May 1, 2008

Wright Uproar Boosts Clinton Confidence

Politico: N.Y. Senator Believes Recent Events Have Twisted The Race In Her Favor

  •  (CBS/AP)

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(The Politico)  This story was written by John F. Harris and Mike Allen.
Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) on Wednesday sent a fundraising e-mail with the subject line “Roaring back.”

For the first time since her humiliating third-place finish in Iowa nearly four months ago, Clinton aides aren’t privately rolling their eyes at their own campaign bluster - even if the evidence of a comeback so far is still less than a roar.

For the past couple of months, Clinton has been resting her hopes - and resisting calls to drop out - on the possibility of a game-changer, some unforeseen event that would change the prism through which the media, superdelegates and average Democrats are viewing her uphill campaign against Barack Obama.

It won’t be clear until the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina whether the game really has changed. But recent days have shown that the ground has shifted in important ways for her.

Some are concrete: better fundraising, well-timed endorsements and a spate of polls showing how Obama’s relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright has broken skin politically. Others are more intangible: crisp performances by Clinton at a time when the usually poised Obama has appeared more rattled than at any time in this campaign, as well as a Clinton campaign team that is no longer defeatist and morose behind the scenes.

By no means are they effusive. Under their best-case scenario, Clinton advisers believe she will be about 100 delegates behind Obama when the primary season ends on June 3.

But if the mathematics of the race has not changed, aides believe the psychology has.

Before, the Clintons knew they were fighting a story line that said she could never win unless superdelegates take the nomination away from a popular African-American who came in first.

Now they hope that they have subtly shifted to a new story line: Superdelegates must think twice before bestowing the nomination on an increasingly controversial politician who has missed repeated opportunities to wrap up the contest with a decisive, big-state victory.

“We always knew she’d win when the press started treating the candidates equally and the voters got her message,” said Terry McAuliffe, Clinton’s campaign chairman.

McAuliffe, who talks to the senator and former President Bill Clinton constantly, said they have always remained optimistic.

“I never thought she’d gone anywhere,” McAuliffe said. “She is the same candidate she’s been for the last 16 months. But now the press is paying more attention to her and she can come back and win.”

McAuliffe is characteristically the most ebullient - even Pollyannaish - of Clinton’s surrogates. But it’s clear that even more jaundiced members of her camp now feel that at least some measure of optimism is justified.

Their scenario depends on emphatic victories in Indiana and, a week later, in West Virginia, fueled by the same type of white, working-class Democrats who backed Clinton in Ohio and Pennsylvania, while keeping an all-but-certain Obama win in North Carolina narrower than is expected.

According to this line of argument, these results would allow Clinton operatives to credibly stoke “buyer’s remorse” feelings among superdelegates.

It remains a long shot by almost any calculation. Last month, a Clinton adviser estimated to Politico that she had no more than a 10 percent chance of winning. And as of Tuesday, Obama has gained 38 superdelegates to Clinton’s eight since the March 4 primaries, when she slowed his momentum with victories in Ohio and Texas.

This means even good news for Clinton comes framed by bad context. The mood inside her campaign is akin to that of a near-terminal patient who gets aproved for new experimental therapies: Maybe something will work.

After sketching her potential path to victory, a Clinton adviser said: “Thirty days ago, I could have given you this rap, but you wouldn’t have believed it. Thirty days later, I can give you this rap and you say, ‘You know, you might be right.’”

“She’s relaxed and she’s in her groove,” crowed a senior Clinton aide who had been downbeat. “The story of this race is these twists and turns.”

And for the moment, the twists have turned in her direction.

This includes the fact that April was the second-best fundraising month for her so far this campaign, helping ease a severe financial drought. She won the endorsement of North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley.

And two recent polls have buoyed her. An Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed her beating Republican John McCain 50 percent to 41 percent while Obama was running 46 percent to 44 percent in the same matchup. A Fox News poll Wednesday showed her outperforming Obama among independent voters.

Most important, the Fox poll highlighted the potential damage Wright has caused Obama. Among Democratic voters, 36 percent said they were concerned either somewhat or a great deal about Wright, and 64 percent said they believed the controversy has hurt Obama’s campaign.

From the Clinton vantage point, the best thing about the Wright story is that it is being driven by the media, rather than by attacks from her, which carry the risk of a backfire among Democrats who want their candidates playing nice.

“Our view is, this is his story,” the Clinton adviser said. “He’s going to have to answer it and deal with it.”

Obama aides say this week’s news cannot obscure the larger reality: Clinton is behind with no obvious paths to getting ahead.

“Superdelegates are her only path to the nomination, and she has been losing them at a rate of 9-to-1 since Feb. 5,” an Obama aide said. “If she can’t get them now, when will she get them?”

By John F. Harris and Mike Allen
Copyright 2008 POLITICO



We cover politics with enterprise, style, and impact.

Add a Comment See all 131 Comments
by lottobee May 4, 2008 11:32 AM EDT
Here''s hoping against all odds that Hillary wins this thing and somehow achieves the impossible. Obama has far too many negatives and the republicans will wipe up the floor with him and we''ll be stuck for another 4 years with a do nothing administration which puts us further and further in debt and does absolutely nothing for the working class. When the republicans start working on Obama we''re going to wish we had all voted for Hillary. If you think this mild campaign has been nasty ---- then put your seat belts on because the enemy has been very busy getting ready for Obama and they sure have more ammo than they''ve ever had before.
Reply to this comment
by ghostdog8 May 2, 2008 9:47 PM EDT
When Hillary wins in Indiana, even if it''s by 1 percentage point, Obama is going to be toast. The superdelegates will swing Hillary''s way. All the recent polls indicate the tide is turning her way.
Reply to this comment
by libra127 May 2, 2008 4:53 PM EDT
Here is Mickey Kantor who was the Chairman of the Clinton-Gore campaign....

Posted by gizmosrick at 11:27 AM : May 02, 2008

THAT VIDEO HAS BEEN DETERMINED TO BE DOCTORED!!

SEE ARTICLE AT:

www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/02/clinton-adviser-claims-in_n_99810.html
Reply to this comment
by philly1550 May 2, 2008 4:48 PM EDT
HILLARY WILL WIN INDIANA.

VOTERS IN INDIANA WILL REMEMBER OBAMA''''S SPIRITUAL MENTOR FOR 20 YEARS REV WRIGHT..WHO IS ANTI-AMERICA.

VOTERS IN INDIANA WILL REMEMBER OBAMA INSULTING SMALL TOWN PEOPLE BY CALLING THEM "BITTER"

VOTERS IN INDIANA WILL REMEMBER THAT AYERS THE TERRORIST WHO BOMBER THE PENTAGON AND POLICE STATIONS...TOOK OBAMA INTO HIS HOME AND KICKED OFF OBAMA''''S POLITICAL CAREER.

VOTERS IN INDIANA ARE TOO SMART TO VOTE FOR OBAMA AND HIS LONG TIME ANTI-AMERICAN FRIENDS.

HILLARY WILL WIN INDIANA.
Reply to this comment
by May 2, 2008 2:54 PM EDT
McAuliffe is characteristically the most ebullient - even Pollyannaish - of Clinton%u2019s surrogates. But it%u2019s clear that even more jaundiced members of her camp now feel that at least some measure of optimism is justified. =============

Hey, George, you got an extra "Mission Accomplished" banner for these pipples?
Reply to this comment
by libra127 May 2, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
This story above is based on comments from her campaign!

Posted by SgtRDS at 12:00 AM : May 02, 2008

Among other things, like polls, fundraising results, and media assessments of the Wright campaign.

But it is disingenuous to say the Wright contraversy is being "kept alive" by the Clinton campaign. The only thing she has said - when asked - is that it is for the voters to decide.

Read the article again:

"From the Clinton vantage point, the best thing about the Wright story is that it is being driven by the media, rather than by attacks from her,..."
Reply to this comment
by libra127 May 2, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
When the Rev. William Procanick put his hand on the Bible...

Posted by shaheed8 at 01:28 AM : May 02, 2008

THIS MAN IS NOT, AND NEVER WAS, THE PASTOR OF HILLARY AND BILL CLINTON.

He is a pastor from Clinton, NY - hence "Clinton''s pastor".

Reply to this comment
by gizmosrick May 2, 2008 2:28 PM EDT
CHECK OUT THIS VIDEO ON YOU TUBE

If you think the "bitter" remark or the Rev Wright hurt Obama, THEN YOU SHOULD LOOK AT THIS VIDEO...

Here is Mickey Kantor who was the Chairman of the Clinton-Gore campaign and he is an ADVISOR to Sen. Clintons capaign now.

This is what he said:
Kantor: "Look at Indiana - 42-40. It doesn''t matter if we win; those people are ***. How would you like to be a worthless white ni***r?"

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/2/93316/53926/838/507664
Reply to this comment
by gizmosrick May 2, 2008 2:27 PM EDT
If you think the "bitter" remark or the Rev Wright hurt Obama, THEN YOU SHOULD LOOK AT THIS VIDEO...

Here is Mickey Kantor who was the Chairman of the Clinton-Gore campaign and he is an ADVISOR to Sen. Clintons capaign now.

This is what he said:
Kantor: "Look at Indiana - 42-40. It doesn''t matter if we win; those people are ***. How would you like to be a worthless white ni***r?"

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/2/93316/53926/838/507664
Reply to this comment
by sgtrds May 2, 2008 1:16 PM EDT
McCain/Clinton 08.
Reply to this comment
by blkpresident May 2, 2008 1:09 PM EDT
Clinton-Steinem ''08?
Reply to this comment
by blkpresident May 2, 2008 1:08 PM EDT
Jane Fonda, Patty Hearst and Hillary Clinton...

Vote smart Indiana and North Carolina. Don''t let lil'' Hillary decide who the next Secretary of Defense is(Jane Fonda?) or the next US Attorney General is, Patty Hearst?).
Reply to this comment
by ladymack10 May 2, 2008 12:48 PM EDT
TO ALL THE OBAMA SUPPORTERS:

Since the media is refusing to reveal/report the Paul vs Clinton fraud case in court right now, we need to create our own movement and flood every blog on CNN and every blogging website on the World Wide Web with information from the case regardless of what the topic is. For those that don''t know - Google Paul vs Clinton and hold on to your shirt with what you read!!

OBAMANACS UNITE!!! LET''S DO THIS!!
Reply to this comment
by tawpdawg11 May 2, 2008 12:28 PM EDT
I have heard from a friend of mine who is a Roads Dept. engineer that the Federal Highway Trust Fund will be bankrupt by 2009. Is this true? Does the federal gas tax support this fund? Can any experts out there answer? If these are true statements then Clinton and McCain are irresponsible in suggesting suspending this tax. Does road-building mean jobs and money for YOUR state Indiana and North Carolina? Can you afford to risk 4 more years of irresponsible leadership? Be sure to lube up before you vote for EITHER of those two.
Reply to this comment
by rowdytexan2 May 2, 2008 12:23 PM EDT
Obama advocated attacking Al Quaeda in Pakastan when no one else would; Bush cricised him but now is doing it.

He''''s advocating market-based healthcare reforms. He''''s advocating abiding by the PAYGO rules on the budget; he''''s the only candidate fighting for fiscal conservatism.

Where''''s the Marxism in that?


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Posted by realpatriot1 at 06:39 AM : May 02, 2008

So why is he proposing $800 billion dollar budget when the country doesn''t have it?

Why is trying to pass a bill to give $845 billion more in foreign aid, for pete''s sakes?

The man has no sense at all.
Reply to this comment
by tawpdawg11 May 2, 2008 12:14 PM EDT
Concerning the commitment yesterday of 3 more delegates to Obama as well as a decommit from Clinton to Obama, perhaps the Democratic Superdelegates feel the same as I do....I''''m not voting for ANYONE who is touted by Bill O''''Reilly and Rush Limbaugh!
Reply to this comment
by rowdytexan2 May 2, 2008 11:52 AM EDT
Posted by realpatriot1 at 06:39 AM : May 02, 2008

Because his agenda is Marxism, not democracy.

He''s mouthing platitudes and lies.

We''ve had one president on the extreme right causing unrest. Why put in one on the extreme left who''s doing the same thing? They''re both whack jobs with their own agenda.
Reply to this comment
by rowdytexan2 May 2, 2008 11:49 AM EDT
Posted by craigh9 at 07:53 AM : May 02, 2008

Who care what old gas bag Wright said! The problem is Obama''s lies!
Reply to this comment
by craigh9 May 2, 2008 10:57 AM EDT
Barack talking about that? Not a peep.




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Posted by tomtomasters at 07:56 AM : May 02, 2008

Nor has Hillary, as is appropriate
Reply to this comment
by tomtomasters May 2, 2008 10:56 AM EDT
Is Barak Obama supporting Rev. Al Sharpton and speaking out against the NYC police for gunning down a black brother Mr. Sean Bell. Bell, who was going to his wedding, was unarmed when police fired at him 50 times outside a Queens Club on November 25, 2008, when he was doing nothing, and they acquitt the cops who shot 50 times to make sure they killed him! Is Barack talking about that? Not a peep.

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