Is Florida In Play For Dems?

Politico: Increasing Number Of Hispanic Democrats In Sunshine State Is Key To Dem Strategy

(The Politico)  This story was written by Amie Parnes and Ben Smith.

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Democrats are poised this week to pass a crucial milestone in Florida: 

For the first time, the number of Hispanic Democrats in the state is expected to exceed the number of Hispanic Republicans.

The Florida secretary of state is expected to release the month's voter registration figures to the state Democratic and Republican parties. The last set of figures, released in April, showed a bare majority of 212 Republicans over Democrats among the state's roughly 1.2 million voters who describe themselves as Hispanic on their official voter registration forms. In each month since the state started tracking Hispanic registration more than two years ago, Democrats have gained.

The significance of the numerical flip is mostly symbolic, but it's a powerful symbol at a key moment: Quietly, Democrats are debating whether to mount a full-out, expensive challenge to Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in Florida, or essentially cede its 27 Electoral College votes to the GOP. The Florida Democratic Party, still in the midst of a scheduling battle with the Democratic National Committee that has left the state with no say in the presidential nominating process, points to the numbers to argue that the national party should return to the state.

"They absolutely need to be in Florida," said state Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman, who called the anticipated shift among Hispanic voter registration "historic." "We're winning," she said.

In 2006, according to exit polls, Democrats won the Hispanic vote in Florida for the first time in 30 years, despite a Republican edge of about 45,000 registered Hispanic voters. Florida is one of a handful of states that sorts voter registrations by race. The Department of State releases the monthly figures only to the political parties.

But Florida leaders are still responding to a gloomy Democratic view of the state, which has been led by Republican governors since 1999, and where Gov. Charlie Crist cruised to victory in 2006. Though Democratic officials, in on-the-record conversations, are loath to write off the state, many are pessimistic of their chances in a state whose composition of older voters, security-conscious Jewish Democrats and conservative Hispanics seem tailor-made for McCain.

The question of the viability of Democrats in Florida is interwoven with the argument over the relative electability of Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.). Florida is a hub of older voters, Hispanics, and Jews - all groups with whom Clinton has been relatively strong in key primaries, and Obama relatively weak. If a Democrat can win Florida, Clinton may be the stronger candidate; if the real battles will be fought in Iowa, New Hampshire and the Pacific Northwest, Obama might be a better national standard-bearer.

Clinton's allies have been making this case across the country.

"Hillary runs 10 points better in the state of Florida" than Obama, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh told a Fort Wayne crowd Sunday. "She can carry the state of Florida."

Many observers still see the state as a stretch for either Democratic nominee.

"Republicans should rightly still be considered the favorites in 2008, especially because John McCain has strong military roots and his age should be less of a liability in the snowbird-heavy Sunshine State than almost anywhere outside of his home state," said Tom Schaller, a political scientist at University of Maryland, Baltimore County, who has argued that Democratic presidential candidates should not bother competing in much of the South. Schaller said that Democrats nonetheless have a better shot in Florida than elsewhere in the region, in part because of its growing populations of Hispanic Democrats.

The rise of Democratic-leaning Hispanics offers a suggestion, in the short term, that Democrats can carry the state; in the long term, it's a worrying trend for Repubicans, who have long relied on relatively conservative Cuban voters to buck the national tendency of Hispanics to support Democratic politicians.

"Florida is the only state with significant Hispanic population in which Republicans have won the Hispanic vote for at least the last four cycles," said Florida Republican Party spokeswoman Erin VanSickle, who added that the party's appeal, and efforts, extends past Cuban-Americans. "Republicans are much stronger at turning Hispanic voters at the polls at a much higher percentage rate especially in Hispanic precincts."

But Republicans are battling what Florida political observers say is a powerful rising tide, driven by a changing Hispanic population.

First, a younger generation of Cuban-Americans may be shedding its traditional loyalty to the Republican Party. "We've been noticing a generational trend for the last two or three election cycles," said Susan MacManus, a professor of political science at the University of South Florida. "While their parents and grandparents care about Cuba, the younger generations are a bit removed from that. They'd like to open up travel to Cuba and they're concerned about domestic policies and the war."

In addition to the presidential race, that theory will also be on display in three South Florida House districts, where incumbent Republicans Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and brothers Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart face potentially serious threats from well-funded Democratic Hispanic challengers.

But the Hispanic growth in Orlando and in Central Florida's crucial "I-4 corridor" has also been a factor in the state's Democratic vote among Hispanics. Many Puerto Ricans, for example, have settled in the Orlando area, taking jobs in the state's stable tourism industry, McManus said. Colombians, Nicaraguans and other Hispanics have also moved to the area and typically lean Democrat.

The new numbers may not bode well for McCain - at least not with Hispanic voters.

"I think what you're going to see is a younger generation of Hispanics uneasy with John McCain because of the generational divide," said Richard Stuart Olson, a political science professor at Florida International University. "He seriously represents a different generation, and I would think that you'll see some interesting fractures in that demographic that we've never seen before."

McCain may have other advantages in the state, though, including the primary feud between the DNC and the state party.

"When they take a breath, they're going to see that these Hispanic voters are feeling left out and largely ignored," McManus said of the Democratic candidates.

And it remains unclear whether the longer-term trend is large enough to matter in November.

"I would be surprised if you'd see a huge shift," said Kevin Hill, a political science professor at Florida International University.

"Although you never know. It's Florida, and things change extremely rapidly."

[blkpresident]

Antonn2,

The Obama shuffle don''t need you and your hispanics--waste your lil'' vote on old man McCain. You''ll know who your daddy is after Obama steamrolls old man McCain.

[truthyness]

fLORIDA cannot vote, they are being punished.

You can deny reality, but when the history of this primary campaign is written, the verdict will be that Obama was got the nomination largely for 3 reasons: 1 - The soft and almost infatuated coverage the media gave to Obama through most of the campaign; 2 - The overwhelming negative treatment, bordering at times as mysogynitic treatment, the media has given to Clinton, and 3 - the fear of backlash from black Democrats if Obama is not nominated.
Posted by michael0004 at 11:06 AM : May 06, 2008---

Your reasons give reason a bad name. Your pathological aversion to proper spelling doesn''t help. "Soft and infatuated" coverage for Obama? He needs to know that in light of G-D America Wright, Chicago real estate buddies, the Weatherman Underground, "bitter" Penns and "he''s not black enough-he''s Black Liberation black," or "he''s muslim - he''s Wright''s "black Jesus" puppet." Negative treatment of Clinton? Would that be John Stepalloverus'' moderation? Fear of backlash? Is that like fear of fear? That shows a complete lack of faith in the system that has served us well all these years. Not perfectly, but well. Obama will get the nomination because he got the votes (delegates) period.

[liberalvet]

to gmh1..You are right..your master Obama is toast..many HR Clinton supporters and many Hispanics will never vote for your man.

Posted by Antonn2 at 06:54 PM : May 05, 2008

Antonn2.... attitudes as yours is the exact reason the Republicans continue to outsmart the Democratic party. Area you really so stupid that if your candidate is not selected you would not vote for a democratic candidate at all in the General Election. I support Obama, but I will vote Clinton in the GE if she is elected. I will do eveything in my power before I just standby and allow another Republican to rule this country. All Democrats need to wake up and see the big picture.

[michael0004]

What a bunch of cowards. "If Obama wins, it''''s because superdelegates are too scared to offend blacks." What a crock. The super delegates would offend the MAJORITY of Americans (white, black, asian, etc.) that voted for Senator Obama - not just the black ones. I''''m white, middle class, and both my wife and I voted for Senator Obama. I too would be greatly offended if my vote was thrown out by those who somehow "know better".


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Posted by EddyNewHope at 10:51 AM : May 06, 2008

The superdelegates whose States and districts voted, in some cases overwhelmingly for Clinton, are announcing almost daily that they will vote for Obama. So whose votes are being thrown away? And why? It certainly is not because Obama is more electable. You can deny reality, but when the history of this primary campaign is written, the verdict will be that Obama was got the nomination largely for 3 reasons: 1 - The soft and almost infatuated coverage the media gave to Obama through most of the campaign; 2 - The overwhelming negative treatment, bordering at times as mysogynitic treatment, the media has given to Clinton, and 3 - the fear of backlash from black Democrats if Obama is not nominated.

[eddynewhope]

RField9 - Your selective memory betrays you. Recall that Hillary signed that same agreement that MI and FL don''t count. Senator Obama was not on the ballot in MI so how is that he is "suppressing your vote"? Would you be so "outraged" if Senator Obama was the only one on the ballot and won by default, then wanted to change the rules to make that absurd, single option vote count? Somehow I doubt it.

[eddynewhope]

Clinton and their supporters are going down in flames of hatred, fear, and sour grapes. It''s absolutely pathetic. In their quest to win, they put themselve on par with George W. in their arrogance and self-richeousness thinly veiled over blatant fear mongering and racism. I used to be a die-hard Clinton supporter and spoke out equally vehemently against the "vast right wing conspiracy" that Hillary is now allied with (go figure), and I must say that the Clinton legacy (Bill''s legacy) is forever tarnished if not utterly destroyed.

[eddynewhope]

What a bunch of cowards. "If Obama wins, it''s because superdelegates are too scared to offend blacks." What a crock. The super delegates would offend the MAJORITY of Americans (white, black, asian, etc.) that voted for Senator Obama - not just the black ones. I''m white, middle class, and both my wife and I voted for Senator Obama. I too would be greatly offended if my vote was thrown out by those who somehow "know better".

[michael0004]

To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can''''t carry Florida -- and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win 45 to 48 percent of the white working-class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.

Some Democrats insist Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites ...
Posted by Antonn2 at 07:02 PM : May 05, 2008

Your right Antonn2 and the super delegates know this as well but will not admit it. Obama will end up with many more superdelegates than Clinton which will give him the nomination because the superdelegates and the leaders of the Democratic party feel that if they do not nominate Obama, they will offend blacks and many of these blacks will quit voting Democratic not only this year but for years to come. It is sad, but true that Obama will get the nomination in large part due to what could be described as blackmail (no pun intended).

[lordmi]

to Antonn2 - just stupid. Same as all clintonists.
poor creatures

[lordmi]

never trust a word
a figure ,
when clintonists talk.
ALL, everyone , who calculated "savings" from "Gas Trick" got 28-30. Clinton - 70.
Where from?
Same things with votes count....

hmmmmm
what happened with clinton''s head - occulied by roaches?
Looks like that.
Still gonna vote?

Think, it does not hurt

[metroduck75]

Real Men Love Strong Women.

Hillary''08 All the way!!!

[realtime09]

The headline- "Is Florida In Play For Dems?"

Is a stupid insinuation that two states getting to be counted is a "game" of some kind.

Perhaps the writer of such propaganda should come face to face with a few thousand game players.

[eroosevelt08]

A vote for Senator Obama is a vote for John McCain.

[eroosevelt08]

I love wigs!

[truthyness]

SNAP OUT OF IT AMERICA!!

This is an issue that shoud be faced not instead of later.

With Obama getting 92% of the Black vote, any win by him will be perceived as being the result of Racism.

IS IT REASONABLE to simply assume that the majority of America will accept a President who won as the result of Racism???

[brittanicus-2009]

I knew it that Sen. McCain would flip-flop over illegal immigration. That means all three Presidential nominees, have sold themselves out, to the globalist open-border, free marketeers. Simply put whoever takes the Oval office, will be signing a massive AMNESTY. No matter what the majority of American people want..?

Oklahoma, Georgia, Arizona and several other future-thinking states have enacted their own predator employer sanctions. However, if we just demand our tainted Democrats lead by House Speaker Pelosi endorse the pending Federal SAVE ACT (H.R.4088). We will not have an iron fist bill that will not only strengthen state laws, but it is also all encompassing to remove illegal by ATTRITION from our whole nation.

They will leave by ATTRITION. No jobs available other than citizens? Bye Bye. They will pack up and leave for home. Go & judge for yourself at numbersusa

[antonn2]

To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can''t carry Florida -- and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win 45 to 48 percent of the white working-class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.

Some Democrats insist Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites closely tied to the military. These voters backed Democrats like Chuck Robb and Jim Webb, who are both veterans, but they may not go for Obama. And in the Southwest, McCain will be able to challenge Obama among Hispanics. So to win in November, Obama will have to win almost all of these heartland states. Which is a problem, because even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters "clinging" to guns, religion, abortion and fears about free trade, Obama looked vulnerable in the region. A look at the white working class'' relationship with earlier Democratic candidates underscores the various reasons why.

[antonn2]

he influence of the black liberation theology of James H. Cone appears in the political philosophy of Barack Obama as well as in the recent controversial statement about national pride made by Michelle Obama.

The spiritual role that Chicago''s Trinity United Church of Christ (UCC) and its just-retired pastor Rev. Dr. Jeremiah Wright have played in the lives of Barack and Michelle Obama is well-established, as is the Africontric theology that is the cornerstone of the church''s self-proclaimed identity.

One largely unexamined element of that Afrocentric theology, though, is the pivotal role that black liberation theologian Dr. James H. Cone, Professor of Systematic Theology, Union Theological Seminary (NYC), and his 1969 book Black Theology & Black Power, have played in the life of that faith community. Examining Cone''s theology may enlighten us on Barack''s political philosophy and Michelle''s recently controversial statement about not having been proud of her country until the favorable reception to her husband''s candidacy.

The Trinity UCC website was updated early this year. Before that, Cone''s book was singled out as required reading for Trinity parishioners who wished to more thoroughly understand the church''s theology and mission. That highlighting was removed. Jason Byassee, of The Christian Century Magazine, wrote this about Cone and Trinity in May, 2007:

[antonn2]

McCnNerDeath..You are stupid..your master Obama will never be our President..