June 26, 2009 5:13 PM
- Text
GOP Plans $500,000 Hit On Obama, Dems
(The Politico)
This story was written by Josh Kraushaar.
For months, GOP operatives spoke with dread of the prospects of running against Barack Obama in the fall. But after weeks of controversies over his former pastor, his views of blue-collar voters and even the sincerity of his patriotism, Republicans now are ready to place a $500,000 bet that Obama will be a heavy burden on down-ballot Democrats.
That's the approximate amount of advertising purchased so far by the National Republican Congressional Committee and GOP allies to link Democratic congressional hopefuls in Mississippi and Louisiana to their party's potential presidential nominee.
Whereas Obama once seemed an almost cultlike figure who transcended race and class, the narrative that has emerged from his campaign's recent trials has given Republicans hope that the Illinois senator can be tagged as an elitist with the same effectiveness with which Michael Dukakis and John F. Kerry were so labeled.
The elitist story line has provided Republicans with press release fodder against freshman Democratic House members and statewide elected officials in roughly two dozen states.
Republican-leaning districts could be particularly fertile ground for Obama-focused attacks, GOP officials say. "I think he's the weaker candidate, and I've thought that for over a year now," NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) said at a briefing on Monday. "He's very inexperienced. He is by any definition liberal and to the left of Hillary Clinton, and he will give us plenty of ideological divisions to work with."
Besides the two special congressional elections in Mississippi and Louisiana next month, Republicans believe they can also exploit Obama's vulnerabilities in House battlegrounds where he has struggled to win over key demographic groups. Those areas include three culturally conservative seats in Pennsylvania, where Obama lost badly in last week's primary, and three Cuban-American districts in Florida that Democrats are seriously contesting for the first time.
In the Deep South, Republicans think making an explicit connection to Obama will allow them to hold on to districts where Democrats have gained traction by recruiting culturally conservative candidates who have distanced themselves from the national party.
"If they voted up here the way they were running, believe me, they could come here and join the [conservative] Republican Study Committee in good standing," Cole said.
In Mississippi and Louisiana, where Democratic challengers Travis Childers and Don Cazayoux are seen as having real chances to win historically scarlet-red congressional seats, Democratic officials say the GOP is grasping at straws.
"The NRCC and its GOP allies are desperate to distract voters from their extremely flawed candidates," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Communications Director Jennifer Crider.
But those concerns aren't deterring a collection of groups from testing the waters with anti-Obama ads in Mississippi and Louisiana. The NRCC, the conservative advocacy group Freedom's Watch and the campaign of Mississippi candidate Greg Davis combined have put up about $500,000 in advertising explicitly connecting Cazayoux and Childers to Obama.
The NRCC is up with a new spot in Mississippi's 1st District in which Childers is flanked by Kerry and Obama. The ad refers to Obama's ranking by National Journal as having "the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate."
Davis' newly released ad invokes Obama's controversial former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, arguing that Childers should have spoken out against Wright's divisive rhetoric but instead "said nothing."
"Travis Childers. He took Obama's endorsement over our conservative values," a narrator in the ad goes on to say.
Both Democrats have distanced themselves from Obama, arguing that the races hinge more on local issues than on the national landscape.
But Cole argued that if Republicans can pull off twin victories in the special elections, the advertising connecting the candidates to Obama will have played a key role in closing what were once Democratic leads.
Both polling and actual election results have shown the Democratic candidates ahead in the two races. In Mississippi, Childers nearly picked up Sen. Roger Wicker's former House seat in the first round of special election balloting but missed an outright victory by several hundred votes. He faces Davis in a runoff next month.
In Louisiana, Cazayoux's campaign has released two internal polls showing him with a lead over his Republican opponent, former state Rep. Woody Jenkins. The NRCC's internal polling has shown similar numbers, and the committee just commissioned a new poll to see if the Obama connection has made an impact.
At the briefing, Cole cited internal committee polling from earlier this month that showed Arizona Sen. John McCain leading Obama 65 percent to 30 percent in a head-to-head matchup in Mississippi's 1st District. In Louisiana, the committee has polling that shows only 37 percent of districtwide voters view Obama favorably, while 50 percent view him unfavorably.
Republicans also run a risk in playing the Obama card so early. If Democrats are able to pick up one of the special election seats in these highly conservative districts, it may indicate that a cookie-cutter approach connecting Obama to congressional candidates might not work as well as advertised.
"When they do the guilt by association, it's particularly egregious. It's kind of goofy," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who is handling polling for both Childers and Cazayoux.
The overt use of Obama as a bogeyman also runs the risk, particularly in the South, of creating racial connotations that could backfire. McCain and the Republican National Committee last week denounced an ad from the state GOP attacking Democratic gubernatorial candidates Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore for their ties to Obama.
"No one underestimates the power of race in the Deep South, but at the same time, I think they're barking up the wrong tree," said Anzalone. "They think they have a great opportunity by pulling the race card here, but I think they've really gotten off message." Anzalone said his numbers show Cazayoux holding his support among white voters despite the Obama ads.
Democrats point to the Obama ads as a potentially risky move in these Southern districts that have a significant share of African-American voters.
"That's a pretty daring move when the district is 30 percent African-American," said one Democratic operative. "What they're clearly trying to do is depress the white turnout."
Still, Obama's weakness among blue-collar, working-class voters has not gone unnoticed by members of Congress who may have to share a ballot with him.
Many freshman Democrats who represent culturally conservative districts, including Reps. Christopher P. Carney (D-Pa.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) and Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), have stayed on the sidelines so far in the primary season.
Carney and Altmire are facing highly competitive reelection bids themselves - and last week's presidential primary results could give them new cause for concern. Obama lost every county in Carney's northeastern Pennsylvania district by double-digit margins - including the district's Scranton-area base, by nearly 50 points.
Obama also performed particularly poorly in Altmire's district, losing two key exurban Pittsburh counties within his district - Beaver and Lawrence - with 30 percent of the vote or less.
Four days before the primary, House GOP leader John A. Boehner appeared at a press conference with Altmire's Republican opponent and called on the Democratic freshman to apologize for Obama's remarks about small towns in Pennsylvania. "It's time for Barack Obama to apologize to voters here in Pennsylvania and across the Midwest," said Boehner. "And it's time for his supporters in Congress to defend their constituents and denounce Obama's patronizing rhetoric."
"If I'm John McCain, I think I can win in Pennsylvania," said Cole. "[Democratic freshmen] are worried they'll finally have to run with someone whose positions are at odds with what they believe."
In Florida, Republicans believe that Obama's comments that seem to advocate a more normalized relationship with Cuba will benefit Republicans in three heavily Cuban-American districts in South Florida who are facing contested reelection bids.
DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) has been campaigning in South Florida this week with three Democratic recruits running against Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.).
By Josh Kraushaar
For months, GOP operatives spoke with dread of the prospects of running against Barack Obama in the fall. But after weeks of controversies over his former pastor, his views of blue-collar voters and even the sincerity of his patriotism, Republicans now are ready to place a $500,000 bet that Obama will be a heavy burden on down-ballot Democrats.
That's the approximate amount of advertising purchased so far by the National Republican Congressional Committee and GOP allies to link Democratic congressional hopefuls in Mississippi and Louisiana to their party's potential presidential nominee.
Whereas Obama once seemed an almost cultlike figure who transcended race and class, the narrative that has emerged from his campaign's recent trials has given Republicans hope that the Illinois senator can be tagged as an elitist with the same effectiveness with which Michael Dukakis and John F. Kerry were so labeled.
The elitist story line has provided Republicans with press release fodder against freshman Democratic House members and statewide elected officials in roughly two dozen states.
Republican-leaning districts could be particularly fertile ground for Obama-focused attacks, GOP officials say. "I think he's the weaker candidate, and I've thought that for over a year now," NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) said at a briefing on Monday. "He's very inexperienced. He is by any definition liberal and to the left of Hillary Clinton, and he will give us plenty of ideological divisions to work with."
Besides the two special congressional elections in Mississippi and Louisiana next month, Republicans believe they can also exploit Obama's vulnerabilities in House battlegrounds where he has struggled to win over key demographic groups. Those areas include three culturally conservative seats in Pennsylvania, where Obama lost badly in last week's primary, and three Cuban-American districts in Florida that Democrats are seriously contesting for the first time.
In the Deep South, Republicans think making an explicit connection to Obama will allow them to hold on to districts where Democrats have gained traction by recruiting culturally conservative candidates who have distanced themselves from the national party.
"If they voted up here the way they were running, believe me, they could come here and join the [conservative] Republican Study Committee in good standing," Cole said.
In Mississippi and Louisiana, where Democratic challengers Travis Childers and Don Cazayoux are seen as having real chances to win historically scarlet-red congressional seats, Democratic officials say the GOP is grasping at straws.
"The NRCC and its GOP allies are desperate to distract voters from their extremely flawed candidates," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Communications Director Jennifer Crider.
But those concerns aren't deterring a collection of groups from testing the waters with anti-Obama ads in Mississippi and Louisiana. The NRCC, the conservative advocacy group Freedom's Watch and the campaign of Mississippi candidate Greg Davis combined have put up about $500,000 in advertising explicitly connecting Cazayoux and Childers to Obama.
The NRCC is up with a new spot in Mississippi's 1st District in which Childers is flanked by Kerry and Obama. The ad refers to Obama's ranking by National Journal as having "the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate."
Davis' newly released ad invokes Obama's controversial former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, arguing that Childers should have spoken out against Wright's divisive rhetoric but instead "said nothing."
"Travis Childers. He took Obama's endorsement over our conservative values," a narrator in the ad goes on to say.
Both Democrats have distanced themselves from Obama, arguing that the races hinge more on local issues than on the national landscape.
But Cole argued that if Republicans can pull off twin victories in the special elections, the advertising connecting the candidates to Obama will have played a key role in closing what were once Democratic leads.
Both polling and actual election results have shown the Democratic candidates ahead in the two races. In Mississippi, Childers nearly picked up Sen. Roger Wicker's former House seat in the first round of special election balloting but missed an outright victory by several hundred votes. He faces Davis in a runoff next month.
In Louisiana, Cazayoux's campaign has released two internal polls showing him with a lead over his Republican opponent, former state Rep. Woody Jenkins. The NRCC's internal polling has shown similar numbers, and the committee just commissioned a new poll to see if the Obama connection has made an impact.
At the briefing, Cole cited internal committee polling from earlier this month that showed Arizona Sen. John McCain leading Obama 65 percent to 30 percent in a head-to-head matchup in Mississippi's 1st District. In Louisiana, the committee has polling that shows only 37 percent of districtwide voters view Obama favorably, while 50 percent view him unfavorably.
Republicans also run a risk in playing the Obama card so early. If Democrats are able to pick up one of the special election seats in these highly conservative districts, it may indicate that a cookie-cutter approach connecting Obama to congressional candidates might not work as well as advertised.
"When they do the guilt by association, it's particularly egregious. It's kind of goofy," said Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who is handling polling for both Childers and Cazayoux.
The overt use of Obama as a bogeyman also runs the risk, particularly in the South, of creating racial connotations that could backfire. McCain and the Republican National Committee last week denounced an ad from the state GOP attacking Democratic gubernatorial candidates Beverly Perdue and Richard Moore for their ties to Obama.
"No one underestimates the power of race in the Deep South, but at the same time, I think they're barking up the wrong tree," said Anzalone. "They think they have a great opportunity by pulling the race card here, but I think they've really gotten off message." Anzalone said his numbers show Cazayoux holding his support among white voters despite the Obama ads.
Democrats point to the Obama ads as a potentially risky move in these Southern districts that have a significant share of African-American voters.
"That's a pretty daring move when the district is 30 percent African-American," said one Democratic operative. "What they're clearly trying to do is depress the white turnout."
Still, Obama's weakness among blue-collar, working-class voters has not gone unnoticed by members of Congress who may have to share a ballot with him.
Many freshman Democrats who represent culturally conservative districts, including Reps. Christopher P. Carney (D-Pa.), Jason Altmire (D-Pa.), Brad Ellsworth (D-Ind.) and Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), have stayed on the sidelines so far in the primary season.
Carney and Altmire are facing highly competitive reelection bids themselves - and last week's presidential primary results could give them new cause for concern. Obama lost every county in Carney's northeastern Pennsylvania district by double-digit margins - including the district's Scranton-area base, by nearly 50 points.
Obama also performed particularly poorly in Altmire's district, losing two key exurban Pittsburh counties within his district - Beaver and Lawrence - with 30 percent of the vote or less.
Four days before the primary, House GOP leader John A. Boehner appeared at a press conference with Altmire's Republican opponent and called on the Democratic freshman to apologize for Obama's remarks about small towns in Pennsylvania. "It's time for Barack Obama to apologize to voters here in Pennsylvania and across the Midwest," said Boehner. "And it's time for his supporters in Congress to defend their constituents and denounce Obama's patronizing rhetoric."
"If I'm John McCain, I think I can win in Pennsylvania," said Cole. "[Democratic freshmen] are worried they'll finally have to run with someone whose positions are at odds with what they believe."
In Florida, Republicans believe that Obama's comments that seem to advocate a more normalized relationship with Cuba will benefit Republicans in three heavily Cuban-American districts in South Florida who are facing contested reelection bids.
DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) has been campaigning in South Florida this week with three Democratic recruits running against Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.).
By Josh Kraushaar
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