INDIANAPOLIS, Ind., May 1, 2008
Obama Doesn't Expect Pa. Repeat in Indiana
Hoosier State Could Be A Potential Turning Point In Tight Democratic Race
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Play CBS Video Video Indiana Voters Focus On Issues As Indiana's Democrats get ready to vote, many are saying they want the candidates to stop focusing on their scandals and place more emphasis on the issues at stake. Cynthia Bowers reports.
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Video Indiana Next For Dems Indiana is the next stop in the Democratic presidential race. The state hasn't had a significant primary in 40 years but after Pennsylvania its importance has increased. Dean Reynolds reports.
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Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both see Indiana as a potential turning point in the race. (CBS/AP)
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Photo Essay Barack Obama A look at the life and meteoric rise of the president-elect.
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Photo Essay Hillary Clinton A look at a life and career full of firsts.
“People are a little more familiar with me in Indiana,” says the senator from next-door Illinois, claiming a better chance than he had in Pennsylvania, where Hillary Rodham Clinton beat him convincingly last week.
It's a view that runs counter to the conventional wisdom, which holds that Indiana is a Rust Belt rematch, advantage Clinton following her victories in other states with large numbers of blue-collar voters.
Before the first speech or TV commercial here, both campaigns sized up Republican-red Indiana as naturally more competitive than Pennsylvania or any other late Democratic presidential primary, including North Carolina, which also votes next week.
As a result, they each see a potential turning point, the front-running Obama eager to wrap up the nomination and Clinton determined to keep her candidacy alive with a strong run through the spring contests.
Compared with Pennsylvania, there are differences in geography, age, religion and rules that permit independents to vote, each of which figures to benefit Obama. Yet Indiana is more rural, and Clinton has the support of Sen. Evan Bayh, the state's pre-eminent Democrat. It is home to a significant blue-collar population, and a spirited gubernatorial primary with a woman on the ballot may help raise turnout among female voters who prefer the former first lady.
“When you do the tote board, there are intangibles that work for Clinton, there are intangibles that work for Obama,” says Fred Yang, a pollster working on the gubernatorial primary.
Proximity to Obama's home state matters, according to both campaigns.
“Indiana borders Illinois and shares media markets, which is a huge help to Senator Obama,” said Howard Wolfson, a top strategist for Clinton. “He has not yet lost a state that borders Illinois.”
Roughly 20 percent or so of the primary electorate lives within reach of Chicago television stations, meaning that thousands of potential voters have been watching Obama in their homes since his successful 2004 Senate election campaign. The part of Indiana nearest Chicago also is home to large numbers of blacks, likely to support Obama overwhelmingly.
Independents and Republicans are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary in Indiana, a change from the Democrats-only rules that applied in Pennsylvania.
That's presumably good news for Obama, who has outpolled Clinton among independents in the contests to date by a combined 55-39 percent.
Then, too, the population in Indiana is significantly younger than in Pennsylvania.
In Indiana, 12.4 percent of all residents were age 65 or older in 2006, according to Census Bureau statistics. In Pennsylvania, where it was 15.2 percent, those voters cast 22 percent of all ballots in the April 22 primary, a total that reflected a well-established tendency of seniors to vote in disproportionately high numbers. Clinton won 63 percent of their votes.
“Demographically, the biggest difference is that that there's a lower Catholic vote compared to Pennsylvania,” said Geoff Garin, Clinton's top strategist. “And as well as she's been doing with older people and blue collar voters, our best group on a pretty consistent basis has been Catholics.”
Catholics accounted for slightly more than a third of the votes cast in the Pennsylvania primary. Clinton won their support overwhelmingly, but split the Protestant vote with Obama.
Garin estimated Catholics will cast roughly 20 percent of the Indiana ballots.
Pete Brodnitz, a pollster working in the gubernatorial race, agreed, and said Protestants likely will cast more than twice as many votes as Catholics in Indiana.
Garin and Yang are at the same firm, and Brodnitz and Joel Benenson, an Obama pollster, are partners. Both pairs say they keep their work separated.
Obama isn't contending this time with a popular governor and mayor, as was the case in Pennsylvania.
Gov. Ed Rendell, together with Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, held down Obama's share of the vote in Philadelphia. The governor won 78 percent of the citywide vote in a gubernatorial primary six years ago, and 85 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs. Obama got 65 percent and 48 percent.
In Indiana, Gov. Mitch Daniels and Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard are both Republicans.
But other factors favor Clinton.
She long ago won the support of Bayh, the state's dominant Democrat, and he has campaigned energetically with her.
Then, too, the 2000 Census found that 29 percent of Hoosiers live in rural areas, considerably higher than the 23 percent in Pennsylvania, and that means a large conservative population, even in a Democratic primary. That ought to be good news for Clinton, who won more than 60 percent of the rural vote in the last primary.
Indiana also is marginally more white than Pennsylvania, and its residents are slightly less well educated, according to the Census Bureau. More good news for the former first lady, based on earlier primaries.
Then there's the gubernatorial primary between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger, a close race that may give women a stronger-than-usual incentive to vote than in Pennsylvania. As the strongest female presidential candidate in history, Clinton has consistently outpolled Obama among women.
Finally, there is an unknown impact of a Republican-crafted state law requiring voters to show a photo identification before they are given ballots. Democratic critics have long claimed it presents an unconstitutional barrier to voting, but the Supreme Court upheld the measure earlier this week.
Impact on a competitive Democratic primary? Unknown.
© MMVIII The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
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See all 441 CommentsBarrack Hussain Obama=Snake Oil Salesman
Hussein Obama: fancy words, and deceptive speeches from a deceptive, power-seeking, Moslem-born and influenced man.
Based on Hussein Obama''s links to all sorts of unsavory, anti-America, anti-White characters (such as EvilDevil Louis Farrakhan, Nation of Islam leader),
and as we continue to see, plenty others,
it is just too risky to trust Hussein Obama ANYWHERE NEAR The White House!
Hussein Obama and his hateful racists are working in ANYTHING BUT America;s best interests!
If obama is elected, in two years it won''t matter, either he will be dead or he will have destroyed this country.
From the very start at South Carolina, that was a viscious attach on Bill Clinton with nothing to support the accusations of racism. What Clinton said was TRUE.
Obama will not call anyone of color to account for their actions and devisive words. WHY?
hE IS A CONFUSED LITTLE BOY, and has no place in Global Politics let alone as President of every color and white.
Present the various lies that you find and ask why they do not present these lies to the public?
Why are they tippy toeing around Sen. Obama. Eventually all this will come out and then it will be too late, the Dems will lose to McCain.
It is time to get this stuff out to as many sites as possible. Show all those waiting for their turn to vote - the real Barack Obama.
From the very start of the year, I felt the inconsistencies in him, his expressions, his body language, his lack of direct converstation. At first I excused it as "hes a typical attorney". But even then he didnt practice much law to learn that demeaner.
As time has gone buy his S T R E T C H I N G of the truth is really just posturing to get the votes. A do anything and say anything, swing hi and swing low, twist and turn PERSON, not just politician - this is his person.
Barack and Michelle will not cure racism in America. No president can. In fact, I sense that they are precisely the ones to make racism deeper AND more surface. It''s because of how they have handled their campaign, the things they have said and their judgement concerning their affiliations and associates.
Hillary Clinton made an excellent point: MLK was an amazing man who fought for equal rights, and he is one of the ones who most definitely stirred LBJ to sign the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
MLK could not have signed the Civil Rights Act into law, and LBJ could not have done what MLK did. Hillary is right.
And Obama hugely played the race card in that instance: I think Hillary offended some folks? Gimme a break. He''s a manipulator.
Is it TRUE that Obama actually sent out a MEMO in the beginning of his campaign, on how to play the race card? How to manipulate and twist things around?
I Just caught Obama in a lie AGAIN !!!
In his speech to to the North Carolina people, Obama told them that 99% of his church is White, and that Rev Wrong was only spouting anti American bigotry for 30 seconds !!!!! ROTFL!!!!
Lies ! ALL Lies !!
Obama the racist is starting to put token white people behind him in his speeches too.
The truth follows on the Obama lie ticker..................................
..........
This is a video of Rev. Wrong and his racist church of the holy anti-American bigot.... Let play the "find a white guy challenge".
Notice,... FAR more then 30 seconds of Rev. Wrong spewing anti-American Bigotry and seeding his ministry with hateful anti- American propaganda and lies.
And don''''t forget that your looking for the white guy in his "99% white" church.....
Copy and paste this video link into your browser.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=jc2FCJ7zWEQ
Or search for:
Barack Obama Pastor Jeremiah Wright NEW TAPES!!!!
On YouTube.com
Have fun playing Wheres Waldo...
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/memo1.pdf
Instead of helping to outsource tech jobs, why doesn%u2019t Billary help to get Americans trained for those jobs.
If Democrats can not stand up for what is right. If Democrats accept the lies and slime of the Clintons. I will resign.
Billary WILL flip congress back to the Republicans.
Posted by OldAbeEagle
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Old Abe, why don''t go ahead and resign. I think people will be very happy if you do. I''m tired of reading that you are going to resign. You keep posting the same thing over and over. Good riddance.
Many of us won%u2019t %u201Cmove on%u201D until we hear the Obamas%u2019 admit they knew about those sermons. Then explain why they didn%u2019t have the decency to leave that church a long time ago.
If Democrats can not stand up for what is right. If Democrats accept the lies and slime of the Clintons. I will resign.
Billary WILL flip congress back to the Republicans.
finally got a chance to pay Reverend Wright a visit and see the church for myself. It sat
flush on Ninety-fifth Street in a mostly residential neighborhood a few blocks down from the Louden Home projects. I
had expected something imposing, but it turned out to be a low, modest structure of red brick and angular windows,
landscaped with evergreens and sculpted shrubs and a small sign spiked into the grass-FREE SOUTH AFRICA in
simple block letters.
And so it went, a meditation on a fallen world. While the boys next to me doodled on their church bulletin, Reverend
Wright spoke of Sharpsville and Hiroshima, the callousness of policy makers in the White House and in the State
House. As the sermon unfolded, though, the stories of strife became more prosaic, the pain more immediate. The
reverend
radical. Others, we ain%u2019t radical enough. Too emotional. Not emotional enough. Our emphasis on African history, on
FROM OBAMA BOOK, Wright says he is radical....interesting
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See all 441 Comments