Hillary Clinton Builds Her Case

Weekly Standard: Candidate’s Biggest Gain In Pennsylvania Is A Stronger Electability Argument

(Weekly Standard)  This column was written by Fred Barnes.

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Forget delegates and the popular vote for the Democratic presidential nomination. The most important thing Hillary Clinton gained by winning the Pennsylvania primary yesterday was a better argument -- indeed, a much better argument.

Chances are, Clinton will trail Barack Obama in the delegate count when the primaries end on June 3, as she does now. And while she may cut into his lead in the popular vote in the Democratic contests, she's not likely to exceed his vote total. So the only way she can capture the nomination is by convincing roughly 300 uncommitted super-delegates that Obama cannot defeat Republican John McCain in November but she can.

This isn't an easy case to make, especially with the super-delegates who will provide the margin of victory for whoever captures the 2,025 delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination. And at the moment, they appear strongly inclined to back Obama if he leads in delegates when the primary season is finished.

But after Pennsylvania, Clinton's argument that she's a stronger opponent against McCain will be impossible to ignore or dismiss. And it's not just because Clinton was outspent by nearly 3 to 1 by Obama and got tougher coverage from the media, yet trounced him by a substantial margin in a state that the Democratic presidential nominee must win in November.

The key was how she won in Pennsylvania. She clobbered him among the voting blocs that are critical to a Democratic victory: union households, women, Catholics, working class and downscale voters, and those who didn't attend college. The Democratic nominee who doesn't win a solid majority of these voting groups is all but certain to lose in November.

In fact, she ran stronger among these voters than she had in Ohio, another state where she topped Obama. Ohio, too, is a must win state for the Democratic nominee in November.

And there was a telling number from the exit poll of voters. Nearly one-third of Clinton voters said they wouldn't vote for Obama if he's the nominee. Now, it's likely many of these voters will change their minds. But a sizeable number may remain alienated from the nominee and vote for McCain. A smaller percentage of Obama voters said they wouldn't vote for Clinton if she wins the presidential nomination.

Clinton, of course, will stress this point. She'll emphasize how important the Democratic groups she won are to the party's coalition. And she will point to her pickup of around 200,000 more popular votes than Obama in Pennsylvania -- an impressive margin.

If the votes in the Michigan and Florida primaries are included, Clinton actually is ahead of Obama in popular votes. For now anyway, the Democratic National Committee has ruled that the Michigan and Florida votes won't be counted because the states voted too early.

Her argument boils down to this: I can hold the traditionally Democratic voters critical to winning the general election and he can't, and thus I can defeat McCain and he can't. Sure, he's ahead in delegates, but he won many of them months ago, before the halo over his campaign was knocked off.

In the Democratic debate last week, she said "yes, yes, yes" when asked if she thinks Obama can defeat McCain. But, in private, she and her allies make the opposite argument: Obama can't win.

Before Pennsylvania, Clinton made the same argument, but her case was weaker. Now it's not only stronger, but it's changed the political environment. Clinton is no longer a hopeless underdog. Yes, she's still an underdog, but one with an argument and a prayer.

[paris1969]

Obama also received 92% of the black vote, and even with this large support and the $3-2 spending he couldn''t get close enough to show the strength to win the General Election. MoveOn.org helped him win the caucauses and the left-wing of the Democratic Party ... but these are not the voters that will win the General, it is the grass-roots Democrats and the Republicans who will vote for Clinton because they believe she will end the war responsibly, and keep America strong, while we rebuild our economy and help our citizens to keep their homes and have affordable healthcare. Obama may make a good President someday ... but for now, Hillary is the best choice for America.

[Razzl]

Hillary''s "electability" argument is based on the mathematically absurd assumption that all of the Republicans who crossed over in the primaries to vote for her or Obama will be theirs to keep in November, and that Obama''s vast turnout in all these states wouldn''t be enough to swamp the miniscule McCain turnout so far. There''s really no argument worth arguing with the Clintonites, they are power-grabbers who don''t play by any rules and need to be put in their place...

[jerryz7936]

Its all nice she won but, she can''t win the nomination without destroying the party. What''s the point? If McCain gets in, four to eight years of war and bad economy. If she wins, the party will lose because she stole the nomination. New voters won''t vote for her. Notice the black vote? Over 90%. Seems like the party can really screw up a two car funeral.

[irliberal]

Posted by jerryz7936 at 02:56 PM

"Its all nice she won but, she can''''t win the nomination without destroying the party."

Sure, she can. Lots of people will vote for the democratic candiate, whoever is nominated.

"What''''s the point? If McCain gets in, four to eight years of war and bad economy."


Oh it will probably be much, much worse than even that.

"If she wins, the party will lose because she stole the nomination."

No she didn''t. If she wins the nomination it''s because she won the nomination. Plain and simple.

"New voters won''''t vote for her."

Sure they will.

You''re being a bit of an alarmist. Plenty of horse race left. Try not judging too much in the middle.

[cmmunro]

The argument doesn''t stack up. Major Media does not seem to want to note: registered independents cannot vote in the Pennsylvania primary. Registered republicans crossed over to vote for, primarily, Clinton. If independents had vote, every indication is that Clinton likely would have lost.

[irliberal]

The argument doesn''''t stack up. Major Media does not seem to want to note: registered independents cannot vote in the Pennsylvania primary. Registered republicans crossed over to vote for, primarily, Clinton. If independents had vote, every indication is that Clinton likely would have lost.

Posted by cmmunro at 05:33 PM

And the cow flew over the moon?

[cmmunro]

Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton..., so... which family members will be running in the next two decades. The fact that any halfwy intelligent person would vote for a Bush or Clinton at all shows how pathetic we really are.

[frb01]

If she continues down the scorched earth policy path, both will be damaged goods going into the general election. If Obama gets the nomination, he needs to properly vet his VP choice, my feeling is Richardson is his best choice and throw out some cabinet names, like a Joe Biden in Defense or Secretary of State, Colin Powell if he is going to cross over and be part of things etc. Get the stuff out there, fill in some of the blanks and Obama will be fine.

[cyberus-2009]

The problem I still have with Hillary is her health care plan ... forcing me to buy health insurance at market rates will put us on the street ... we''re barely making bills now as it is. And saying that when everone has insurance that the price will go down sounds awfully republican for a democrat .. makes me nervous.

[tibu987]

Hopefully, the people of Indiana can see through the facade that is Hillary and Bill.

It is time for Obama to go on the offensive against the belittling insults from the Clinton twins.
The Clintons, perhaps the most conniving, lying, scandalous pols to ever reach the White House should not be allowed there again.

The Clintons background from Arkansas to Washington has been one of scandals from the beginning, one of which even caused the suicide of one of their close associates.
Then, there is the matter of a one million dollars donation to Hillary''''s campaign by indicted donor Norman Hsu. The money had to be returned.

How does it go. "people who live in glass houses should not throw stones".

Obama remains a breath of fresh air in Washington and has my vote.

[iamthequeen-]

Yeah, that Obama is a breath of fresh air. So long as you don''t look at his unpatriotic wife, racist pastor, African-centric leanings, liberal cronies like Kennedy and Kerry, throwing his grandmother under the bus and calling us typical white person.

[sparks224]

The right wing noise machines (like the Weakly substandard) are really pushing Hillary because they don''t want to run against Obama.

[G H M]

Yes Hillary one PA. But she''s liying again about the numbers. LIES LIES LIES -- Didn''t we get enough lies from Bush!! I sorry, I dont want any more lies.

[Lai K W]

The claims by Obama against Hillary''s Health Insurance plan is nothing but lies.
Elizabeth Edwards openly proclaims that Hillary''s Health plan is more feasible than that of Obama because a mandate is necessary to drive the cost of insurance down. For those who cannot afford the insurance cost, special provisions are made.

[javalation]

Maybe the democrats should draft big Al at the convention with Barak as his VP. Didn''t Clinton say that the delegates could select anyone, well if Gore would be willing, they should tap him. That would solve the problem of the negatives.

[bluestardad]

yea and you repigs would love to run against hillary instead of obama!

[grumpas]

The right wing noise machines are pushing for Hillary because they know she can''t win! She has to big of an image problem! That''s what they are hoping for another Republican in office in November. So they can continue to rape the economy and the American people.

[texanforlogi]

I am voting against ANYBODY Rush Limbaugh is advocating. Do you really think he would advocate for anybody who could beat McSame?

[bluestardad]

BEND OVER AMERICA THE REPIGS AND NEOCONS ARE GONNA TRY TO HOSE YOU AGAIN!

HERE IS THEIR PROPAGANDA RAG PROMOTING SOMEONE THEY CAN BEAT!

AMERICA STAND UP OR SHUT UP!

[charliegirlg]

Dig this: You can''t run a country on "charisma" alone. Only the experienced need apply...

[twb0392]

She also has problems with key voting groups in the Dem Party. You have to win St. Louis, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Cleveland; and big to win those battelground states. If urban voters don''t come out in big numbers Dems won''t win.

[jon2012-2009]

The Clintons, perhaps the most conniving, lying, scandalous pols to ever reach the White House should not be allowed there again.
Posted by tibu987 at 08:43 PM : Apr 23, 2008

Perhaps the most conniving, lying...? I run across this kind Republican trash masquerading as the average Joe''s opinion just about everyday. But always the charge of lying leveled at Hillary is disconnected from any semblance of substance. Are you guys working for the Republican party''s Ministry of Truth, like NRO and Faux News?

[erasmus81]

I believe that Hillary Clinton is still more than capable of becoming the next president.

[parachutepol]

To begin with when you try to dig a hole for someone, make sure you dig one for yourself. Consequently , her ties with an terrorst group in 1980 has come out to hunt her. More importantly is the fact she invited these individuals to the White House for a dinner party. WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What is up with this? They are hoping she is the next president to complete her promises to their country. America wake up to see her for what she really is. Thank you *** Morris for keeping some of us informed on all the issues of the day. Again America Ask Sen. Clinton about this.

[bluestardad]

REPIGS WANNA RUN AGAINST CLINTON!

THAT IS WHY THEIR MOUTH PIECE IS PROMOTING HER...

[tawpdawg11]

The ONLY reason that Obama will not have quite enough delegates to seal the deal BEFORE the convention is because of GOP crossover votes intentionally cast to subvert the democratic process by which American Democrats choose their presidential nominee. Sure Rush gave it an innocuos-sounding name and makes it seem cutesy-pootsey but the fact is TENS OF THOUSANDS of his followers created the chaos we have here through a means which can only be described as unpatriotic. I predict we will end up with one of the least qualified candidates as our next president because of this intentional effort to give us exactly that. Ain''''t America great? GAWWWWD BLESS AMERICA! YES! YES! YES! And thank you , Rush. You are a great American, sir. Talent on loan from GAWWWWWDDDDD-D. I''''d like to kick yer AZZ!

[tiredofthebs]

OMG .... same old noise from the OBAMA nation (pun INTENDED)! NC republicans have proved what I said all along. OBAMA cannot win !!!! After the revelations about Rev. Wright, Washington''s most gifted amateur is TOAST !!!!! Good riddance !!!!!

[mcvet]

OMG .... same old noise from the OBAMA nation (pun INTENDED)! NC republicans have proved what I said all along. OBAMA cannot win !!!! After the revelations about Rev. Wright, Washington''''s most gifted amateur is TOAST !!!!! Good riddance !!!!!


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Posted by TiredoftheBS at 02:53 AM : Apr 25, 2008
+ report abuse

Excuse me! Isn''t THIS exactly how we ended up with the WORST in US History. Can Obama Win? OF course he can, even Clinton says he can. THIS is the race! Anyone who thinks McSame can win is fooling themselves... People aren''t going to vote for someone who''s solution to the massive problems we face is to Leave them alone while fighting a war that NEVER had to be. Time for Ms. Clinton to fold her tents and move along... SHE lost this... not Obama and certainly NOT this Nazi Rag that wants her so badly. Sieg Heil Bush

[mcvet]

I believe that Hillary Clinton is still more than capable of becoming the next president.


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Posted by Erasmus81 at 06:41 PM : Apr 24, 2008
+ report abuse

Well that''s good... the NUMBERS don''t agree with you though... she can''t catch Obama.. no way no how. Sieg Heil Bush

[mcvet]

Dig this: You can''''t run a country on "charisma" alone. Only the experienced need apply...


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Posted by charliegirlg at 12:50 PM : Apr 24, 2008
+ report abuse

Duh?? Where were you in 2000? Compared to Bush Obama has MUCH more going for him Sparky!

[mcvet]

This is the race for President right here folks. IF the Nazi''s can''t defeat Obama HERE and Now they know they have NO chance in November. He has the Money. He has the support! But most important McCain HAS the record of the Republican Party and the Worst President in US History. IF they can NOT make this election about something OTHER than their record, IF they can not get someone on the other side with negatives so high they obscure the record, they can not win. Sieg Heil Bush

[erasmus81]

"Well that''''s good... the NUMBERS don''''t agree with you though... she can''''t catch Obama.. no way no how." Posted by MCVet at 07:20 AM : Apr 25, 2008

Is that indeed true or is that just wishful thinking?

I don''t think it is totally impossible for her to get the numbers she needs.

Tell me something MCVet, sweetie, would you go through withdrawals or something if you didn''t have "Sieg Heil Bush" at the end of every post? Just curious.:)

[tibu987]

I hope that the people of North Carolina and Indiana can see through the facade that is Hillary.

One has only to follow her and Bills careers from Arkansas to the White House and the many scandals they created.

That these two conniving liars may have another shot at the White House is just plain wrong.

A woman will, one day, become the President of the U.S. but, hopefully, it will be someone more deserving, more honest, and more qualified than Hillary.

[tibu987]

I predict that McCain will lose with the least amount of votes ever no matter who the Democratic candidate is.

People, me included, just do not want an extension of the policies of the Bush administration. McCain only promises to continue what the Bush cabal has started, and no one wants that.