Clinton, Obama Both Claim Lead In Votes

Obama Leads In Total Votes In Contested Primaries But Clinton Is Ahead When Mich. And Fla. Are Included

(CBS/AP)  If numbers don't lie, the Democratic presidential race is proving they can confuse: Both campaigns claim they are ahead in the popular vote.

The day after her big win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that she now has more votes than anybody who has ever run for president in a Democratic primary.

Not so fast, Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, told reporters in a conference call. Obama has a comfortable lead in the popular vote and doesn't expect to lose it by the time voting ends June 3, Plouffe said.

So who is right?

It depends on how the votes are counted. And even using Clinton's method, she may not stay ahead for long.

Clinton is including Michigan and Florida, primaries she won after all the candidates agreed to boycott the states for holding votes too early for party rules. Obama had his name pulled off the ballot in Michigan, so he doesn't get a single vote from that state.

"I'm very proud that as of today, I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else, and I am proud of that," Clinton said at a rally in Indianapolis. "It's a very close race, but if you count, as I count, the 2.3 million people who voted in Michigan and Florida, then we are going to build on that."

Including Michigan and Florida, Clinton has 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million - a lead of about one-half of a percentage point for Clinton. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama has 14.4 million to Clinton's 13.9 million - a lead of about 1.7 percent for Obama. Neither total includes the primary vote total from Washington state, since it doesn't count toward the nomination and the party awards delegates based on its caucus.

Michigan and Florida's votes don't count toward the delegate total that will determine who will win the nomination at the Democratic National Convention in August. Obama said delegates are the most important factor in determining the winner.

"I guess there have been a number of different formulations that the Clinton campaign has been trying to arrive at to suggest that somehow they're not behind," he told reporters traveling with him Wednesday. "I'll leave that up to you guys. If you want to count them for some abstract measure, you're free to do so."

The popular vote argument is another way Clinton is trying to persuade superdelegates to support her campaign, with Obama virtually assured to end the campaign with a lead in pledged delegates. Pledged delegates are assigned based on the outcome of votes in each state, while superdelegates are elected leaders and party officials who can pick any candidate.

After Clinton's big win in Pennsylvania, her campaign needed to cash in, and aides say they're doing just that, raising as much as $10 million by the end of the day, reports CBS News chief White House correspondent Jim Axelrod. At Clinton's national headquarters outside Washington, staffers report a huge influx of online contributions, claiming 50,000 new donors.

There are a couple other problems for Clinton in claiming the lead in the popular vote. Even using her criteria of counting Michigan and Florida, her lead may not last more than two weeks. That's because Obama is heavily favored to win the largest state left to vote, North Carolina, on May 6.

Obama won 90 percent of the black vote in Pennsylvania, but only 15 percent of voters there were African-American. But more than a third of North Carolina Democrats are black, reports CBS News chief political correspondent Jeff Greenfield. That means Obama would likely start out with about 30 percent of the vote there.

Obama also is likely to win South Dakota and Oregon. Even if Clinton won all the other contests left - Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Montana, Puerto Rico and Guam - they are smaller contests that will make it difficult for her to catch back up.

The other problem with counting the popular vote is that states that held caucuses aren't included at all - Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine. Those four states don't have a popular vote total to include - instead they count the number of delegates elected for each candidate to determine who wins. And those states are relatively small, Obama won every one except Nevada.

Nor does the total reflect the outcome of the Texas caucus, which Obama won. The caucus counts the delegates elected instead of voter turnout. But Texas also conducts a primary, which Clinton won, and the popular vote count does include those votes.

No matter how the numbers are sliced, the bottom line is that Democrats across the country are closely divided over who should be the nominee. It'll be up to each campaign to convince the superdelegates who is more deserving of the prize.

[tbweb]

Everyone is starting to notice Clinton tactics!

WASHINGTON - %u201CScurrilous%u201D and %u201Cdisingenuous%u201D were among the words a top Democrat in the U.S. House of Representatives used on Thursday to describe Hillary Clinton%u2019s campaign tactics in her bid to defeat Barack Obama for their party%u2019s presidential nomination.

House Democratic Whip James Clyburn, of South Carolina and the highest ranking black in Congress, also said he has heard speculation that Clinton is staying in the race only to try to derail Obama and pave the way for her to make another White House run in 2012.

I heard something, the first time yesterday (in South Carolina), and I heard it on the (House) floor today, which is telling me there are African Americans who have reached the decision that the Clintons know that she can%u2019t win this. But they%u2019re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win%u201D in November, Clyburn told Reuters in an interview.

Obama holds a sizable lead in delegates won in state-nominating contests which could be hard for her to overcome.

The purported theory is that an Obama defeat in November against Republican presidential candidate John McCain would let Clinton make another presidential bid in four years, Clyburn said.

[libra127]

We are at war, so I hope America doesn''t take a chance on her to manage the two wars in a competent manner.

Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 03:21 PM : Apr 24, 2008

BLKPREZ, the following military flag officers have already endorsed Hillary to manage those two wars:

General Wesley Clark
General John M. Shalikashvili
General Johnnie E. Wilson
Admiral William Owens
Lt. Gen. Joe Ballard
Lt. Gen. Robert Gard
Lt. Gen. Claudia J. Kennedy
Lt. Gen. Donald L. Kerrick
Lt. Gen. Frederick E. Vollrath
Vice Admiral Joseph A. Sestak
Major General Roger R. Blunt
Major General George A. Buskirk, Jr.
Major General Edward L. Correa, Jr.
Major General Paul D. Eaton
Major General Paul D. Monroe, Jr.
Major General Antonio M. Taguba
Rear Admiral Connie Mariano
Rear Admiral Alan M. Steinman
Rear Admiral David Stone
Brigadier General Michael Dunn
Brigadier General Belisario Flores
Brigadier General Evelyn "Pat" Foote
Brigadier General Keith H. Kerr
Brigadier General Virgil A. Richard
Brigadier General Preston Taylor
Brigadier General John M. Watkins, Jr.
Brigadier General Jack Yeager

[gaye5]

I would like to know if anyone has heard this before..

About Obama, this is from a person living and working in Kenya for almost twelve years and who say that they know his family (tribe) well. They said that Obamas family are the ones who were behind the recent Presidential election chaos here. Thousands of people have been displaced by election violence(over 350,000) and I don''t know the last count of the dead. Obama under "friends of Obama" gave almost a million dollars to the opposition campaign who just happened to be his cousin, Raila Odinga, who is a socialist trained in East Germany. Raila has been trying to bring Kenya down for years and the last president threw him in prison for trying to subvert this country! December 27th elections brought cries from ODM (Odinga Camp) of rigged election. Obama and Raila speak daily. As we watch Obama rise in the US we are sure that whatever happens, he will use the same tactic, crying rigged election if he doesn''t win and possibly cause a race war in America.
Obama IS a muslim and he IS a racist and this is a fullfilllment of the 911 threat that was just the beginning. Jihad is the only true muslim way. This family says that they have been working with them for 20 years this July! He is not an American as we know it. By the way. His true name is Barak Hussein Muhammed Obama.

[blkpresident]

Once more, but hopefully everyone finally gets it this time and this nonsense with Florida and Michigan can be put to rest, F L O R I D A and M I C H I G A N have already had their chance to listen to Mr. Dean. They didn''t, so Mr. Dean showed ''em who was BOSS. They''ll get another chance to vote in November with the other 48 States. Cry me a river already, lil'' Hillary.

[cees14]

"They" are the party leaders in FL and MI. "they" are also the candidates who agreed to NOT TO COUNT THE VOTES. things were quiet. no one cared they were disenfrancised until CLINTON saw that there is NOWAY she can win otherwise. soooo...now SHE choses to count then despite the AGREEMENT MADE!!!
WHAT PART OF "DO NOT COUNT" don''t these people understnad!!!!!!!!haha...typical Clintons. looney bin. someone give her, her meds!

[philly1550]

We are at war, so I hope America doesn''''t take a chance on her to manage the two wars in a competent manner. You have to remember, libra127, terrorist don''''t lob softballs; and, terrorist don''''t play powder-puff football either.

Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 03:21 PM : Apr 24, 2008

That''s why we can''t have that sissy Obama as President.

Obama whined and cried and got all shook up and rattled by Hillary in a debate...how can Obama stand up to ruthless terrorist?

[blkpresident]

Howard Dean simply made Florida and Michigan blink; they should have known better than call his bluff, because Mr. Dean wasn''t bluffing. Florida and Michigan had their chance--they blew it.

[blkpresident]

libra127,

While I appreciate your offer to read some of lil'' Hillary''s position''s on the issues, there''s ONE key issue that she cannot resolve: We are at war, so I hope America doesn''t take a chance on her to manage the two wars in a competent manner. You have to remember, libra127, terrorist don''t lob softballs; and, terrorist don''t play powder-puff football either. Lil'' Hillary is weaker and softer than Jane Fonda. Sorry ''bout her lil'' pipedream of a woman becoming president.

[libra127]

Hillary does not want a rematch in Fla, because she knows there is a large black population who would be largely for Obama.

Posted by krenz4 at 02:58 PM : Apr 24, 2008

Eleven percent of the FL electrorate is black, somewhat less than the national average.

[philly1550]

If the voters in Florida and Michigan want to retaliate and waste their votes on an OLD man in need of multiple daily naps in the general election, then go ahead, but Mr. Dean has spoken..
Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 02:25 PM : Apr 24, 2008

Yep, if Florida and Michigan''''s votes are not counted by the Dean Democrte bosses...then McCain will win the Presidency.

Obama will have to go back to South Chicago with Rev Wright, Ayers the terrorist bomber and Rezko the criminal.

Hey, Obama''''s old gang will be back together again.

[krenz4]

Do you people remember how g bush stole the election in Florida? The hanging chads, the mis counted ballots, the absentee ballot mess? Hillary''s campaign is trying to pull out the same stuff her ''experience'' has taught her... if you can win it, steal it. Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan and both he and hillary agreed BEFOREHAND that Fl and Mi would be disqualified. Hillary does not want a rematch in Fla, because she knows there is a large black population who would be largely for Obama. Now before you cry racism, as blacks vote for blacks, What''s the diff? Whites have always voted for whites, there has never been any other way! Peaople are slamming Obama for telling the truths they dont want to hear. We are bitter, we are racist, (as this election proves), We are going into protectionist mode against immigrants. Why deny it anymore. Look at all the issues that are in play now that a black mann is running for office, Things that have NEVER come up, race, patriotism, where you grew up, how educated you are. This country is one of the most racist societies on earth, why? because we refuse to believe we are.

[philly1550]

If the voters in Florida and Michigan want to retaliate and waste their votes on an OLD man in need of multiple daily naps in the general election, then go ahead, but Mr. Dean has spoken..
Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 02:25 PM : Apr 24, 2008

Yep, if Florida and Michigan''s votes are not counted by the Dean Democrte bosses...then McCain will win the Presidency.

Obama will have to go back to South Chicago with Rev Wright, Ayers the terrorist bomber and Rezko the criminal.

Hey Obama''s old gang will be back together again.
I

[libra127]

I gotta move on now, BLKPRES. Why don''t you take a look at some of her position papers?

[blkpresident]

Duty calls, be back later.

Hillary-Steinem ''08?

Secretary of Defense, Jane Fonda?

A new cabinet-position: Secretary of Bake Sales: Geraldine Ferraro?

America can do better to than these broads. We are a nation at war--we don''t need a country run like a hen house. Sorry '' bout your lil'' pipedream Hillary.

[libra127]

how do we know if lil'' missy even fully grasps the subject matter in this committee?

Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 02:22 PM : Apr 24, 2008

Some of us have done our homework, read her position papers, listened to all the debates, done research on her in order to have an educated opinion of her capabilities. You clearly have not.

[blkpresident]

If the voters in Florida and Michigan want to retaliate and waste their votes on an OLD man in need of multiple daily naps in the general election, then go ahead, but Mr. Dean has spoken and all the marching in the world won''t matter. Michigan and Florida are out. Mr. Dean is the DNC boss--it''s the final word and enough said. Sorry ''bout lil'' hillary''s pipedream about a woman becoming president.

[blkpresident]

libra127,

Being a member of the US Senate Armed Services Commmittee is a good thing; however, how do we know if lil'' missy even fully grasps the subject matter in this committee? We don''t, so America cannot take a chance on a soccer-mom pretending to be knowledgable bout managing war. Missy''s out!

[blkpresident]

libra127,

Contrary to your comments that should lil'' hillary lose the nomination she has NY to fall back on and she''ll be just fine in the US Senate, yeah until the balance of her term runs out, and then someone who supported Obama in the primary would emerge to take her on in a Senate race and kick her lil'' *** like the Obama shuffle did.

[libra127]

we don''t need leaders holding bake sales, yard sales, Bridge Club mtgs, etc. while our nation is under attack.

Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 02:09 PM : Apr 24, 2008

You should get out more, BLKPRESIDENT. You are still stuck in the 50''s. Here in the 21st century, women are fighting and DYING in Iraq and Afganistan, and doing all manner of jobs previously reserved for men. You dishonor them by claiming that women can only hold bake sales and make cookies.

[philly1550]

March all they want, anywhere they want, but Mr. Dean has spoken so Florida needs to stand down. Same goes for Michigan too.

Posted by BLKPRESIDENT at 02:11 PM : Apr 24, 2008

Well then, 5 million votes by Florida and Michigan voters will go to McCain in Nov....and Dean will have blown the White House for the Democrats for 4 more years.