Electoral Map Favors Democrats This Fall

Downtrodden Economy, War, And Public Mood For Change From Bush Pose Enormous Challenges For GOP

(AP)  The electoral road to the White House favors Democrats this fall - either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton - and has Republican John McCain playing defense to thwart a presidential power shift.

A downtrodden economy, the war in Iraq and a public call for change have created an Electoral College outlook and a political environment filled with extraordinary opportunity for the Democrats and enormous challenge for the GOP nominee-in-waiting.

Both parties count on victory in dozens of states that long have voted their way. The competition to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win is expected to play out primarily in 14 states. All but one saw the greatest action in 2004. The exception is Virginia, a longtime Republican stronghold where Democrats have made inroads.

Eight of the states went for President Bush four years ago, including the crown jewels Ohio and Florida. Six, including big-prize Pennsylvania, voted for Democrat John Kerry. Far more electoral votes, 97, are up for grabs for Democrats than the 69 available for McCain to go after. Twice as many of the closest states - decided by 2 or fewer percentage points - voted Republican in 2004; they include New Mexico and Iowa, which the GOP won by 1 point.

Both sides argue that their candidates can expand the playing field by making more states competitive than in previous elections. But they likely will only spend time and money to test that theory once they feel confident about higher priority states.

"This is going to be a tough campaign. I have no illusions how hard we have to work to win," McCain says, a sobering assessment of a Republican's chances when most voters say the country is on the wrong track under a GOP president.

Conversely, Democrats exude confidence that Nov. 4 will break their way - even as they continue their nomination slugfest.

"I have every reason to believe we're going to have a Democratic president," Clinton argues. Obama declares: "We will beat John McCain in November. You can take that to the bank!"

Recent polls, however, show McCain competing strongly with both Clinton and Obama in hypothetical matchups, and Republicans and Democrats envision a close race.

In 2004, Mr. Bush won 286 electoral votes to 251 for Kerry. This year's Democratic nominee must triumph in all the states Kerry won, and pick up 19 more votes to prevail - or come up with another game plan to reach the magic number. McCain, for his part, must fend off Democratic challenges to hang on to the GOP advantage.

DEMOCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES:

Of the 14 battlegrounds, Mr. Bush won eight with 97 electoral votes. Half were decided by only 1 or 2 percentage points, and all were under 10 points. Five have Democratic governors this year. Electoral votes are in parentheses.

Three Western states - Colorado (9), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5) - appear obvious targets for Democrats given their gains in the region, sharp population growth and large numbers of swing-voting Hispanics. But McCain, a four-term senator from Arizona, does well among those voters, too; his Senate support for an eventual path to citizenship for illegal immigrants could help.

To the east, Iowa (7) holds promise for the Democrats; Republicans narrowly put it into their column in 2004 after years of Democratic dominance. Both Obama and Clinton competed here during the primary. McCain's opposition to ethanol subsidies complicate his chances, nor is he a favorite of evangelicals. Though less likely to change hands, Missouri (11) is a perennial battleground.

McCain also must defend the two vote-rich prizes that decided the past two elections.

Ohio (20), a bellwether that tipped the race to Mr. Bush in 2004, may be poised for a switch, with a rash of job losses, high numbers of Iraq casualties and a series of Republican statewide political defeats in 2006, including the governor.

Florida (27), which put Mr. Bush in the White House in 2000 and voted for him again in 2004, will certainly be hard-fought, given its electoral treasure chest. Its demographics are tilting more Republican, though, and Obama has fared poorly in the primaries among Jewish and Hispanic voters. Clinton may have a better shot.

Virginia (13) is a case where Obama, who is black, might play stronger than Clinton because of the state's large black population. The state moves into the competitive category given Democratic gains fueled by the growing Washington suburbs. Virginia also is home to large communities of military veterans who may have an affinity for McCain, a former Navy pilot who spent more than five years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

REPUBLICAN OPPORTUNITIES:

Kerry won six of the hard-fought states offering 69 electoral votes that McCain will try to put in the GOP column. All were decided by under 5 percentage points. Most have Democratic governors as well as long histories as swing states.

In the upper Midwest, Minnesota (10) has a quirky independent streak that presents an opening for McCain. It also has a Republican governor and will host the GOP's national convention. Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (17) have high numbers of Reagan Democrats that McCain could attract. But voters in all three states are reeling from economic woes, and that works in the Democrats' favor.

New Hampshire (4) fell to Kerry by a razor-thin margin four years ago and, Democrats captured two House seats two years later. But McCain has a close bond with the state that made him in his first presidential primary in 2000, and saved him this year.

It's been 20 years since Pennsylvania (21) voted Republican. Further complicating McCain's chances: The state's economy is bad and many Pennsylvanians have died in Iraq, the war he staunchly supports. Still, conservative swaths that are home to right-leaning Democrats could give McCain an opening. As usual, the Philadelphia suburbs figure to be pivotal.

Oregon (7) has become more competitive in recent elections, but Democrats have won it in each of the last five. McCain hopes his moderate image and support for curbing climate change will tip the state to Republicans.

WILD-CARDS:

Beyond the core states, several others are worth watching.

If Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, Arkansas (6) will certainly be contested. It has voted Republican in back-to-back elections but her husband, a former governor there, carried it twice. West Virginia (5), too, could be a target given that Bill Clinton won it twice and it's home to a large number of the working-class voters she attracts.

Should Obama be the nominee, Democrats say they hope to put solid Southern GOP states in play, those with large black populations. Among them: North Carolina (15) and Georgia (15), and possibly even Louisiana (9) and Mississippi (6). But these are unlikely targets unless the Democrats think the election is in hand.

Democrats also say they may look at Montana (3), which has a Democratic governor, and Kentucky (8), which twice voted for Bill Clinton. But they're also long-shots.

McCain should hold his home state of Arizona (10) despite Democratic threats to play there. He sees potential opportunities in Democratic-leaning states on both coasts because of his appeal to voters across the political spectrum. These include Washington (11) and Maine (4), and, perhaps, even New Jersey (15) and Delaware (3). McCain also talks big about California (55) but the last Republican to win there was George H.W. Bush in 1988.

[kansas1946]

(AP) The electoral road to the White House favors Democrats this fall - either Barack Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton - and has Republican John McCain playing defense to thwart a presidential power shift
*************************

Nah. Not to worry. The Democrats are going to make sure that doesn''t happen. As usual, they are their own worst enemy.

[libra127]

POLL: CLINTON HAS BETTER CHANCE THAN OBAMA OF BEATING McCAIN
By Liz Sidoti, Associated Press

Hillary Rodham Clinton has a better chance than Barack Obama of beating Republican John McCain, according to a new Associated Press-Ipsos poll that bolsters her argument that she is more electable in the fall than her rival for the Democratic nomination.

The survey released Monday gives Clinton a fresh talking point as she works to convince pivotal undecided superdelegates to side with her in the drawn-out Democratic primary fight.

Clinton, who won the Pennsylvania primary last week, has gained ground this month in a hypothetical head-to-head match up with the GOP nominee-in-waiting; she now leads McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.

[jack3213]

MCVET- YOU ARE SIMPLY A NUTCASE. LOL

[realpatriot1]

Glock4me,

Keep hope alive knuckledragger!

[glock4me]

The dems will find a way to blow the election despite any so-called advantage.

[sgtrds]

"I''m not a member of any organized political party, I''m a Democrat!"

Will Rogers

[realpatriot1]

Xlib,

In spite of what the far left wants, it would be irresponsible to cut the funding. In order to get the troops home we need to have funding to get them out.

We also need negotiations to get them out and Congress can''t do that. Only a President cmmitted to getting the troops home can get the troops home.

Conservatives claim that Bush isn''t on the ballot but he is. His name has been changed to McCain.

[realpatriot1]

Xlib,

Given the fact that he''s talked about being raised in both cultures like a hundred times and that he''s said his mother was the largeast impact in his life I don''t know what you''re crying about. He''s been doing what you''re saying all along.

Maybe you haven''t been listening because you only hear what you want to. He can''t be expected to unite people who don''t want to be united.

He''s trying to bring people together and so is McCain(to a degree). Clinton has nothing to gain from anything other than division because she began this compaign with 50% disapproval, she can only succeed by teraing down, and that''s all she''s been doing.

Obama can only gain by bringing people together, and those who don''t want that to happen keep inventing phony issues to prevent it from happening.

They haven''t stopped him yet and they won''t.

[truthyness]

Obama says NO to debating Hillary. Why???? Can someone give me an answer that isn''t mediocre??

[hungry1968]

realpatriot-and who will unite the country, obama?? How, by making all Americans sit in pews and listen to hate speeches. The empty suit had the perfect opportunity, early on, to unite us by pointing out the fact that he is the product of a black man and a white woman, that he was raised by white women who made him the man he is today. He did not do that! He totally ignored his white half to pander to the black community. He is a phony and a socialist. I don''''t want either quality in my president. I don''''t care what color he is. Bring on Colin Powell and you have a quality candidate. But no, Powell isn''''t "black enough".

Posted by Xlib at 12:17 PM : Apr 27, 2008





This is a perfect example of the ignorance of the conservatives.

The ONLY thing missing from his post is the word "ni&&er" about 25 times.

Congratulations nitwit - you and the neo cons have ensured the democrats a victory in the fall!!

[mcvet]

IT IS A SMART MOVE THAT OBAMA WILL NOT DEBATE- AND SPEND MORE TIME CAMPAINGING-- TO BEAT CLINTON- CLINTON IS AGAIN SO HIGH ON HERSELF- FOR IF SHE DIDN''''''''T WIN PENN ( NOT BY MUCH, MIND YOU) SHE WOULD NOT BE ASKING FOR A DEBATE- HER EGO AND BILL''''''''S EGO WILL BE THE DEMISE OF THEM & THE PARTY. OBAMA WILL WIN AND THEN MCCAIN WILL BEAT HIM. WHY? WHEN CLINTON LOSES HER SUPPORTERS WILL DEFECT, BUT NOT TO BARACK- AGAIN, HER PARTY WILL FAIL BECAUSE OF HER AND BILL.



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Posted by jack3213 at 10:14 AM : Apr 27, 2008
+ report abuse

Now Sparky YOU wouldn''t be one of those NAZI''s who is trying to CREATE desention within the OLDEST Party on the PLANET would you? In case you folks haven''t heard the Neo Nazi''s, some call Neocons or Ditto Heads or what ever, have a goal to create Riots and Bloodshed, in typical brownshirt fashion, at the Democrat Convention. Yep.. The Good Folks of Denver, who are happy in these very bad economic times, have been wished upon as a place for riots and bloodshed by these????? Well you call them whatever you want, what you can''t call them is AMERICA that''s for sure!! Sieg Heil Bush

[mcvet]

psy_uwar-wow, what a way to bring us together. Good job.Say, would the entire congress be tried????? Oh yea, Bush lied, so howcome your dem congress is still funding the war???????


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by Xlib at 12:20 PM : Apr 27, 2008
+ report abuse

He didn''t just LIE Sparky... he LIED us into a war we did NOT have to fight. That''s costing you and me 12 BILLION Dollars a MONTH when we are DEEPLY in debt, to the tune of 9.3 TRILLION Dollars, a record. Now that RECORD Debt that DOUBLED under the Republican''s and MR. McSame, it''s cost us 450 MILLION last year alone in Interest. That''s enough to fund the ENTIRE Education Department. As if that wasn''t enough we had a RECORD deficit this year which fed that RECORD Debt at the rate fo ONE MILLION Dollars a DAY. Of course THAT was before we had to borrow MORE of our kids future in an effort to keep the economy from sliding into a DEEP Recession. I could go on for awhile but how would YOU fascist define FAILURE!! Does it get much worse when you want to talk FAILURE?? Sieg Heil Bush

[xlib]

psy_uwar-wow, what a way to bring us together. Good job.Say, would the entire congress be tried????? Oh yea, Bush lied, so howcome your dem congress is still funding the war???????

[xlib]

realpatriot-and who will unite the country, obama?? How, by making all Americans sit in pews and listen to hate speeches. The empty suit had the perfect opportunity, early on, to unite us by pointing out the fact that he is the product of a black man and a white woman, that he was raised by white women who made him the man he is today. He did not do that! He totally ignored his white half to pander to the black community. He is a phony and a socialist. I don''t want either quality in my president. I don''t care what color he is. Bring on Colin Powell and you have a quality candidate. But no, Powell isn''t "black enough".

[realpatriot1]

Both Democrats can beat McCain in the fall.

Only one can unite the country and govern to get things done to benefit ALL Americans.

[jack3213]

IT IS A SMART MOVE THAT OBAMA WILL NOT DEBATE- AND SPEND MORE TIME CAMPAINGING-- TO BEAT CLINTON- CLINTON IS AGAIN SO HIGH ON HERSELF- FOR IF SHE DIDN''''T WIN PENN ( NOT BY MUCH, MIND YOU) SHE WOULD NOT BE ASKING FOR A DEBATE- HER EGO AND BILL''''S EGO WILL BE THE DEMISE OF THEM & THE PARTY. OBAMA WILL WIN AND THEN MCCAIN WILL BEAT HIM. WHY? WHEN CLINTON LOSES HER SUPPORTERS WILL DEFECT, BUT NOT TO BARACK- AGAIN, HER PARTY WILL FAIL BECAUSE OF HER AND BILL.

[realpatriot1]

truthyness,

Those of us who vote in North Carolina will have the great honor of putting the final nails in the coffin...of the Hildebeast!

[sgtrds]

The American voters have one of the most stark choices they''ve ever faced in modern times. More of the same wars for profits, shattered economy, lake of national security and lowering of our moral status in the world, or to vote Democratic. Seems an easy decision to make to me. Of course then again I''m not an ignorant republican hillbilly redneck, bible thumper or war monger.

[black_shhit]

Obamas "GLOBAL POVERTY PLAN" will make us subject to the laws of the UN. Think people before its to late to sniff my name posted.
Do you want to be subject to the UN? That means once its passed the UN forces can drop from the skies in any town in America and no one can stop them then!

Remember to thank your friend Obama for making this a possible reality!

[excoachken]

Let''s face it, REALITY favors the Democrats this year. You''d have to be part of the Republican Corruption Machine or have been in a 4 year coma to vote for (George W.) McCain.