Newly Registered Likely To Support Obama

The New Republic: Voters Have Potential To Dramatically Change Pennsylvania Primary Results

(The New Republic)  This column was written by Marin Cogan.

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Amidst all the statistics clamoring for attention during the last six weeks of 24/7 Pennsylvania primary coverage, there's one key number that hasn't gotten the attention it deserves: 306,918. That's the number of new Democrats added to the voter rolls in Pennsylvania between January 1 and the voter registration deadline on March 24. 146,166 first-time voters joined the party and 160,752 switched their registration from Republican or Independent to Democrat. (A mere 39,019 first-time voters joined the Republicans.) The new Democrats have pushed the party's total past the four million mark - a historic first for any party in the state's history. Those voters have the potential to change the results from Pennsylvania dramatically - both tomorrow, and in the general election in November.

At this point, any prediction about which candidate the new Democrats will support in the primary (which is closed; only registered Democrats can participate) is circumstantial. As a group, there's no polling data of their preferences, and newly registered voters aren't identified as such in any statewide poll. But evidence strongly suggests that most of the newly registered voters will support Barack Obama. Both campaigns led efforts to draw in supporters. The Hillary Clinton campaign dispatched about 200 volunteers to solicit the state's already registered Democrats, but Obama's campaign was more aggressive in targeting both unregistered Pennsylvanians and the Republican swing voters that he's had success picking off in other primaries.

The highest concentration of newly registered Democrats is in Philadelphia and its surrounding counties - Montgomery, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Lehigh, and Berks - an area that has become increasingly important in determining the state's elections in recent years. Those counties' registrants make up about half of the 300,000 new Democrats. Though there's no saying for certain just where those voters will go, the region is fertile ground for Obama - Philadelphia is home to a large African American electorate and the fast-growing suburbs, though less diverse, are experiencing a surge in affluent, college-educated voters. "They tend to be fiscally conservative but socially moderate," explained G. Terry Madonna, professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College. "They're not much enamored of unions, but they're pro-choice and they're relatively tolerant of diversity and they tend to be concerned about taxes." Both Madonna and Jim Hoefler, a professor of political science at Dickinson College, likened the crossover voters to "Rendell Republicans"--the 19,000 Republican voters who switched parties to help Governor Ed Rendell defeat Casey in their 2002 gubernatorial primary battle. And the fact that most of the new Democrats are coming from Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs offsets the reports from more conservative mid-state counties that voters might be switching as a result of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos," in which his "Dittoheads" register as Democrats to mess with the primary results. In those counties - Limbaugh country - the number of new Democrats is markedly lower.

And despite reports downplaying the likelihood that Obama can count on overwhelming support from college campuses, he's likely to get a significant boost there, too. The state has more than 680,000 students, most of whom come from in-state. Madonna noted that a record number of students signed up through one of the several voter registration efforts on college campuses across the state, an observation that fits well with the data: In addition to Philadelphia and its neighbors, other counties with the highest number of newly registered Democrats are Allegheny (home to the University of Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon, Duquesne, and several other post-secondary institutions) and Luzerne (home to two Penn State satellite campuses, Wilkes University, and three other colleges).

Madonna cautioned that it would be difficult to estimate how many voters will show up on primary day - the last competitive Democratic primary in Pennsylvania was Mondale-Hart - but if half of the state's 4.1 million Democrats vote in the primary, that would be in line with the kind of massive turnout seen in primaries thus far. And the new Democrats, seven percent of the state's total, can be expected to vote in higher numbers than people who didn't make the effort to register in the last few months. When I asked Madonna and Hoefler how many of the newly registered voters would go for Obama, both gave a rough hypothetical that has been floating around the state: 80 percent. The new voters won't be enough to overcome Hillary's strong lead, nor can Obama simply replicate Rendell's strategy from 2002 - he'd have to swing the precincts around Philadelphia dramatically to pull off that kind of victory, and he hasn't spent years as the city's popular mayor. But if he can keep the race within single digits, his campaign's strategy of targeting new voters will be considered a success. On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported, "Anything less than a double-digit victory could ... spark a flow of superdelegates to [Obama's] side." If Clinton fails to beat that margin, the new Democrats can be considered critical to Obama's relative success. "I think this is a very shrewd and important calculation on the part of the Obama people to pick up a couple of percentage points among these voters," said Madonna.

Still, the recent "bitter" controversy emphasizes the uphill battle Obama continues to face - his remarks can't have gone over well in a fiercely religious state. As significant as the minority and college-educated white voting blocs have become over recent years, the white working-class demographic still makes up 49 percent of the state's population.

But looking beyond the primary, Pennsylvania's new Democrats are the latest manifestation of a shift in the state's demographics that make it look more promising for the party each year. A recent study shows the populations of white working-class voters and voters over 65 shrinking. Meanwhile, Philadelphia and its suburbs are continuing the growth spurt that has been bringing in more minorities and college-educated voters - the southeast corridor of the state now closely resembles the rest of the metropolitan northeast. Large margins of victory in the southeastern part of the state and in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have helped Democrats win the last four presidential elections. It isn't often mentioned, but John Kerry actually fared better in Pennsylvania with white working class voters in 2004 than he did on the national average. Today, the state has over a million more Democrats than Republicans. A few of them will surely vote for John McCain, no matter who the Democrats nominate, but he or she will still have an even stronger support base for the nominee than there has been in recent presidential elections - which suggests that the Clinton strategy of claiming Obama can't win big states is unlikely to apply to Pennsylvania.

[blackspirit3]

Hillary is betting on white racism to win. Is that a win? Hoping that White America will reject a candidate on racial terms. We all know had Obama ever lied about being shot at by a gang on the streets of Chicago he would be thrown out of the race. Hillary is allowed to remain in the race while the media create stories to beat Obama with, to say a man who just finish paying off his student loans is an elitist is retarded at best.

Obama went to college and received a Law Degree because he didn%u2019t know enough to help the churches and people of his community with just having a 4 year Degree. How is that elitist, who goes to college to become a lawyer to help poor communities? Not Hillary, she went to Walmart. Not Bill he went to Canada and rallied against the war.

[gaiaschild-2009]

Oh please please Pennsylvania, show us the future.

[Razzl]

The talking heads in the press continue to posit their erroneous talking points about how Obama has to show he can win big states, or that McCain is somehow gaining support during the Democratic campaign, but objective numbers--like today''s massive turnout despite the "negative" campaign and Obama''s contuing massive fundraising success--don''t support the idea that McCain can even come close to funding a national campaign against him, or that Obama wouldn''t win in states where Hillary beat him in the primaries. The press is doing its best to make ugly a campaign the would not have been that way without their imperceptive fixation on "gotcha" politics...

[taihunter]

Please PA put Hillary out to pasture.
I would say same the same if it were the other way around, but its not. I hope this doesnt drag on till May 20th when I can finally vote.
Lets provide a united front against the true enemy - The Neo-Con Monsters supporting McCain, War, Economic problems, and Americas lagging behind the rest of the civilized world in progressive solutions.

[ranger1948]

mocaleo
That is what they were saying before she won PA.

[ranger1948]

blackspirit3
Obama did not grow up in a poor community so he has no realization of how the poor black communities live. He has lied about everythng. I think thwe truth has come out about him and where he stands. We do not need a racist of any color in the white house. Give me a black candidate that is qualified and i will vote for him ?her.

[ranger1948]

I ythink a lot of the young voters have been taken in by obama''s lies and chrisma. If they check the facts i think they will see he is not the right choice to lead our country. We need a leader who will lead us as one nation and bring back the respect we once had. Ind the war in Iraq and address the problems at home. Oil countries want $118 a barrell for oil, ok, lets sell them grain at $118 a bushel, and keep matching their oil prices. I think their stomachs will give in before we do.

[iamthequeen-]

Since the majority of new registrations were from Philly, it''s no surprise they went to Obama because they''re BLACK! They don''t dare say that because it''s only politically correct to point out WHITE racism but BLACK racism gets a pass, as shown by the Rev Wright incident. But voters like me read between the lines and WILL NOT support Obama until he admits the racial divide and that BLACKS are the ones that cause it. The only way I would vote for Obama is as VP for Clinton. Otherwise, I vote for McCain in 08 and Clinton in 12. And I believe there are A LOT of bitter folks like me out there that are tired of blacks getting a free ride! If that''s racist, then so be it.

[blackspirit3]

DO HILLARY RESPECT WOMEN RIGHTS????????????

A 1969 charge by a Eileen Wellstone, said Clinton assaulted her after she met him at a pub near the Oxford University campus where the future President was a student.
In 1972, a 22-year-old woman told campus police at Yale University that she was sexually assaulted by Clinton, who was a law student at the college.
In 1974, a female student at the University of Arkansas complained that then-law professor Bill Clinton groped her and forced his hand inside her blouse
Broaddrick, a volunteer in Clinton''s attorney general campaign, said he raped her in 1978;
From 1978-1980, Arkansas State troopers assigned to protect the governor reported seven complaints from women who said Clinton forced, or attempted to force, himself on them sexually.
Elizabeth Ward, the Miss Arkansas who won the Miss America crown in 1982, told friends she was forced by Clinton to have *** with him shortly after she won her state crown.
Paula Corbin, an Arkansas state worker, filed a sexual harassment case against Clinton the then-governor exposed himself and demanded oral ***.
Sandra Allen James, President Clinton invited her to his hotel room during a political trip to the nation''s capital in 1991, pinned her against the wall and stuck his hand up her dress.
Kathleen Willey, a White House volunteer, reported that Clinton grabbed her, fondled her breast and pressed her hand against his genitals during an Oval Office meeting in November, 1993.

[tucano2]

You wish!! Haven''t you yet heard of "Operation Chaos" /

[xlib]

Sure, sure, yea that''s right. Republicans are sooooo disenfrachised with the conservatives that they switch to the most liberal senator we have. Sure, sure, that''ll work. Yea, now, Repubicans love liberalism and socialism and redistribution of wealth.

Sure, sure, yea, you caught us.

IDIOTS!

[messiahx4eve]

New facts and truths are surfacing every day about Obama and people are just sick and tired of the LYING, UNDERHANDEDNESS, and TRICKERY that goes hand and hand with politics. Obama is a racist himself and he knows WE know it, black. white, whatever, it matters not. Hate is a useless waste of energy and so I minimize it by HATING ALL people straight across the board, and my reasons for racism were LEARNED by YEARS of punishment for being white. I don''t go out looking for trouble but if you want to get in my face and be a drum, I am gonna pound you, this I promise. I celebrate White Pride and am not ashamed of being so.