April 22, 2008
Analysis: Spinning The Wheels In Dem Race
CBSNews.com's Vaughn Ververs Says Pa. Primary Clarifies Nothing In Clinton-Obama Battle
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Pennsylvania Primary Analysis
Katie Couric speaks with senior political analyst Jeff Greenfield and chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer about the high expectations surrounding the Pennsylvania primary.
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Clinton Clinches The Keystone
Coming out victorious in Pennsylvania, the focus of Hillary Clinton's campaign is now on raising money for her cash-starved campaign. Jim Axelrod reports.
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Obama Looks To N.C., Indiana
Coming a close second in the pivotal Pennsylvania primary, Barack Obama is looking forward to North Carolina and Indiana in a race that is far from over. Dean Reynolds reports.
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(CBS/AP)
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Photo Essay
Keystone Contest
Pennsylvania Democrats cast their votes in another key primary battle.
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Timeline
Democratic Campaign Trail
Notable events in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.
After six weeks of intense campaigning, tens of millions of dollars worth of television ads and controversies enveloping both Democratic candidates, the much-anticipated Pennsylvania primary yielded much sound and fury while clarifying nothing.
Hillary Clinton did what she needed to do in order to continue her campaign into North Carolina and Indiana two weeks from now, perhaps through the end of the primary process in June and potentially all the way to the Democratic convention in August. She almost certainly muted any calls for her to exit the race.
Barack Obama was unable to do what he needed, which was an outright victory in Pennsylvania or at least a very narrow loss. Either scenario could have effectively ended the race right now. His failure to do so casts at least a sliver of doubt on his candidacy, his seemingly insurmountable delegate lead and near lock on the nomination.
After months of campaigning, unprecedented coverage unfathomable resources and record voter interest, the only thing that’s clear in this race is uncertainty.
The cultural divide within the Democratic Party was on full display once again in Philadelphia, with support for both candidates breaking down among familiar lines of gender, race, income and education. The emergence of religion as a fault line in the state was striking. Clinton carried nearly 70 percent of the state’s Catholic vote. (Read more analysis on the exit polls)
Those divisions threaten to drive the party to distraction. It is a race stuck in neutral with the finish line just feet away.
Mathematically speaking, Clinton has almost no chance to overtake Obama in the measurable metrics of the race. In pledged delegates and the popular vote, there simply aren’t enough left up for grabs for her to take the lead barring a complete Obama meltdown.
But he cannot clinch to nomination simply with those measures either. He will still need a good number of the remaining free agent superdelegates to flock to his cause and Pennsylvania gives them more to think about.
As late as Tuesday morning, Obama was describing his task in Pennsylvania as "an uphill battle." This despite the fact that he outspent Clinton as much as three-to-one in a state that is not inconsequential. Looking broader, Obama has won more states overall, but among battleground states that will be important in the fall, only Missouri went for him. California, New Jersey, Ohio (Florida and Michigan with asterisks) and now Pennsylvania all fell Clinton’s way.
Should a prohibitive front-runner face an "uphill" battle in Pennsylvania at the end of this long campaign? That is but one of the questions hanging over Obama as this race goes forward. The other will be how much have recent controversies harmed his candidacy?
Pennsylvania was not only an important battleground state, it was one which came at the end of a six-week cooling off period in the primary process. In the course of that pause, Obama was faced with controversial statement from his longtime friend and pastor Jeremiah Wright and his awkward assertion that small town Americans "cling" to their guns and religion out of bitterness. While there’s little direct evidence to show that those episodes held him down in Pennsylvania, he clearly did not make any inroads among those voters who might have taken them into account, voters the Democratic nominee will need in November.Pennsylvania Results
One thing is increasingly clear - Democrats who’ve taken sides are becoming entrenched. According to CBS News exit polls, 62 percent of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania said they would not be satisfied with Obama as their nominee while 52 percent of his voters said they would be dissatisfied with her. More troublesome, 25 percent of her voters and 16 percent of his said they would vote for John McCain in the fall if their candidate is not in the race.
Going forward, Obama’s campaign is signaling that it will begin making the argument against McCain as much as continue the fight with Clinton. After a fairly solid thrashing in Pennsylvania, that might be a dangerous strategy. He will be forced to engage a re-energized Clinton in Indiana, the next make-or-break contest, and it’s likely to be at high volume if not negative.
So the battle of attrition continues, with each Democratic candidate wearing down the other and still nothing settled. ‘Round and round it goes. Where and how it ends, nobody still knows for sure.
By Vaughn Ververs
© MMVIII, CBS Interactive, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

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Pennsylvania Results



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See all 88 CommentsIf it Hillary takes this to the convention, I say let her have it . . . 3 months isn''t enough time to mend wounds. I think by that time she ought to be forced to reap what she''s sown and let Barack have the shot against McCain in 2012.
It might be the only way to purge the party of the Clintons . . .
http://www.correntewire.com/stay_classy_0
OBAMA GIVING HILLARY THE FINGER (nice guy, huh?)
Posted by truth-hurts
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Sheesh .. he scratched his face OMFGBBQ with his middle finger ... big friggin deal .. thats a desperate accusation
no way he can win in nov. he spent 35 + million
and still no obamo
no way he can win in nov. he spent 35 + million
and still no obamo
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Posted by popstom1 at 03:48 AM : Apr 23, 2008
report abuse
You do realize that you Nazi''s grow less relevant by the minute don''t you?? ROFLMAO Sieg Heil Bush
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q5Y-PHiOdI
Hillary "Karl Rove" Clinton
Watch media clips of Hillary saying she would NEVER resort to these tactics.
He also came from a 20% deficit in PA from a month ago. A sad loss but it was suspected.
Obama outspent Hillary 3 to 1 in PA
Obama had all the support from America''''s most corrupt institution, our mostly liberal MSM wolfpack press
Obama had all the support from liberal Hollywood (Michael Moore..........etc ........etc. Oprah)
Obama had all the support from Americas liberal colleges and universties
OBAMA LOST PA BY DOUBLE DIGITS and after 7 weeks of pure "pro-Obama propaganda campaign by the three corrupt groups mentioned above.
But the American people saw through all the bilitz of liberal pro-Obama propaganda to win BIG!
The Tide Has Turned......................
Posted by mrmazerati at 08:06 AM : Apr 23, 2008
As one of many Independents, I have the privilege of often being privvy to opinions from both camps. the consensus is that Clinton is the preferred candidate to face. Here''s why:
1. Her premise of being ''experienced in foreign policy" would melt down and the GOP could exploit all her lying and fudging against true credentials.
2. Her smear tactics against Obama would be played and replayed to rub salt in the wounds of old Obama supporters and McCain would lament him being attacked just like he was in 2000. (she will be painted as George Bush)
3. For HIspanics--McCain will point out that while Hill and Obama "talked" about letting illegals in, he is the only one that stood up and took on his entire party and risked his own legacy and stood up for them in day light not the usual wink wink. (both HRC and Obama abstained in the I.I bid for cloture and HRC flip flopped on DL for NY Illegals)
See next post
This is important, because it will show HE is the real thing and as usual, she is a fake hypocrite.
2. The GOP will trot out how the DNC disenfranchised Fl and Mi and at the same time how they stole the nomination away from the actual public by selecting Clinton (feeding the resentment fires)
3. He will point out the ugly, negative campaigning and how he DEFENDED Obama and fired people or refuted them. He will talk about how when Hillary would not say Obama could be CIC he immediately and without hesitation said "Absolutely"
4. If necessary and she brings up the S & L, Whispering voices will bring up Whitewater, Hsu, her own connections to Rezko, the conviction of her campaign manager on campaign fraud (later overturned) and her CURRENT case of campaign fraud that is quietly wending its way through the LA courts along with video to prove Hillary is dirty. next post
He will point to the mutual embrace of the "vast right wing conspiracy" and some might even point out that Hillary is really a manchurian candidate sent from the GOP in the 1970s to wait for the perfect storm and she would defuse it. They will dig up the lies and dishonesty of her Watergate years (and the firing for hiding documents), her Goldwater girl status and her cosiness with the GOP now.
The idea will be to inject a huge wedge of doubt in Independents and some Democrats that Hillary was ever a true Democrat at all. They will use her personality and behavior in this campaign against her.
Everyone says it will work. Why? Because all across the land, Hillary has faked who she is and what she has really done or supported. McCain has appeared far more truthful. His bid hinges on voters deciding to vote for the candidate they can more trust. next post
Hillary is sooo flawed in so many ways (with or without Bill) that for the first time this year, many in the GOP look at her and are salivating. see next post
He will underline that Hillary is just as bad as he is--but only HE is more honest about it and he does not come with Bill clinton attached. Then he''ll point out how he ran his primary and even applauded and defended Obama and point out what Hillary did. Hillary will be pilloried--and the group to lose is the one that Obama holds....Independents and new voters. If you must vote for a potential devil, better the one who admits they are the devil, than the one who pretends she is not but all her actions say she surely is. It will be the trust issue--and it could very well sink HRC and Bill.
McCain will position himself as the natural recipient of former Obama supporters---and many Independents will go to him and some Obama supporters may also go as punishment to HRC and her tactics. He will talk about how unfair and ugly the DNC elections were and how ultimately the voters did not get to make their choice--and the message will resonate, then he''ll bring up the honesty factor. When Hillary talks about moving the troops out--McCain will point out how much she flip flops and how she said she would and would not all within the same year. it will be the trust issue--and HIllary will lose (most likely) and when it is over--most Dems except her supporters, and most Independents and most Republicans will all agree that it was Hillary''s own fault and that the Democrats were fools. The plan is going along nicely and the desire of HRC supporters, the strategic weakness of most dems and HIllary''s own drive will mean they remain blind until the trap is truly sprung.
it could not have happened if Dems would ever learn the art of manipulation and realize when they are being played. Face it, under no circumstances should any Dem ever trust GOP propaganda pundits working in their favor--it is not true support--it is a set up.
Posted by joe1022joe at 09:03 AM : Apr 23, 2008
Unfortunately, you are probably right. The scenario gets even worse with Hillary. She might end up like Ferraro and Dukakis, winning all of 14 electoral votes.
Her being a woman will not be the factor--it will be her being herself. She has done the GOP dirty work so well, but what she never realized is that it will be used to show her up for what she is...if she is the nominee and the Independents will run to McCain . Even if all Dems vote for Hillary, 36% does not and cannot trump the other 64% that will leave in droves once the GOP attack machine connects all the ugly dots. Lord help HIllary if she was stupid enough to say something against the Dems or promise something to the GOP when she courted the vast right wing vote. Because they will have it on tape and they will use it.
I''''ve grown up with here in Penna. and sad to say that there is a rather intolerant side to the Demo Party to real change & acceptance that is needed. To the Rendell, Clinton crowd, they thrive on this common knowledge, and is little wonder that Hillary came into Pa. with a 30 point lead and expected to win by at least 25 points.
Senator Obama refused to give up on the People. With the mocking, cackling old show Clintons in the background he gave his message of Hope, Change and the need for this Country to get past the negative polictics and get back to doing the work of the People. Yes, He Cares!
AS for Hillary, Wheeeeeee this is fun! I''''m just warming up. 110,000,000 year is MY money. Show me more of YOUR money. CACKLE CACKLE CACKLE.... Sooooo SAD!
Sorry but thanks for playin! Maybe next time :)
Posted by jh6379 at 09:14 AM : Apr 23, 2008
My predictions are ugly--but they are not wrong. In fact since 1982, I have never been wrong about any political race I prognosticated. Not how it would turn out, not how the game would be played. You will see. Watch what happens in NOv. Obama is the DNC''s only hope and due to Hillary, even that hope is slim.
Consider how Obama and Clinton both talk about McCain and also consider how cosy both are getting with the right. It could be that the only way the GOP could hang on to the white house was divide the vote by tempting and securing a Dem VP --now, with Clinton''s antics--they have more than one option for securing the win.
I don''t see that happening and I don''t see a Democratic dream ticket either.
If Hillary does not find a way to legitimately carry the popular vote and/or pledged delegates and the garners the nomination by working the system Obam isn''t going to turn around and belie everything he stands for by teaming up with Mccain.
Hillary, I believe, already has her sights on 2012 and won''t want to become part of a McCain administration either. She wants to sabotage Obama because she knows she''s lost this year and she''ll be history by 2016 when whoever Obama''s VP choice is becomes the Democratic heir-apparent.
She needs the Democrats to lose this year to make it back to the White House herself.
Posted by b-easy63 at 09:43 AM : Apr 23, 2008"
I had not thought of this before. It''s obvious that McCain is waiting to see what the outcome will be but I was thinking he was doing so simply to determine what running mate would best counter the Dems strong points.
I''m not sure I buy the idea of either Dem candidate crossing over to be the Rep VP, that would be a really desperate move and could very easily be a career ender.
If you want proof that folks make their minds up based on little research or input.. just think.. 4 yrs ago, somehow, a majority of Americans wanted 4 more yrs of Bush. That was something I never would have thought possible, knew scant people who could tolerate him.. anyone who reads a newspaper, sees the news, lives a real life, all knew and know how incredibly incompetent Bush is as Prez.... well, these are the same kind of people, but they support Clinton instead..
Posted by joe1022joe at 09:29 AM : Apr 23, 2008"
The fight against McCain hasn''t even started yet, I think your declarations about the inevitability of this race are very premature. One thing to be learned about the history of American politics, every race is different. Making prognostications based on any previous race is a fools errand.
HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR GAS ....
HOPE WILL NOT CURE YOUR CANCER ...
HOPE WILL NAT MAKE YOU WIN IN NOVEMBER ...
NOBAMA IS GIVING Y''ALL FALSE-HOPE.
Posted by ojama at 10:19 AM : Apr 23, 2008"
Incompetent? you mean by allowing the American people to actually choose their nominee?
Allowing every state to get their say in is not incompetent, it''s historic. When was the last time a candidate wasn''t known by the end of March? when was the last time we actually had a serious throw-down for the nomination? This is real democracy at it''s gritty best.
Politics as usual has had the opportunity to pay the motgage, the gas bill, or cured cancer.
They do generally win in Novemeber because of sheep like you.
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