Analysis: Spinning The Wheels In Dem Race

CBSNews.com's Vaughn Ververs Says Pa. Primary Clarifies Nothing In Clinton-Obama Battle

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBSNews.com senior political editor Vaughn Ververs.

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After six weeks of intense campaigning, tens of millions of dollars worth of television ads and controversies enveloping both Democratic candidates, the much-anticipated Pennsylvania primary yielded much sound and fury while clarifying nothing.

Hillary Clinton did what she needed to do in order to continue her campaign into North Carolina and Indiana two weeks from now, perhaps through the end of the primary process in June and potentially all the way to the Democratic convention in August. She almost certainly muted any calls for her to exit the race.

Barack Obama was unable to do what he needed, which was an outright victory in Pennsylvania or at least a very narrow loss. Either scenario could have effectively ended the race right now. His failure to do so casts at least a sliver of doubt on his candidacy, his seemingly insurmountable delegate lead and near lock on the nomination.

After months of campaigning, unprecedented coverage unfathomable resources and record voter interest, the only thing that’s clear in this race is uncertainty.

The cultural divide within the Democratic Party was on full display once again in Philadelphia, with support for both candidates breaking down among familiar lines of gender, race, income and education. The emergence of religion as a fault line in the state was striking. Clinton carried nearly 70 percent of the state’s Catholic vote. (Read more analysis on the exit polls)

Those divisions threaten to drive the party to distraction. It is a race stuck in neutral with the finish line just feet away.

Mathematically speaking, Clinton has almost no chance to overtake Obama in the measurable metrics of the race. In pledged delegates and the popular vote, there simply aren’t enough left up for grabs for her to take the lead barring a complete Obama meltdown.

But he cannot clinch to nomination simply with those measures either. He will still need a good number of the remaining free agent superdelegates to flock to his cause and Pennsylvania gives them more to think about.

As late as Tuesday morning, Obama was describing his task in Pennsylvania as "an uphill battle." This despite the fact that he outspent Clinton as much as three-to-one in a state that is not inconsequential. Looking broader, Obama has won more states overall, but among battleground states that will be important in the fall, only Missouri went for him. California, New Jersey, Ohio (Florida and Michigan with asterisks) and now Pennsylvania all fell Clinton’s way.

Should a prohibitive front-runner face an "uphill" battle in Pennsylvania at the end of this long campaign? That is but one of the questions hanging over Obama as this race goes forward. The other will be how much have recent controversies harmed his candidacy?

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Pennsylvania Results

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Pennsylvania was not only an important battleground state, it was one which came at the end of a six-week cooling off period in the primary process. In the course of that pause, Obama was faced with controversial statement from his longtime friend and pastor Jeremiah Wright and his awkward assertion that small town Americans "cling" to their guns and religion out of bitterness. While there’s little direct evidence to show that those episodes held him down in Pennsylvania, he clearly did not make any inroads among those voters who might have taken them into account, voters the Democratic nominee will need in November.

One thing is increasingly clear - Democrats who’ve taken sides are becoming entrenched. According to CBS News exit polls, 62 percent of Clinton voters in Pennsylvania said they would not be satisfied with Obama as their nominee while 52 percent of his voters said they would be dissatisfied with her. More troublesome, 25 percent of her voters and 16 percent of his said they would vote for John McCain in the fall if their candidate is not in the race.

Going forward, Obama’s campaign is signaling that it will begin making the argument against McCain as much as continue the fight with Clinton. After a fairly solid thrashing in Pennsylvania, that might be a dangerous strategy. He will be forced to engage a re-energized Clinton in Indiana, the next make-or-break contest, and it’s likely to be at high volume if not negative.

So the battle of attrition continues, with each Democratic candidate wearing down the other and still nothing settled. ‘Round and round it goes. Where and how it ends, nobody still knows for sure.

[blkpresident]

Hillary-Steinem ''08?

America can do better than this. Wonder who they would tap as Secretary of Defense, Jane Fonda?

[sharncedar]

Yep, THOSE kind are all talk, you know, they say lots of words like "hope" and things but THOSE kind are all empty suits, they got there from Affirmtive Action, you know what I mean. Like Hillary and Bill say, THOSE kind can''t win in November, they talk pretty all right, they dance pretty, but THOSE kind aren''t ready to lead at 3 in the morning. They tap dance around the issues don''t THEY? THOSE kind have registered a lot of voters, that''s nice of them, but they can''t really expect to be nominated can they? Hillary better explain it to the super-delegates, THOSE kind can''t win the big states, they can;''t finish if you know what I mean, THOSE kind are not fighters, they are soft. If you know what Hillary and I mean.

[sharncedar]

oooh, those Scary Black Men, I''m real scared too because their johnsons might be bigger than mine ... I better support Hillary, I''m scared, they is Black all over, jes like a dark night out here in the sticks.

I heard them Scary Black Men said things, some thing I don''t like, well Hillary told me I should vote for someone like her, all dressed nice in her nice white robes

I don''t even know what those Scary Black Men want, they don''t even look like us, next they will want welfare or something. I''m voting for Hillary. She''s not an "empty suit" if you know what I mean, she isn''t "all talk" (like someone I won''t mention, you know THOSE kind are "all talk").

[sharncedar]

What does it even mean to be a Democrat ... here we have Hillary all suited up in her KKK hood, knocking back beer and talking about bombing Iran while she totes a big ol'' gun, hanging out in the back woods, talking ''bout her Bible upbringin'', talking Farrakhan and other Scary Black Men out in the sticks.

That''s .... uhm ... the George Bush voters. Is that the "new" Democratic party? Gee, who would have guessed.

[craigh9]

Only Hillary can take an expected win by 22% - turn it into a 10% win, and claim a HUGE victory. Last night changes nothing - she is still too far behind in pledged delegates and the tightening of the popular vote will reverse after North Carolina on 5/6.
Pennsylvania is overwhelmingly White, Older, Blue Collar, and Catholic - everything was set up for her to hit a grand slam homerun - she only managed a single with 1 RBI.
The only difficult pieve of all of this is those that support Hillary will be unbearable for 2 weeks, then they will be compeltely deflated on 5/6/08.
Enjoy it while you can - hard times are coming for the Clinton campaign.

[cordjones2]

Obama and his supporters live in an arrogant and unrealistic dreamworld! Obama is not omniscient, omnipotent,or om--anything else--he is fallible, just like all the rest of us poor shmucks who have to admit our shortcomings. You can point out all the stupid things you say Clinton is so guilty of all you want to, but most of us have the intelligence to see that you''re only describing Obama and yourselves! I think it''s getting about time for Obama and friends to realise he isn''t GOD!

You might better ask why, after all the negative campaigning, climbing on the warhorse of talk of "obliterating Iran", and having Bill Clinton stump for her, Senator Clinton could not do better than see her projections in PA cut by more than half. She did not break 10% with her margin of victory. It didn''t change the numbers, and the press only encouraged people to accept her story line, that this and future contests should change the result. If she weren''t there, people couldn''t vote for her. While she is there, she''s creating destruction.

[repdemapart]

dustbone -

HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR MORTGAGE ...

HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR GAS ....

HOPE WILL NOT CURE YOUR CANCER ...

HOPE WILL NOT MAKE YOU WIN IN NOVEMBER ...

NOBAMA IS GIVING Y''ALL FALSE-HOPES.

[repdemapart]

pepperwood2 -

HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR MORTGAGE ...

HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR GAS ....

HOPE WILL NOT CURE YOUR CANCER ...

HOPE WILL NOT MAKE YOU WIN IN NOVEMBER ...

NOBAMA IS GIVING Y''ALL FALSE-HOPES.

[dustbone]

Rep...

You think Hillary is going to overtake Obama in the popular vote? That''s highly unlikely. Even with Florida votes counted (even most Clinton insiders concede that you can''t count Michigan), before PA, Hillary was 400,000 votes behind Obama. So she closed that by half in PA -- so what? She needed to practically pull even, because Obama''s going to pull away to the tune of another 200,000 in North Caroline. The rest of the states figure to be either be (relatively) too small or too close to really close the gap. That''s why Hillary needed to deliver a 20+% whomping in PA, not merely a convincing 9% win, respectable though it may be. All it does is keeps her in a race she is destined to lose. Wait a couple days for all the hype to die down, and reality will set in. It''s lights out now in the Clinton camp. She''s blown it.

[pepperwood2]

You have to remember that Hillary did nothing to win in Penna, except to show up for the FUND RAISERS. It should come as little surprise that the Old Guard Rendell, Clinton polictics dominate the rather inflexible DEMO population of Penna. The Status Quo prejudice polictics is dominant.

I''ve grown up here in Penna. and sad to say that there is a rather intolerant side to the Demo Party to real change & acceptance that is needed. To the Rendell, Clinton crowd, they thrive on this common knowledge, and is little wonder that Hillary came into Pa. with a 30 point lead and expected to win by at least 25 points.

Senator Obama refused to give up on the People. With the mocking, cackling old show Clintons in the background as he gave his message of Hope, Change and the need for this Country to get past the negative polictics and get back to doing the work of the People. Yes, He Cares!

AS for Hillary, Wheeeeeee this is fun! I''m just warming up. $110,000,000 year is MY money. Show me MORE of YOUR money. I''m worth it! CACKLE CACKLE CACKLE.... Sooooo SAD!

[joecoolswat]

Obama says "I want change"..Bush said "thats all we need, another bum asking for change." (just a joke)

[repdemapart]

JoeCoolSwat-

IF EVER NOBAMA GETS THE NOMINATION AS THE PUDITS AND THE LEARNED WOULD LIKE IT - NOBAMA WILL NOT ONLY BE CREAMED - HE WILL BE SKINNED ALIVE !!!

BWA-HA-HA-HA !!!

[joecoolswat]

7 months of campaigning for the GOP, 60 days for the Dems. Gotta love watching them rip each other apart all the way up to the convention. McCain will cream Obama in the general election.

[repdemapart]

mocaIeo-

You are TOTALLY devoid of REALITY. But you have a great SPIN - but try a little harder. IT MIGHT WORK !

[repdemapart]

HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR MORTGAGE ...

HOPE WILL NOT PAY YOUR GAS ....

HOPE WILL NOT CURE YOUR CANCER ...

HOPE WILL NOT MAKE YOU WIN IN NOVEMBER ...

NOBAMA IS GIVING Y''ALL FALSE-HOPE ...

[repdemapart]

NOBAMA''s HOPE TALK EXPRESS.. LOST IT''S WHEEL !

BWA-HA-HA-HA !!!

[vastr-wcon]

A SPECTACULAR WIN FOR HILLARY!! And a crushing defeat and humiliation for hussein!

Millions of Dems are elated by this result, since the majority of Democrats simply do not want the party to make the same mistake twice by nominating another Kerry-like shallow, arrogant, platitude-spouting, gas-bag - who is so mentally deficient from extensive drug use he even has to plagiarize his hollow platitudes!.

The voters in Pennsylvania, like those in Arizona, are not swayed by the meaningless Hope-Change, Change-Hope, Hope-able Change and Change-able Hope BS of "God Da''mn America" hussein. Experience and competence matter.

The poor b-tards in the MSM are now desperately trying to save their favorite candidate after this massive defeat, but they are running out of excuses.

First, they set up New Hampshire as a "MUST WIN" for Hillary. Hillary won New Hampshire.

Then, they set up Texas as a "MUST WIN" for Hillary. Hillary won Texas.

Then they set-up Pennsylvania as a "MUST WIN BIG" for Hillary. Hillary won Pennsylvania BIG.

Hillary has proven that she is the ONLY Dem that can win crucial contests. She is the ONLY Dem that can make sure that senile, ill-tempered, AMNESTY-JOHN gets his much-needed retirement in November.

[mjvw2]

What a choice we have. A b_tch who is a lawyer married to a lawyer or a lawyer who is married to a b_tch who is a lawyer.

[sebastian27-2009]

I believe that this is the beginning of the end for the Democratic Party as we new it. The "Old Guard" Democrats ie Ted Kennedy and company will fight to the end, and to hell with the party, to keep a moderate from being elected again. They will not support Hilary if she is nominated.
There will be a new party of moderate Democrats come out of this debacle. In the old days this will have been settled at the convention, but the two sides have become too entrenced to be effective. Please welcome President McCain, a do-nothing president.