8 Questions About The Pennsylvania Primary

Washington Post: The Expectations, Lessons, And Potential Repercussions Of Today's Contest

(WASHINGTONPOST.COM)  This story was written by Dan Balz.

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What will it take to be declared the winner in Pennsylvania today?

1. Conventional wisdom has taken such a beating in this campaign that setting expectations for today's primary continues to confound the experts. The only thing everyone can agree on is that, given the makeup of Pennsylvania -- an older population with a significant blue-collar constituency and a sizable proportion of Roman Catholics -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton should win the popular vote. But as Democrat Matt Bennett put it, the candidates are like publicly-traded companies that need to hit an earnings target to lift their stock price.

But just what are the targets? Some say Clinton needs to win by 10 points -- which was her margin in Ohio last month. Others say eight points. Some say, given the amount of money Sen. Barack Obama is spending on television ads, anything over five points would be a respectable victory for Clinton. Staying within five points would give Obama the opportunity to assert that he overcame a state whose demographics tilted heavily to Clinton.

But the margin in the popular vote ultimately will be secondary to how Pennsylvania affects the battle for pledged delegates. Pennsylvania is the biggest remaining prize on the calendar, with 158 pledged delegates. Clinton badly needs to make up ground in the delegate fight and, given the way they're distributed, that could be difficult.

In the words of one Democratic strategist, the popular vote margin is a "feel-good barometer that may play out over a few days and longer if there is a big win, but then we will be on to the next contests. Ultimately, the second indicator [delegates] is more important and will have a longer effect because it is still the criteria we use to select a nominee."

Has the campaign weakened Obama or Clinton more for the general election?

2. Many Democrats argue that, when compared with where they stood at the start of the nomination battle in early 2007, Obama and Clinton have become stronger and more effective candidates. Clinton has demonstrated resilience, doggedness and grit in the face of continued adversity. Obama began as a totally untested candidate and has run a remarkably effective campaign that has generated passion and energy.

But as Pennsylvanians vote today, the candidates are showing the wear and tear of this long and grueling process. Clinton's negative ratings have risen dramatically over the past few months. She began with doubts about her credibility and trustworthiness, which have only intensified. In last week's Post-ABC News poll, her unfavorable rating was higher than it has ever been.

Obama also looks weaker than he did when he was running the table in late February with big victories in such places as Virginia, Wisconsin and some smaller-state caucuses. Since then he has been beset by one controversy after another and, while he handled some of them effectively -- his speech on race being the prime example -- there is no question that Republicans see him as more vulnerable than they did before.

A Democratic strategist summed up the candidates this way: "Either can win the general election, but anybody who thought Democrats would waltz into the White House this fall was sadly mistaken."

[fuzzybear9]

Hello Pennsylvania Voters and Welcome to CBS

I think the point here that should be well taken is that , we need candidates that are well known to the electorate.

not that Change and Reform can`t come from a New Kid on the Block,
But sometimes that strange, New, Kid might have alterior motives ?
so us Hicks here in Punkxatawny need to be careful
when a flashy suited Fellow roles into town promising `` Change ``
we need to ask what kind of Change ?
Pocket Change ? Quick Change ? Short Change ?

it appears that the polished Hawvard Elietist Candidate,
was a Quick Pick Pocket Change candidate.

and we have the Iowa Farmers to thank for all this hubbub.

sincerely still toating my Gun , Bear
Fuzzy

[pepperwood2]

You have to remember that Hillary did nothing to win in Penna, except to show up. It should come as little surprise that the Old Guard Rendell, Clinton polictics dominate the rather inflexible DEMO population of Penna. The Status Quo prejudice polictics is dominant.

I''''''''ve grown up with here in Penna. and sad to say that there is a rather intolerant side to the Demo Party to real change & acceptance that is needed. To the Rendell, Clinton crowd, they thrive on this common knowledge, and is little wonder that Hillary came into Pa. with a 30 point lead and expected to win by at least 25 points.

Senator Obama refused to give up on the People. With the mocking, cackling old show Clintons in the background he gave his message of Hope, Change and the need for this Country to get past the negative polictics and get back to doing the work of the People. Yes, He Cares!

AS for Hillary, Wheeeeeee this is fun! I''''''''m just warming up. 110,000,000 year is MY money. Show me more of YOUR money. CACKLE CACKLE CACKLE.... Sooooo SAD!

[blackspirit3]

SO HILLARY AND BILL WAS RIGHT - PENN IS FILLED WITH BUNCH OF DUMB, UNEDUCATED, NON COLLEGE GRADUATING, BROOM PUSHING, TOILET CLEANING, WHITE RACIST PEOPLE. SHE KNOWS HER HOMETOWN WELL.

[truth-hurts]

Stop tearing the Democratic Party apart Obama.

It''s time to step down.

[getcentered]

American is the greatest country on earth and we are ALL (every one of us!) blessed to live in!
Posted by RowdyTexan2


We are blessed to live in such a Democracy. Our country is vast and diverse in ideas. I think America is the most beautiful place in the world. I wouldn''t use the word "greatest", because greatness suggests perfection.

America the Beautiful.

[rowdytexan2]

You say America is the greatest country in the world and nobody has a right to complain about anything in it.

I say America is the greatest country in the world but it still has room to get better.


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Posted by whatithink at 07:41 PM : Apr 22, 2008

No Sir, why do you continue to put words in my mouth!

I said American is the greatest country on earth and we are ALL (every one of us!) blessed to live in!

[getcentered]

Aweee ....The Republican Fantasy World

Republican= a stunning lack of competency.
DOES Being Republican MEAN ANYTHING ANYMORE?

Small government, NO they don''t know how to do that, why because its not possible. Just like a "victory" Iraq, Republicans prefer NO government at all.

7 in 10 Americans can now easily explain to another the failures of the last 8 years or Neo-con/Republican DOMINATED US foreign policy. We LINCHED the leader of IRAQ which HAD schools for its citizens, a government in place, power and water for the people and a stable economy, and for what? OIL; which has become more expensive in the last 7 years? How do the Republicans treat our military? How much of it are the Republicans going to allow slip into the hands of the private sector where accountability and allegiance to OUR country go out the window?

Please, someone tell me what it means today to be a Republican. Pro hate or pro-anger? YOU CAN NOT LEAD A COUNTRY IF YOU DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PICK YOUR BATTLES!! Republican, neo-con, conservative, or whatever you want to call them is too old and angry to understand our country and the world as it is today.

Hillary, Obama, or both, I don%u2019t care, the Democrats get my vote.

[truth-hurts]

****92% BLACK RACISM****

The first time and the last time....talk
about blowing it.

[truth-hurts]

****92% BLACK RACISM****

[alanrobisch]

In comparison to race baiting hate, and total incompetence to get a *** piece of legislation passed in 10 years, yes!!!!



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Posted by RowdyTexan2 at 07:05 PM : Apr 22, 2008
+ report abuse
you are crazy if anyone tried to attack someone because of race was clinton trying to infer that obama was winning solely because of his race. You IMHO are a bigot who masquerades behind a wide array of bogus attacks to explain why you don''t like Obama. He isn''t perfect and I''m not going to vote for him but the last thing we need is another 8 yrs of the corrupt clinton''s in office.

[whatithink-2009]

RowdyTexan2,

This is our difference in philosophy.

You say America is the greatest country in the world and nobody has a right to complain about anything in it.

I say America is the greatest country in the world but it still has room to get better.

[whatithink-2009]

"And I will never vote for a man who''''s told more lies than Bush/Cheney put together! And he''''s just getting started!
Posted by RowdyTexan2"

Is this one of your facts that nobody should question without being accused of race baiting?

[rowdytexan2]

Now you guys go vote your choice! America is the greatest country on earth and we are ALL blessed to live in it!

And I intend to vote my choice!

[rowdytexan2]

Here we go with your confusion! Rev. Wright was not condeming a race, he was also stating facts. These facts are even more PROVABLE than your facts. Your facts (like what Ferraro has said) are opinions. Also, he was referring to aspects of the U.S. government (actual things that happened throughout history) and not an entire race. The problem is many people like yourself think you are a pivotable part of the U.S. government. That''''s why when we invade Iraq, you thought it meant YOUR gas would decrease. You are in the same boat as everyone else...regardless of color.


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Posted by whatithink at 07:27 PM : Apr 22, 2008

I''m not confused at all about what Rev. Wright said! It was clear as a freaking bell!

And I will never vote for a man who''s told more lies than Bush/Cheney put together! And he''s just getting started!

Nor will I vote for a man who says Old Glory is a symbol of opppresion, and whose every close associate, friend and mentor is a whack job anti-American!

[whatithink-2009]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
RvMbeVQj6Lw

[whatithink-2009]

RowdyTexan2,

Here we go with your confusion! Rev. Wright was not condeming a race, he was also stating facts. These facts are even more PROVABLE than your facts. Your facts (like what Ferraro has said) are opinions. Also, he was referring to aspects of the U.S. government (actual things that happened throughout history) and not an entire race. The problem is many people like yourself think you are a pivotable part of the U.S. government. That''s why when we invade Iraq, you thought it meant YOUR gas would decrease. You are in the same boat as everyone else...regardless of color.

[rowdytexan2]

Posted by getcentered at 07:20 PM : Apr 22, 2008

And that''s where you''re dead wrong! Mr. Obama discredited himself with his own lies!

The first of which is that he is above politics as usual when he''s been a dirty politician since day one!

[whatithink-2009]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=RvMbeVQj6Lw

Get rid of the SOUNDBITS!

[rowdytexan2]

RowdyTexan2,

What does Obama have to do with this? These were comments coming from other people. Also, why the double-standard?

Why is it that when somebody says something about black people, you think these are obvious truths and justifable.

Yet when somebody says something about small town America or the comments that Rev. Wright made, these are blasphemous?


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Posted by whatithink at 07:17 PM : Apr 22, 2008

Because they weren''t condemning his race! The were stating facts!

And because Obama puts Rev. Wright''s teachings in his books and markets it, supporting his separatist teachings.

Because when he was speaking to his elitest sucker campaign contributors he was inferring that people don''t have enough sense to see past guns and religion, and inferring that of course, he does!

[getcentered]

Stupid Americans....we are "seek and yee shall find" when we are looking for a reason to discredit someone, but when we know there is a reason to discredit someone we like, we put the blinders on.........go figure..........

Americans think ID is science......whew.......Guess the GOP doesn''t want anyone to know the facts they just want you to know they are "right".

With 8 years of failure by conservatives and you have a cocktail for a beatdown. How is John McCain going to inspire the voter turnout for his party? His great speeches? Conservative talk radio? His flip-flop talk express bus overstuffed with Lobbyists? We all love to engage in punditry but the facts are the facts. Repubs do not have the votes to win. Outside of a total collapse (And I mean TOTAL colapse, not merely a split of the electorate)the Dem party they can offer up a broccoli f-art in a jar and still gain the White House. What planet are you conservatives living on? Your Reagan Democrat pink cloud from 20+ years ago?