Why Clinton Won Pennsylvania

CBSNews.com Analysis: Results Show Electorate Divided On Education, Race, Income And Religion

(CBS)  This analysis was written by CBS News political consultant Monika McDermott.

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Hillary Clinton won the Pennsylvania Democratic primary by hanging tough with her base supporters in a state in which they are plentiful, even managing to beat back strong Obama support from a sizable block of newly registered Democrats.

The biggest story of the evening, however, may be the polarized electorate that turned out to vote. Pennsylvania's Democratic primary results, while smaller than the lead Sen. Hillary Clinton once had over Sen. Barack Obama in the state, show an electorate consistently divided on factors like education, race and income and also newly divided along religious lines.

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Pennsylvania Results
Exit Poll Data

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Divisions

The Pennsylvania Democratic primary shared many of the same vote characteristics of other primary states this season - with Clinton winning her core base of union members, less educated and lower income voters and rural voters, and Obama winning voters with more education and income, and black voters.

What made Pennsylvania different, however, is the consistency of these traditional gaps as well as the appearance of some new divides. With intense media coverage of Obama's recent statements regarding small town voters, and a consistent characterization of him as an elitist both by the media and by the campaigns of Clinton and John McCain, these pre-existing social divides grew larger in this first contest since the story broke.

In the primary Clinton received 71 percent of the vote from white members of labor union households, leading Obama by a striking 43 points. In contrast, Clinton won a smaller proportion of the white non-union vote, still besting Obama by 57 percent to 43 percent. This union vote is in stark contrast to the union vote in Ohio, one of the most recent and similar contests. In Ohio Clinton received 67 percent of the white union vote, and 62 percent of white non-union vote. This demonstrates a more polarized electorate by union status in Pennsylvania than Ohio.

This pattern of division repeats itself among other groups that have been important in past contests. White Democratic voters making less than $50,000 a year supported Clinton with 66 percent, compared to 58 percent support from those making over $50,000 a year. Obama received 24 percent and 42 percent respectively.

There was a 19 point preference gap between the less educated and the more educated in Pennsylvania primary voting. Clinton won 75 percent of the vote from white Democrats with a high school diploma or less - three times Obama's vote among these voters - compared to 56 percent of those with more education.

While these traditional gaps were just as strong, if not more so, in Pennsylvania, they were not the only gaps to be found. Perhaps related to Obama's comments about small town voters and religion, Pennsylvania's voters demonstrated a clear religious gap in candidate preference.
Clinton did much better among Pennsylvania's religious white voter than did Obama, and than she did among the non-religious. Sixty-nine percent of white voters who attend religious services more than once a week supported Clinton, while 31 percent supported Obama. In sharp contrast, among those white voters who do not attend religious services, Obama received a 52 percent majority of the vote, compared to 48 percent for Clinton.

In addition to religiosity, religious affiliation also had a large impact on the Pennsylvania vote. In a white electorate that was 41 percent Catholic, Clinton carried Catholics with 71 percent of the vote. She won 75 percent of the vote of white Catholics who attend church weekly. Clinton won white Protestants as well, although with a much smaller margin - 59 percent to 41 percent for Obama.

Obama showed gains among the non-religious since Ohio. In Pennsylvania he won 61 percent of white agnostics (those with no religion), compared to only 42 percent in Ohio. Among those who do not attend religious services Obama won 40 percent of the vote in Ohio, but captured 52 percent today in the Keystone state. Here again Pennsylvania voters demonstrated a pattern of polarization in candidate choice.

Race was also as equally polarized as it has consistently been. Obama won 89 percent of the black Democratic primary vote.

New Voters

Part of Obama's ability to close the large lead Clinton initially had in Pennsylvania was a concerted voter registration effort - one which paid off for him. Among today's Pennsylvania Democratic voters 14 percent reported that they had newly registered as Democrats. Among these new Democratic voters Obama bested Clinton by 20 points - 59 percent to 39 percent.

These new Democratic voters fit a distinct profile - that of typical Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of this group are voters between the ages of 18 and 29. These young voters made up only nine percent of those already registered, and as Democrats. The new voters were also more likely to label themselves as independents. Thirty-six percent of the new voters called themselves independents, compared to only 11 percent of other voters. In addition, one quarter of these voters were from the Philadelphia suburbs, compared to 16 percent overall.

Looking to the Future

As the primary competition between Clinton and Obama continues, many pundits are speculating on the effect of the prolonged contest on the party's chance is November. And while up to now many have argued that the contest has not done lasting damage, voters in Pennsylvania certainly noted a nasty turn.

Four in ten Pennsylvania Democrats said that both candidates had attacked the other candidate unfairly during the campaign. In contrast, in Ohio only 29 percent of voters felt that way. In addition, another 25 percent of Pennsylvania Democrats feels that Clinton has attacked unfairly and seven percent feel Obama has. Only 23 percent of voters feel that neither attacked the other unfairly.

At the same time, however, the proportions of voters who would be satisfied with either candidate as the party's nominee remain at recent levels. Seventy-one percent say they would be satisfied with a Clinton nomination, and 64 percent would be satisfied with an Obama win.

In general election match-ups with John McCain, Obama's voters are the more accepting of either situation - 69 percent would support Clinton against McCain. In contrast, only 52 percent of Clinton's Pennsylvania supporters report they would support Obama against McCain in the general election. Again, Pennsylvania's voters represent the polarization, possibly increasing, that we have seen this primary season.

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Monika L. McDermott is assistant professor of political science at the University of Connecticut, where she teaches and conducts research on voting behavior and public opinion. Before joining the University of Connecticut, McDermott worked in election polling for CBS News and the Los Angeles Times. She holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of California, Los Angeles.

[kansas1946]

Anyone who is dumb enough to really think that Obama is an "elitist" is really probably to dumb to be voting. Let''s see. The black kid raised by a single mom from a working class family against a "Rodam" that was born with a silver spoon in her mouth.
I just think it is hysterical to call Obama "elitist."

[relee42]

Four points? Wow that was a real walker-over. Then add insult, by having some clueless talking-head trying to explain what really caused such a "huge" upset. That same person was probably predicting a Swill and thrill-Bill rout last month. Hmm!

[leighg1]

Hillary to Bill on southern working class:
"Screw ''''em," she told her husband. "You don''''t owe them a thing, Bill. They''''re doing nothing for you; you don''''t have to do anything for them."

google it to see more on the remark

Interesting vedio about Obama''''s early years. Enjoy please (make sure it entered as a single line...the link somehow always breaks into two lines once posted):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w519kGUAIhI

[greenfun]

Obama dumps millions in Pennsylvania and Clinton wins by double digits. Guess he just can''t pull off a big state.
The people of Pennsylvania chose SUBSTANCE over speeches.
YIIIPPPEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hhkeller]

Money can''t buy love. Obamas love of Bushes NCLB lost my vote and public schools are better without the threat of the NCLB.

[doctorfixit-2009]

White voters are sliced & diced a dozen ways.
Trailer trash voted Hillary overwhelmingly.
Then after all of that, the kicker -
89% of blacks voted Obama. No racism in this party, oh no.
Obama better behave himself or Hillary won''t make him VP in charge of making up cover stories for Bubba.

[reznahawks]

I find it funny, that Hillary was supposed to win by margins up to 26%, and pulled off a "tide turning" victory of %10 percent (which is respectiable).WAKE UP AND SMELL THE COFFEE. Hillary is through. You netted what, like 15 delegetes. See you in N.C., Obama will wipe your ''monumental'' gain clean and then some.

[doctorfixit-2009]

kansas1946 - ***Anyone who is dumb enough to really think that Obama is an "elitist" is really probably to dumb to be voting. Let''''s see. The black kid raised by a single mom from a working class family against a "Rodam" that was born with a silver spoon in her mouth. I just think it is hysterical to call Obama "elitist.***

Elitism has nothing to do with how much money you had growing up. Elitism is a superior attitude, with a feeling of entitlement to rule over others. Besides, Obama is in the top 1% of incomes. The Clintons are even higher. They think that because they are smart lawyers they are entitled to rule, and being lawyers gives them the right to lie constantly. They are low-class, money-grubbing grifters, con artists and snake-oil salesmen.

[truth-hurts]

Obama giving Hillary the finger...A new low in American politics.

http://www.correntewire.com/stay_classy_0

[amercitizen2]

I know that *** Cheney and a lot of other neo cons don''t have much use for polling. I''ve always found it to be the most accurate way of voicing our opinions as a group. Breaking down in very categorized ways the reasonings of groups as they are being questioned. These polls here show us that Sen. Barack Obama, no matter what he does he cannot convince a white man to vote for him. Even if his opponent is Hillary Clinton a feminist of the highest order. A Washington insider herself for many, many, years. A woman who''s own memoir shows you how full of it, she actually is. I wonder if those uneducated people even know who they''re voting for? I''ll answer. No!! They don''t know. And for that reason and that reason alone, I am absolutely sure we''ll be swearing in Sen. McCain real soon. And then lets all get ready for fewer jobs and more wars.

Thanks uneducated bumpkins,

-Remember you only have yourselves to blame.

[whitepicks2]

Perhaps now Hillary can get some more donations to pay off the $4.6 million she owes Mark Penn.

[pepperp1]

Perhaps now Hillary can get some more donations to pay off the $4.6 million she owes Mark Penn.


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Posted by whitepicks2 at 01:10 AM : Apr 23, 2008


Shouldnt be a problem 3 million and counting already came in tonight along wiht 800 new donors.....



funny haha

[bluewho2-2009]

greenfun:

the only substance, woefully, is the word "SUBSTANCE" in ur post.

[truth-hurts]

STEP DOWN OBAMA!!!

[rowdytexan2]

"...with Clinton winning her core base of union members, less educated and lower income voters and rural voters, and Obama winning voters with more education and income, and black voters."

Evidently these people didn''t even read the exit polls they are spouting off about!

Hillary got almost as many educated and high income votes as Obama!

Good God, when will people learn to tell the truth!

[popstom1]

Obama spent 35 million + spent 4 to 1 and still
No obama

[chuegevera]

Hillary won because 1)white voted for her 2)Pen is her ground so she was expected to win.

[chuegevera]

"""Obama spent 35 million + spent 4 to 1 and still
No obama"""
Monery deas not vote people do.

[guadalcanal3]

agog2...I agree!...Hillary Clinton for president!

[popstom1]

and they voted in Pa.

[greenfun]

Yeah, it must suck to lose yet another big state. Especially after dumping millions of your supporters hard earned money down the drain. It must be frustrating when people use real criteria like a solid record and experience as their guidepost. I guess we should all be so immature as to have not actually researched for ourselves the candidates voting records-it actually takes some time and effort. Or maybe we are so wealthy that is doesn''t matter if we allow ourselves to be inspired by someone who has perfected the fine art of speeches, but not put in the boring effort and time that actually gives someone the experience to be effective in Washington. Well, not in Pennsylvania-the smart people their have used wise and thoughtful criteria-and I congratulate them.

[rowdytexan2]

Hillary won because 1)white voted for her 2)Pen is her ground so she was expected to win.


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Posted by chuegevera at 02:03 AM : Apr 23, 2008

Yes, but she won another huge democratic state! Something Obama has yet to do.

[rowdytexan2]

Hillary won because 1)white voted for her 2)Pen is her ground so she was expected to win.


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Posted by chuegevera at 02:03 AM : Apr 23, 2008

Yet 95% of Pennsylvania''s black voters voted for Obama.

Do you not have a clue that that''s why our black population is called a MINORITY? There''s not as many of them!

[cruiser111-2009]

Hillary won because thousands of Republicans at the direction of Rush Limbaugh crossed over and voted for her. After all we had to do whatever is necessary to keep the battle going between her and Barack going. ALL THE WAY TO THE CONVENTION FLOOR! Yesssss it is working flawlessly!

[undermyboot]

The real reason Clinton won was that WOMEN voted for her 60 - 40 and women were 55% of the total voters. Why is this not even mentioned by this (female) author? If "Black people voting for a black candidate" is fair subject matter, then why not "women voting for a woman"?

Just another establishment author with establishment spin for the establishment candidate...

[cruiser111-2009]

By the way Barack actually expanded his delegate lead in this primary so I guess it is a hollow victory for queen Hillary.

[cruiser111-2009]

Vote Mcain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[truth-hurts]

92% BLACK RACISM

[tawpdawg11]

OPERATION CHAOS worked soooooooo sweeeeeeeeeeeet ! I''m about to pi$$ my pants ! We got away with it AGAIN ! Rush even picked the spread! What a genius! Talent on loan from GAWWWWWWWWD-D ! Now we concentrate on Indiana. I can''t wait. Rush has already started bringing pressure to bear on the SUPERS! McCAIN ''08 YES WE WILL !

[tawpdawg11]

Dems are puzzies. Get out the way weaklings!

[tawpdawg11]

Howz it feel to have yer lousiest candidate handed to ya courtesy of one damm fine American. Pay attention SUPERS, Rush gonna be talkin'' atcha now.

[tawpdawg11]

Where are ya, wus''s. In bed already? Stewin'' in Rush''s goo he made fer you. Is there a song in there somewhere?

[louthesz9]

What does this tell you? Blue-collar, rural, working-class whites who aren''t college graduates, who are stuck at the lower rung of the economic ladder, would rather vote for a white candidate than a black candidate. While the educated, upper-income, white-collar whites would rather vote for Obama than Hillary.

[grammawhamma]

Hillary won because the dirt Obama swept under the rug wasn''t discovered until just recently.

Go Obama Go!! Go Home with your tail between your legs.

[kaelinda]

Clinton has no business harassing Obama for his words about small town America - especially since she took them completely out of context.

Here''s what Obama actually said about small town Pennsylvania: "You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing''s replaced them. And they fell through the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. So it''s not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren''t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations."

[b-easy63]

Since Texas and Ohio, the statisticians said she needed to win each state for now on by 20 points to be a viable candidate. She has not done that. Even her campaign said she needed to win by 20 points...that is...until her 27 point lead started diminishing.

What the Dems are doing is ensuring NEITHER candidate will win in the fall. The reason? Not their base. It is the Independents and new voters. If Obama goes--many of them will not vote or will vote for McCain. Already over 56%of the Independents have said that under NO circumstances would they ever vote for Hillary. If you add to that the new voters who wanted to be in on something new but have no real interest in politics or the Dem party, the numbers drop off more then the 19% of Obama supporters who claim they will support McCain. I actually think that number will be a lot less from the Dem faithful but the fact is, Hillary ends up with more of a deficit than Obama--right now. By the time this is over--both may have a high deficit. The thing is, when Hillary and Obama start losing Independent support--it never has gone to Hillary, it has gone to McCain. Hillary is hated--for a number of reasons--and for the Indies--no Democratic superdelegate can get around that fact.

[chuegevera]

There is no big state or small state every state count as Hillary her self love to say. Why shouls Pen or NY decide for the entire country.

[chuegevera]

Hillary won because the dirt Obama swept under the rug wasn''''t discovered until just recently.

Go Obama Go!! Go Home with your tail between your legs.

.......................................

what did we learn more about Hillary? that she lies? or maybe not need to mention a routine.

[vote4thebest]

80% to 90% of the Blacks have no problem to vote for their candidate''s skin color, yet they or the pundits seem to cry out the ''race card'' against the rest of the voters. Why is it that these 80 and 90% of these Blacks are exempted from being called ''racists'' but the non-Blacks are being labeled racists if they criticize or don''t vote for Obama? This is racism at its best!

The 10% of the Blacks who have shown their independent thinking and courage are to be commended. They are the true leaders in this race.

[ramos937]

The Clinton haters are alive and well. No matter what she or Bill do, these folks will always hate them.

I believe that Obama really snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by doing one single action on the day before the PA election - he conceded.

The day before, he was saying in public that he did not have a chance to win but that he only wanted to come in close.
With that statement, he lost a lot of votes. He also lost a lot of supporters who were still expected to go out and canvas in his support. Imagine having to go block to block asking folks to vote for Obama when he had already conceded?
Terrible politics.

[abbe91]

"Interesting vedio about Obama''''''''s early years. Enjoy please (make sure it entered as a single line...the link somehow always breaks into two lines once posted):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w519kGUAIhI
Posted by leighg1 at 11:56 PM : Apr 22, 2008"

OMG ... scratching his cheek, already then ...

[abbe91]

"The 10% of the Blacks who have shown their independent thinking and courage are to be commended. They are the true leaders in this race.
Posted by vote4thebest at 04:04 AM : Apr 23, 2008"

As well as the white people who voted for Obama.

[abbe91]

"The 10% of the Blacks who have shown their independent thinking and courage are to be commended. They are the true leaders in this race.
Posted by vote4thebest at 04:04 AM : Apr 23, 2008"

As well as the white people who voted for Obama.

[abbe91]

Posted by b-easy63 at 03:42 AM : Apr 23, 2008

Correct. But there will still be plenty of time to show McCain for what he is.

[termtex01]

"Posted by b-easy63 at 03:42 AM : Apr 23, 2008

Correct. But there will still be plenty of time to show McCain for what he is.

Posted by abbe91 at 04:49 AM : Apr 23, 2008"

You mean for the liberal media to claim...

A. He isn''t eligible to be President because of the location of his birth.

B. He doesn''t have the experience needed to work with both parties of Congress.

C. He too old.

(A) That issue has already been decided in his favor. The laws, as written, allow him to run for and be elected President.

(B) He has reached across the aisle more than any Democratic contender for the White House in over 50 years.

(C) If that were the case, there are a lot of Congressmen who need to be fired right now because of age.

So, what else does the liberal media got, other than bashing Obama and Clinton?

Nothing that I can see.

[whatithink-2009]

vote4thebest,

How patronizing! That''s to assume that any black person who is voting for Obama is not independent. JFK received about 90% of the Catholic vote. Was something wrong with the Catholics who voted for him?

You are an idiot!

[abbe91]

"Nothing that I can see.
Posted by TheGateway1 at 05:17 AM : Apr 23, 2008"

Prepare the clue cards so maybe one day he will be able to learn about Chi''ites and Sunnis.

[nuffera]

Way to go Hill!!! I saw where Andrea Mitchell had you knocked out before the votes were counted! I love to see you prove these slimes wrong!!!

[whatithink-2009]

African Americans were LARGELY against the invasion of Iraq FROM THE BEGINNING!! This has been a big plus for Obama, especially since both Clinton and McCain approved the invasion.

[johngoodnews]

It''s pretty clear to me that the cocktail party liberal wing of the Democratic Party has made sure with its absolutely weird nomination process that the Democratic Party cannot win the presidency in the face of the most unpopular Republican presidency in history. Now that''s a feat of such breathtakingly inept behavior, that it begs credulity.