April 22, 2008

Analysis: Spinning The Wheels In Dem Race

CBSNews.com's Vaughn Ververs Says Pa. Primary Clarifies Nothing In Clinton-Obama Battle

  • Play CBS Video Video Pennsylvania Primary Analysis

    Katie Couric speaks with senior political analyst Jeff Greenfield and chief Washington correspondent Bob Schieffer about the high expectations surrounding the Pennsylvania primary.

  • Video Clinton Clinches The Keystone

    Coming out victorious in Pennsylvania, the focus of Hillary Clinton's campaign is now on raising money for her cash-starved campaign. Jim Axelrod reports.

  • Video Obama Looks To N.C., Indiana

    Coming a close second in the pivotal Pennsylvania primary, Barack Obama is looking forward to North Carolina and Indiana in a race that is far from over. Dean Reynolds reports.

  • Photo

     (CBS/AP)

  • Photo Essay Keystone Contest

    Pennsylvania Democrats cast their votes in another key primary battle.

  • Timeline Democratic Campaign Trail

    Notable events in the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.


After six weeks of intense campaigning, tens of millions of dollars worth of television ads and controversies enveloping both Democratic candidates, the much-anticipated Pennsylvania primary yielded much sound and fury while clarifying nothing.

Hillary Clinton did what she needed to do in order to continue her campaign into North Carolina and Indiana two weeks from now, perhaps through the end of the primary process in June and potentially all the way to the Democratic convention in August. She almost certainly muted any calls for her to exit the race.

Barack Obama was unable to do what he needed, which was an outright victory in Pennsylvania or at least a very narrow loss. Either scenario could have effectively ended the race right now. His failure to do so casts at least a sliver of doubt on his candidacy, his seemingly insurmountable delegate lead and near lock on the nomination.

After months of campaigning, unprecedented coverage unfathomable resources and record voter interest, the only thing that’s clear in this race is uncertainty.

The cultural divide within the Democratic Party was on full display once again in Philadelphia, with support for both candidates breaking down among familiar lines of gender, race, income and education. The emergence of religion as a fault line in the state was striking. Clinton carried nearly 70 percent of the state’s Catholic vote. (Read more analysis on the exit polls)

Those divisions threaten to drive the party to distraction. It is a race stuck in neutral with the finish line just feet away.

Mathematically speaking, Clinton has almost no chance to overtake Obama in the measurable metrics of the race. In pledged delegates and the popular vote, there simply aren’t enough left up for grabs for her to take the lead barring a complete Obama meltdown.

But he cannot clinch to nomination simply with those measures either. He will still need a good number of the remaining free agent superdelegates to flock to his cause and Pennsylvania gives them more to think about.

As late as Tuesday morning, Obama was describing his task in Pennsylvania as "an uphill battle." This despite the fact that he outspent Clinton as much as three-to-one in a state that is not inconsequential. Looking broader, Obama has won more states overall, but among battleground states that will be important in the fall, only Missouri went for him. California, New Jersey, Ohio (Florida and Michigan with asterisks) and now Pennsylvania all fell Clinton’s way.

Should a prohibitive front-runner face an "uphill" battle in Pennsylvania at the end of this long campaign? That is but one of the questions hanging over Obama as this race goes forward. The other will be how much have recent controversies harmed his candidacy?

Pennsylvania Results

Pennsylvania was not only an important battleground state, it was one which came at the end of a six-week cooling off period in the primary process. In the course of that pause, Obama was faced with controversial statement from his longtime friend and pastor Jeremiah Wright and his awkward assertion that small town Americans "cling" to their guns and religion out of bitterness. While there’s little direct evidence to show that those episodes held him down in Pennsylvania, he clearly did not make any inroads among those voters who might have taken them into account, voters the Democratic nominee will need in November.

One thing is increasingly clear - Democrats who’ve taken sides are becoming entrenched. According to CBS News exit polls, 62 percent of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania said they would not be satisfied with Obama as their nominee while 52 percent of his voters said they would be dissatisfied with her. More troublesome, 25 percent of her voters and 16 percent of his said they would vote for John McCain in the fall if their candidate is not in the race.

Going forward, Obama’s campaign is signaling that it will begin making the argument against McCain as much as continue the fight with Clinton. After a fairly solid thrashing in Pennsylvania, that might be a dangerous strategy. He will be forced to engage a re-energized Clinton in Indiana, the next make-or-break contest, and it’s likely to be at high volume if not negative.

So the battle of attrition continues, with each Democratic candidate wearing down the other and still nothing settled. ‘Round and round it goes. Where and how it ends, nobody still knows for sure.

By Vaughn Ververs
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Add a Comment See all 88 Comments
by samthetvcat April 23, 2008 12:12 AM PDT
-----"So the battle of attrition continues, with each Democratic candidate wearing down the other and still nothing settled. %u2018Round and round it goes. Where and how it ends, nobody still knows for sure"-----

If it Hillary takes this to the convention, I say let her have it . . . 3 months isn''t enough time to mend wounds. I think by that time she ought to be forced to reap what she''s sown and let Barack have the shot against McCain in 2012.

It might be the only way to purge the party of the Clintons . . .
Reply to this comment
by abmitus April 23, 2008 12:34 AM PDT
I say hell noSam the TVCat. She need to go with all her negative stunts. I f she is the nominee, I will not vot for her disgusting ***.
Reply to this comment
by truth-hurts April 23, 2008 1:50 AM PDT
OBAMA GIVING HILLARY THE FINGER (nice guy, huh?)

http://www.correntewire.com/stay_classy_0
Reply to this comment
by cyberus-2009 April 23, 2008 2:16 AM PDT
---
OBAMA GIVING HILLARY THE FINGER (nice guy, huh?)

Posted by truth-hurts
---
Sheesh .. he scratched his face OMFGBBQ with his middle finger ... big friggin deal .. thats a desperate accusation
Reply to this comment
by agog2 April 23, 2008 2:36 AM PDT
Come on people get real, it''''s great that Hillary won Pennsylvania!!! Go all the way Hillary! At least Hillary has the courage to say what she will do about what''''s wrong in America, all you ever hear Obama say is that it''''s time for a change, whoppee, that really helps my situation. He likes to say whats wrong but never says what he''''s going to do about it, wake up america and open up your ears and listen to him, he''''s not saying anything! If you want to know about Hillary go to her website. HillaryClinton.com and see how she grew up, she''''s been dedicated to helping people of all races, veterens, kids, etc. etc
Reply to this comment
by cruiser111-2009 April 23, 2008 3:05 AM PDT
Hillary has absolutely no chance of winning the nomination. If i were Barack i would ignore her and focus on Mcain.
Reply to this comment
by popstom1 April 23, 2008 3:48 AM PDT
If bamabi can''t carry the big dem states theres
no way he can win in nov. he spent 35 + million
and still no obamo
Reply to this comment
by onceagirl April 23, 2008 4:22 AM PDT
Lol..I guess we want politics as usual...when Senator Clinton won Penn...we as a people as a whole...want someone who lies to us with a smile, lines their pockets for themselves and their friends at our expense, blindly follow our fellow lemmings to the edge of disastor, ready to leap in blind faith.....lol..but maybe this is history truly repeating itself and we are all inching towards the finalities that God will punish those who break his commandments with great disrespect. We are standing under the tower of Babel with silly smiles unknowing of the punishments that are on our horizons.
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by cfin5 April 23, 2008 5:36 AM PDT
Election mathematics Religious mathematics.
Reply to this comment
by cfin5 April 23, 2008 5:41 AM PDT
Election mathematics "are lesser than" Religious mathematics.......Sorry, I tried to use the "greater than, lesser than" sign between the two on my last post.
Reply to this comment
by mcvet April 23, 2008 5:43 AM PDT
So this race continues on across the Country, comsuming all in it''s path. When was the last time the folks in the two states coming up actually had a chance to make a difference in a choice like this. The REAL losers here is the Republican Party. Whoever comes out on top in this thing is going to roll over McSame like a speed bump. America LOVES a winner folks of this there is no doubt and numbers of voters getting involved in this has got to make the leaders of the Democrat Party smile big time. Right now, in some parts of this nation, the Republican Party is a after though... also ran''s who could hold a convention in a Phone Booth. Sure their canidate is close NOW, in the heat of this battle, but ONCE a winner is crowned, ONCE the choice has been made by these MILLIONS of voters?? LOL There''s little chance the voters in the General Election will be in much of a mood for the standard fascist mud slinging... not against the winner of this struggle. LOL Sieg Heil Bush!!
Reply to this comment
by mcvet April 23, 2008 5:44 AM PDT
If bamabi can''''t carry the big dem states theres
no way he can win in nov. he spent 35 + million
and still no obamo


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted by popstom1 at 03:48 AM : Apr 23, 2008
report abuse

You do realize that you Nazi''s grow less relevant by the minute don''t you?? ROFLMAO Sieg Heil Bush
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by April 23, 2008 6:03 AM PDT
So now we continue to watch the spectacle of one candidate clawing kicking scratching dragging another candidate down in the vilest display of ambition since lady macbeth plotted to become queen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Q5Y-PHiOdI
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by cfin5 April 23, 2008 6:11 AM PDT
Senator McCains problem is that he doesn''t believe that President Bush has already spent the political capital the GOP had in the Politibank. Ron Paul understands VERY WELL this is the case. I''m sure glad that approximately 130,000 Americans in Pennsylvania understand this,......and I thank them for it!
Reply to this comment
by DCropp April 23, 2008 6:13 AM PDT
Clinton''s use of Osama Bin Laden, gave her a 2-3 point gain for a few days. In the next week, look for traditional Democrats to criticize her for this.

Hillary "Karl Rove" Clinton

Watch media clips of Hillary saying she would NEVER resort to these tactics.
Reply to this comment
by vet_sk April 23, 2008 6:21 AM PDT
I agree with cruiser111. For Clinton to have really won last night, she needed 65% - a full 39$ margin. She got 10$, 200,000 and 13 delegates. Obama will regain at least this much in North Carolina. He''ll be able to give Florida to Clinton (votes and delegates) and still be on top with popular vote and delegates.
He also came from a 20% deficit in PA from a month ago. A sad loss but it was suspected.
Reply to this comment
by perceptions5 April 23, 2008 6:50 AM PDT
The Tide Has Turned............

Obama outspent Hillary 3 to 1 in PA

Obama had all the support from America''''s most corrupt institution, our mostly liberal MSM wolfpack press

Obama had all the support from liberal Hollywood (Michael Moore..........etc ........etc. Oprah)

Obama had all the support from Americas liberal colleges and universties

OBAMA LOST PA BY DOUBLE DIGITS and after 7 weeks of pure "pro-Obama propaganda campaign by the three corrupt groups mentioned above.

But the American people saw through all the bilitz of liberal pro-Obama propaganda to win BIG!

The Tide Has Turned......................

Reply to this comment
by dante805 April 23, 2008 7:52 AM PDT
OBINATION. OBama P.O.ed the average white voter with his "Punished with a baby" comment, his elitist statement about bitter small town voters to rich liberal SanFran snobs, his love of Hate Pastor Wright and a whole bunch of other lies. Now we will see the media spin the fact that Whites won''t vote for a Black. I can see it now - how about the 90% in lock step Blacks who vote for Blacks. Give me a break. The S.O.S. Obamination train has come off the tracks. Snake Oil Salesman and Style over Substance is not working to fool the average hard-working voter. No wonder 40% of Clinton supporters will either not vote or Support John McCain. Thanks a lot Howard Dean!
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by mrmazerati April 23, 2008 8:06 AM PDT
Was a very interesting race last night. Clinton didn''t blow Obama out in raw votes, which she should have done. Penn. is as about a perfect scenario for her as it gets. However, the map of the state overwhelmingly favored her, except for the heavily urban area around Philly. This lends ammo to her argument that she appeals to a wider cross section and the heart of the mainstream electorate. I think this was also closely watched by the Republicans. I think the feeling among them may be that they would rather face Obama than Clinton, simply because Obama''s support is more concentrated and therefore more precipitous. For Hillary to win, the super delegates would have to believe the same. So it''s psychological warfare at this point.
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by mrmazerati April 23, 2008 8:16 AM PDT
As an independent, I would also make the following bold statement: it really doesn''t matter who wins or loses in the general election. McCain is not a radical right Republican. Both Hillary and Obama are intelligent and competent. Any of the three would do a far, far better job than Bush and I would be proud to have them leading the country. This is an exciting election, but to me it''s not a deal breaker for the country. Bush is on the way out, that''s the important thing. Everything else at this point is just a horse race. I say good job, America.
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 8:20 AM PDT
I think the feeling among them may be that they would rather face Obama than Clinton, simply because Obama''''s support is more concentrated and therefore more precipitous. For Hillary to win, the super delegates would have to believe the same. So it''''s psychological warfare at this point.

Posted by mrmazerati at 08:06 AM : Apr 23, 2008

As one of many Independents, I have the privilege of often being privvy to opinions from both camps. the consensus is that Clinton is the preferred candidate to face. Here''s why:

1. Her premise of being ''experienced in foreign policy" would melt down and the GOP could exploit all her lying and fudging against true credentials.

2. Her smear tactics against Obama would be played and replayed to rub salt in the wounds of old Obama supporters and McCain would lament him being attacked just like he was in 2000. (she will be painted as George Bush)

3. For HIspanics--McCain will point out that while Hill and Obama "talked" about letting illegals in, he is the only one that stood up and took on his entire party and risked his own legacy and stood up for them in day light not the usual wink wink. (both HRC and Obama abstained in the I.I bid for cloture and HRC flip flopped on DL for NY Illegals)

See next post
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by dante805 April 23, 2008 8:20 AM PDT
Thanks a lot Howard Dean! You just ruined the DEM party. 6 more weeks of McCain getting a free ride. 6 More weeks of Obama and Clinton fighting eachother. Obama lost PA because he scares "Bitter" Small Town voters. Unlike Obama they wouldn''t rather have their daughters get an abortion than be "Punished" with a baby. They don''t cuddle up to San Fran liberal ideas. They are conservative in nature - Obama is Socialist in nature. Michelle divisive comments are helping at all - She and Bill need to shut up and take a long vacation. Thanks a lot Howard Dean! , thanks a lot.
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by blackspirit3 April 23, 2008 8:20 AM PDT
SO HILLARY AND BILL WAS RIGHT - PENN IS FILLED WITH DUMB UNEDUCATED WHITE RACIST PEOPLE. SHE KNOWS HER HOMETOWN WELL.
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 8:27 AM PDT
McCain will identify with Obama in that in 2000 he was relentless attacked with smear jobs. He and the GOP will identify Clinton with Bush. This is already happening and the Dems act like they don''t see it. Her record of supporting (or at least not voting against)most Bush policies including the torture bill, immunity for the telecoms for wiretapping, FISA and the war will come out. Never mind that his record is similar--he will paint her as a traitor to her own party and a collaborator with the right.

This is important, because it will show HE is the real thing and as usual, she is a fake hypocrite.

2. The GOP will trot out how the DNC disenfranchised Fl and Mi and at the same time how they stole the nomination away from the actual public by selecting Clinton (feeding the resentment fires)

3. He will point out the ugly, negative campaigning and how he DEFENDED Obama and fired people or refuted them. He will talk about how when Hillary would not say Obama could be CIC he immediately and without hesitation said "Absolutely"

4. If necessary and she brings up the S & L, Whispering voices will bring up Whitewater, Hsu, her own connections to Rezko, the conviction of her campaign manager on campaign fraud (later overturned) and her CURRENT case of campaign fraud that is quietly wending its way through the LA courts along with video to prove Hillary is dirty. next post
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by blackspirit3 April 23, 2008 8:28 AM PDT
SO HILLARY AND BILL WAS RIGHT - PENN IS FILLED WITH BUNCH OF DUMB, UNEDUCATED, NON COLLEGE GRADUATING, BROOM PUSHING, TOILET CLEANING, WHITE RACIST PEOPLE. SHE KNOWS HER HOMETOWN WELL. SHE WON BECAUSE A WHITE RACIST KNOWS THE MINDS OF WHITE RACIST PEOPLE. SHE KNOWS HER CONSTITUENCY WELL, POOR, WHITE AND UNEDUCATED.
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 8:42 AM PDT
He and the GOP will point to Hillary''s embrace of fox news, on her willingness to start more wars in the ME (her umbrella of protection comment in the PA debate) and her statements that she would keep troops in Iraq (she has said she would remove them and at other times said they would be there maybe 10 years as a peacekeeping force--sort of what they are now)

He will point to the mutual embrace of the "vast right wing conspiracy" and some might even point out that Hillary is really a manchurian candidate sent from the GOP in the 1970s to wait for the perfect storm and she would defuse it. They will dig up the lies and dishonesty of her Watergate years (and the firing for hiding documents), her Goldwater girl status and her cosiness with the GOP now.

The idea will be to inject a huge wedge of doubt in Independents and some Democrats that Hillary was ever a true Democrat at all. They will use her personality and behavior in this campaign against her.

Everyone says it will work. Why? Because all across the land, Hillary has faked who she is and what she has really done or supported. McCain has appeared far more truthful. His bid hinges on voters deciding to vote for the candidate they can more trust. next post
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by mrmazerati April 23, 2008 8:43 AM PDT
Hillary and Bill WERE right- not WAS right. If you''re going to insult someone''s intelligence and education, it''s best to do it using proper grammar.
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 8:44 AM PDT
We might not like his policies, but at least we know what they really are and who he really is--the key to defeating Hillary will be to point out a very obvious and ugly truth--she does not keep her promises, she beds snakes when needed, she is a liar and a backstabber (by going against her signed DNC pledge) she is in bed with the right, she makes deals to put money in her own pocket...in the end which do you want? The candidate who is honest enough to be himself and to vote true to his word and stand by it--or the candidate who is very divisive, will lie, cheat and fake who she is, is known to be an promise breaker, flip flops and really--is a fake Republican?
Hillary is sooo flawed in so many ways (with or without Bill) that for the first time this year, many in the GOP look at her and are salivating. see next post
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 8:44 AM PDT
There is a huge private joke--that by allowing Hillary to continue and inject race and go very negative--the GOP does not have to. By their very actions, HIllary and Hillary supporters show how they can be manipulated by the right and how again, Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and like in 2000 and 2004 will appear shell shocked when they lose massively. It''s all be set up under their noses and they are too blind and ruled by emotion to see most of this.. And it will work. Because the one group Hillary would need to win, Hates her with a capital H--that is most of Independents. Them coupled with even 10% of the Dems would mean a landslide unless many Republicans run to Hillary. That will never happen. Bill''s existence will see to that. The love affair of Hillary and the right will stop the minute she gets the nomination and to attack her--all they have to do is rerun her campaign from smears to debt to her lies to her citing her and McCain as the best of the best--and he REALLY has the foreign policy experience. As for the economy--perhaps he''ll pull a page from Obama''s book and quip that he can always tap Clinton or Obama for advice in that arena. Good plan, isn''t it?
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 8:49 AM PDT
OBAMA scares many in the GOP due to his majority of support within the Independents. The Dems are 36% of the electorate, the GOP is 34%. They have to get their winning numbers from either Independents or defectors. For McCain, that means Hillary''s supporters must really come through for him if Obama is the nominee. But if Clinton is the nominee, he does not need any Dems, he will just try to get the Independents who may not like the GOP right now but most hate Hillary.

He will underline that Hillary is just as bad as he is--but only HE is more honest about it and he does not come with Bill clinton attached. Then he''ll point out how he ran his primary and even applauded and defended Obama and point out what Hillary did. Hillary will be pilloried--and the group to lose is the one that Obama holds....Independents and new voters. If you must vote for a potential devil, better the one who admits they are the devil, than the one who pretends she is not but all her actions say she surely is. It will be the trust issue--and it could very well sink HRC and Bill.
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by watithink April 23, 2008 8:51 AM PDT
Jimmy Carter is possibly our best X president; I like Jimmy Carter, I voted for Jimmy Carter. Mr. Obama reminds me of Jimmy Carter. He talks about improving just about everything, he talks about extracting us for a bad overseas position. I like Jimmy Carter . . . Jimmy Carter was one of the most ineffective Presidents we have ever had! We can''t afford to train another good X President. I won''t be voting for Mr. Obama.
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by joe1022joe April 23, 2008 9:03 AM PDT
Neither Obama or Clinton can win in November, each for his/her own fatal reasons. These factors (and we''re all aware of what they are) cannot be fixed or turned around. The Democratic Party regularly goes into suicide mode -- 1952 and 1956 with Stephenson. Remember the Democratic Convention of 1968? Then McGovern in 1972. Next the Ted Kennedy challange to Carter as sitting President in 1980. Then Dukakis. The Dems simply do not not have a grasp of what makes the majority of American voters tick. This is another one of those years. Obama will lose 45 states and the Dems will lose control of the Senate and possibly the House, too.
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 9:08 AM PDT
If HRC somehow is the nominee, this will all happen. And when it does the Democrats will have fallen for the biggest okie doke of all time. Hillary will have her own words come back home to roost. Her lies, her ties, her inexperience compared to McCAin, her strategy her smears....
McCain will position himself as the natural recipient of former Obama supporters---and many Independents will go to him and some Obama supporters may also go as punishment to HRC and her tactics. He will talk about how unfair and ugly the DNC elections were and how ultimately the voters did not get to make their choice--and the message will resonate, then he''ll bring up the honesty factor. When Hillary talks about moving the troops out--McCain will point out how much she flip flops and how she said she would and would not all within the same year. it will be the trust issue--and HIllary will lose (most likely) and when it is over--most Dems except her supporters, and most Independents and most Republicans will all agree that it was Hillary''s own fault and that the Democrats were fools. The plan is going along nicely and the desire of HRC supporters, the strategic weakness of most dems and HIllary''s own drive will mean they remain blind until the trap is truly sprung.
Reply to this comment
by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 9:09 AM PDT
Even if Hillary is not the nominee, the trap will work the same. McCain will not have to go neg on Obama, just replay Hillary''s campaign and watch HRC supporters flock to him while never having to do more than repeat her words. The best Rovian tactic is to let the other teams strength defeat themselves. Remember when this all happens--you heard it all here first.

it could not have happened if Dems would ever learn the art of manipulation and realize when they are being played. Face it, under no circumstances should any Dem ever trust GOP propaganda pundits working in their favor--it is not true support--it is a set up.
Reply to this comment
by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 9:16 AM PDT
Neither Obama or Clinton can win in November, each for his/her own fatal reasons. These factors (and we''''re all aware of what they are) cannot be fixed or turned around. The Democratic Party regularly goes into suicide mode -- 1952 and 1956 with Stephenson. Remember the Democratic Convention of 1968? Then McGovern in 1972. Next the Ted Kennedy challange to Carter as sitting President in 1980. Then Dukakis. The Dems simply do not not have a grasp of what makes the majority of American voters tick. This is another one of those years. Obama will lose 45 states and the Dems will lose control of the Senate and possibly the House, too.

Posted by joe1022joe at 09:03 AM : Apr 23, 2008


Unfortunately, you are probably right. The scenario gets even worse with Hillary. She might end up like Ferraro and Dukakis, winning all of 14 electoral votes.

Her being a woman will not be the factor--it will be her being herself. She has done the GOP dirty work so well, but what she never realized is that it will be used to show her up for what she is...if she is the nominee and the Independents will run to McCain . Even if all Dems vote for Hillary, 36% does not and cannot trump the other 64% that will leave in droves once the GOP attack machine connects all the ugly dots. Lord help HIllary if she was stupid enough to say something against the Dems or promise something to the GOP when she courted the vast right wing vote. Because they will have it on tape and they will use it.
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by pepperwood2 April 23, 2008 9:17 AM PDT
You have to remember that Hillary did nothing to win in Penna, except to show up. It should come as little surprise that the Old Guard Rendell, Clinton polictics dominate the rather inflexible DEMO population of Penna. The Status Quo prejudice polictics is dominant.

I''''ve grown up with here in Penna. and sad to say that there is a rather intolerant side to the Demo Party to real change & acceptance that is needed. To the Rendell, Clinton crowd, they thrive on this common knowledge, and is little wonder that Hillary came into Pa. with a 30 point lead and expected to win by at least 25 points.

Senator Obama refused to give up on the People. With the mocking, cackling old show Clintons in the background he gave his message of Hope, Change and the need for this Country to get past the negative polictics and get back to doing the work of the People. Yes, He Cares!

AS for Hillary, Wheeeeeee this is fun! I''''m just warming up. 110,000,000 year is MY money. Show me more of YOUR money. CACKLE CACKLE CACKLE.... Sooooo SAD!

Reply to this comment
by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 9:18 AM PDT
I doubt the Dems will lose Congress, but they appear poised to lose the White HOuse. They will control Congress by slim margins, because while people may go GOP for the President, the actions of Bush almost guarantee we will not give the GOP the majority in Congress any time soon.
Reply to this comment
by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 9:21 AM PDT
our predictions are misguided, weak and wrong.
Sorry but thanks for playin! Maybe next time :)

Posted by jh6379 at 09:14 AM : Apr 23, 2008


My predictions are ugly--but they are not wrong. In fact since 1982, I have never been wrong about any political race I prognosticated. Not how it would turn out, not how the game would be played. You will see. Watch what happens in NOv. Obama is the DNC''s only hope and due to Hillary, even that hope is slim.
Reply to this comment
by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 9:23 AM PDT
Of course, I forgot to mention one other hope of the Dems and it might work seeing as McCain is showing signs of dementia...if McCain has a meltdown, the Dems could still pull this off--but with Hillary the chances are slim to none and with Obama--slim--the GOP will just set the Dems against each other and prove to the Independents that they are more like Obama, than Obama or Hillary are.
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by joe1022joe April 23, 2008 9:29 AM PDT
See my earlier comment. Every time the liberal wing of the Democratic Party takes control, the Dems get the you-know-what dicked out of them in the general election. When will the Dems learn? Probably, never. The active force of the Democratic Party is the wacko left - the San Francisco, Marin County (CA), West Los Angeles (read Hollywood), Manhattan chablis and brie crowd. With these folks at the forefront of the Dems, they can''t win. This, ladies and gentlemen, is axiomatic.
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by b-easy63 April 23, 2008 9:43 AM PDT
Another observation: McCain has not chosen a running mate yet. He appears to be waiting to see who will be the Dem nominee. due to the rancour but also the need to "reach across the aisle" the GOP plan may be to offer the job to who ever loses the Dem nomination. If they accept, it would split the votes and pull many supporters who are really voting for a person and not for the Dem party. If this happens (and I actually thought this was a long shot plan back in February) the Dem who turns GOP VP will tell themselves and their supporters that they did it for the good of the country and crossing those partisan lines. The supporters may buy this. Because they will say their choice is a heartbeat away. This is already feasible.

Consider how Obama and Clinton both talk about McCain and also consider how cosy both are getting with the right. It could be that the only way the GOP could hang on to the white house was divide the vote by tempting and securing a Dem VP --now, with Clinton''s antics--they have more than one option for securing the win.
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by texanforlogi April 23, 2008 10:21 AM PDT
For 4 years now I have been baffled over who was dumb and blind enough to vote for Bush for a second term. The Pennsylvania primary has shed some light on the subject--it was the weak-kneed, yellow-bellied cowards! Run a vicious, misleading, and fearful attack ad and, although they may not like you, you''ll scare them into voting for you. How sad for our country!
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by realpatriot1 April 23, 2008 10:23 AM PDT
b-easy63,

I don''t see that happening and I don''t see a Democratic dream ticket either.

If Hillary does not find a way to legitimately carry the popular vote and/or pledged delegates and the garners the nomination by working the system Obam isn''t going to turn around and belie everything he stands for by teaming up with Mccain.

Hillary, I believe, already has her sights on 2012 and won''t want to become part of a McCain administration either. She wants to sabotage Obama because she knows she''s lost this year and she''ll be history by 2016 when whoever Obama''s VP choice is becomes the Democratic heir-apparent.

She needs the Democrats to lose this year to make it back to the White House herself.
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by taddles-2009 April 23, 2008 10:26 AM PDT
"It could be that the only way the GOP could hang on to the white house was divide the vote by tempting and securing a Dem VP...

Posted by b-easy63 at 09:43 AM : Apr 23, 2008"


I had not thought of this before. It''s obvious that McCain is waiting to see what the outcome will be but I was thinking he was doing so simply to determine what running mate would best counter the Dems strong points.

I''m not sure I buy the idea of either Dem candidate crossing over to be the Rep VP, that would be a really desperate move and could very easily be a career ender.
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by bookwerm314 April 23, 2008 10:28 AM PDT
Many of the folks in PA, same as in the rest of the nation, have their minds made up, and no amount of money, ads or begging will change that significantly. PA is a bit backwards, lots of folks in the rural, move slow, trust Clinton, don''t like new things.
If you want proof that folks make their minds up based on little research or input.. just think.. 4 yrs ago, somehow, a majority of Americans wanted 4 more yrs of Bush. That was something I never would have thought possible, knew scant people who could tolerate him.. anyone who reads a newspaper, sees the news, lives a real life, all knew and know how incredibly incompetent Bush is as Prez.... well, these are the same kind of people, but they support Clinton instead..
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by taddles-2009 April 23, 2008 10:30 AM PDT
"When will the Dems learn? Probably, never.

Posted by joe1022joe at 09:29 AM : Apr 23, 2008"


The fight against McCain hasn''t even started yet, I think your declarations about the inevitability of this race are very premature. One thing to be learned about the history of American politics, every race is different. Making prognostications based on any previous race is a fools errand.
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by repdemapart April 23, 2008 10:32 AM PDT
HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR MORTGAGE ...

HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR GAS ....

HOPE WILL NOT CURE YOUR CANCER ...

HOPE WILL NAT MAKE YOU WIN IN NOVEMBER ...

NOBAMA IS GIVING Y''ALL FALSE-HOPE.
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by taddles-2009 April 23, 2008 10:34 AM PDT
"Could the Democratic party be any more incompetent?

Posted by ojama at 10:19 AM : Apr 23, 2008"


Incompetent? you mean by allowing the American people to actually choose their nominee?

Allowing every state to get their say in is not incompetent, it''s historic. When was the last time a candidate wasn''t known by the end of March? when was the last time we actually had a serious throw-down for the nomination? This is real democracy at it''s gritty best.
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by bogusbones April 23, 2008 10:35 AM PDT
it is unfortunate that in order to stay in power or win power, fear tactics are used instead of doing constructive things for our country. it is a frightful shame and our current "leaders" and their marketing/political gurus understand this and use it blatantly. governance by fear will erode freedoms. someday we''re going to look back and see that there was a day when we could have done something to combat this evil methodology of politics.
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by realpatriot1 April 23, 2008 10:36 AM PDT
RepDemApart,

Politics as usual has had the opportunity to pay the motgage, the gas bill, or cured cancer.

They do generally win in Novemeber because of sheep like you.
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