April 22, 2008
8 Questions About The Pennsylvania Primary
Washington Post: The Expectations, Lessons, And Potential Repercussions Of Today's Contest
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Obama: Clinton Favored To Win
Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama speaks with Harry Smith about the upcoming primary election in Pennsylvania, as he vies for votes against opponent Hillary Clinton.
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Hillary Clinton On Pa. Primary
Harry Smith speaks with Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton about the critical primary election in Pennsylvania, which will pit her against top rival Barack Obama.
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A Pennsylvania Preview
As the Pennsylvania primary draws near, many are wondering who will win the democratic nomination. David Mark of Politico weighs in.
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Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., greets supporters as he arrives at a town hall-style meeting in McKeesport, Pa., Monday, April 21, 2008. (AP)
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Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., addresses the crowd during a campaign stop at the Zembo Event Center, Monday, April 21, 2008, in Harrisburg, Pa. (AP)
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Photo Essay
Hillary Clinton
A look at a life and career full of firsts.
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Photo Essay
Barack Obama
A look at the life and meteoric rise of the president-elect.
What will it take to be declared the winner in Pennsylvania today?
1. Conventional wisdom has taken such a beating in this campaign that setting expectations for today's primary continues to confound the experts. The only thing everyone can agree on is that, given the makeup of Pennsylvania -- an older population with a significant blue-collar constituency and a sizable proportion of Roman Catholics -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton should win the popular vote. But as Democrat Matt Bennett put it, the candidates are like publicly-traded companies that need to hit an earnings target to lift their stock price.
But just what are the targets? Some say Clinton needs to win by 10 points -- which was her margin in Ohio last month. Others say eight points. Some say, given the amount of money Sen. Barack Obama is spending on television ads, anything over five points would be a respectable victory for Clinton. Staying within five points would give Obama the opportunity to assert that he overcame a state whose demographics tilted heavily to Clinton.
But the margin in the popular vote ultimately will be secondary to how Pennsylvania affects the battle for pledged delegates. Pennsylvania is the biggest remaining prize on the calendar, with 158 pledged delegates. Clinton badly needs to make up ground in the delegate fight and, given the way they're distributed, that could be difficult.
In the words of one Democratic strategist, the popular vote margin is a "feel-good barometer that may play out over a few days and longer if there is a big win, but then we will be on to the next contests. Ultimately, the second indicator [delegates] is more important and will have a longer effect because it is still the criteria we use to select a nominee."
Has the campaign weakened Obama or Clinton more for the general election?
2. Many Democrats argue that, when compared with where they stood at the start of the nomination battle in early 2007, Obama and Clinton have become stronger and more effective candidates. Clinton has demonstrated resilience, doggedness and grit in the face of continued adversity. Obama began as a totally untested candidate and has run a remarkably effective campaign that has generated passion and energy.
But as Pennsylvanians vote today, the candidates are showing the wear and tear of this long and grueling process. Clinton's negative ratings have risen dramatically over the past few months. She began with doubts about her credibility and trustworthiness, which have only intensified. In last week's Post-ABC News poll, her unfavorable rating was higher than it has ever been.
Obama also looks weaker than he did when he was running the table in late February with big victories in such places as Virginia, Wisconsin and some smaller-state caucuses. Since then he has been beset by one controversy after another and, while he handled some of them effectively -- his speech on race being the prime example -- there is no question that Republicans see him as more vulnerable than they did before.
A Democratic strategist summed up the candidates this way: "Either can win the general election, but anybody who thought Democrats would waltz into the White House this fall was sadly mistaken."
By Dan Balz
© 2008 The Washington Post Company





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See all 284 CommentsThat''s not it . . . when none of the candidates fail to hit the mark with voters, ppl will tend to gravitate towards the candidate most like them. And usually that means race, gender, age, and to a lesser extent life experiences. Blacks prefer Obama, white women prefer Hillary, and white men prefer McCain.
So just by virtue of the numbers, the burden is on Barack more than any other candidate to hit the mark.
Being against the war, and the Democratic platform which is antithetical to ''let them eat cake'' helps, but really making the case that we''re going to get from where we are to a place of greater peace and prosperity would be even better . . .
I hear what you''re saying but bear in mind that as Chinese and Indian workers become more prosperous they are demanding more pay and benefits and those rapidly developing economies are beginning to experience their own inflationary pressures.
The pay disadvantage for American workers is shrinking but the advantage in productivity and quality from American workmanship is not shrinking.
There is hope for the future of the American workforce if American management can get it''s *** together.
We do need other energy alternatives, but corporations need money to do research and if their taxes increase, do you think they are going to increase their research. Plus, if you raise taxes they are going to leave the country to get less environmental regulation, lower employee cost and less taxes. When they leave everyone will be complaining about no jobs.
Dems own policies are causing the very problems they complain about. You can''t have your cake and eat it too.
Rain sleet or snow Hillary is after the dough.
Smears, lies, untruths out her mouth sprout
the most delegates, states and popular vote, Obama has won without doubt.
The nation has spoken and we prefer Obama, So Hillary get out.
Do you know the difference between Hillary and Obama?
Hillary never makes the same mistake twice.
Obama never makes the mistake, because he learns from Hillary!
Hillary= Smart, capable Obama= Wise man
Obama 08
By Larry Johnson No Quarter Blog
Barack Obama%u2019s supporters, fearing a blowout in Pennsylvania, are already %u201Cpreparing the battlefield%u201D for the spin war to come tonight. As Susan noted so brilliantly yesterday, the root of the racism that permeates Barack%u2019s campaign resides in fear. A Hillary victory in Pennsylvania today will stoke their fears. They will attribute Barack%u2019s poor showing to racism. You know, %u201Cwhite Americans don%u2019t want to vote for a black man.%u201D
What Barry Obama and his acolytes don%u2019t understand is that today most Americans don%u2019t give a *** about how much melanin you have. The days of Jim Crow are gone. The days of putting people with dark skin at the back of the bus are gone. It is not the norm. It was in the sixties, but the courage of Martin Luther King and other black leaders coupled with the action of white leaders, such as Lyndon Johnson and the Civil Rights Act, helped us start turning a corner on race relations.
Those of us who are over fifty can remember a time when it was unusual to have a black man or woman serve in public office. Blacks weren%u2019t mayors, governors, or senators. But no longer. We don%u2019t just celebrate black entertainers and black athletes. Dr. King%u2019s dream is becoming fact. But Barack and his campaign have tried, with some success, to play the victim card.
Please recall that when ever you read Wapo and Newsweek they are the same media company that LIED about our solider at GB flushing the Muslim holy work down toilets and caused violence in Afghanistan. That editor now works for GE at the NBC MSNBC Obama network, Why dose GE leadership team love America as much as we do O don%u2019t buy their products any more and I canceled my sub to Newsweek%u2026..
Always ask your self what is their Agenda why do they poo pooh Obamas extremist ties...and lack of a credible resume all the while claiming his is positive when he and his campaign slander, worse then any republican, his competition with vicious personal attacks
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/16/AR2005051601262.html
Backwards and in high heels
I%u2019ve been watching politics since 1972. And this is the first campaign I%u2019ve ever seen where winning wasn%u2019t enough. I%u2019m using, of course, the quaintly old-fashioned definition of winning, which means %u201Cgetting more votes than your opponent.%u201D
The new-fashioned definition of winning, as applied exclusively to Hillary Clinton, means something like %u201Cgetting n more votes than Obama, ...the ***** of the media/Blogger Boyz in order to make sure that Barry is never seen to be losing.%u201D
This morning the LA Times did its bit with an article helpfully entitled, %u201CWhat to look for in the Pennsylvania primary.%u201D (A pony?) Bottom line: unless Hillary wins by at least 10%, she will have lost!
How did they come up with 10%? It%u2019s simply the biggest number they think they can get away with. In the past n for Pennsylvania has been much higher %u2014 I%u2019ve seen 20, 30% bandied about %u2014 ..knows Barry%u2019s spending something like a quadrillion dollars a day in campaign ads. The ***-extractors have got to at least give a nod in that direction in order to maintain credibility with the other ***-extractors. So now we%u2019re down to 10%.
The Obama campaign/mainstream media/Blogger Boyz consortium has been spinning this kind of nonsense for so many months now that it%u2019s started to seem normal. But it%u2019s not normal.
A 1969 charge by a Eileen Wellstone, said Clinton assaulted her after she met him at a pub near the Oxford University campus where the future President was a student.
In 1972, a 22-year-old woman told campus police at Yale University that she was sexually assaulted by Clinton, who was a law student at the college.
In 1974, a female student at the University of Arkansas complained that then-law professor Bill Clinton groped her and forced his hand inside her blouse
Broaddrick, a volunteer in Clinton''s attorney general campaign, said he raped her in 1978;
From 1978-1980, Arkansas State troopers assigned to protect the governor reported seven complaints from women who said Clinton forced, or attempted to force, himself on them sexually.
Elizabeth Ward, the Miss Arkansas who won the Miss America crown in 1982, told friends she was forced by Clinton to have *** with him shortly after she won her state crown.
Paula Corbin, an Arkansas state worker, filed a sexual harassment case against Clinton the then-governor exposed himself and demanded oral ***.
Sandra Allen James, President Clinton invited her to his hotel room during a political trip to the nation''s capital in 1991, pinned her against the wall and stuck his hand up her dress.
Kathleen Willey, a White House volunteer, reported that Clinton grabbed her, fondled her breast and pressed her hand against his genitals during an Oval Office meeting in November, 1993.
The Best Days of America are now.
We will work tirelesly to fulfill the noble creed of the United States of A. To a time where the President has your welfare in mind and answerable to the people. Right now the American citizen has an insignificant voice on policy. Change that!
Why be cynical. allow the belief that if we all unite to make America better for us all.
Just imagine
It is a beautiful thought
I believe it is possible with Obama
We will work tirelesly to fulfill the noble creed of the United States of A. To a time where the President has your welfare in mind and answerable to the people. Right now the American citizen has an insignificant voice on policy. Change that!
Why be cynical. allow the belief that if we all unite to make America better for us all.
Just imagine
It is a beautiful thought
I believe it is possible with Obama
Posted by jld1959
I''m sure these lyrics come from a John Lennon song. With a reputation for stating "Prsent" on votes and never once working with another Senator on any bi-partisan issue in his wee 3 years as a virtual unknown, this guy is going to be the great uniter. Yeah. Okay. About the only thing he''s going to unite is his undying sympathy for racists, bigots and terrorists.
I''d take eitehr Obama or Clinton over more failed ''Bush'' policies, which is what you''d get with McCain!
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Get over it!! Obama is weak and should go back to baking pot brownies for Michelle!! Maybe if she lets him, he could be president of the local PTA!!
NOBAMA 08,...He is simply too weak!!
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I''d take Miss Arkansas over Larry Sinclair any day!!
Hillary mismanaged a campign from a 30 point lead to certain defeat. She''s squandered a huge superdelegate lead and squandered millions of dollars. She''s turned the Democratic Party into a hornet''s nest of discontent and bickering over immaterial issues.
Pennsylvania can spare us any more of this bug smushed on our windshield. Hit the wipers once and let us focus on how much better off we''ll be with Obama than with McCain. That''s what matters. Hillary had her chance and she blew it big time.
You miss the point. It''s not about the man Obama, but the ideas of Americans long dead that are reawakened to finally get back on the road towards our destiny.
Feel the power to say as a citizen I want to participate in the endeavor to give America back it''s voice and rightousness.
Change you shoud believe in!!!
Obama 08
Maybe Michelle will LET Barack be president of the local PTA?! That''s as close as he will get!!
NOBAMA 08,...NO WHINING!!
Posted by realpatriot1
Great points realpatriot! Wow, am I sure sour and pessimistic before the coffee''s fully kicked in LOL.
You know what Barack had an obscure little idea buried in his policy positions on his website way back in October - it''s probably still there - anyway, his big, out of the box idea was for Government to take on more of a venture capitalist approach when it comes to the economy, prosperity, stimulus, and policy. So instead of having limited regulation and bailouts after the fact like the GOP propose, he''d instead have targeted oversight and regulation, combined with analysis of market trends and aggressive targeted investment in industries with great sustainable growth potential. Green jobs would be just ONE example of that.
Like, I guess yeah China and India''s labor advantages''ll even out eventually, but until then we can prosper through first entry into emerging markets and continuous innovation. We''ll start with green jobs, and when the Chinese knock-off our ideas, we''ll come up with something else!
Yes we can! Dems 08, the Repubs say let them eat cake!
Do you see what cynicism does to people?
If you hope for something better you''re naive but if you continue to support the same people who brought us to this point you''re being real.
It''s a crcok promoted by brainwashed people who''ve been conditioned to not expect or demand any better.
I''d rather go down in flames fighting for something better that never materializes than accept defeat like these fools. At least with soemone committed to change there''s a chance;with the same old tried and true there''s zero chance od anything ever getting better.
Good post!
That sort of a deal (?) I think that''s what ppl are waiting for rather than the whiskey and beer, Scranton granpa, Altoona bowling, Bosnian snipers, SF ''bitter'' quips, etc (?)
John McCain is a man of impeccable integrity and patriotism. While I disagree with his foreign policies; I admire his steadfast adherence to his convictions. He is a man of principals.
Either one would be a far superior choice to Clinton, who represents none of the above.
There''s quite a few people on this board that I would describe as sour and pessimistic, you are jsut about the last one I would describe that way! Actually, you''ve brought me out of a sour mood more than once with your optimism.
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Get back to reality!! Obama will NEVER win the general election,...he is weak and flawed!! Maybe Michelle will let him run for PTA president?
Bobby Kennedy
Posted by OBAMASGRANNY"
- So you are saying Bush is strong and unflawed, since he was elected twice?
Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome.
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I didn''t say anything about Bush, he is an idiot. Obama is the one who is running for president not Bush. We do not need to go from George Bush to Curious George.
Let''s all get back to reality...all these candidates are weak and flawed. all candidates before them who''ve gone on to be elected were considered weak and flawed.
None of these candidates is more weak or flawed than Clinton, Carter,Reagan, Bush, Nixon, or Truman, just to name a few.
Posted by ARealist
Dems need to make a point of aggresively highlighting their triangulated position of maintaining heavy tax breaks for investments into research. I think both Hillary and Barack support this.
ARealist, I guess the GOP idea is that if we could get rid of all the illegals, then wages would go up and ppl would want to go back to those jobs (or something like that?). What I wonder is how do you know you can trust McCain to have your back? Because for years he''s taken one position, and now he''s pledging to do something else, but as a maverick does he seem to Conservatives to be somebody who''s going to do what he says he''ll do to you all?
And even assuming he does crack down on immigration, given the GOP stance on free trade, wouldn''t businesses then pack up and follow the illegals home to Mexico so that the higher wages won''t hurt their profit margin?
So what exactly is the GOP plan for creating jobs? Is it just free market forces like we''ve had the last 8 years?
Posted by realpatriot1
Ah ha ha - that''s why I hang out at these boards! Lots of give and take :)
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True, they are all flawed but if Obama couldn''t confront his own Pastor after 20 years, what kind of change do you really think he is capable of? He is a whiney little girly-man and the USD will be viewed as weak if he is elected.
You IMPLIED that anyone who wins a national election must be STRONG and UNFLAWED. If you think Bush is weak and flawed, then you contradict yourself.
Posted by krenz4
LOL
You didn''t get the memo that racism is dead? It was sent right after all those southerners left the democratic party because of the civil rights movement.
Are you saying that the oil comapnies raking in record profits need a goverment bailout to fund "research".
Get a grip. Green technology already exists, mostly in Europe and Israel.
That''s not to say that there isn''t enough blame to go around for both parties and I do agree with you that the Democrats have been part of the problem. One of the problems I do have with the Clinton years is that we didn''t adequately address alternative energy when the economy and investment climate was better.
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No I just pointed out that Obama IS flawed,...it doesn''t mean someone who is flawed cannot win the presidency,...but Obama is too weak to get elected. The general election will prove this to be true,...if he and his supporters are whining about the last debate,...WOW!! you aint seen nothin yet!!
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