Candidates On Equal Footing In Indiana

Politico: Close Race Expected As Hoosier State's Demographics Benefit Both Obama And Clinton

(The Politico)  This story was written by Jonathan Martin.

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With a demographic landscape that’s well-suited to both Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, Indiana is shaping up to be the most consequential battleground of the remaining states.

In a signal of the state’s importance - and of his desire to end the evening in a place more favorably inclined to him - Obama appeared with Hoosier-born rocker John Mellencamp on Tuesday night in Evansville, Ind., as the Pennsylvania vote was being counted. 

He campaigned in New Albany, just across the Ohio River from Louisville, Kentucky, on Wednesday. Clinton held a rally in Indianapolis Wednesday and was scheduled to spend Friday and Saturday campaigning throughout the state. 

Obama and Clinton have traded the lead in Indiana polls, but there have been few reliable local surveys to date. One thing seems certain: Unlike Pennsylvania, where Clinton began with a pronounced advantage, Indiana is a state where both begin on an equal footing.

For Obama, the raw math suggests a slight advantage. Upwards of 25 percent of the primary vote will come out of just two counties: Marion and Lake. The first is home to Indianapolis, the capital and state’s largest city, and the second is home to industrial Gary, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market.

Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, predict Indiana political observers, thanks in part to large African-American populations.

According to Robin Winston, a former Indiana Democratic chairman who hasn’t endorsed in the race, 253 precincts in the state have delivered more than 90 percent of the vote to Democrats in recent elections - 241 of them are in the Indianapolis-based 7th District and the Gary-based 1st.

Both places have quirks that are likely to benefit Obama.

In Lake County, Obama was a household name well before the presidential race.

“The northwest part of our state considers itself part of Chicago,” says Matthew Tully, political columnist for the Indianapolis Star and a Gary native. “They get Chicago TV and read Chicago papers and have been watching Obama grow up as a politician for years now.”

In Marion County, Obama’s already well-oiled grass-roots operation will get a boost. Rep. Andre Carson, who just succeeded his late grandmother in a special election, will face off against three credible Democratic challengers, spiking turnout numbers in the hotly contested Democratic primary.

“If he wins huge in the cities, it makes it harder to overcome in other places,” notes Tully.

In other words, Clinton could win the vast majority of counties in the state and still lose. “We have 92 counties, and if he wins the right five, he’s OK,” said one Indiana Democratic insider.

That’s because, contrary to some stereotypes of the state, Indiana’s population is largely packed into small and medium cities - not spread out in rural areas. It’s more than 70 percent urban, and 30 of the state’s counties produce 81 percent of the vote.

Of course, neighboring Ohio had a similar landscape. It had even more blacks and more big cities than Indiana, yet Obama took a 10-point loss.

One key player there was Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who threw his support to Clinton. In Indiana, Clinton has the support of Indiana’s most important Democrat, Sen. Evan Bayh, who casts an even larger shadow than Strickland.

“The state right now would lean toward Hillary Clinton because of Evan Bayh’s influence,” said Winston, the former state chair. “He’s gone all out.”

The son of a former senator and previously the youngest governor in the state’s history, Bayh represents a golden name in Indiana politics and is the only Democrt in statewide office.

“He’s provided an instant organization,” says Dan Parker, the Indiana Democratic chairman and Clinton backer.

Along with Bayh, Clinton has lined up much of the Democratic Party establishment: former Gov. Joe Kernan, the widow of former Gov. Frank O’Bannon, the Speaker of the House, the Democratic Senate leader, many of the mayors of the biggest cities and over half of the state central committee.

And, as they did leading up to Ohio, both Hillary and Bill Clinton have put considerable time into the state, including appearances in smaller locales that rarely get presidential-level attention.

“We’ve almost had Bill and Hillary offering to bag your groceries and take them to the car they’ve been here so often,” said Winston. “I’m surprised at some of the communities they’ve been to.”

Parker said that even before the Pennsylvania primary, the Clintons had between them made 43 campaign stops across 30 Indiana cities and towns.

Indiana pols expect her to run strong across a swath of central and southern Indiana, in the counties well beyond Indianapolis and Bloomington (home to tens of thousands of Indiana University students and professors) that are culturally similar to neighboring Ohio and Kentucky.

The battleground could well be in two places: the fast-growing, mostly white exurbs around Indianapolis and the northern part of the state outside the Chicago orbit where there are pockets of white ethnics, blacks, college students and rural voters.

With 160,000 new voters registering since January and turnout expected to shatter primary records, Indiana is about to take on its highest profile since propelling Robert F. Kennedy to victory on the same first Tuesday in May 1968.

“It’s going to be a very tight race,” predicted Kip Tew, an Obama supporter and longtime Democratic strategist, echoing what every Hoosier, regardless of affiliation, said.

And, Tew added, “we’ve never had a primary in my adult life that matters."

[nanging3]

Obama is arrogant and makes very poor decisions, especially in his choice of friends and associates...

[nanging3]

McCain//Powell 2008

[nanging3]

While visiting that mercurial miscreant Libyan strongman Col. Muammar Qaddafi,
Farrakhan struck a deal which secured millions of dollars from Libya to lobby
for the secession of part of the United States. The goal is the formation of a
separate black nation on the North American Continent replete with a 500,000 man
army and nuclear weapons.

"Minister" Farrakhan endorsed the policies of the Sudan which enslaves black
Christian men, women and children. The average price of a Christian woman with
child is $15.00. For Farrakhan and the people of the Sudan there is no such
thing as an "emancipation proclamation."

In remarks to the Iranian parliament Farrakhan called for the destruction of
that "great satan" meaning the United States.

In Iraq, Farrakhan accused the United States of genocide and "war crimes" and
again prayed for our total destruction.

TRIP REV.WRIGHT TOOK WITH FARRAHKAN...JUST SOUND BITES ??

[truth-hurts]

CLINTON/BAYH 2008!!!

[truth-hurts]

Obama''s refusal to debate is political suicide.

Obama - Not Electible

[texaslj]

"Why won''''t Barack Obama Debate Hillary in Indiana?..."

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Posted by enlightened- at 10:46 PM : Apr 24, 2008


From what I have observed Senator Obama falls flat in debates and interviews. I can only surmise from his reluctance to participate that he realizes his weakness and wishes to avoid damaging his campaign further. If he does not engage, he will not be held accountable, much like voting "present".

[libra127]

We are at war, so I hope America doesn''t take a chance on her to manage the two wars in a competent manner.

Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 03:21 PM : Apr 24, 2008

BLKPREZ, the following military flag officers have already endorsed Hillary to manage those two wars:

General Wesley Clark
General John M. Shalikashvili
General Johnnie E. Wilson
Admiral William Owens
Lt. Gen. Joe Ballard
Lt. Gen. Robert Gard
Lt. Gen. Claudia J. Kennedy
Lt. Gen. Donald L. Kerrick
Lt. Gen. Frederick E. Vollrath
Vice Admiral Joseph A. Sestak
Major General Roger R. Blunt
Major General George A. Buskirk, Jr.
Major General Edward L. Correa, Jr.
Major General Paul D. Eaton
Major General Paul D. Monroe, Jr.
Major General Antonio M. Taguba
Rear Admiral Connie Mariano
Rear Admiral Alan M. Steinman
Rear Admiral David Stone
Brigadier General Michael Dunn
Brigadier General Belisario Flores
Brigadier General Evelyn "Pat" Foote
Brigadier General Keith H. Kerr
Brigadier General Virgil A. Richard
Brigadier General Preston Taylor
Brigadier General John M. Watkins, Jr.
Brigadier General Jack Yeager

[blkpresident]

Hillary-Steinem ''08?

Wonder who these broads would tap as Secretary of Defense, Jane Fonda? America can do better than lil'' missy and her weenies.

[ksh1022]

Obama is afraid to debate Hillary again. Obama doesn''t want Florida vote to be counted. Obama does not want Michigan to revote. Obama never heard any racist or anti-American sermons from his minister. Obama is weak, inexperienced and a liar. Obama is not presidental material.

[pepperwood2]

For the first time in a long time the People of this Great Country of ours have been given a real opportunity to change the way polictics is carried on in Washington.

From the out of touch Clintons Lobbyist & Special Interests geared to their Elitest life style, to Obama who has come up through the school of hard knocks. He has had to accomplish the American Dream by doing it the old fashion way. He''s worked for it!

Bill & Hillary have intensified their efforts to discredit Senator Obama in any way that they can. Most of us have been working hard trying to achieve the American Dream. The Clintons have devised a system of their own we all know as THE AMERICAN SCHEME, and wrote the book on it.

Representative Clyburn is not exaggerating his claims. It is deeply troubling that the Clintons have been given a free pass and when somebody brings it to our attention what is going on we become defensive & play the reverse card blame game made famous by the Clintons.

It is time to stop the Clinton polictics of personal destruction and get Barack to doing the work of the American People. This Country & It People deserve better than the way business is done on State Street. The Clintons have done quite well for themselves at the Peoples expense. It''s little wonder that they get paranoid, defensive & hostile when Mr. Obama came to Washington. Together it is up to us to do it.

[craigh9]

Why won''''''''t Barack Obama Debate Hillary in Indiana? What is he hiding? If you want to see a Hillary vs. Obama debate before the Indiana primary, go to Hillary''''''''s website and sign a petition that urges Mr. Obama to accept a debate (as Hillary has already done).

Will it be a reenactment of the ABC 3 on 1 or is Hillary in cahoots with even more than that?

[craigh9]

Obama has NEVER HAD the popular vote! His campaign and the media have lied! And they''''re still lying!

Votes are votes! And they prove Obama can''''t win spit!

It''''s time for Obama to step aside and let the real democrats win this election!

Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 07:04 PM : Apr 24, 2008

Grind that organ and keep that monkey dancing - only 12 more days until you become a McCain supporter

[jockh]

Hillary lies again, the Federal Election Commission has just reported that her campaign debt is $15 million and not $10 million as the Clinton camp reported because she failed to list her $5 million loan among the debts.

This means that even after her new surge of fundraising, she is still $5 million in debt; but Hillary is still smiling; why? Because she knows that her $110 million fortune is nice and safe. It%u2019s the ordinary person on the street who is tricked into losing money on a campaign that is doomed to fail.

Mitt Romney put $42 million of his own money into his campaign, why doesn%u2019t Hillary show she has complete confidence in her campaign and put in some of her own millions. Why? Because she knows it%u2019s a lost cause.

Those of you who are fooled into contributing to her campaign ask yourself why she LOANS her own money but wants you to GIVE your money?

[jockh]

To go from a spoiled rich nutbag Republican who invaded Iraq to a spoiled rich nutbag Democrat who says she''ll bomb Iran, is hardly an improvement.
We have a chance to vote for a man with a touch of nobility, a gift to unite, and a tolerance to talk with enemies. Let''s not blow it.

[spinster2]

Why won''''t Barack Obama Debate Hillary in Indiana? What is he hiding? If you want to see a Hillary vs. Obama debate before the Indiana primary, go to Hillary''''s website and sign a petition that urges Mr. Obama to accept a debate (as Hillary has already done).


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Posted by enlightened

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Obama has a little stage fright from the last debate where he looked like a junior senator. As soon as CBS posted their post debate story I noticed that after about a hundred comments and one after another commenting on how well Clinton did in the debates,,,,there was not one post by anybody who thought Obama won that debate. The next day, NBC and MSNBC was spinning his victory. What a bunch of bull.

[enlightened-]

Why won''t Barack Obama Debate Hillary in Indiana? What is he hiding? If you want to see a Hillary vs. Obama debate before the Indiana primary, go to Hillary''s website and sign a petition that urges Mr. Obama to accept a debate (as Hillary has already done).

[enlightened-]

I thought Obama was "above" negative tactics & typical political tricks? Obviously that is only when the negativity is aimed at him. He has sent out numerous NEGATIVE, ATTACK ads aimed at Hillary Clinton in Indiana. This type of politics disgusts me...SHAME ON YOU BARACK OBAMA! Quit saying you aren''t negative to the media, and then sliding these mailers to voters....very disappointing.

[likeitis5050]

We know all the nasty little secrets of Hillary. She''s been busted. Now let all the truth come out about Obama without the manipulation of the media to place guilt on whites who are on to him or blacks who want to use the race card when whites steer clear knowing he''s been mentored by a racist reverand. Let it out. Stop trying to guilt people for not trusting him. Start asking supporters why they don''t care that he''s dancing around the truth and skirting the issues of his undercover politics cloaked in ''change''. And then blame Rev. Wright for making this campaign about race...

[blkpresident]

future-watch,

In response to your question about whether woman in charge frighten me, HELL, YES, if she wants to become president like lil'' Hillary and manage not one but two wars, not to mention spearhead improving our sagging economy as well. Face it, lil'' missy has high-hopes but no real leadership mettle. Terrorist don''t play softball. America can do better than a foreign policy shaped out of a cake mixing bowl in the White House kitchen.

[rowdytexan2]

Obama has NEVER HAD the popular vote! His campaign and the media have lied! And they''re still lying!

Votes are votes! And they prove Obama can''t win spit!

It''s time for Obama to step aside and let the real democrats win this election!