Clinton's Fate Hangs In The Balance
This story was written by Charles Mahtesian and David Mark.
If Hillary Rodham Clinton wins in either Indiana or North Carolina Tuesday, the primary election terrain suddenly begins to look more favorable to her than at any other point since Super Tuesday Feb. 5.
For the first time since February, she will enter a month-long stretch of states where a variety of factors leave her well-positioned to win or compete in most of them.
None of the remaining six states hold caucuses, the nominating events where Barack Obama's campaign's organizational strength and savvy shines. Four of the six are closed primaries, which neutralizes Obama's strength among independents and Republicans. None have African-American populations above 10 percent - a key Obama constituency. And two rank among the top 10 states with populations aged 65 or older - a group Clinton runs well with.
Regardless of her performance against Barack Obama in the six remaining primaries, the delegate math remains daunting for Clinton. But if her campaign gains momentum out of Tuesday's primaries, the next six contests in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota may afford enough opportunities for victory to sustain her campaign at least through June 3.
"After Tuesday, most of the upcoming states are really good states for her," said Tad Devine, a strategist for 2004 Democratic nominee John F. Kerry. "She's got some good real estate in front of her."
For Clinton, the run of competitive states is a welcome reprieve after a post-Super Tuesday gauntlet peppered with states that played to Obama's strengths. When Clinton finally broke Obama's winning streak on March 4, her wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island were quickly countered four days later by a landslide caucus loss in Wyoming followed by another landslide primary loss March 11 in heavily African-American Mississippi. Then came six weeks with no contests between Mississippi and Pennsylvania on April 22.
The final stretch of six states begins with the May 13 West Virginia primary, where the few available polls show her with a comfortable lead. Obama has backing from Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall but much of the state political establishment has yet to pick a side.
The signs are promising for the Clinton campaign: She has carried Appalachia to date and only Florida and Pennsylvania have a higher percentage of residents over the age of 65. In an ominous note, a Rasmussen Reports state poll released Sunday reported 57 percent said it was very likely or somewhat likely that Obama shares some of controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright's views about the United States.
Kentucky, another Appalachian state where Clinton holds a commanding lead in the polls, weighs in one week later on May 20. If, as expected, she captures Kentucky, she'll be able to better weather a likely loss in Oregon, where she trails in the polls with little likelihood of catching the better-organized Obama.
As of May 2, Obama had put up $450,000 in ads on commercial television and cable in the Portland market compared to about $101,000, said Mark Wiener, a Portland-based Democratic consultant.
"I think it should be a pretty solid state for Obama," said Wiener. "it's sort of Pennsylvania in reverse-it's not a question of whether he's going to win, but by how much, and can she win enough of the vote to score some kind of moral victory?"
Less than two weeks later, on June 1, Puerto Rico will vote. While Clinton was at first expected to have a significant advantage-she represents the state with the largest Puerto Rican population-Obama managed to win the endorsement of Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila and several other high-profile leaders.
Byzantine local politics clouds the campaign on the island but Clinton has shown an ability to win congressional districts in New York and Florida with high concentrations of Puerto Ricans.
The final states to vote are Montana and South Dakota on June 3. Obama has carried every state that borders the two-but every single one of them held caucus events. With no major metropolitan areas and African-American populations of less than one percent in both states, the Clinton campaign will have no excuses for losing.
Either way, given Obama's delegate lead, a strong finish still may not be enough to alter the outcome.
"If you're fading at the tape and you win, you still win the horse race," says Carter Eskew, a Democratic consultant.
By Charles Mahtesian and David Mark
The Politico If Hillary Rodham Clinton wins in either Indiana or North Carolina Tuesday, the primary election terrain suddenly begins to look more favorable to her than at any other point since Super Tuesday Feb. 5.
For the first time since February, she will enter a month-long stretch of states where a variety of factors leave her well-positioned to win or compete in most of them.
None of the remaining six states hold caucuses, the nominating events where Barack Obama's campaign's organizational strength and savvy shines. Four of the six are closed primaries, which neutralizes Obama's strength among independents and Republicans. None have African-American populations above 10 percent - a key Obama constituency. And two rank among the top 10 states with populations aged 65 or older - a group Clinton runs well with.
Regardless of her performance against Barack Obama in the six remaining primaries, the delegate math remains daunting for Clinton. But if her campaign gains momentum out of Tuesday's primaries, the next six contests in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota may afford enough opportunities for victory to sustain her campaign at least through June 3.
"After Tuesday, most of the upcoming states are really good states for her," said Tad Devine, a strategist for 2004 Democratic nominee John F. Kerry. "She's got some good real estate in front of her."
For Clinton, the run of competitive states is a welcome reprieve after a post-Super Tuesday gauntlet peppered with states that played to Obama's strengths. When Clinton finally broke Obama's winning streak on March 4, her wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island were quickly countered four days later by a landslide caucus loss in Wyoming followed by another landslide primary loss March 11 in heavily African-American Mississippi. Then came six weeks with no contests between Mississippi and Pennsylvania on April 22.
The final stretch of six states begins with the May 13 West Virginia primary, where the few available polls show her with a comfortable lead. Obama has backing from Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Rep. Nick Rahall but much of the state political establishment has yet to pick a side.
The signs are promising for the Clinton campaign: She has carried Appalachia to date and only Florida and Pennsylvania have a higher percentage of residents over the age of 65. In an ominous note, a Rasmussen Reports state poll released Sunday reported 57 percent said it was very likely or somewhat likely that Obama shares some of controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright's views about the United States.
Kentucky, another Appalachian state where Clinton holds a commanding lead in the polls, weighs in one week later on May 20. If, as expected, she captures Kentucky, she'll be able to better weather a likely loss in Oregon, where she trails in the polls with little likelihood of catching the better-organized Obama.
As of May 2, Obama had put up $450,000 in ads on commercial television and cable in the Portland market compared to about $101,000, said Mark Wiener, a Portland-based Democratic consultant.
"I think it should be a pretty solid state for Obama," said Wiener. "it's sort of Pennsylvania in reverse-it's not a question of whether he's going to win, but by how much, and can she win enough of the vote to score some kind of moral victory?"
Less than two weeks later, on June 1, Puerto Rico will vote. While Clinton was at first expected to have a significant advantage-she represents the state with the largest Puerto Rican population-Obama managed to win the endorsement of Governor Anibal Acevedo Vila and several other high-profile leaders.
Byzantine local politics clouds the campaign on the island but Clinton has shown an ability to win congressional districts in New York and Florida with high concentrations of Puerto Ricans.
The final states to vote are Montana and South Dakota on June 3. Obama has carried every state that borders the two-but every single one of them held caucus events. With no major metropolitan areas and African-American populations of less than one percent in both states, the Clinton campaign will have no excuses for losing.
Either way, given Obama's delegate lead, a strong finish still may not be enough to alter the outcome.
"If you're fading at the tape and you win, you still win the horse race," says Carter Eskew, a Democratic consultant.
By Charles Mahtesian and David Mark
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Many of the most inflammatory comments on the internet may be either direct attempts to create divisions within the Democratic party, or may be posted by individuals who have been influenced and agitated by what is known as ''project chaos''.
I find it sad that some of us believe that the use of deception to create division will benefit our nation in any way. This ''ends justify the means'' tactic is destructive and unpatriotic.
Sometimes the means undermine the ends.
I have a proposal:
Let us counter ''project chaos'' with our own mission. Let us take stock of our priorities and recognize the great number of issues we democrats agree upon. We should reach out to one another and find a way to work together. We might even consider reaching out to conservatives. Isn''t that what our candidates want? Isn''t that what is best for our nation and the world? Isn''t that the only way we will truly move forward?
We can name this new mission after the man who ultimately inspired it: We can call it ''PROJECT LIMBAUGH''.
The media continues to be anti-Clinton. Her win should be presented in the proper context of the quality of each of these candidates%u2019s electability!
She is broke !!
Quick Rowdy, you better increase those monthly donations to Hillary that you keep talking about.
But please remember Hillary will get ALL her money back because its a LOAN; you however will only have your memories and a smaller bank balance.
Hillary relies on suckers like you to GIVE your money, while she cleverly LOANS hers.
When this is over she will have a bath in 100 dollar bills because all her 110 million dollar fortune is still there ! But don%u2019t worry she will be thinking of you!
If you thought Obama friendship with terrorist, Rev Wright Support of Hamas, Hamas Supporting Obama was not enough. Read the long but detailed article on Rev Wright and Obama involvement in the ISM.
Bill, Chelsae, Rendell & the Campaign Committee really won. They got paid up front. Millionaires many times over.
After all she is still there for us. That is, for all the Fund Raisers. 35 years experience has PAID off for the Clintons. ITS ALL ABOUT ME. Wheeeeeee this is FUND time. I''m just warming up. Don''t forget the Superdelegates are on my side. Soooooo Sad what the Clintons & the Old Guard Demos have done to the Democratic Party & its not over yet.
Hillary is BEHIND and cant Break Lose
Total Delegate Count
Democrats | 2,025 Needed to Clinch
OBAMA (1,844)
CLINTON 1,688
EDWARDS 18
Republicans | 1,191 Needed to Clinch
MCCAIN 1,328
HUCKABEE 231
ROMNEY 149
CBS News estimates. Includes super delegates.
I don''t recall calling black people names such as you called me. Calling me stupid *** is a direct indication of your level of class. I am glad for you that you make 92,000 a year.
Based on the numbers it has been proven the blacks overwhelmingly voted for Obama. However, tajomari, remember when the general election comes in November, if the Obama campaign is counting on those numbers again, the blacks are only 12% of the population. I would like to know whenever facts are brought up that the African Americans do not like what they hear, it is always considered racist. But it is O.K. for you to say whatever you like. That sounds a little lopsided to me.
For your information, I am African American making 92,000 a year you stupid ***. There is no need to make race such the issue.