Obama Doesn't Expect Pa. Repeat in Indiana

Hoosier State Could Be A Potential Turning Point In Tight Democratic Race

(AP)  Barack Obama is looking for a little home cooking in next week's Indiana primary. Counting on it, in fact.

“People are a little more familiar with me in Indiana,” says the senator from next-door Illinois, claiming a better chance than he had in Pennsylvania, where Hillary Rodham Clinton beat him convincingly last week.

It's a view that runs counter to the conventional wisdom, which holds that Indiana is a Rust Belt rematch, advantage Clinton following her victories in other states with large numbers of blue-collar voters.

Before the first speech or TV commercial here, both campaigns sized up Republican-red Indiana as naturally more competitive than Pennsylvania or any other late Democratic presidential primary, including North Carolina, which also votes next week.

As a result, they each see a potential turning point, the front-running Obama eager to wrap up the nomination and Clinton determined to keep her candidacy alive with a strong run through the spring contests.

Compared with Pennsylvania, there are differences in geography, age, religion and rules that permit independents to vote, each of which figures to benefit Obama. Yet Indiana is more rural, and Clinton has the support of Sen. Evan Bayh, the state's pre-eminent Democrat. It is home to a significant blue-collar population, and a spirited gubernatorial primary with a woman on the ballot may help raise turnout among female voters who prefer the former first lady.

“When you do the tote board, there are intangibles that work for Clinton, there are intangibles that work for Obama,” says Fred Yang, a pollster working on the gubernatorial primary.

Proximity to Obama's home state matters, according to both campaigns.

“Indiana borders Illinois and shares media markets, which is a huge help to Senator Obama,” said Howard Wolfson, a top strategist for Clinton. “He has not yet lost a state that borders Illinois.”

Roughly 20 percent or so of the primary electorate lives within reach of Chicago television stations, meaning that thousands of potential voters have been watching Obama in their homes since his successful 2004 Senate election campaign. The part of Indiana nearest Chicago also is home to large numbers of blacks, likely to support Obama overwhelmingly.

Independents and Republicans are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary in Indiana, a change from the Democrats-only rules that applied in Pennsylvania.

That's presumably good news for Obama, who has outpolled Clinton among independents in the contests to date by a combined 55-39 percent.

Then, too, the population in Indiana is significantly younger than in Pennsylvania.

In Indiana, 12.4 percent of all residents were age 65 or older in 2006, according to Census Bureau statistics. In Pennsylvania, where it was 15.2 percent, those voters cast 22 percent of all ballots in the April 22 primary, a total that reflected a well-established tendency of seniors to vote in disproportionately high numbers. Clinton won 63 percent of their votes.

“Demographically, the biggest difference is that that there's a lower Catholic vote compared to Pennsylvania,” said Geoff Garin, Clinton's top strategist. “And as well as she's been doing with older people and blue collar voters, our best group on a pretty consistent basis has been Catholics.”

Catholics accounted for slightly more than a third of the votes cast in the Pennsylvania primary. Clinton won their support overwhelmingly, but split the Protestant vote with Obama.

Garin estimated Catholics will cast roughly 20 percent of the Indiana ballots.

Pete Brodnitz, a pollster working in the gubernatorial race, agreed, and said Protestants likely will cast more than twice as many votes as Catholics in Indiana.

Garin and Yang are at the same firm, and Brodnitz and Joel Benenson, an Obama pollster, are partners. Both pairs say they keep their work separated.

Obama isn't contending this time with a popular governor and mayor, as was the case in Pennsylvania.

Gov. Ed Rendell, together with Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, held down Obama's share of the vote in Philadelphia. The governor won 78 percent of the citywide vote in a gubernatorial primary six years ago, and 85 percent in the Philadelphia suburbs. Obama got 65 percent and 48 percent.

In Indiana, Gov. Mitch Daniels and Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard are both Republicans.

But other factors favor Clinton.

She long ago won the support of Bayh, the state's dominant Democrat, and he has campaigned energetically with her.

Then, too, the 2000 Census found that 29 percent of Hoosiers live in rural areas, considerably higher than the 23 percent in Pennsylvania, and that means a large conservative population, even in a Democratic primary. That ought to be good news for Clinton, who won more than 60 percent of the rural vote in the last primary.

Indiana also is marginally more white than Pennsylvania, and its residents are slightly less well educated, according to the Census Bureau. More good news for the former first lady, based on earlier primaries.

Then there's the gubernatorial primary between Jill Long Thompson and Jim Schellinger, a close race that may give women a stronger-than-usual incentive to vote than in Pennsylvania. As the strongest female presidential candidate in history, Clinton has consistently outpolled Obama among women.

Finally, there is an unknown impact of a Republican-crafted state law requiring voters to show a photo identification before they are given ballots. Democratic critics have long claimed it presents an unconstitutional barrier to voting, but the Supreme Court upheld the measure earlier this week.

Impact on a competitive Democratic primary? Unknown.

[crewmember1]

Well, as long as CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, CNN, and the other major news sources give Hillary a pass on everything she does while entangling Obama in the most minor incidents she will continue to rise. Is that hte point the press is making, that they have the power to make or break someone? Well, indeed,

Our Latest, HRC going on NBC and stating that she will obliterate Iran, a whole country, to prove a point that she''s got the cajonies to bully anyone, and of course to endear herself to the AIPAC Lobby. The rest of the world is aghast but not us in the USA - not the news media, anyway. Hillary said it, it must be all right. Well, have your way and if she gets in there and brings us all to ruin, I''m sure the media will wash their hands of their bias and haranging of Obama.

Get real, CBS. You have a duty to cover news. Can you imagine if Obama said something like this? When a campaigning candidate gets up and states they are willing to obliterate a country, it is news. and it is news that is impacting the whole world.

[DCropp]

Why won''t CBS cover Hillary''s lie about former Indiana company Magnequench?

The company made smart bomb technology and Bill Clinton was president when the company was allowed to be sold to China in 1995.

The former vice president of Magnequench has talked with Hillary and Bayh. Hillary intentionally changed the story she was told and are running ads in Indiana that are blatantly false. She has changed the date in the story to say it happened in 2003 and blamed Bush. It was Bill Clinton that betrayed Indiana and allowed the smart bomb technology company to be sold to China.

[undermyboot]

Billary is about Billary. Billary cares nothing for the Party, the Country, or anyone else.

[broadwayphi]

Obama has the support of working Americans who see past the gas tax pandering and populist posturing of both Clinton and McCain.

Let%u2019s see McCain reject Reverend Hagee, who thinks Catholics are evil and who pronounced Hurricane Katrina %u201CGod%u2019s judgment on New Orleans.%u201D

Let%u2019s see Hillary Clinton start pulling us together instead of race-baiting for her personal ambition%u2019s sake.

[popstom1]

About time they took a hard look at the cheep gold plated politician from chicago and about magneqench
Ha go and talk to the stook holders and they will
say it''s free market Ho and bush could have stoped
anytime so put the blame were it belong''s

[popstom1]

lamo don''t bet on it

[concorde5]

That''s HillBillary

[truthyness]

92% of Black people vote for Obama. When people vote in a "Block" they destroy the very fabric of the Democratic Party, which embraces the equality of the individual.

It Obama wins, it will be by a process that has ceased to be Democratic. For all practical purpose, it will be the "Black Party"

[concorde5]

I see the racists have reared their ugly heads. When Blacks voted 92 percent for Bill Clinton, it wasn''t the Black Party.

Why would it be the Black Party now?

[sgtrds]

Hillary is not going to get the Democratic nomination and she knows it. All she wants to do know is to damage Barack''s chances as much as she can so McCain will win in November and she''ll get to run against him in 2012.

[sgtrds]

Well, as long as CBS, NBC, ABC, Fox, CNN, and the other major news sources give Hillary a pass on everything she does while entangling Obama in the most minor incidents she will continue to rise. Is that hte point the press is making, that they have the power to make or break someone? Well, indeed,

Posted by crewmember1 at 04:46 PM : May 01, 2008

They''re afraid to say anything to her because they know she''ll breakdown and cry.

[myshiba]

Obama''s new theme song:

He''s a real nowhere Man,
Sitting in his Nowhere Land,
Making all his nowhere plans
for nobody.

props to The Beatles

[david1737]

Obama is the clear choice for President in 2008.

[david1737]

Obama 2008.

[erpcat]

92% of Black people vote for Obama. When people vote in a "Block" they destroy the very fabric of the Democratic Party, which embraces the equality of the individual.

It Obama wins, it will be by a process that has ceased to be Democratic. For all practical purpose, it will be the "Black Party"

Posted by truthyness at 05:32 PM : May 01, 2008
____________________________________________
so you are saying there is already a "White Party"? because for over 150 years (give or take a decade or two) 99.5% of white America has voted for a white candidate, so by your theory the fabric of democracy is already destroyed.....

[david1737]

2008 is the year of Obama.

[barkleyq]

TO ALL THE OBAMA SUPPORTERS:

Since the media is refusing to reveal/report the Paul vs Clinton fraud case in court right now, we need to create our own movement and flood every blog on CNN and every blogging website on the World Wide Web with information from the case regardless of what the topic is. For those that don''t know - Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!!

OBAMANACS UNITE!!! LET''S DO THIS!!

[david1737]

so you are saying there is already a "White Party"? because for over 150 years (give or take a decade or two) 99.5% of white America has voted for a white candidate, so by your theory the fabric of democracy is already destroyed.....

Posted by erpcat


Good point!

[sgtrds]

92% of Black people vote for Obama. When people vote in a "Block" they destroy the very fabric of the Democratic Party, which embraces the equality of the individual.

It Obama wins, it will be by a process that has ceased to be Democratic. For all practical purpose, it will be the "Black Party"

Posted by truthyness at 05:32 PM : May 01, 2008
__________________________________
__________
so you are saying there is already a "White Party"? because for over 150 years (give or take a decade or two) 99.5% of white America has voted for a white candidate, so by your theory the fabric of democracy is already destroyed.....

Posted by erpcat at 05:50 PM : May 01, 2008

truthyness ain''t real good at thinking the ignrance of his remarks through. Of course he is a racist republican after all, so that''s to be expected.

[canyoutellme-2009]

I''m *ALL* for Obama... big time..

HOwever, since republicans CAN vote in this primary, you KNOW that Rush and his loyal dittoheads will be voting for Hillary to disrupt this election.. right? It worked in Ohio and it''ll work in Indiana...watch... mark this post.

Hillary is a wench and everyone knows it... Obama will still win the nomination though :)

[haoli25]

It sounds like Little Hussein is getting desperate now. lol

[Cyril100]

STILL NO NETWORK COVERAGE- WE ALL NEED TO GET ON THE STICK AND SCREAM TO THE NETWORKS NOW. Someone must be covering up this story. Have the Clintons got to the judges?
Why is it that the mainstream media has not published even a whisper about tis civil trial going on NOW in Los Angeles Superior Court? Why did Judge Munoz arbitrarily delay the sowrn deposition for Hillary Clinton until AFTER the November elections? Who runs the media in this country?

In the landmark civil fraud case against Bill Clinton in Los Angeles, where the former President is charged with defrauding a Hollywood dot com millionaire to help Hillary Clinton obtain more than $1.2 million from him for her 2000 Senate campaign, Los Angeles Superior Court Judge Aurelio Munoz ruled on April 25 that Hillary Clinton would not be required to testify in a sworn deposition as a material witness in the case until after the November election!

Hillary alone has been protected from explaining her role in her husband%u2019s fraud charges. Hillary Clinton may not be deposed about her role in the illegal solicitation and cover up of the largest contribution made to her Senate campaign until after the presidential election.
Had Senator Clinton be forced to testify under oath, as a material witness and beneficiary of the fraud that her husband is being sued for before the Democratic Convention, her remote chances for being nominated the party candidate would have been unquestionably destroyed.

[rowdytexan2]

STILL NO NETWORK COVERAGE- WE ALL NEED TO GET ON THE STICK AND SCREAM TO THE NETWORKS NOW. Someone must be covering up this story. Have the Clintons got to the judges?

Had Senator Clinton be forced to testify under oath, as a material witness and beneficiary of the fraud that her husband is being sued for before the Democratic Convention, her remote chances for being nominated the party candidate would have been unquestionably destroyed.





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Posted by Serenidad1 at 06:01 PM : May 01, 2008

Because it''s a FRIVILOUS LAWSUIT! And because Paul is a con, and they''ve already discovered he voice overed the *** tape and threw it out!

Are you people just THAT desperate????

[sgtrds]

Barack picks up NC fairly easily and squeaks out a minor upset in IN and nails the final nails on Hillary''s political coffin. the following swing of remaining superdelegates over to his side drives the stake through her heart. after Denver she comes out of the closet and endorses John McCain.

[canyoutellme-2009]

Barack picks up NC fairly easily and squeaks out a minor upset in IN and nails the final nails on Hillary''''s political coffin. the following swing of remaining superdelegates over to his side drives the stake through her heart. after Denver she comes out of the closet and endorses John McCain.


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Posted by SgtRDS at 06:13 PM : May 01, 2008
+ report abuse
--------------------------------------------------------

I predict 2 other outcomes although yours is probably the likely one to happen.

Here''s mine.

After Hillary loses the democratic nomination... Either 1 of the following 2 will happen.

1) She will suddenly run as an independent (Just like Joe Lieberman) and will be kissing the repubs behind (just like JOE Lieberman) and try to get on the ticket that way

or

2) She will become McCain''s VP candidate

[efarris38]

If indeed there is a heavy turnout of rural voters and the female vote is over 55% of the voter turnout, and blue collar workers lean to Clinton then I think Hillary will win Indiana by 5 points. Also look for turnout in southern Indiana near Louisville to be key, this should help Clinton. I predict a 53 to 47 win for team Clinton although some polls show her ahead by as much as 9 points.

[rowdytexan2]

lol, Whatta joke! My son lives in Indiana, and NONE of them are buying it! Indiana is a freaking RED STATE, do you think they''re going to buy in on a freakoid anti=American like Obama?

[randynason]

Both Gov. Richardson and Sen. Bingaman of NM have endorsed Obama. Indiana will be sure to come across for him, as well. That''s his turf.
Hillary can suck on sour grapes, yell and wave her arms all she wants. That''s her M.O.

[demtotheend]

I hope Indiana voters thinking about voting for Clinton realize how despicable her campaign is. Huffington Post just reported on how a senior Clinton aide has been covertly sending out anti-Obama smear e-mails for months: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-dreier/sidney-blumenthal-uses-fo_b_99695.html

[sean5002]

**************************************
You really dont need it President Obama ,You have it all lock up with the Delegate lead , but by all means rack off another 11-0 . And once the BIllarys are put to sleep; Then you can expose the flip floping John Mc_fraud to the American people.

McCain and Clinton voting on the GAS TAX show the old politics will never go away , pandering for VOTES .

And dont want to tackle the GAS COMPANIES with milllion of dollars in fines..and force them to back down ,You are after REAL SOLUTION TO FIX IT ONCE AND FOR ALL.

McCain and Clinton want to cover a bullet wound with a bandaid and fool the American people that they are doing something.~ saving on half of tank~ is not FIXING the problem.

STANDING STRONG AND TALL SHOW REAL LEADERSHIP ALREADY.

[randynason]

lol, Whatta joke! My son lives in Indiana, and NONE of them are buying it! Indiana is a freaking RED STATE, do you think they''''re going to buy in on a freakoid anti=American like Obama?

LOL, for real! Gee- Maybe someone should tell that to all the people that successfully elected Barack as Senator, there.

[sgtrds]

2) She will become McCain''''s VP candidate

Posted by CANYOUTELLME at 06:16 PM : May 01, 2008

She certainly has been campaigning hard enough for that job too. In all honesty it wouldn''t surprise me a bit. She started out as a republican and i have no doubt that she''d switch parties in a heartbeat, considering she''d only be one old and weak heartbeat away from the job she covets the most as McCain''s VP.

Vice-President Hillary Clinton (R).

[sean5002]

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&

You really dont need it President Obama ,You have it all lock up with the Delegate lead , but by all means rack off another 11-0 . And once the BIllarys are put to sleep; Then you can expose the flip floping John Mc_fraud to the American people.

McCain and Clinton voting on the GAS TAX show the old politics will never go away , pandering for VOTES .

And dont want to tackle the GAS COMPANIES with milllion of dollars in fines..and force them to back down ,You are after REAL SOLUTION TO FIX IT ONCE AND FOR ALL.

McCain and Clinton want to cover a bullet wound with a bandaid and fool the American people that they are doing something.~ saving on half of tank~ is not FIXING the problem.

STANDING STRONG AND TALL SHOW REAL LEADERSHIP ALREADY.

OBAMA08. RESPECT IN THE WHITEHOUSE FINNALY .

NO BILL CLINTON RUNNING AFTER YOUNG INTERNS PUTTING CIGARS IN WET PLACES.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by RandyNason at 06:21 PM : May 01, 2008


Mr. Obama was a senator from Illinois, Sir, not Indiana.

[obamasgranny]

You really dont need it President Obama
Posted by sean5002 at 06:24 PM : May 01, 2008
__________________________________________________
This IS a possibility!! I understand Michelle may LET him run for president of the local PTA!! LOL

Bad Obama-Bot!! No Kool-Aid for you!!

[rowdytexan2]

Why would HIllary want to be McCain''s VP, when she can be president??? lol

[philly1550]

HILLARY WILL WIN INDIANA, JUST LIKE SHE WON PENNSYLVANIA...AND EVERY BIG STATE.

HILLARY WILL BE PRESIDENT!

[obamasgranny]

NO BILL CLINTON RUNNING AFTER YOUNG INTERNS PUTTING CIGARS IN WET PLACES.


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Posted by sean5002 at 06:24 PM : May 01, 2008
____________________________________________________
We will long for those days!! It will be Obama chasing Larry Sinclair with a crack pipe!!

NOBAMA 08!!

[rowdytexan2]

You Obama honkers just crack me up!

First you tried to swill her as a liar (totally ignoring Obama''s 936 lies). When that didn''t work, now you try to swill her as a republican. ROFL! That dog won''t hunt either.

If you really check ties to the Bush administration, Mr. Obama''s record (voted for Cheney''s energy bill)(Obama''s campaign supporters also supplies campaign money for Bush) I think you might just find out Obama is not only a liar, but a closet republican himself.

[david1737]

It''s a done deal.

Obama 2008

[sean5002]

#####################

We will long for those days!! It will be Obama chasing Larry Sinclair with a crack pipe!!

NOBAMA 08!!


Posted by OBAMASGRANNY at 06:31 PM : May 01, 2008

======================================================

i FEEL VERY SAD FOR YOU , HOP ON A YELLOW BIKE AND CATCH UP ,

That youtube nut job sinclair.. that was looking for attention and then... The LOSER took a POLYGRAPH and fail miserably what a surprise!! , I guess we all want our 15 mins.

Do you KNOW HOW STUPID YOU LOOK NOW .PLEASE SUPPORT ANOTHER CANDIDATE , WE DONT WANT YOU .

OBAMA 08 .. WHERE MILLIONS HOLD STRONG.

[blackyowe]

He didn''t expect to get into hot water of Rev. Wright either. Obama is to naive to know his party is over.

[rowdytexan2]

Actually Obama and Bush look a lot alike to me.

Two whack jobs at opposite ends of the spectrum, using hate, grievances, and divisiveness for their own agenda.

Bush creates not only civil unrest, but world unrest.

Obama wants to start with civil unrest by accusing everybody of being racist, and teaching his constituents they are they downtrodden and abused, when they live in the freest *** country in the world.

[gracchus1]

Why do all of you rely on polls? Remember how inaccurate the polls proved to be in Pennsylvania? Polls consistently are unreliable, despite their margin of error. Don''t believe the polls.

[Torilin]

Well Obama said so himself, *** Cheney''s his cousin and that''s traceable. So by association he must be a closeted Republican. That may explain why K. Rove is giving him free advice and tips.

[sgtrds]

Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 06:44 PM : May 01, 2008

Speaking of whack jobs! OMG your posts get more over the top and your lies and smears get more outrageous everyday. Careful, you''re turning into as big of a joke and a cartoon character as Hillary is with her increasing shrillness. LOL!

[sean5002]

###############################

let see 48% of the country cant stand Hillary and 58% Dont trust her.

With that math in mind , how is she really getting this Nomination , Unless the superdelegates robs him Russian style .

And with the World and country watching , Barack will be a instant MARTYR; And they would be a injustice cry loud like a GENOCIDE had taken place.

And people who never vote before will come out in FORCE ..JUST to MAKE the BILLARYS PAY. McCain will go on a lopsided win by default.

AND in 2012 Barack will ride in with his war chest full of campaign dollars to a HERO''S WELCOME.

Obama 08 leads in delegates , popular votes.

millions are ready for a uprising.

[canyoutellme-2009]

Obama wants to start with civil unrest by accusing everybody of being racist, and teaching his constituents they are they downtrodden and abused, when they live in the freest *** country in the world.


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Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 06:44 PM : May 01, 2008
+ report abuse

RowdyTexan, you are just a board troll... admit it.. you''re on this place 24/7. It''s kind of sad... but hey, i''ll bite on this.

So, tell me where Obama called ANYONE racist please. I believe everyone was calling OBAMA racist but not vice versa.

BTW, 1/4 of the US is the "down trodden" and "abused" as they''re living below the poverty line (feel free to correct my 1/4 statement because i don''t know how many for sure). And then Bush goes and announces 770 million dollars in world food aid but nothing for the US. That seems like abuse to me.

I agree with you that this is the free-est country in the world, unless of course you''re worried about being wire tapped without a warrant (that gets no press anymore), can be tossed in prison without charges indefinitely (Gitmo, Abugraib), have your property confiscated upon suspicion of guilt but not prosecuted of anything, the list goes on and on...

[obamasgranny]

Posted by sean5002 at 06:41 PM : May 01, 2008
________________________________________________
You''d better read the latest on him and the gay choir leader from Obama''s church,...he turned up dead after calling Larry Sinclair 3 times on behalf of Obama''s campaign,...HUH? I wonder what he knew?

[obamasgranny]

So, tell me where Obama called ANYONE racist please. I believe everyone was calling OBAMA racist but not vice versa
________________________________________
That would be anytime someone critisizes him for anything,...RACIST!! Give me a break!! He plays the race card daily.