Electoral Map Favors Democrats This Fall
Downtrodden Economy, War, And Public Mood For Change From Bush Pose Enormous Challenges For GOP
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A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting.
Both parties count on victory in dozens of states that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a longtime Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.
Eight of the states went for President Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. Far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest states - decided by 2 or fewer percentage points - voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the GOP won by 1 point.
Both sides argue that their candidates can expand the playing field by making more states competitive than in previous elections. But they likely will only spend time and money to test that theory once they feel confident about higher priority states.
"This is going to be a tough campaign. I have no illusions how hard we have to work to win," McCain says, a sobering assessment of a Republican's chances when most voters say the country is on the wrong track under a GOP president.
Conversely, Democrats exude confidence that Nov. 4 will break their way - even as they continue their nomination slugfest.
"I have every reason to believe we're going to have a Democratic president," Clinton argues. Obama declares: "We will beat John McCain in November. You can take that to the bank!"
Recent polls, however, show McCain competing strongly with both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups, and Republicans and Democrats envision a close race.
In 2004, Mr. Bush won 286 electoral votes to 251 for Kerry. This year's Democratic nominee must triumph in all the states Kerry won, and pick up 19 more votes to prevail - or come up with another game plan to reach the magic number. McCain, for his part, must fend off Democratic challenges to hang on to the GOP advantage.
DEMOCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES:
Of the 14 battlegrounds, Mr. Bush won eight with 97 electoral votes. Half were decided by only 1 or 2 percentage points, and all were under 10 points. Five have Democratic governors this year. Electoral votes are in parentheses.
We will beat John McCain in November. You can take that to the bank!
Sen. Barack ObamaTo the east, Iowa (7) holds promise for the Democrats; Republicans narrowly put it into their column in 2004 after years of Democratic dominance. Both Obama and Clinton competed here during the primary. McCain's opposition to ethanol subsidies complicate his chances, nor is he a favorite of evangelicals. Though less likely to change hands, Missouri (11) is a perennial battleground.
McCain also must defend the two vote-rich prizes that decided the past two elections.
Ohio (20), a bellwether that tipped the race to Mr. Bush in 2004, may be poised for a switch, with a rash of job losses, high numbers of Iraq casualties and a series of Republican statewide political defeats in 2006, including the governor.
Florida (27), which put Mr. Bush in the White House in 2000 and voted for him again in 2004, will certainly be hard-fought, given its electoral treasure chest. Its demographics are tilting more Republican, though, and Obama has fared poorly in the primaries among Jewish and Hispanic voters. Clinton may have a better shot.
Virginia (13) is a case where Obama, who is black, might play stronger than Clinton because of the state's large black population. The state moves into the competitive category given Democratic gains fueled by the growing Washington suburbs. Virginia also is home to large communities of military veterans who may have an affinity for McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.
REPUBLICAN OPPORTUNITIES:
Kerry won six of the hard-fought states offering 69 electoral votes that McCain will try to put in the GOP column. All were decided by under 5 percentage points. Most have Democratic governors as well as long histories as swing states.
In the upper Midwest, Minnesota (10) has a quirky independent streak that presents an opening for McCain. It also has a Republican governor and will host the GOP's national convention. Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (17) have high numbers of Reagan Democrats that McCain could attract. But voters in all three states are reeling from economic woes, and that works in the Democrats' favor.
New Hampshire (4) fell to Kerry by a razor-thin margin four years ago and, Democrats captured two House seats two years later. But McCain has a close bond with the state that made him in his first presidential primary in 2000, and saved him this year.
It's been 20 years since Pennsylvania (21) voted Republican. Further complicating McCain's chances: The state's economy is bad and many Pennsylvanians have died in Iraq, the war he staunchly supports. Still, conservative swaths that are home to right-leaning Democrats could give McCain an opening. As usual, the Philadelphia suburbs figure to be pivotal.
Oregon (7) has become more competitive in recent elections, but Democrats have won it in each of the last five. McCain hopes his moderate image and support for curbing climate change will tip the state to Republicans.
WILD-CARDS:
Beyond the core states, several others are worth watching.
If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, Arkansas (6) will certainly be contested. It has voted Republican in back-to-back elections but her husband, a former governor there, carried it twice. West Virginia (5), too, could be a target given that Bill Clinton won it twice and it's home to a large number of the working-class voters she attracts.
Should Obama be the nominee, Democrats say they hope to put solid Southern GOP states in play, those with large black populations. Among them: North Carolina (15) and Georgia (15), and possibly even Louisiana (9) and Mississippi (6). But these are unlikely targets unless the Democrats think the election is in hand.
Democrats also say they may look at Montana (3), which has a Democratic governor, and Kentucky (8), which twice voted for Bill Clinton. But they're also long-shots.
McCain should hold his home state of Arizona (10) despite Democratic threats to play there. He sees potential opportunities in Democratic-leaning states on both coasts because of his appeal to voters across the political spectrum. These include Washington (11) and Maine (4), and, perhaps, even New Jersey (15) and Delaware (3). McCain also talks big about California (55) but the last Republican to win there was George H.W. Bush in 1988.
By Liz Sidoti
© MMVIII The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.



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See all 157 CommentsSaaaaaaaaay, wasn''t this the news network that miscalled the Florida decision, on the evening of election day ?
So, if they can''t get it right after the fact, your going to believe them BEFORE the fact this time.
Yup, Dan Rather''s influence is alive a kicking at SeeBS!
Only if Hillary wins the nomination, you pick Obama, you just voted another Republican in Office, because up against Obama, John McCain will win.
Well, it sounds like you are incapable of a headache to me.
Try to live in reality, life will get better.
Progressive Radio has, for the past 2 years, been yelling to its listeners that it is time to "take our country back" and it appears they might. If true, it would put to a halt, temporarily, the attempt by the neocon Fascist Nazi Republicans to convert the former US into the ideal neocon paradise Nazi Fascist state, the United Socialist States of America, which would be run by the rich, the powerful, and Corporate America and to the devil with the average citizen!
However, the Great Emperor views this as only a temporary setback as he, as well as the other neocon Fascist Nazi Republicans, believes that the average citizen is gullible and stupid and will accept anything that the Nazi Republicans will barf up.
In the meantime, the Great Emperor is more concerned about "converting" his daughters from their foolish, youthful ways of looking at supporting the Whimpo-crats and supporting the REAL MASTERS of the country:
the Neocon Fascist Nazi Republicans!!!
SIG HEIL, BUSH!!!!
sig heil, (more of the same) McCain!!!!
Watch NBCs Tim Russert, Brian Williams , Barack Obama & John Edwards..Its revealing as all outdoors !!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gBO1
37t79k
http://yidwithlid.blogspot
.com/200
8/01/clintons-arab-connection-
why-arent.
html
Note: Had Barack Obama had all this Arab Money as the Clintons, He wouldve never made it, thus far. But the Mass Media has given the Clintons a Paa, a Blind Eye, Every Angle, Every Pass and thats not Equitable. I get mad at Obama, for not Releasing these Truths and more, about the Clintons !!
The Dubai Ports Deal (United Arab Emirates) 911 terrorist who Piloted the Planes !!
Bill Clintons, Dubai Business deal (Millions) that Bill says, hell Dissolve, (IF) Hillary wins the Presidential Election, Bille said (IF) ?
The 10 Million Dollars per Year from the Royal Saudi Arabian Family, to Bill Clinton. The Saudi Arabians Piloted the 911 Planes also !!
The Saudis Chairing the Board of the (500 Million $) Bill Clinton Library !!
Money (Millions) from Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and many other Arab Nations.
Norman Hsu: Bill Clintons Communist Chinese Connection.
Note: You might as well call Bill & Hillary (Hussein) oppose to Clinton
Source: You Tube...Type in Hillary Clinton (Liar) and get the Full Details , The Full Facts !!
This election is coming down to a white v black vote - with a candidate''s values trumping the issues like war and the economy.
The Bill Moyers'' interview of Rev. Wright last night was very revealing. This wild eyed crazy preacher is still stuck on slave ships of 300 years ago. He boasts that he can get away with outrageous statements in America - that would get him killed in many other countries of the world - for treason.
Americans do not want to elect a president who has been listening to treason for 20 years. It is a no wonder that his wife has no pride in her country and he is ashamed of a little flag pin.
Obama''s preacher is not going to be in the news for 6 straight months; $4 gas and a tidal wave of foreclosures with their ripple effects through the economy WILL be what is on voters'' minds.
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Posted by terrywood1 at 11:09 AM : Apr 26, 2008
WHATEVERRRRRR she has a better chance of winning then Barack...he can''t carry the blue collar voters...only the blacks which only make up 13% in the united states...he will lose...watch and see...don''t forget florida and ohio don''t like him.....and penns, pretty much will go for McCain if its between then two....and Michigan hmmmmmm well since we don''t have the right count for them..sounds like they need to do a re-do (for florida and michigan) and if it goes to Hillary then are fare and square......
NOBAMA 08!
No Racist for president!
WWJWD "What would Jeremiah Wright Do?"
eeramos1 12:03 PM
I''ve seen this same post for three days now, and I have no idea what it means, who you''re making fun of, or what.
If that''s all that you''re going to post, why even bother?
If the Dems only win the states that werre blue in 2000 & 2004 the results will be the same.
The Republicans have been winning because they understand that you win a national election by
running a national campaign. The more red states you put in play the more places McCain has to use his limited funds to hold and that limits his chances for targeting blue states for pickup. You also have a greater probability to turn red to blue if you''re competing in 12 red states than 3.
The war and the economy are unpopular everywhere. Look at the state polls. I can''t speak for all of the south, but i guarantee you that North Carolina''s 15 electoral votes are very much in play and it would be idiotic to forfeit them to a broke McCain. Polls show Obama-McCain tied at 47 here but McCain leads Hillary 51-40.
She can''t win without winning a nailbiter in Ohio while holding EVERY previously blue state.
There''s also the symbolism of essentially telling the country that you intend to govern by writing off significant parts of the country. McCain isn''t in the 9th Ward of New Orleans expecting to win many votes, he understands he symbolism of running to be the President of all the people.
This is a foreign concept to Hillary who only knows how to slice and dice and divide the electorate.
Shes clearly the weaker fall candidate, which is why
every Republican from Rush Limbaugh to mudrose is talking her up.
So she was raised on lies. Maybe that''s why she lies so much. Maybe it isn''t her fault. Maybe she''s just a product of her environment.
Maybe so, but if it is - that environment has made her unfit to be President. If she really was raised that way, that means it''s permanent and irreversable. She can never change. Maybe that''s why she acted so blase when her Bosnia lie was pointed out.
Open, blatant lying is a form of flaunting power. She''s telling us, yah she did something wrong on purpose right in front of everybody. And yah she doesn''t care if someone noticed. She WANTS people to notice what a liar she is. So she can prove she can do something intentionally wrong, and the use her POWER to escape from any punishment. Sorta like the reason Bill had so many affairs. To prove he can be a "bad boy" and get away with it.
ESCAPE FROM PUNISHMENT is the ultimate power. If she wins in November, it will prove she has that much power. If she doesn''t, it won''t matter. It''s a self-fulfilling proof.
BUT DO WE REALLY WANT THAT KIND OF INTENTIONALLY EVIL PERSON IN CONTROL OF THE MOST POWERFUL NATION ON EARTH?????
And we HATE everbudy who disagrees with us,
because we''''re tolerant and diverse
Baa, baa, baa
--------------------
It''s to prove what self-righteous judgemental hypocrites the Hillary sheep are. They deny that she lied about Bosnia, but they add that they would approve if she DID lie. And yet they reserve the right to react with moral indignation if they believe someone ELSE lies.
That''s fanaticism. That''s hate.
They still think Hillary is winning.
That''s fanaticism to the point of stupid.
"I''ve seen this same post [Posted by mocaIeo at 12:50 PM : Apr 26, 2008] for three days now, and I have no idea what it means, who you''re making fun of, or what."
He''s trying to make fun of the mythological "liberal", the non-existent person whom all of limbaugh''s dittoheads passionately hate. Real people, real situations, real policies... these are not something that mocaIeo can deal with. So, he wastes his time spitting venom at his imaginary enemies, the "libs", whom he believes to be atheistic communistic Hillary-loving hate-filled Bush haters. Since he''s unlikely to ever meet such people, he''s free to remain in his fantasy world, spewing his own hatred at the world.
The myth that he has held the popular vote comes right off Axelrod''s desk, and is in fact a lie!
Obama doesn''t have the nomination because he can''t get the votes to win it! And the DNC knows it!
What''s he going to win it with? A bunch of red states that won''t carry a democratic candidate? Count ''em! 16 of his 28 states will not carry him in November!
Get a clue people!
My guess, is that it will be a close race, with Obama making the South competitive and McCain making the Rust Belt competitive... with a slight popular vote edge for McCain.
Your LIES simply demonstrate how DESPERATELY afraid you are of any possibility of real change in this country.
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Posted by IDNNSG at 02:24 PM : Apr 26, 2008
A change from Washington politics to corrupt Chicago politics just isn''t a CHANGE! Sorry!
He represents the WORST of politics I''ve ever seen, not even to mention an anti-American agenda!
McBushcain and Hitlery represent the old, bought and paid for, Fascist Criminal Past.
You and the rest of the 18%er Reich have a snowballs chance. Get over it.
Posted by IDNNSG at 02:21 PM : Apr 26, 2008
Thanks!!
His posts have to be translated from whatever language he types in, to "human", and he''s decrying the "liberals"?
Laughable!!
Break the ''fool vote'' cycle! Vote Third Party!
"Electoral Map Favors Democrats This Fall, Downtrodden Economy, War, And Public Mood For Change From Bush Pose Enormous Challenges For GOP"
Hmmmm - Hillary runs her campaign like a republican, she supports the war like a republican, and the people want a change from "Bush" which Hillary is now emulating.
Sounds to me like she''s doomed!!
Bill Clinton: born 1946
George W Bush: born 1946
Hillary Clinton: born 1947
Barack Obama: born 1961
John McCain: born 1936
Do we really want another Baby Boomer in the White House?
Or do we want John McCain?
It''s really THAT SIMPLE.
ELIMINATE a DEMOCRACY and REPLACE IT -
With The Totalitarian Dictatorship of : A NAZI FASCIST RULE against :
The Populace of the United States and the Rest of The World
Nazi (Delusional-Crying) Hillary and Nazi (racist) Bill
JOB DESTROYER .... WAGE PACKAGE DESTROYER
WORKING MIDDLE CLASS AMERICA DESTROYER
FAMILY UNIT DESTROYER
HOME OWNERSHIP DESTROYER
ECONOMY DESTROYER
CREDIT DESTROYER
DEMOCRACY DESTROYER
ECONOMIC STRIFE - The Endorsement of :
Nazi (Delusional-Crying) Hillary - Nazi (racist) Bill
Criminal Corporate Nazi America
All Nazi (Delusional-Crying) Hillary Supporters
Sounds to me like she''''s doomed!!
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Posted by hungry1968 at 02:35 PM : Apr 26, 2008
You still having those wet dreams, Hungry? Hillary represents core democratics that will NEVER cast a vote for Obama period! As already witnessed!
Give yourself a break!
let see if he can the heat right it''s 3 to 1 that
he walks Off I put $200 on that
It''s a primary election, which means the party will be divided by factions. Anyone who would choose to support John McCain and a third Bush term cannot be labeled a core Democrat - period. This parallels the absurdity of the Clinton argument that only she should be candidate because she won California and New York, as if those blue states would turn red if she were not on the ballot. More diversions to a realistic debate as opposed to thoughtful and candid observations.
vote first Obama now Clinton good show
Obama
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Posted by clemenhagen1 at 03:12 PM : Apr 26, 2008
Watch and learn! We''ve seen core democratic states go down republican before many times, when the democratic candidate is weak like Obama is!
Obama is swilled in corporate American just like every other politician! His voice of change is the biggest laugh of the century!
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Posted by Prinzowhales at 03:16 PM : Apr 26, 2008
lol, Strange isn''t it, you don''t hear a thing about Michelle''s campaign swill do ya!
Obama makes sure the press is occupied elsewhere when he let''s her out!
She''s his weakest link!
Don''t flush your votes down the Obama-let or throw them in the Clinton-can....or see them pi*sed away in the McCain-al....Vote Third Party and get real change!
End the war! End free trade! End open borders! End high energy prices! Single-payer health care!
Vote Third Party!
Then goes out and rolls himself in special interest money.
Hires 47 lobbyists for his campaign team.
Conducts the most ratty, nasty campaign of the century.
Wears his race card on his pocket tab, flashing Racist! Racist! Racist! at anybody that dares to ask him a question or criticize his incompetent plans!
Falls like a cheap empty suit trying to answer questions about the issues, and lies at least six times on national tv!
Pouts and says he''s not going to debate anymore! Those people keep asking me questions I don''t want to have to answer! I want to be able to control the questions and use my teleprompter so someone else can answer the questions for me, because I haven''t a clue!
Talk about the weakest link! He doesn''t even promote the clear successes of the democratic party! He supports his own anti-American swill!
Again, he''s the WORST kind of politician, just like BUSH!
If you have any PROOF that Obama has an "anti-American agenda", then spill it. Otherwise, quit slandering the man! I''ve read his policy positions and heard him speak, but not once did I hear anything "anti-American"!
Repugs just don''t know how to argue the "merits" of their own position, so just throw mud at their opponents. This tells us more about the repugs than it tells us about anything else. (And before you complain about my use of the word "repug" to describe republicans, let me point out that your post is entirely repugnant and, therefore, the term repug is quite apt. And virtually EVERYTHING Bush and Cheney and the neocon cabal of criminals has done in the past 8 years has been totally repugnant.)
lol, Obama has conducted a complete republican shill campaign just like BUSH did!
You people just taking his WORD is just laughably naive! Oooooooo, just listen to what he says!
Go check out sometime what he''s done for this country! Not a *** thing! In all the years he''s been in politics!
Nasty, nasty lying shill!
What is he doing about high energy prices? He and his party fought against expanded drilling in Alaska in 2005 and did nothing when GM destroyed the electric car. He and his party did nothing to secure our oil supplies and the value of the dollar....like Clinton, he is just a Republican shuckin'' and jivin working people.
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