Why Clinton Won Pennsylvania

CBSNews.com Analysis: Results Show Electorate Divided On Education, Race, Income And Religion

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBS News political consultant Monika McDermott.

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Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary by hanging tough with her base supporters in a state in which they are plentiful, even managing to beat back strong Obama support from a sizable block of newly registered Democrats.

The biggest story of the evening, however, may be the polarized electorate that turned out to vote. Pennsylvania's Democratic primary results, while smaller than the lead Sen. Hillary Clinton once had over Sen. Barack Obama in the state, show an electorate consistently divided on factors like education, race and income and also newly divided along religious lines.

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Pennsylvania Results
Exit Poll Data

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Divisions

The Pennsylvania Democratic primary shared many of the same vote characteristics of other primary states this season - with Clinton winning her core base of union members, less educated and lower income voters and rural voters, and Obama winning voters with more education and income, and black voters.

What made Pennsylvania different, however, is the consistency of these traditional gaps as well as the appearance of some new divides. With intense media coverage of Obama's recent statements regarding small town voters, and a consistent characterization of him as an elitist both by the media and by the campaigns of Clinton and John McCain, these pre-existing social divides grew larger in this first contest since the story broke.

In the primary Clinton received 71 percent of the vote from white members of labor union households, leading Obama by a striking 43 points. In contrast, Clinton won a smaller proportion of the white non-union vote, still besting Obama by 57 percent to 43 percent. This union vote is in stark contrast to the union vote in Ohio, one of the most recent and similar contests. In Ohio Clinton received 67 percent of the white union vote, and 62 percent of white non-union vote. This demonstrates a more polarized electorate by union status in Pennsylvania than Ohio.

This pattern of division repeats itself among other groups that have been important in past contests. White Democratic voters making less than $50,000 a year supported Clinton with 66 percent, compared to 58 percent support from those making over $50,000 a year. Obama received 24 percent and 42 percent respectively.

There was a 19 point preference gap between the less educated and the more educated in Pennsylvania primary voting. Clinton won 75 percent of the vote from white Democrats with a high school diploma or less - three times Obama's vote among these voters - compared to 56 percent of those with more education.

While these traditional gaps were just as strong, if not more so, in Pennsylvania, they were not the only gaps to be found. Perhaps related to Obama's comments about small town voters and religion, Pennsylvania's voters demonstrated a clear religious gap in candidate preference.
Clinton did much better among Pennsylvania's religious white voter than did Obama, and than she did among the non-religious. Sixty-nine percent of white voters who attend religious services more than once a week supported Clinton, while 31 percent supported Obama. In sharp contrast, among those white voters who do not attend religious services, Obama received a 52 percent majority of the vote, compared to 48 percent for Clinton.

In addition to religiosity, religious affiliation also had a large impact on the Pennsylvania vote. In a white electorate that was 41 percent Catholic, Clinton carried Catholics with 71 percent of the vote. She won 75 percent of the vote of white Catholics who attend church weekly. Clinton won white Protestants as well, although with a much smaller margin - 59 percent to 41 percent for Obama.

Obama showed gains among the non-religious since Ohio. In Pennsylvania he won 61 percent of white agnostics (those with no religion), compared to only 42 percent in Ohio. Among those who do not attend religious services Obama won 40 percent of the vote in Ohio, but captured 52 percent today in the Keystone state. Here again Pennsylvania voters demonstrated a pattern of polarization in candidate choice.

Race was also as equally polarized as it has consistently been. Obama won 89 percent of the black Democratic primary vote.

New Voters

Part of Obama's ability to close the large lead Clinton initially had in Pennsylvania was a concerted voter registration effort - one which paid off for him. Among today's Pennsylvania Democratic voters 14 percent reported that they had newly registered as Democrats. Among these new Democratic voters Obama bested Clinton by 20 points - 59 percent to 39 percent.

These new Democratic voters fit a distinct profile - that of typical Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of this group are voters between the ages of 18 and 29. These young voters made up only nine percent of those already registered, and as Democrats. The new voters were also more likely to label themselves as independents. Thirty-six percent of the new voters called themselves independents, compared to only 11 percent of other voters. In addition, one quarter of these voters were from the Philadelphia suburbs, compared to 16 percent overall.

Looking to the Future

As the primary competition between Clinton and Obama continues, many pundits are speculating on the effect of the prolonged contest on the party's chance is November. And while up to now many have argued that the contest has not done lasting damage, voters in Pennsylvania certainly noted a nasty turn.

Four in ten Pennsylvania Democrats said that both candidates had attacked the other candidate unfairly during the campaign. In contrast, in Ohio only 29 percent of voters felt that way. In addition, another 25 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats feels that Clinton has attacked unfairly and seven percent feel Obama has. Only 23 percent of voters feel that neither attacked the other unfairly.

At the same time, however, the proportions of voters who would be satisfied with either candidate as the party's nominee remain at recent levels. Seventy-one percent say they would be satisfied with a Clinton nomination, and 64 percent would be satisfied with an Obama win.

In general election match-ups with John McCain, Obama's voters are the more accepting of either situation - 69 percent would support Clinton against McCain. In contrast, only 52 percent of Clinton's Pennsylvania supporters report they would support Obama against McCain in the general election. Again, Pennsylvania's voters represent the polarization, possibly increasing, that we have seen this primary season.

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Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

[seah5]

Clinton won because the people want her as their nominee

She is the Best Candidate.

[blackspirit3]

how does a black man rise from community organizer, to law professor at hardvard to civil rights attorney to state legistlator, then to the UNited States Senator - yet you dumb clowns think he is a Muslim and he a agent of arabs to harm america. either you foools watch too much tell-lie-vision (TV) or you are plain dumb, and should never be allowed to vote or handle heavy machinery.

[blackspirit3]

BLACK AMERICANS HAVE DIED ON EVERY BATTLE FIELD AMERICA HAS BEEN ON, AND OUR PATRIOTISM IS QUESTIONED. WHITE AMERICANS CAN CUSS POLICE OUT, BUT A BLACK MAN BETTER NOT, WHITE MEN CAN BURN THE FLAG, BUT BLACK MEN BETTER WEAR THE LAPEL, WHITE MEN CAN BLOW UP FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUILDINGS IN OKLAHOMA, THEIR IS NOT A HISTORY OF ONE BLACK MAN BLOWING UP ANYTHING IN AMERICA, YET OUR PATRIOTISM IS QUESTIONS? IF THATS NOT RACISM, THEN WHAT IS? THE SO CALLED WEATHER MEN WAS PARDONED BY BILL CLINTON - A PARDON IS AMERICA''S FORGIVENESS. WE FORGAVE THOSE WHITE PEOPLE WHO ATTEMPTED TO BLOW UP AMERICA BASES, YET WE QUESTION OBAMA PATRIOTISM BECAUSE HE ATTENDED A CHURCH? IF THIS IS NOT RACISM, THEN WHAT IS? WE WATCHED BILL CLINTON BASICALLY MOLEST AND RAPE WOMEN FOR OVER 40 YEARS, YET WHITE WOMEN DISTRUST OBAMA A MARRIED MAN WITH TWO DAUGHTERS HE WOULD DIE FOR? IS THATS NOT RACISM, THEN WHAT IS?

[taotxzen]

While the far right wingnuts are claiming Obama is going to (disarm you), here is proof that the Bush Gang is to fleecing you:

Peter DeFazio Nails Republicans On Oil
By: Nicole Belle

Rep. Peter DeFazio (D-OR04) railed against the Republican special interests that prevent any real progress from being made on getting control over skyrocketing fuel prices and huge profits being realized by oil companies while consumers struggle with high fuel costs.


Now, there%u2019s a few things we could do. Now, the president%u2019s a big free trader, right? He%u2019s trying to push us into more free trade agreements. They say they work great. He wants %u201Crules-based trade.%u201D Well, we%u2019re in the WTO, they have rules. The rules say you can not restrict the supply of a commodity simply to drive up the price. That%u2019s what OPEC%u2019s doing. Now five members of OPEC are in the WTO. Will this president %u2013 the oil man %u2013- the friend of the Saudis and the others %u2013 will he file a complaint in the World Trade Organization against OPEC? No. I wrote to him three years ago, asking him to do that. The answer was no. If the Saudis and the OPEC countries want to get together and collude to drive up the price of the oil, that%u2019s just fine with George Bush. He%u2019s all for free trade, and rules-based trade, except when the rules might hurt some of his buddies. And then, the oil industry just piggy backs on top of that.

(cont)

[taotxzen]

(cont)

The Gavel: The price for regular gasoline reached a record $3.53 per gallon today %u2013 23 percent more than this time last year and 140 percent more than when President Bush took office. The Democratic-led Congress has passed a number of key bills to reduce the burden of rising gas prices on Americans and make America less dependent on foreign oil %u2013 but the President has threatened to veto each one. House Democrats call on President Bush to support House-passed legislation such as the No Oil Producing and Exporting Cartels (NOPEC) Act, The Energy Price Gouging Act, and the Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Tax Act and bring real relief to America%u2019s families and businesses now.

[spoonerfineart]

She won the state because every Dog was in the Clinton''s Dog House

[nanging3]

OBAMA IS A MUSLIM TERRORIST AND HE PLANS TO DISARM AMERICA...
HE HAS DUAL CITIZENSHIP
HIS BOOK AUDACITY OF HOPE
HE HAS TITLED "JIHAD FROM JAKAR TO THE WHITEHOUSE"
IN INDONESIA..JIHAD !!

[nanging3]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs

OBAMAS PLAN TO DISARM YOU !!
AMERICA

COMING SOON WWW.EXPOSEOBAMA.COM ON A TV SET NEAR YOU !

[nanging3]

One Reason Hillary one..

Obamas plan to disarm America

OBAMA is standing in front of the camera himself for 52 seconds explaining how he will disarm the USA.

What we are talking about here IS NOT about politics and the differing
views concerning issues.....this is about the potential literal destruction of
this country by our enemies and our inability to defend ourselves against those
attacks.

This is a very short (52 seconds) video by Barak Obama in his own words
about how he plans to destroy our defense capabilities if elected. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl32Y7wDVDs

[ranger1948]

mike91953
If rush limpaw endorces McCain then that is one more reason not to vote for McCain. Limpaw is one of the worst people i know of to endorse anyone or anything. He is a bigoted big mouth.

[ranger1948]

elicatlover
Well said.

[ranger1948]

lindaredtail
I mayn not agree with all of your opinions but i believe that is why we serve our country so everyone has a right to their opinion and a right to express it. I am retired military, 100%disabled Vietnam vet, my oldest son was hurt on active duty with the rangers and is 100%disabled, my youngest daughter just returned from Iraq. My youngest son is getting ready to enlist for army rangers. I think i raised my children with the right values. We will fight to save our country.

[ranger1948]

lindaredtail
I have no problem with a true Muslim becoming our president. It is obama i do not trust. He has too much in his personal history to convince me he isn''t the right man for the job. I have a daughter who is a faithful Muslim and she has my total support of her religion. I have two sons who are catholic and one daughter who is baptist. I taught them to choose what was right for them spiritually.

[ranger1948]

vmcneal2
Maybe wright or obama haven''t done any lynchings or bombings personally, but their associates farakhan and the black panthers have

[ranger1948]

blackspirit3
You really need to leqarn how to spell or at least use spellcheck on your computer. I.E. While bill was out rapping her ?

[ranger1948]

gwetcentered
obama is more deportable. He has a better chance of surviving since *** floats

[ranger1948]

lindaredtail
LOL means laugh out loud

[ranger1948]

tawpdawg11
the democrats don''t have the top dog in the race either. I think it is time to disband the political parties and make the election accountable by popular vote.

[ranger1948]

bnalcspirit3
I think saying educated people are th ones voting for obama is an insult to the intelligent people of America. I am educated and no way in hell would i vote for obama for any position.

[ranger1948]

andersonk49
Good reply to whatithink.