April 15, 2008
San Francisco Speech Might Haunt Obama
The New Republic: Senator's Remarks On Guns And Religion Could Cost Him Votes, Nomination
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Obama's Words May Cost Him
Locked in a tight race for Pennsylvania Democrats, Sen. Barack Obama's own words may cost him support. Randall Pinkston reports.
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Obama's Foot Tastes Bitter
Senators Hillary Clinton and John McCain force Sen. Barack Obama to defend his 'elitist' remarks, but their attacks receive mixed reactions. Dean Reynolds reports.
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Clinton Ad Pounces On Obama
Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign throws Obama's "bitter" comments back at him in a new ad, hoping it will help maintain her lead in Pennsylvania. Dean Reynolds reports.
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Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a presidential candidates forum on manufacturing in Pittsburgh, Monday, April 14, 2008. (AP)
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Barack Obama
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Some liberal commentators have downplayed the effect of Barack Obama's fundraising speech at a San Francisco fundraiser last week. But that's wishful thinking. Along with the revelations about Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright, his remarks in San Francisco will haunt him not only in the upcoming primaries in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, but also in the general election against John McCain, assuming he gets the Democratic nomination.
To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can't carry Florida - and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.
Some Democrats insist that Obama need not worry about these states because he will be able to make up for a defeat in Ohio or even Pennsylvania with a victory in Virginia or Colorado. But in Virginia, McCain will be able to draw upon coastal suburbanites closely tied to the military. These voters backed Democrats like Chuck Robb and Jim Webb, who are both veterans, but they may not go for Obama. And in the Southwest, McCain will be able to challenge Obama among Hispanics. So to win in November, Obama will have to win almost all of these heartland states. Which is a problem, because even before he uttered his infamous words about these voters "clinging" to guns, religion, abortion, and fears about free trade, Obama looked vulnerable in the region. A look at the white working class's relationship with earlier Democratic candidates underscores the various reasons why.
Many white working class voters in these states used to be loyal Democrats. The last two successful Democratic presidential candidates, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, swept Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and Missouri. Many of these voters have always been highly patriotic, church-going hunters who were skeptical about the benefits of trade and immigration and - what Obama did not mention - black political assertiveness. But they still distrust Republicans as the defenders of business and look up to Democrats (or at least some Democrats) as being more in tune with average Americans like themselves.
Democrats have won over these voters when their advantage on the economy has come to the fore. And they've lost these voters when their positions on the economy - or national security - were not sufficiently compelling to overcome the Republican advantage on social issues like abortion, gay marriage, or gun control. Why? Because with the exception of a few rabid single-issue voters, the white working class hasn't simply displaced its economic anxiety, or bitterness, onto God, guns, and gay marriage; they're actually quite concerned about the economy.
Historically, there are three circumstances in which Democrats have been able to win over these voters:
The Unacceptable Republican: Republicans have run candidates with whom white working class voters have not been able to identity - either because of their backgrounds, beliefs, or actions. In 2006 that was obviously true of Ohio gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell - an African American and a far right zealot - and Montana Senator Conrad Burns, who was linked to former super-lobbyist Jack Abramoff.
The Acceptable Democrat: The Democrats have sometimes run candidates in these states who are sufficiently moderate on guns, abortion, and religion to neutralize the Republican appeal on these issues. That was the case with Pennsylvania pro-life Democratic Senate candidate Bob Casey, who defeated incumbent Rick Santorum in 2006.
The Empathetic Democrat: The Democrats have run a candidate who can connect with these voters in spite of his or her beliefs on abortion and guns. Pollsters try to get at this by asking voters whether a candidate "cares about people like me." Sometimes, voters will think a candidate cares about them because they think he is "one of them." Bill Clinton, of course, was a genius at this. He could be the candidate of Hope, Arkansas, and Yale Law School. Other Democrats have succeeded because they have come off as a father (or mother) figure, who, although from the upper class, still cares about the average American.
If you look at the upcoming presidential election in this light, the Democratic prospects do not appear to be good. McCain is an acceptable Republican - a war hero and a reputed moderate. (His greatest inherent liability, which could make him unacceptable regardless of his ideas or background, is his age.) Both Democratic candidates, whatever their protestations, are seen as coming out of the party's liberal wing on guns and abortion.
That leaves the possibility that these voters will see the Democratic candidate as either "one of them," or as a father or mother figure who understands their plight. Both candidates clearly have problems on these scores, but Obama's may be even more severe than Hillary Clinton's. As an African American, he has one strike against him, as has become apparent even in the Democratic primary exit polls. He has tried to appear above race, but he will continually be reminded of his ties to Jeremiah Wright (and his not wearing a flag on his lapel, and his wife's statements about not being "proud" of America) during a general election.
Obama comes from a modest background and has tried to appeal as a candidate of both Harvard Law School and Chicago's Back-of-the-Yards, where he organized laid-off steel workers, but he hasn't been able to pull it off. His manner, his tenor, and his diction are Harvard Law, and when he starts dropping his 'g's," he sounds strained. And Obama is too young, and lacks the stature, to appear as a Franklin Roosevelt-style father figure.
Obama does have an astounding eloquence, and an ability to put a position across, but that eloquence has been reserved largely for anti-war and good-government positions. His stance against the war may resonate (though that will depend on whether McCain's qualification as commander-in-chief trumps his unpopular stance on the war). But where McCain is most vulnerable and where voters are most likely to smile on a Democrat - on everyday economic issues - Obama's heart doesn't appear to be in it.
These difficulties were clear before Obama spoke in San Francisco, but they're much more glaring now. In the speech, Obama appeared to say that Pennsylvania voters' opposition to gun control or abortion or immigration or free trade was pathological - a product of what Marxist philosopher Herbert Marcuse once called "false consciousness." On the other hand, he implied that when he voiced opposition to an issue like free trade - Obama has consistently hammered Clinton on her support for the North American Free Trade Agreement - he was simply pandering to these voters' displaced anxieties. He was saying to these upscale San Francisco Democrats, "I am really one of you, and I am not one of them."
There is even a slight chance that Obama's words in San Francisco could cost him the nomination. Obama is almost certain to have more elected delegates in June than Hillary Clinton, but if he loses Pennsylvania by 15 percentage points (which is not out of the question), that could start a media firestorm around his candidacy that could contribute to other primary defeats and to superdelegate support for Clinton. It's not likely to happen, but after Obama spoke his mind, and, perhaps, lost small-town voters' hearts, in San Francisco, it has suddenly become conceivable.
By John B. Judis
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See all 55 CommentsPosted by TawpDawg11
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TawpDawg11, I HOPE you''re not talking about Obama because the last time we looked the "southside" of Chicago, Obama''s district, is just as poverty and crime ridden as ever.
The "southside is still the badest part of town
Many Democrats simply do not want the party to make the same mistake twice by nominating another Kerry-like shallow, arrogant, platitude-spouting, gas-bag - who is so mentally deficient from extensive drug use he even has to plagiarize his hollow platitudes!.
Thanks to "uncle" jeremiah, the true nature of hussein has finally been revealed. For nearly twenty years hussein has been the disciple and avid follower and supporter of this racial bigot. hussein has publicly praised wright on numerous occasions. wright''s vile, bigoted harangues against America, in general, and white Americans, in particular, illustrate the true foundation of hussein and the "church" of which he is a devout member. The foundation of hussein is racial division and strife - not unity. If it were not for the thin veneer of whitewash slapped on him by his handlers, I would expect him to adopt wright''s "God Da''mn America" as his theme song. hussein is clearly an outrageously unacceptable candidate for any elected office or position of responsibility in America.
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Blah, blah, blah, elitist, blah blah blah. Yawn.
What a right-wing stooge.
All the primaries and caucuses we''ve been through don''t mean squat. It will come down to the superdelegates and who they believe has the best chance of winning in November. The answer to that question is becoming clear every day.
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Posted by JoeCoolSwat at 03:12 PM : Apr 15, 2008
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What are you suggesting there swastika breath? We "Stay the Course" for 4 more years? ROFLMAO By that time we should be a third world country and you can use your guns to fight off the Militants and your Religion to train your own. God are you freaky Nazi''s scary...stupid AND scary!! Sieg Heil Bush!!
The "southside is still the badest part of town
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Posted by perceptions5 at 01:06 PM : Apr 15, 2008
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You sir are a LIAR! A big fat NAZI LIAR! Live in Chicago so don''t even go there! He was a STATE Senator you pathetic fascist. He''s NOW a FEDERAL Senator.. he has NO district. GOD you freaks are slimy creatures... the worst!! Sieg Heil Bush!! Come on put on that Swastika there... let the fuhrer know you''re out here LYING just like he taught you!! SIEG HEIL MEIN FUHRER!! Good little bootlicker!!
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Posted by Xlib at 01:35 PM : Apr 15, 2008
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Oh PLEASE! Stop embarrassing yourself. YOU are nothing more than a Nazi Bootlicker, throwing mud at the wall hoping something sticks so you can keep the "Party" in power!! You freaks are so easy to see through it''s funny!! Sieg Heil Bush!! You really aren''t the sharpest tool in the old shed there are you sparky??? ROFLMAO
Posted by JoeCoolSwat
If you think so highly of freedom of religion, why do you insist on using Barack''s Muslim name, and what does it matter that his father was one. It''s ignorant peasants like you who voted Bush in the second time, you know one of the "How can 61,000,000 Americans be so dumb?.
For an opinion to have gravitas, it has to use true facts to lay out their case - Barack was referring to the people who WEREN''T voting for him. For this author to make his case, he then would have had to touch upon the issue of Democrats voting solely on Barack calling them ''bitter'' and ignoring (1) economic platforms such as free trade, job creation programs, unemployment benefits, union support (2) understanding that the war in Iraq cannot be won with more troops and 100 years, and (3) the possibility that Hillary might actually end up on the ticket as VP which would assuage core Democrats'' fears.
Otherwise the author just sounds like a biased partisan like Geraldo . . .
So the author''s speculation is basically rooted in the idea that there''s a substantial group of Democrats who at one point supported Barack who are dysfunctional to the degree that they get so wrapped up in being called to deal with truth that they will focus only on that and tune out everything else like the economy and the war and instead vote for McCain because Barack called them ''bitter'' in San Francisco. I don''t see how that group could be very big at all . . . the author and Hillary both come across as Tonya Harding political opportunist imo
Thanks, good post. Its time to roll Dem. The country needs to heal, and modern Repubs, in their policies if not their speeches, too often resemble anarchists rather than conservatives. They really DO want to destroy our federal government, and let the chips fall where they may (which means the rich move their ****s and their assets off-country, and the poor get to play a real version of ''ultimate fighter'').
Then again, being as how he hit the nail squarely on the head, (AGAIN) the headline may more accurately read:
San Francisco Speech Might Haunt Clinton, McBush
It wasn''t a speech, Sen. Obama thought he was speaking off the record, was speaking casually, but as Sen. Obama is quickly learning, nothing is off the record when it concerns him!
might???? WILL, HAS.
Meanwhile McCain gets a fluffy free, non-critical ride from this same media.
to everyone else, this is a non-issue.
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Posted by shutupNvote at 11:31 PM : Apr 15, 2008
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LOL I guess you can keep wishing huh? LOL
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Posted by olandug at 09:30 PM : Apr 15, 2008
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Yeah I know. It''s tough being a fascist these days with the fuhrer''s numbers in the tank and the economy going belly up it''s hard to get people to focus on a little hate or a wedge issue. Hang in there though, I''m sure you bottom feeders will find a way to sling some mud. Sieg Heil Bush
Obama. I just don''e see any trust in his judgments. I pray Hillary will over take him with good judgment fom the super delegets. That''s our only chance.
I don''t think Obama ever had to do that.
Posted by commonsence1
The hypocrisy of that remark kind of speaks for itself . . . like yeah you demonstrate so much more insight into a disparate group than you believe Barack to be . . . stupid . . .
I don''t think Obama ever had to do that"---
Posted by old300d
That''s an interesting insight - what''s telling is that you single Barack out for not sharing your experiences . . .
Obama has split up the Dem party ! ! ! He did what Rush could not. Stop Clinton.
Obama is going to cause McCain to win.
Stupid ? No the Dems are stupid for counting on Obama.
I am voting for the best Dem running ! McCain ! ! !
Had he ever had to use a gun to hunt food I don''t think he would have made the clinging to guns statement.
When hard times come I would rather count on my hunting rifle to find food than wait for the U.S. govt to bring me some.
Look how long they made the people in New Orleans wait for food when hard times hit !
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Posted by commonsence1 at 10:17 AM : Apr 16, 2008
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Oh I don''t think anyone who would vote for Obama is going to put the spin on that statement you folks want. Why not just come out and admit it... this is all you got, it''s the ONLY way you even have a chance! Issues?? Can''t possibably run on those, not with the Economy going belly up and the nation in a needless war so??? You have to focus on one word...ignore the MEANING of the statement and what the next President was trying to tell us... just focus on that ONE word and HOPE you can create enough hatred and fear to keep the "party" in control. SAD! Very very SAD!
Obama in ''08! Yes, WE can!
And people, one can grow up poor and/or disadvantaged and still have elitist ideas and attitudes. GET A CLUE AMERICA!!!
What he is saying is the govt is broke ! That is why the govt is not taking care of you. With your help and support I will fix the govt and then the govt will help you because you helped me fix it. Hope Hope Hope ! ! !
The truth is that he is a rookie ! ! !
We already hired a rookie and look what we got. Whose fault is it ! ! ! Ours for trusting a slick talking rookie ! ! !
Wake up ! ! !
Which makes him look more Presidential--he was honest, smart, and took a calculated risk to get what he wanted.
That''s not what I read. And he''s not smart, he''s also a liar.
WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
The question is how bad, he will never be President because he spoke from his heart and displayed his pathology of Entitled Paranoid Victim logy that he learned over the twenty years at Rev Wrights knee against the Evil Empire or the whatever bogeyman needed to create fear so he can be the imagine remedy. POOF all gone.
yep you are consistent in denying every fact! Obama moving up on Clinton is on the front page of the big papers. Sen. Obama is obviously more than smart--brilliant and yet not out of touch. As for your "liar" label, you would need some proof beyond your strange dislike.
You are trying to compare Barack to Bush?! Too funny--yeah you go with that, I want to see how that unfolds. Start with their public speaking... that should be fun. Or how about their background and path to power...
Both of their speaking styles are straight out of church ! ! !
Bush was all about hope and change too. We got what we voted for ! ! !
One is a big city lawyer the other a big city oil man ! Both talked like they are the change we need and both not wise in the ways of Washington ! ! !
Much in common.
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