by four points - 50 percent to 45 percent. These independents, who made up 19 percent of the primary electorate, were more conservative than those turning out in Indiana, 26 percent conservative to 18 percent respectively, potentially accounting for the difference in the results.

The good news for Obama among North Carolina's independent voters, however, is that he may be better able to hold their votes in the general election than is Clinton. Only eight percent of Obama supporters in North Carolina said they plan to vote for Sen. John McCain if Obama wins the nomination. In contrast, 26 percent of Clinton's independents voters would defect to McCain even if she were the nominee.

Despite the difference in the vote tallies between the two states, independent voters in Indiana and North Carolina had many similarities. Both made up substantial portions of each primary electorate, one-fifth in North Carolina and nearly one-quarter in Indiana. Yet, despite their choice to join the voting in their state's Democratic primary, sizable numbers said they plan to vote for McCain in the general election, especially those who support the candidate not in the match-up. They are also much more likely to be dissatisfied with one or the other candidate as the party nominee than are self-described Democrats.

In North Carolina, nearly one third of independents (32 percent) intend to vote for McCain in the general election if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. Similarly, 28 percent of independents would support McCain against Obama. In contrast, only six percent and 12 percent of Democrats would defect to McCain against each Democrat respectively. In Indiana the numbers are somewhat smaller, but still substantial - one-fourth would vote for McCain against Clinton, and one-fifth would do so against Obama. Democratic defections would be, as in North Carolina, six percent and 12 percent respectively.

Much of these results stem from deep divisions in independents' willingness to support the opposing Democratic primary candidate in the general election, again demonstrating the polarization many have attributed to Democrats. Among Clinton's independent supporters in North Carolina, 44 percent would vote for McCain over Obama, and among Obama's independents, 35 percent would defect in the general election if Clinton were nominated.

Independents are also much more likely than Democrats to express dissatisfaction about either candidate as the eventual nominee. In North Carolina, 40 percent and 38 percent of independents would be dissatisfied with Clinton or Obama, respectively, as the nominee. In Indiana the proportions were 36 percent and 32 percent. Democrats themselves are less divided. For example, in North Carolina 33 percent of Democrats would be dissatisfied with a Clinton nomination and 25 percent with an Obama one - 18 points and 14 points less than independent voters.

Republicans

If independents demonstrate divisions among the Democratic candidates' supporters, Republicans demonstrate yawning chasms. Few of the self-described Republicans who turned out to vote in the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and Indiana seem to actually support the candidate for whom they voted. Perhaps most intriguingly, however, is an apparent effort by Republicans to promote Clinton's candidacy when they feel Obama is the better nominee.

In each state Clinton carried the vote of Republican voters - 52 to 44 percent for Obama in Indiana, and 61 to 32 percent in North Carolina. Republicans made up only 5 percent in North Carolina's Democratic primary electorate, but made up 11 percent of the vote in the Indiana Democratic primary, enough to provide Clinton's expected margin of victory.

While taking the time to turn out and vote in the Democratic primaries, Republican voters in both states have plans to vote for McCain in November. In North Carolina, 74 percent and 76 percent of Republicans said they would vote for McCain if Clinton or Obama, respectively, were the nominee. In Indiana, 66 percent would vote for McCain against Clinton, and 61 percent would vote McCain if Obama's the nominee.

The exit polls reveal striking evidence of strategic voting by Republicans in both primaries, voting for the candidate they find least likely to win. Even though a majority of Republicans in each state voted for Clinton, they give Obama the better chance in November. In Indiana where 52 percent of Republicans supported Clinton, only 37 percent think she is more likely than Obama to win in November. In North Carolina the results were similar - while 61 percent of Republicans voted for Clinton, only 48 percent think she is the better general election candidate.

Finally, these voters are participated in a primary in which majorities would be satisfied with neither candidate. In North Carolina's Democratic primary, 60 percent of Republican voters said they would be dissatisfied with an Obama nomination, and 53 percent would be dissatisfied with Clinton as the nominee. In Indiana, 51 percent would be dissatisfied with Obama as the party's nominee, and 56 percent would feel the same about Clinton should she win.

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Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

The National Election Pool Exit Poll was conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. The North Carolina poll included 2,241 voters. The Indiana poll included 1,660 voters interviewed as they left the polls. The margin of error for each survey is two points.

[pepperwood2]

I like others thought Hillary had what it takes. She didn''''t let us down. She took the low road of bitterly attacking & bashing Obama & Rev Wright and close to a $500,000,000 dollars of contributions and still counting.

Bill, Chelsae, Rendell & the Campaign Committee really won. They get paid up front.

After all she is still there for us. That is, for all the Fund Raisers. 35 years experience has PAID off for the Clintons. ITS ALL ABOUT ME. Wheeeeeee this is FUND time. I''''m just warming up. Tide is turning, I repeat, Tide is turning in good old PU.

"Don''''t forget the Superdelegates are on my side and their not happy that Obama doesn''''t know his place." Soooooo Sad what the Clintons & the Old Guard Demos have done to the Democratic Party & its not over yet.

[taddles-2009]

"Like democrats never crossed over into republican primaries in 2000.

Posted by LibH8er at 02:42 PM : May 07, 2008"


I don''t recall this ever happening with the Dems in any race that I''ve watched since 1974. I''ve never heard of any concerted Dem effort to manipulate the Republican primary. If you have any evidence of this actually happening in ''00 I''d love to see it, I''m sure a lot of people would.

[parrot123-2009]

So now I think that we should petition the state of Florida to reinstate the charge against Rush for having someone else''''s Viagara on a plane. I''''m sure he would hate that interference.
Posted by lindaredtail at 02:58 PM : May 07, 2008

That would really be a welcome INTERFERENCE - especially in response to his Chaos *****. Cheers !

[parrot123-2009]

RickNuber,

Like democrats never crossed over into republican primaries in 2000. You are an intelectual lightweight and no longer worth my time.
Posted by LibH8er at 02:42 PM : May 07, 2008

What''s with your obsession with 2000 ?????? This is about now - Now, when we''re in a War against Terror, Mad gas prices, unprecedented increase in food prices all these within the last 2months ..... and your Dumbazz had to go as far back as 2000. Just Fck Off.

[parrot123-2009]

Anyone realised yet that you never read or hear of any self-identified Democrat voting in any Repug primary or even campagning for any Repug ? But there''s more Rush Limbaugh sheepie repugs than ever before. Wonder why they''re this concerned about the Dems - IMO, i''d rather they mind their affairs, especially if they''re truly that excited about 72yr old & senile McCain. Cheers!

[lindaredtail]

Lib8Hoer the Democrats in 2000 (where did that come from)did not have a organized effort like Operation Chaos which is attempting to effect the Democratic primary process. And it has and did yesterday. 7% of Hillary''s votes were from Republicans who took part in Operation Chaos orchestrated by Rush Limbaugh. Seeing she only won by 2 % I think you subtract right? So now I think that we should petition the state of Florida to reinstate the charge against Rush for having someone else''s Viagara on a plane. I''m sure he would hate that interference.

[wmb57]

The poll data is there. Only 5% of those that voted even consider themselves Republican. Of those 61% voted for Clinton and 32% for Obama. This doesn''t look like a grand conspiracy at all.
Republican (5%) 61% 32%

Pray tell why both of the political parties are so all important and so focused on winning that the right of others to vote is not more important. As an independent I can choose , as a member of another party, I still have a choice.

Please stop bickering about the other side, and think about this country instead. Your constant attacks on others votes is nothing but an attempt to disenfranchise voters.

We get the message that only those that agree with you have a right to vote in your view. None of you deserve to win.

[libh8er]

RickNuber,

Like democrats never crossed over into republican primaries in 2000. You are an intelectual lightweight and no longer worth my time.

It''s ok for dems to do it....just not those evil, wascawy repubwicans, right? Go throw some ice in your Kool Aid.

[ricknuber]

And you''''re still a bedwetting lib. Guess we''''re even.
Posted by LibH8er at 01:40 PM : May 07, 2008

How insubstantial. Typical Republican response, label anyone interested in clean elections as a "liberal".

Just like the evil "liberals" who want eVoting machines to be secure and auditable, or the "liberals" who want to know about the thousands of emails the Republican administration illegally destroyed.

Love for true, representative democracy is certainly a "liberal" value these days. What is it you Republicans stand for again?

[libh8er]

You still look like a partisan hypocrite.
Posted by RickNuber at 01:30 PM : May 07, 2008

And you''re still a bedwetting lib. Guess we''re even.

[ricknuber]

"whom not whome"

Nice catch...still makes you look pretty stupid, though. Not all of the primaries were "open", either. The issue of Republicans fraudulently registering in Democratic primaries may be hard to prove, but it is still an issue.

Nice try. You still look like a partisan hypocrite.

[sjc_1]

Do the Democrats want to nominate who the independents select? Independents by nature can go where ever they want when ever they want. Will they be there in November? I think the party has got to examine the outcome on a state by state basis and come up with a good accurate projection for November before deciding on a candidate.

[libh8er]

whom not whome

[libh8er]

So, you''''re comparing perfectly legal and routine political donations to organized voter fraud?
Posted by RickNuber at 01:03 PM : May 07, 2008

Have you been an imbecile all your miserable life? In OPEN primaries, it''s perfectly LEGAL for anyone to vote for whome they choose. Where'' the fraud, assclown....other than you trying to pass yourself off as intelligent??? Does your stupidity know no bounds????

[ricknuber]

"Go whine somewhere else. I''''ll bet you don''''t care about Soros dumping millions in to trying to influence American politics to the left. Or labor unions doing the same."

Posted by LibH8er at 12:51 PM : May 07, 2008

So, you''re comparing perfectly legal and routine political donations to organized voter fraud? Typical Republican logic. It''s only wrong if it benefits the Democrats or independents.

Honestly, do you even read your posts? The Republican double standard knows no shame.

[libh8er]

Congratulations, Republicans. You''''ve managed to corrupt the American people, too.
Aren''''t you proud?
Posted by ibsteve2u at 12:21 PM : May 07, 2008

Go whine somewhere else. I''ll bet you don''t care about Soros dumping millions in to trying to influence American politics to the left. Or labor unions doing the same.

You bedwetting libs are a pathetic bunch.

[libh8er]

BE COOL LIB,, IF YOU NOT BLACK YOU DONT UNDERSTAND AND NEVER WILL , THIS WAS JUST FOR ALL BLACKS THAT DEPENDS ON GOVERNMENT FOR INCOME AND HELP,, OBAMA WILL HELP OUR CHECKS INCREASE AND WE NEED HELP,,, SO CHILL OUT LIB !!
Posted by eatmochickn at 10:17 AM : May 07, 2008

Yeah...Ubama is down wit da struggle. I mean, it was like Snoop and Fiddycent went to Harvard. :) You white guys pretending o be black just crack me up. LOL

[Po Win]

Brimming with unabashed arrogance and a numerical argument that is clearly flawed, Senator Clinton has been asked to withdraw regardless that it has been repeatedly said that neither candidate can accrue enough pledged delegates to win the nomination. That "Clinton and Obama remain statistically tied with John McCain in matchups" further repudiates Leahy''s rationale, arguments rife with cynicism, Richardson''s hubris, and Ms. Pelosi''s posturing which is helping the GOP exponentially, it''s sad. Silence can be a good thing, especially if it''s Floridians who truly need to be silenced. CA, FL, MI, PA, OH, MA, NY are a must........and, although I like Obama, he hasn''t won the most critical blue states....

[omaar-101]

With all the Republican Shinanigans of Rush Limbaugh...Hillary Barely Won Indiana !!

In each state Clinton carried the vote of Republican voters - 52 to 44 percent for Obama in Indiana, and 61 to 32 percent in North Carolina. Republicans made up only 5 percent in North Carolina''s Democratic primary electorate, but made up 11 percent of the vote in the Indiana Democratic primary, enough to provide Clinton''s expected margin of victory.

While taking the time to turn out and vote in the Democratic primaries, Republican voters in both states have plans to vote for McCain in November. In North Carolina, 74 percent and 76 percent of Republicans said they would vote for McCain if Clinton or Obama, respectively, were the nominee. In Indiana, 66 percent would vote for McCain against Clinton, and 61 percent would vote McCain if Obama''s the nominee.

The exit polls reveal striking evidence of strategic voting by Republicans in both primaries, voting for the candidate they find least likely to win. Even though a majority of Republicans in each state voted for Clinton, they give Obama the better chance in November. In Indiana where 52 percent of Republicans supported Clinton, only 37 percent think she is more likely than Obama to win in November. In North Carolina the results were similar - while 61 percent of Republicans voted for Clinton, only 48 percent think she is the better general election candidate.

[omaar-101]

McGovern, (Former Clinton Backer), Urges Her To DROP OUT !!

McGovern Urges Clinton To Drop Out Of Democratic Presidential Race, He Now (Endorses Obama)

Omaar: Im a Southerner, Raised in SC, Lived in NC and Lives in GA, all these states have Voted for Obama.


When Ultra Confederate Southerner George McGovern Now Endorses Obama, thats One He!! of a Statement...Yall

One He!! of a Statement...Yall


(AP) Former Sen. George McGovern, who backed Hillary Rodham Clinton, is urging her to drop out of the Democratic presidential race.

McGovern said Wednesday he has decided to endorse Barack Obama.

After watching the returns from the North Carolina and Indiana primaries Tuesday night, McGovern says it''s virtually impossible for Clinton to win the nomination.

McGovern says he is calling former President Clinton to tell him of the decision and adds that he remains close friends with the Clintons.