Age Gap May Start Younger Than Thought

Education Levels Help Lower The Age Where Divisions Occur In Democratic Race, Says CBS Polling Director Kathy Frankovic

(CBS)  This column was written by CBS News director of surveys Kathy Frankovic.

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Age and education do affect the vote. Many of Barack Obama’s wins have been fueled by big turnouts from younger voters, who have come out strongly for him. In many states, they also increased their share of the total votes cast.

For example, young voters made up 22 percent of the total vote in Iowa, up from 17 percent in 2004. They were 18 percent of the total in Georgia, up from 11 percent four years ago. Even in Ohio, a primary Obama lost to Hillary Clinton by ten points, the share of the vote cast by those under 30 rose from 9 percent to 16 percent.

Those are astonishing rises - especially since turnout in the primaries overall has also risen dramatically.

But Pennsylvania seemed to be an exception: the 12 percent of the vote cast by voters under the age of 30 was the same as their share of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary vote back in 1992, which is the last time the state had a meaningful Democratic primary. Obama’s support among young Pennsylvania voters (60 percent) was a bit on the low side - it had been as high as 77 percent in Georgia and 76 percent in Virginia. And among white Pennsylvania voters under the age of 30, he did not even win a majority in Pennsylvania - according to the CBS News Exit Poll, 52 percent went for Clinton; 48 percent for Obama.

It’s worth examining young voters by race and by education. In Ohio, Obama won 61 percent of the under-30 vote, but his margin over Clinton came almost entirely from young African-American voters. White Ohio voters 18-29 years old divided evenly, with 48 percent for each candidate.

Black voters accounted for a large share of the youth vote in other states, too. Half of the under-30 voters in Georgia were African-American, equal to the black share of the total vote there. In Ohio, they made up more than a third of the youth vote, much larger than their share of the total vote there. In Pennsylvania, the black share of the youth vote amounted to a little less than a third. But that was twice as high as the black percentage of the statewide vote, and much higher than the black share of the vote cast by those 60 and older n Pennsylvania: only about one in ten voters over the age of 60 there was black.

We know something about the role of education for young voters, too. CBS News worked with UWire - the news service for college journalists - to poll a representative sample of more than 2,000 Pennsylvania college students before that primary. Those who said they were registered Democratic voters in the state were overwhelmingly pro-Obama - 71 percent to 29 percent - and for that group, race mattered little. Whites favored Obama over Clinton 69 percent to 31 percent. Pro-Obama students were more enthusiastic than students supporting Clinton: six in ten liked him “a lot” better than Clinton; only 42 percent of Clinton’s student supporters said they liked her “a lot” better than Obama.

But student opinion can be very different from the opinions of people who have left college - or perhaps have never gone. There are differences even within age groups depending on education.

In the last few days, reporters have asked Obama and his campaign managers if they thought the campaign might have problems attracting older voters. David Axelrod, Obama’s senior political adviser, said: “I think there is a general inclination on the part of the older voters to vote for what is more familiar.”

Obama himself told the press on Wednesday: “Our problem has less to do with white working-class voters. In fact the problem is that - to the extent that there is a problem - is that older voters are very loyal to Senator Clinton. And I think part of that is they've got a track record of voting for not just Sen. Clinton but also her husband."

Education is strongly related to social class. Looking at all the primary exit polls (combining exit polls, weighted to total votes, and excluding Florida and Michigan), it appears the “problem” the Obama campaign faces might involve both class and age. Among white voters with a college degree, Obama and Clinton have run almost even so far this year - 49 percent for Obama, 47 percent for Clinton. The results are very different by age within this group - those under 45 have given Obama a lead, and those over 45 have chosen Clinton. This does seem to support Obama’s claim that older, better-educated Democratic voters are staying with what they know, keeping on “track.”

White voters without a college degree, however, vote differently. This year, they have voted for Clinton over Obama by almost two-to-one - 61 percent to 33 percent. And the age of the voter matters less. Clinton leads decisively with just about all age groups of these voters - as long as they are over 30. She even edged Obama, 48 percent to 47 percent, among non-degreed voters under 30, but over 24 years old. Only the white non-college graduates younger than 25 have favored Obama so far this primary season. They voted for him 59 percent to 38 percent. This is the group that would include most of those pro-Obama undergraduate students.

We don’t know exactly how large that group has been in the primaries this year - there is no exit poll question that measures students -- but the data suggest that any “problem” Obama has with older, working class white voters could start with voters a lot younger than we thought.

[p-syrus]

Racism is alive and well in America.

Posted by unlocking


That is very true. It has simply being less overt in expression.

All of which contributes to why Obama should NOT be the democratic candidate for president as that will undoubtedly assure a victory for MCCAIN.

Obama should try in eight years after having developed some genuine governing experience in Hillary''s administration. In eight years the aging of today''s youth will make his candidacy much more likely to succeed.

[unlocking-2009]

Considering that the ENTIRE Pennsylvania governmental machine was behind Clinton and Governor Rendall made the statement that Obama would not win the state because whites in the state would not vote for him the outcome did not surprise me. I was just surprised he didn''t lose by a bigger margin. Racism is alive and well in America.

[jon2012-2009]

I don''t make much of the fact that young educated people find Obama the more attractive candidate. I am encouraged that they are getting involved in this most vital exercise of democracy. But they''re instincts aren''t quite there yet.

Obama might turn out to be one of the best American presidents ever, should he become the nominee and win in November. However, he is pretty much an unknown quantity by measures that a president could be evaluated and in the same vein there is nothing about him to reject him out of hand. His campaign based on hope and being a new face in Washington is built on an ability to give a good speech.

For speeches, Bush is good enough. Didn''t he beat those dull Democrats, Kerry and Gore? What Obama lacks at this point is hard evidence that he has what it will take to solve the problems we face. Hillary has some of that. It''s a slim advantage but a real one, not hypothetical, not based on a promise.

[jon2012-2009]

Want Join? That is fine.But there is NO place in White House for DIRTY Clintions at all.
Posted by lordmi at 03:19 PM : Apr 26, 2008

All these politicians speak with a view to spinning information in their favor. I don''t think the Clintons are any more especially guilty than the others. I can honestly say that Bush and the Republicans practice deception with a Machiavellian calculation. You talk about DIRT, don''t ignore the big nose in your face.

[downsteamjim]

Last week I asked a young man why he was supporting Obama. His reply was that Obama was cool. I then asked him if he felt that was a good reason to elect a man President of the U.S. He thought for a second and then a troubled look came on his face.

[jack3213]

IT IS A SMART MOVE THAT OBAMA WILL NOT DEBATE- AND SPEND MORE TIME CAMPAINGING-- TO BEAT CLINTON- CLINTON IS AGAIN SO HIGH ON HERSELF- FOR IF SHE DIDN''T WIN PENN ( NOT BY MUCH, MIND YOU) SHE WOULD NOT BE ASKING FOR A DEBATE- HER EGO AND BILL''S EGO WILL BE THE DEMISE OF THEM & THE PARTY. OBAMA WILL WIN AND THEN MCCAIN WILL BEAT HIM. WHY? WHEN CLINTON LOSES HER SUPPORTERS WILL DEFECT, BUT NOT TO BARACK- AGAIN, HER PARTY WILL FAIL BECAUSE OF HER AND BILL. ps. The youth do not vote in the Fall. History proves that.

[libra127]

lordmi -

You are sadly mis-informed about the Clintons. Hillary has worked all her life to try to help other people, especially children. She has a long record of accomplishment and is committed to working for change for the benefit of all Americans. She is an incredibly hard worker and is determined to put her intelligence and considerable capabilities in the service of the country.

Her ideas and plans for her Presidency are detailed in the issues section of her website (www.hillaryclinton.com). I hope you will take a look with an open mind.

It appears that you have read much about her that is not true. There is alot of that to be found on the internet and in certain books written by her political opponents.

[lordmi]

to libra127: do not fool yourself - she can NEVER win from high-educated, because she is simply can NOT get any NORMAL votes, from people who can think: she is phony, talk her phony false things under the sniper fire and there are only NON-educated House Hens , who can trust it, cause their mind does not go out of cookies.
Clintons ate the dirtiest family ever been close to White House. They have jus ONE and ONLY goal - to get the power FOR Clintons.
They do not care about anything else, anybody else.
Never forget , it was SHE, who said " Screw them". Them - were all working people in Southern states.
She does not care and as for now she Screws them all.
Want Join? That is fine. But there is NO place in White House for DIRTY Clintons at all.
Forget it.

[lordmi]

to libra127: do not fool yourself- she can NEVER win feromhigh-educated because she is simply can NOT get any NPRMALvotes, from people who can thinh: she is phony, talk her phony false things under the sniper fire and there are only NON-educated House Hens , who can trust it, cause their mind does not go out of cookies.
Clintons ate the dirtiest family ever been close to White House. They have jus ONE and ONLT goal - to get the power FOR Clintons.
They do not care about anything else, anybody else.
Never forget , it was SHE, who said " Screw them". Them - were all working people in southen states.
She does not care and as for now she Screws them all.
Want Join? That is fine.But there is NO place in White House for DIRTY Clintions at all.

But the chief indicator of social class in America is the Bachelor''''s Degree; those who have achieved it, or have spent at least a couple of years of college time working at it, have a far broader and more enlightened view of social problems than people who haven''''t.
Posted by razzl at 03:33 PM : Apr 25, 2008

Oh really? I guess the "salt of the earth" people couldn''t possibly have any "enlightenment". So, lets see....lawyers who extort money from people in crisis, doctors who give sub-par care by pushing as many people through their office as fast as they can, politicians who take money from special interest and sell us out, investment bankers and brokers who steal our money, CEOs who raid corporation for big bonuses...etc, etc. I would assume these are the "socially enlightened" educated people you are referring to?

[undermyboot]

The only real liar here is the R_Texan who lives in his hate filled dream world. What a moron. ROFLMAO His kind will be dead and gone in 20 years. Good riddance.

[undermyboot]

"The only voters Obama has is the african-americans and black college kids." Really? This Clinton shill is saying that 45.4% of PA voters are "African American and black college kids"? ROFLMAO What a self=deluded moron.

[libra127]

The article fails to make clear that Hillary won the majority of the most highly educated voters in Pennsylvania. Exit polls showed (see CBS Election Center) that Hillary beat Obama 53% to 47% among voters with POST-GRADUATE education.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by razzl at 03:33 PM : Apr 25, 2008

What an elitist bunch of bull *****! People in rural areas mostly commute to work in the cities. They all have cars, they''re not isolated insularists!

This is just apologist bull *****, from the Obama campaign! Maybe if he hadn''t LIED so *** much, he''d get some votes! Did you ever think of that?

[pearose]

Razzi -
I totally agree with you. The more one understands about how our institutions serve the people and the more one understands the inequities and social problems in our country and across the globe, the more likely one is to walk away from the Republican party.

For the record, I am a white female, highly educated and a staunch Independent. While I respect John McCain in some ways, my vote will go to Barack Obama.

I certainly understand that blacks see the world much differently than whites and for good reasons. I once heard a 6''-2" blonde haired, blue-eyed Senator''s son remark that he didn''t think discrimination was real. In his world, I''m sure it didn''t exist! For those of us who aren''t tall, blonde-haired, blue-eyed Senator''s sons, we are very aware that it exists.

I teach on the college level and the political institution is a topic that my classes discuss. Four years ago, most of my students followed the Republican party and supported Bush. Now? They are deciding between the Democrats.

[bdevine8]

The so-called young and higher intellect scenario of voters for Obama seems rather naive to me. I live in the Chicago area and am well aware of the neighborhood of his original constituents - the ones who voted him into the State Legislature and later Congress. Everyone knows that if you are White you don''t go to these neighborhoods, I myself have gotten snarled at by a skinny Black man with a little bow tie on his prim suit (who was passing out Louis Farakhan literature and refused to give me one). Many of these people, Obama''s original constituents, are much worse racists than the reverend that has gotten so much press. Wright is the tip of a very ugly iceberg !! At the very least, the young hopeful people at the universities - who are looking for a leader who offers them hope for a better America - need to know that there are people from those neighborhoods who are serious about money and power. People who worked for Barak Obama and got him into office and who will expect their place at his table if he becomes the president. Most of America has not seen or imagined the Black culture or the scale of it that has developed there. Take a ride down Stoney Island Avenue and hang out there for awhile before you cast your vote.

[philly1550]

Obama has a problem with lots of voters.

Obama lost the union voters

Obama lost the Catholic voters

Obama lost the blue collar voters

Obama lost the college educated whites voters

Obama lost the non college whites voters

Obama lost the woman voters

Obama lost the seniors voters.

The only voters Obama has is the african-americans and black college kids.

That is a very limited appeal.

[Razzl]

Everybody''s trying to keep the beast in check by not mentioning it''s name, so nobody is willing to say out loud the real reason why Obama has an "elderly" problem--racism. The oldest voters are the most likely to factor race into their thinking. These are the generations that watched or imposed segregation and lynchings on the black population; these are the people who spent more of their lives under legal segregation than after it.

"There are differences even within age groups depending on education".

Economists, who are eminently unqualified to make this judgement, have erroneously defined social class by certain measures of income. But the chief indicator of social class in America is the Bachelor''s Degree; those who have achieved it, or have spent at least a couple of years of college time working at it, have a far broader and more enlightened view of social problems than people who haven''t. They are the people least affected by the superstitions of racism and religion, and most likely to understand scientific facts and the application of scientific method. Conservatives have been unenthusiastic about pushing for universal access and funding for higher education because higher education is the antidote to their backward world view; as the public becomes more educated the political base of the conservatives, people mired in various levels of superstition and ignorance, evaporates...