Alaska Drilling Rears Its Head Again

By Martin Kady II

(The Politico)  When oil prices skyrocket, inevitably Republicans will talk about drilling in Alaska and blame Democrats for blocking proposals that would open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for petroleum exploration.

President Bush didn't disappoint drilling advocates at his Tuesday morning press conference, calling again for drilling ANWR.

Few people have bothered asking exactly how much oil might be produced if the Arctic refuge is opened up. The answer: not much in the scheme of things _ around 1 million barrels per day. And the Alaska oil wouldn't hit the market for another 10 years.

According to this report from the Department of Energy, at its peak capacity in 2025, ANWR would produce 1 million barrels of oil a day, only reducing world oil prices around 30 cents to 50 cents a barrel. Even if all the ANWR oil stayed in the United States, it wouldn't dramatically affect the nation's 20 million barrel a day oil consumption habit. And isn't this quaint _ the 2004 report linked above is based on a $27 a barrel cost of oil. Today oil is going for close to $120 a barrel.

The Energy Department report, which was published during the last vigorous ANWR debate in 2004, notes that oil imports might be reduced by a mere 4 percent, so the country would be importing 66 percent of its oil from foreign countries instead of 70 percent. And none of this would happen until 2025.

"The impact on world oil prices is not expected to be significant," the report says.

Democratic counterproposals to stop filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve wouldn't have much of an impact either. According to various reports, this maneuver might reduce gas by five to ten cents.